June, 2015

Chapter Three Recap

Players of the Chapter

Michael Brantley led the Ozzie League in batting average (.402), OBP (.441), and runs created (24.3) in Chapter Three. And now, thanks to Ryan, the Chapter Three Hitter of the Chapter is now a member of the winningest team in the BDBL. If you happen to be walking behind me, could you please do me a favor and remove that knife? Thanks.

Just to stick with this theme, let's take "Players of the Chapter Traded in Chapter Three" for $500, Alex. The answer: Jayson Werth. Werth led the EL in runs created in Chapter Three, with 26.7. He hit a robust .358/.440/.653 for the chapter, and now, thanks to DJ Sheppard, is the newest member of the New Milford Blazers lineup. Yet another example of Reverse Karma.

On the pitching side...oh, hell, let's just stick with the theme, shall we? Alex, I'll take the same category for $1,000. The answer: Garrett Richards. Richards is our Chapter Three Pitcher of the Chapter after leading the Ozzie League in ERA (1.58), opponent batting average (.200) and opponent slugging (.236). He went 4-1 for the Confederates in Chapter Three, but thanks to new owner Rodney Wilkie, he will now be hurling for the Niagara Locks for the remainder of the season.

Should we stay in this category, or go off-script? Well, if it weren't for the fact that DJ used up nearly his entire season's allotment of VORP by stockpiling the Blazers' roster, we may have gone a perfect four-for-four this chapter. Alas, Sheppard had no choice but to keep Carlos Carrasco on his roster. Carrasco went 4-1 last chapter, with a 1.67 ERA, and an opponent's line of .170/.194/.296. He is your EL Pitcher of the Chapter.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: That Fucking Akron-New Milford Trade

With all apologies to Mr. Ed, it's time to beat a dead horse. I will admit that there have been rare occasions over the years when I ranted and raved about a trade in its immediate aftermath, only to realize a little later that the deal wasn't quite as bad as I initially thought it was. Well, it's been a few weeks since the Akron-New Milford deal, and it doesn't smell any better now than it did when it was announced.

I have tried to find a similar trade in league history for comparison, and I don't believe that any such trade exists. Has any team ever sacrificed two 800+ OPS batters and a sub-600 OPS closer in exchange for a bunch of prospects -- none of whom appeared among the top 100 ranking in that year's Farm Report? If so, I can't recall.

Now, in the interest of fairness, I have to point out that I've been wrong about some of DJ's prospects before. In particular, he seems to have an uncanny ability to identify future all-star shortstops who resemble slap-hitting utility infielders in the minors. Namely, I have been wrong about Jhonny Peralta and Asdrubal Cabrera, and the similarity between their minor league careers and Orlando Arcia's is notable:

Maybe DJ has just acquired another Peralta or Cabrera, and will have the last laugh at the end of the day. But to me, the reason why these types of sleeper prospects are so valuable is because they are so cheap to acquire. You can usually pick them up late in a draft, or by trading a player with little present value. If you have to trade two all-star bats and a closer to acquire one, then what's the point?

What's done is done, and the trade will now live in BDBL legend or infamy, whichever the case may be. The immediate impact is that the Blazers have now added two high-impact, full-time bats to their lineup, against both lefties and righties, and a lights-out closer. This fixes both of New Milford's most pressing issues this season: usage and bullpen weakness.

The Blazers are sporting a .613 winning percentage at the halfway point of the season, despite outscoring their opponents by just 31 runs. This is partly due to the fact that they have played in a remarkable SEVENTEEN extra-inning games this season, and have won an even more remarkable twelve of those games. Thanks to this trade, they will likely have no problem maintaining their .600+ winning percentage through the second half of the season.

Story #2: The Midseason Draft

Once upon a time, before that meddling Jeff Paulson ruined everything, we allowed teams to draft players for their farm roster at the end of every chapter. Those were the days when the internet was still relatively young, and sources of information on minor leaguers, amateurs, and foreign ballplayers were relatively scarce. In other words, those were the days when teams who really paid attention to such things enjoyed a huge advantage over their competition.

