March, 2015

2015 BDBL Farm Report

Welcome to the sixteenth annual BDBL Farm Report. Not a lot has changed in the past year. The Apostles' farm is still utterly ridiculous, and the top three farm clubs haven't changed. The Big River Beavers, KC Boulevards, Charlotte Mustangs, and Mississippi Meatballs have all made drastic improvements to their farms, and the New York Giants, Great Lakes Sphinx, and Bear Country Jamboree farms have all slid backwards.

You all should know how this works by now, but I'll explain it anyway. I collect top prospect lists from a variety of sources that I call our "expert panel." I assign 100 points to the top player on each list, 99 points to the #2 ranked player, and so on, down to one point for the player ranked at #100. I then tally all the points to create one master list. This year, our expert panel consists of Kiley McDaniel from FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, and Baseball America.

With that, here is your 2015 farm ranking:

#1 St. Louis Apostles
Ranked prospects: Lucas Giolito (6), Carlos Rodon (16), Daniel Norris (20), David Dahl (26), J.O. Berrios (28), Andrew Heaney (31), Jorge Alfaro (40), Aaron Blair (47), Nomar Mazara (48), Kohl Stewart (54), Tim Anderson (59), Rusney Castillo (82), Michael Lorenzen (101), Yasmany Tomas (104), Marcos Molina (129)
Unranked prospects: Yoan Moncada, Kenta Maeda, Mike Matuella

The BDBL allows for a farm roster of fifteen players...and the Apostles have fifteen ranked farm players. Don't worry, though, Apostles opponents. St. Louis had TWENTY ranked prospects a year ago, so this farm team is growing weaker.

This is how strong the St. Louis farm system is. Their #1 prospect from last year, Oscar Taveras, tragically died in an auto accident. Their #2 prospect from last year, Miguel Sano, was traded this winter, along with Travis d'Arnaud (#33 last year), Clint Frazier (#41) and others. Nick Castellanos (#25 last year), Carlos Martinez (#61), Jose Abreu (#72), Rafael Montero (#82), and Trevor Bauer (#91) all graduated to the Major Leagues. All of these losses would have decimated any other farm system in the BDBL. But not only are the Apostles still ranked #1, but their accumulated points total is nearly 1,000 more than the #2 team.

Giolito is a consensus top-10 prospect according to all four of our experts this year. He dominated in his first year of full-season professional ball, racking up a 28/110 BB/K ratio in 98 innings at the Low-A level as a 19-year-old. He now owns a career ERA of 2.17 in 136+ innings of minor league ball. Rodon was listed in the top 15 by three of the experts in our panel, but for some inexplicable reason, Baseball Prospectus listed him all the way down at #41 -- twenty-six spots lower than any of the other three.

BP was also the only outlet that ranked Norris below #18, as they listed him at #34. Norris has already seen MLB action, and Rodon will undoubtedly join him this season, meaning St. Louis will lose two more of its top-ranked prospects to graduation. (But, of course, that's the whole point, isn't it?)

No BDBL team should ever need more good, young, quality, potential-ace pitching than Giolito, Rodon and Norris, but the Apostles also have Berrios, Heaney, Blair, Stewart, Lorenzen, and Molina among their ranked prospects on the farm. And another pitcher, Maeda, would likely be a top-50 prospect (if not top-30) if he had made the jump to the US this winter. That gives St. Louis TEN top young arms in addition to Trevor Bauer, Tony Cingrani, Kevin Gausman, Rafael Montero, Carlos Martinez, Jimmy Nelson, Jarrod Parker, and Michael Wacha -- all age 26 or younger. But, hey, don't worry, guys. They can only use four of them in any given series.

Offensively, the Apostles' farm isn't quite as strong as its pitching. Still, any team in the league would jump at the chance to add Dahl to their farm club. In his 196 game minor league career, Dahl has posted a .325/.364/.534 batting line. Alfaro, Mazara and Anderson are all quality hitting prospects as well.

Then, there are the Cubans. Baseball America was the only outlet that ranked Castillo for some reason, and they ranked him at #21. BA was also the only expert in our panel to rank Tomas, who came in at #57. And no one ranked Moncada, who just may be the brightest hitting prospect on the Apostles farm right now. In their MLB Network special, the folks at Baseball America ranked Moncada at #10, and McDaniel has written that he would have ranked Moncada in the top five. In other words, if every expert in our panel had ranked all three Cubans, the Apostles would likely own two more top-25 prospects, and another in the top 60. Way to ruin the BDBL, BDBL!

#2 Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Cory Seager (5), Joc Pederson (11), J.P. Crawford (17), Alex Jackson (26), Aaron Sanchez (35), Sean Manaea (67), Alex Reyes (72), Dilson Herrera (85)
Unranked prospects: Dazmon Cameron, Jose Fernandez, Alonzo Jones, Brendan Rodgers, Kolby Allard, Jose DeLeon, Zach Lee

The Undertakers franchise has a rich tradition of pitching, but it is the hitting prospects who rule the current Los Altos farm club. Seager is ranked among the top ten by all four of our panel of experts. He owns a career batting line of .313/.380/.541, and excelled at the Double-A level as a twenty year old last year. He led the minors in both batting average (.349) and doubles (50), and projects to hit for both average and power in the big leagues. Like nearly every highly-ranked minor league shortstop that can hit, scouts feel he will eventually move to another position because of his size.