Check out this partial list of players who were selected as farm players in what would now be an "off" transactional period: Eric Gagne, Josh Hamilton, Mark Teixeira, Joe Nathan, and Tim Hudson. And that is only the 1999 season!

Today, every team has access to the same information, and that early advantage has disappeared. That doesn't mean, however, that some teams aren't better than others at identifying and drafting young talent.

Among the players who were selected as free agents last year at this time, Jacob deGrom, David Peralta, Roenis Elias, Matt Shoemaker, Kevin Quackenbush, Kevin Kiermaier, and Danny Santana have already made an impact in the BDBL. Michael Taylor, Kyle Schwarber, Brock Holt, Steven Souza, and Carson Fulmer were also selected in that draft.

Believe it or not, despite all of that great value in one draft class, the #1 overall pick in the draft was Michael Chavis (by Jim Doyle.) Raimel Tapia and Mike Matuella followed. deGrom wasn't selected until the second round! Kiermaier, Shoemaker, and Peralta were also selected in that round. Quackenbush (who ended the MLB season with a 2.48 ERA in 54+ innings, and 512/633 splits) wasn't drafted until Round Five. And the players released in that period included Phil Bickford, Bubba Starling, Danny Salazar, Chris Coghlan, Max Kepler, Logan Forsythe, and the Great Orlando Arcia.

So, who are the players just selected in this year's midseason farm draft who are most likely to become the next Jacob deGrom or Danny Santana? That list seems to begin and end with the Ravenswood Infidels, who made the steal of the first round with their selection of Chad Bettis, and then added Matt Capps with their second round pick. Bettis' MLB numbers so far this year (38+ IP, 34 H, 0 HR, 11 BB, 33 K, 3.05 ERA) look somewhat similar to deGrom's after his first six starts last year: 36+ IP, 30 H, 5 HR, 16 BB, 32 K, 3.44 ERA. The difference is that Bettis pitches in Colorado, so his BDBL numbers will be even better if he can keep this pace.

Wandy Rodriguez, oddly enough the 22nd selection in this year's draft (by SoCal), has also compiled some stellar numbers in MLB (59+ IP, 3.03 ERA), and could make an immediate impact next year. Flagstaff's Round Two pick, Mike Pelfrey (70+ IP, 3.18 ERA) has more MLB innings under his belt than any other player chosen in this draft, but given his track record, and the fact that he was hammered in his last outing, it seems unlikely that he'll remain a valuable commodity through the end of this season. Bear Country's third-round selection of Williams Perez (33+ IP, 2.70 ERA) is the only other player chosen (that I can see) that may have some value next year as a starting pitcher, although Cleveland's first round pick, Mike Montgomery, could emerge in the second half.

There were countless relief pitchers with potential BDBL 2016 value selected in this draft, including Capps, Michael Blazek, Jose Alvarez, Keone Kela, Liam Hendricks, and Chad Roe (all selected in the first two rounds.) On the offensive side, Joey Butler (.339/.369/.516 in 130 PA), Ben Paulsen (.295/.345/.590 in 84 PA), and Mark Canha (.247/.319/.432, 955 OPS vs. RH in 182 PA) could blossom into the next David Peralta or Danny Santana if they continue their present pace.

As for the farm players selected, the league gutted the minor leagues, the Latin American market, the Cuban market, college baseball, and high school baseball, as we always do. As usual, Bobby traded for the first pick in the draft, giving him two out of the first three picks. He attempted to corner the Cuban market by selecting someone named Eddie Julio Martinez with the #1 overall pick, and the younger Gourriel brother with his second pick. Fellow Cuban defectors Yadier Alvarez and Vladimir Guerrero were also taken off the board.

Any remaining names from the recently-completed MLB amateur draft that were not already claimed have been erased from the board as well, with Cornelius Randolph (BCJ), Dillon Tate (GSL), Andrew Benintendi (CHI), Garrett Whitley (KCB), Preston Tucker (COR), Tyler Stephenson (CHI), Tyler Jay (COR), Josh Naylor (GLS), James Kaprielian (COR), and Nick Plummer (COR) all making their first appearances on a BDBL roster.

The MLB Class of 2016 was also decimated in this draft: Blake Rutherford, Nick Banks, A.J. Puk, Alec Hanson, and Connor Jones. Even a couple of names from the Class of 2017 are now taken: J.J. Schwarz and J.B. Bukauskas.

As this league gets older, it becomes more and more evident that if you want to acquire the best talent for your farm club, you have to roll the dice earlier and earlier, and take more and more risks.

Story #3: Chicago Revival

Last month, the Chicago Black Sox were both sellers and cellar-dwellers. Six weeks ago on this page, I wrote that the Hrbek Division had become a two-team race, thanks to both Chicago and Akron dropping out of the race. But in the middle of his big sell-off, Chicago GM John Gill had a change of heart. The Black Sox went 13-11 this chapter, prompting Gill to become a buyer.

On May 29th, he pulled the trigger on a deal that sent Prince Fielder packing to the Bear Country Jamboree in exchange for Miguel Cabrera. Fielder was just taking up a $6 million spot on the roster for Chicago, but is enjoying a tremendous comeback season in MLB, where he is on pace to post career-high numbers (.356/.414/.547). Swapping his MVP bat for a three-chapter rental is a huge risk, but one that Gill has never been afraid to take.

Ordinarily, adding Miguel Cabrera to your lineup wouldn't be considered risky, but the big man is hitting just .238/.313/.437 for the Jamboree, which is a huge downgrade from Chicago's present third baseman, Chris Johnson (.394/.420/.553 in 94 AB.) Of course, Johnson (who hit .263/.292/.361 in MLB) isn't likely to keep that pace, while Cabrera is highly likely to bust out of his slump at some point.

The best-case scenario would include a huge spike in Cabrera's performance, where he would create upwards of 60 runs in the second half. This would likely represent a 30-run increase over Johnson's performance, which roughly translates to three extra wins. At present time, the Black Sox are a dozen games out of first place, and seven games back in the wild card race. They will need more than Cabrera to make up that ground over the next 80 games.

Story #4: That Fucking Brantley Trade

That sound you hear is me banging my head on the desk as I remind myself of the trade my dear son made on May 17th. Just in case you've blocked it from your memory, on that day, Ryan sent MVP-caliber impact player Michael Brantley to the Los Altos Undertakers in exchange for Dilson Herrera and someone named Sam Freeman.

As with all trades of this type, the justification for this deal won't be known until years from now, when Herrera will or will not be posting MVP-caliber numbers himself. For now, we can only deal with what we know, which is that Brantley gives the Undertakers yet another MVP bat in the middle (or beginning or end) of their lineup, which is already overflowing with MVP candidates.

As I type, Los Altos is on pace to win 108 games this season. They lead the entire BDBL in runs scored (by 30!), on-base percentage, slugging percentage, doubles, walks, runs created, RC/27, OPS vs. lefties, and OPS vs. righties. And all of that is true BEFORE adding Michael Brantley to the mix.

On the season, Brantley is hitting .323/.375/.474, with a robust .355/.405/.539 line against right-handers. Presumably, he will take over in center field for Kevin Kiermaier, who was "only" hitting .269/.348/.503 against righties. Clearly, Jeff Paulson cannot tolerate such a slacker taking up space on his lineup card!

The Undertakers are so ridiculously stacked, they now have FOUR all-star bats in the outfield: Jose Bautista, Matt Holliday, Jason Heyward, and Brantley. That means one of those guys -- who would occupy an everyday spot in the middle of any other lineup in the BDBL -- will be riding the pine. Un-fucking-believable.

As our highly-accomplished former Secretary of State and future president so honorably shrieked, "What difference, at this point, does it make?" If there were ever any question that the Undertakers were the favorites to win it all in 2015, this trade puts that question to rest forever. No matter how much humblebragging Paulson does, and no matter how many "aw, shucks" comments he delivers, the Undertakers are now fated to either become the 2015 BDBL champions or one of the greatest failures in BDBL history. Best of luck to them.