Pederson is another Dodgers prospect who not only hits for average and power, but can also steal bases. Last year, he became the first player in 80 years to hit 30 homers and steal 30 bases at the Triple-A level. With the trade of Matt Kemp, Pederson could begin his rookie season in the BDBL next year. Crawford is a shortstop with dazzling defensive skills, who can hit for average and steal bases. And Jackson is a raw talent who was drafted #6 overall in the MLB Amateur Draft. Originally a catcher, he was moved to the outfield in a decision I continually question whenever MLB teams make it (which is all too often.) He has an advanced bat, and power at the top of the scale, but it's more scouting than performance with him so far.

After Jackson, the Undertakers' next three rated prospects are all pitchers. The scouting reports for all three are so similar, it's impossible to distinguish between them: "Tall, projectable, power arm, fastball sits at 91-95, touching 98, plus secondary pitch and improving third pitch, yada, yada, yada."

As always, Paulson went nuts in the Farm Draft this winter, and added a bunch of pimply-faced high school kids to restock the lower end of his farm for future domination in the Farm Report. Alonzo Jones is a short, stocky, middle infielder who is expected to be drafted early in June. Cameron and Rodgers have both topped the list of 2015 high school prospects at one time or another, although those lists change on a minute-by-minute basis. Allard is a power left-handed pitcher, and like the others, is also among the top prospects in the June draft.

#3 Niagara Locks
Ranked prospects: Byron Buxton (1), Tyler Glasnow (13), Archie Bradley (19), Robert Stephenson (21), Raul Mondesi (32), Kyle Zimmer (84), Ryan McMahon (102), Domingo Santana (112)
Unranked prospects: Lewis Brinson, Gabriel Guerrero, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Kevin Maitan, Leonardo Molina, Miguel Castro, Michael Feliz

Despite missing most of last season with an injury, and hitting just .240/.313/.405 in 30 games at the High-A level, Buxton is the #1 prospect in baseball for the second year in a row. He was ranked among the top two by all four of our panel of experts. Glasnow has been among the best strikeout pitchers in minor league baseball over the past two years, which bodes well for his future. In 274 career innings (basically, one full season, back in the day), he has posted a 1.94 ERA, with only 151 hits and 15 homers allowed, and 365 strikeouts (an average of twelve per nine.) The only blemish on his record is 135 career walks, which averages to nearly 4.5 per nine.

It's hard to believe Archie Bradley is the second-best pitching prospect on any team, given the way he began his career, and where he stood among baseball's pitching prospects only a year ago. Unfortunately, he took a step backward last year. He dealt with elbow problems early in the season, and wasn't his usual dominant self when he returned. He is still a premier pitching prospect, but some now question how good he will be.

Like Glasnow, Stephenson has had his share of control issues, which blunts the enthusiasm generated by his electric arm. He seemed to make progress with his control in 2013, but then took a step backward last year, allowing 74 walks in 136+ innings (nearly five per nine.) Rounding out the "TINSTAAPP Four" is Zimmer, who has the pedigree, stuff, and ability to be a MLB ace, but just can't seem to stay healthy. His highest ranking was #58 (by MLB.com). He barely made the Fangraphs top-100 at #94, and Baseball Prospectus didn't rank him at all.

This winter, Niagara GM Mike Ranney took Jeff Paulson's age-old strategy of drafting teenagers and amped it up a notch. The success rate of projecting big league success for 14- and 15-year-olds is almost nonexistent. There is Bryce Harper, Justin Upton, and...that's about it. But Ranney used a lot of draft picks this winter on kids who are a year or two away from being old enough to drive in the United States -- never mind play Major League Baseball. Maitan -- only 14 years old -- may be the youngest player ever drafted in the BDBL. Then again, you have to consider Ranney's track record. He drafted both Jurickson Profar and Carlos Martinez at age sixteen, so maybe he knows something the rest of the baseball world doesn't.

#4 Big River Beavers
Ranked prospects: Carlos Correa (4), Jesse Winker (32), Aaron Nola (38), Austin Meadows (44), Nick Gordon (52), Brandon Finnegan (65), Marco Gonzales (70), Stephen Piscotty (71), Kyle Freeland (78), Nick Williams (112), Max Pentecost (124)
Unranked prospects: Jorge Bonifacio, Cheslor Cuthbert, Rosell Herrera, Lance McCullers, Roberto Osuna, Ben Wells

The last time this franchise owned a top ten farm system, George W. Bush was still living in the White House. Beavers fans have the Salem Cowtippers to thank for their current ranking. Four of this team's top five prospects, and five of their top eight, came from the Salem organization through trades. Correa (who came to Big River, along with Meadows, in the 2012 deal involving Yovani Gallardo and Dan Hudson) is a consensus top five prospect who posted a 926 OPS at the High-A level as a 19-year-old. He is this franchise's highest ranked prospect since Andy Marte. (How's that for damning with faint praise?)