Story #5: The Great Granite State Reconstruction, v.2015

Ryan Glander took over the Lightning franchise during the winter of 2011. He wasted no time dismantling the team, and announced four major trades while the Atlanta Fire Ants fans were still celebrating in the streets. He made four more trades before the end of the winter, two more before Opening Day, and six more during the season. By the time he was done, there were hardly any original members of his franchise remaining (aside from the ever-present Pat Venditte.) The result was a record-shattering 120 losses in the 2012 season.

Despite losing so many games, Ryan earned five votes for OL GM of the Year that winter. Why? Because as a result of all his trading, drafting, and free agent signing, he had miraculously crafted a competitive team for the 2013 season. Granite State stayed in the race from beginning to end that season, and just missed the OL wild card by two games.

After wheeling-and-dealing his way through another winter, Ryan's confidence was high heading into the 2014 season, but the Lightning got off to a slow start, and he pulled an early trigger on yet another sell-off. The end result was another 100+ loss season.

Once again, confidence was high in the Granite State front office heading into this season. Once again, the Lightning got off to a slow and disappointing start. And once again, Ryan has pulled the trigger on waving the white flag. For the second year in a row, he managed to trade away exactly 100 VORP, and is now done trading for the season.

What did he get from all that wheeling and dealing? Let's start with Shelby Miller, who came at the expense of Johnny Cueto. Miller (1.84 ERA, 78 IP, 52 H, 4 HR, 25 BB, 57 K) is having a phenomenal season in MLB, and at only $1.1 million in salary, he will be $7.4 million less expensive than Cueto next year. Combined with Sonny Gray (1.74 ERA, 88 IP, 62 H, 4 HR, 22 BB, 79 K), the Lightning now have two extremely talented and extremely cheap starters in their 2016 rotation.

Granite State also picked up a couple of cheap relievers in Evan Scribner (32+ IP, 2.78 ERA, 562/614 splits) and Chasen Shreve (25 IP, 2.16 ERA, 828/461). Sam Freeman is currently sporting a 6.23 ERA in just 8 2/3 innings, so I don't even know why he was included in that disastrous Los Altos deal.

And then there is Dilson Herrera, owner of the MLB career .226/.301/.387 batting line. But hey, he's still just 21 years old, so let's give him a break.

All in all, the Lightning are once again positioning themselves to compete in 2016. With the free agent Class of 2016 expected to be among the best ever, Granite State is well-positioned to add several impact players through free agency. Combined with that front two in the starting rotation, they could finally make it to the post-season. Or, Peburn could put together another team full of ridiculous bench players, pinch hitters, and middle relievers, and dominate the division as usual. Who knows?

Story #6: Make That SEVEN in a Row

Yes, for the SEVENTH year in a row, the Eck League came out on top of the Ozzie League in interleague play:

This was supposed to be the year that bucked the trend. Even longtime EL cheerleader Tom DiStefano went on record as saying that this might be the year the OL finally gets the best of their EL rivals. But alas, we fell just short. Again.

I don't want to point any fingers, but...

Yes, you're reading that correctly: the worst SIX teams in interleague play over that seven year period are all Ozzie League teams. If we ever want to do another round of realignment to balance the leagues a little better, that chart above could play a guiding role. From the looks of it, we could simply place the entire Higuera Division in the OL, and the entire Benes Division in the EL, and that alone would shift the balance of the league:

Just sayin'.

Story #7: Meet the New Niagara Locks

No team in the BDBL has transformed themselves more during the course of this season than the Niagara Locks. Thanks to a pair of trades made by GM Mike Ranney this past chapter, the Locks in the second half of this season will hardly resemble the Locks of the first half. I can't recall another team in BDBL history that added two Cy Young candidates to their starting rotation during the season, and yet that is just what Ranney accomplished last chapter.

Basically, this team's ace in the first half has now become their third-best pitcher. And Tillman, who would be the ace for many teams in the BDBL, is now the Locks' #4 pitcher in the playoffs.

The Eck League wild card race is shaping up to be one of the more interesting potential storylines of the second half. Thanks to a 15-9 record in Chapter Three, which includes a 12-4 record in interleague play, the Charlotte Mustangs have taken the lead in that race, and own a three-game cushion. Unfortunately for them, they don't have the Benes Division to kick around anymore.

The Wyoming Ridgebacks attempted to wave the white flag early last chapter, but discovered that the market for their top player wasn't what they had hoped. So they removed the white flag and went all-in with a flurry of five trades that resulted in a completely overhauled bullpen and two more inning-eaters in their rotation. They sit three games behind in the wild card race, tied with the Locks.

Akron is now four games behind in that race, thanks to their 15-9 showing in Chapter Three. Unfortunately, DJ Sheppard threw in the towel and traded his entire roster to the New Milford Blazers, so the Ryche are now out of that race.

The Niagara Locks have just raised the stakes of this game. Who will see that raise, and who will fold, will be interesting to watch.

Story #8: Cleveland Finally Gets an Offense

In my 2015 Season Preview, I predicted the Rocks would finish in last place in the Hrbek Division, mainly because "the Rocks have the worst offense in the Eck League. Period." Shockingly, that "worst offense in the Eck League" has managed to score a respectable 324 runs so far this season -- the exact middle of the pack in the EL.

How is that possible? One contributing factor is the team's Chapter Two addition of Torii Hunter. Since that trade, Hunter is hitting an astounding .321/.357/.505 for Cleveland, with 6 homers, 27 runs, 34 RBI's, and 32.6 runs created in only 50 games. He has practically carried this team on his back, despite his rather mediocre (.286/.319/.446) MLB numbers last season.

Jose Reyes (.310/.357/.446 in the BDBL) is also far outpacing his MLB numbers (.287/.328/.398), and leads the team in runs created. No other hitter on the Cleveland roster with more than 90 PA's has an OPS above .735!

No one ever doubted Cleveland's pitching staff. On paper, they appeared to have the best starting rotation in the BDBL heading into this season, and their performance has matched expectations. Corey Kluber (11-3, 1.89 ERA) is on his way to winning the EL Cy Young award, and Jacob deGrom (5-4, 2.90), Jake Arrieta (5-3, 3.01), Tim Hudson (8-7, 3.83), and Hiroki Kuroda (7-7, 4.00) have all been steady performers.

The main issue holding Cleveland back from a serious shot at winning the division has been their offense, and GM Mike Stein made some bold moves in Chapter Two to correct that issue. At-bat for at-bat, Jorge Soler should have been Cleveland's best hitter on their roster this season. He hit .292/.330/.573 in MLB last year, but was severely limited in usage (with just 97 PA's). He was also this team's best trade bait. Any potential deal that would add the offensive firepower needed for Cleveland to contend would have to include Soler, it seemed.

On June 13th, just hours before the trading deadline, Stein pulled the trigger. He went "#allin" and spent his biggest trading chip, and put it all on the line for...well...let's take a look:

Yuck. We can set aside BDBL performance and chalk it up to unfavorable ballpark factors, bad luck, bad managing, or any of the other excuses that are commonly used to explain such poor performance. Even if we use the MLB numbers as our baseline, these three players don't look as though they will be the solutions to Cleveland's (or anyone's) problems.

Cleveland's greatest reason for optimism, at this point, is that the only team in their division who seems to want to challenge them is currently a dozen games behind them in the standings. The Charlotte Mustangs own the same runs differential as the New Milford Blazers, and currently own the top spot in the EL wild card, but GM Tony Chamra hasn't made a trade yet this season. Perhaps he's waiting until the final deadline before deciding his big move(s), or perhaps he's content to ride it out with what he has, and let the chips fall where they may.

Akron has already thrown in the towel, despite their .512 winning percentage, as they're more focused on building the back end of their farm roster than competing in the near future. That leaves Chicago, whose GM is still fighting the good fight, despite his team sitting four games below .500 and a dozen games out of the division race.

As with whoever wins the Benes Division, the Rocks could win this division simply through a process of elimination. In both divisions, it isn't a matter of which team is best, but which team is least bad.