Winker posted a 1006 OPS playing in the same league as Correa, but is a year older. As a lefty with decent power and good plate discipline, he's drawn comparisons to John Olerud, Paul O'Neil and Tino Martinez. Both Nola and Piscotty came to Big River this winter in the Huston Street deal. Nola was the seventh overall selection in last June's MLB Amateur Draft, and is an advanced pitcher who should move quickly toward becoming a mid-rotation starter in the big leagues. Piscotty was ranked as high as #32 (by Baseball Prospectus) despite a somewhat disappointing season last year. After posting an 800+ OPS at three different levels, the 23-year-old hit .288/.355/.406 in his first exposure to Triple-A pitching.

The ninth overall pick in the 2013 MLB draft, Meadows has racked up just 341 at-bats in the minor leagues so far, and owns an impressive .317/.410/.522 batting line. Gordon, who came over in the Francisco Liriano deal last summer, was ranked the #2 prospect in the Appalachian League by Baseball America. Like Correa, Nola, and Meadows, he was a top five pick in the MLB Amateur Draft.

Finnegan, the 17th overall pick in last year's MLB draft, was the first player from that class to reach the Major Leagues. Being a left-handed reliever is an excellent way to accomplish that feat. Another lefty pitcher, Gonzales, also had a cup of coffee last year. And just to add to their collection, Freeland is yet another lefty, and yet another player who was selected among the top ten picks in the 2014 MLB draft.

#5 Kansas City Boulevards
Ranked prospects: Braden Shipley (24), Luis Severino (25), Hunter Harvey (34), Jose Peraza (49), Reynaldo Lopez (69), Vince Velasquez (87), Raimel Tapia (91), Touki Toussaint (109)
Unranked prospects: Aristedes Aquino, Braxton Davidson, Eloy Jimenez, Renato Nunez, Nathan Kirby, Justin Nicolino, Dillon Overton

The Farm Director for the Boulevards has no doubt added Jim Doyle to his Christmas card list, given that this team's top two prospects -- both top-25 prospects overall -- came to the Boulevards in one dubious trade with the Giants announced just nine days into the season. Shipley, the 15th overall pick in the 2013 MLB draft, has ace potential, and should move quickly up the ladder.

When Doyle selected Severino with the #2 overall pick in this year's Farm Draft, many of us wondered if he had traded that pick, since it seemed so "un-Doyle-like." Well, it turned out he did trade that pick...only five weeks later. Severino seemed to come out of nowhere last year. The fact that he managed to sneak past all twenty four owners in the BDBL in both the pre-season and mid-season farm drafts last year indicates how low he was flying under the radar. In 221+ career minor league innings, he now owns a BB/K ratio of 54/225 and a 2.23 ERA. Wow.

There is no shortage of pitching prospects on this KC team, as Velasquez, Harvey, Lopez and Touissant are all highly-regarded arms. Of that group, Harvey has posted the most impressive numbers, with 139 K's in 113 career innings (an average of more than eleven per nine.)

#6 South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked prospects: Julio Urias (8), Blake Swihart (13), Michael Taylor (51), Maikel Franco (55), Ozhaino Albies (87), Mike Foltynewicz (99), Chance Sisco (115)
Unranked prospects: Delino DeShields, Tony Kemp, Patrick Kivlehan, Julian Leon, Taylor Lindsey, A.J. Reed, Devon Travis, Richard Urena, Mike Yastrzemski, Justin Garza, Ben Lively

For some reason, when you think of BDBL franchises with great farm systems, the Sea Cats don't immediately come to mind. Yet, for the twelfth time in the sixteen years of BDBL Farm Reports, the South Carolina farm is ranked among the top ten. The Sea Cats have an average rank in this report of 7.1, which is the second-best ranking in the league, behind Los Altos.

Tony DeCastro's pre-season deal with Salem netted Urias, who is the second highest-ranked pitcher in this year's report, behind Lucas Giolito. Not since Felix Hernandez has a pitcher as young as Urias enjoyed so much success against such advanced competition. Pitching the entire season at the High-A level last year, he fanned 109 batters in just 87+ innings. In his brief career, he owns a 2.41 ERA in 142 innings.

Back in 2013, Anthony Peburn released Swihart to make room on his roster for Jason Marquis. In last year's Farm Draft, DeCastro swooped up Swihart with the tenth overall pick. A year later, Swihart is sitting on the bubble of the top ten. He would likely be a top-ranked prospect based on his defense alone. After hitting .300/.353/.487 at Double-A last year, his bat has become an asset as well.

Taylor, who came to South Carolina in the big Adam LaRoche deal with Satan-- err, Peburn, last winter, is a classic toolsy, athletic center fielder who swings from his heels. If everything falls into place, he could be another Mike Cameron. Or he could be another Lastings Milledge or Cameron Maybin. That's how it goes with players like Taylor. Travis was also included in that LaRoche deal, but none of our four experts thought enough of him to rank him among the top 100.

#7 Charlotte Mustangs
Ranked prospects: Addison Russell (3), Eddie Butler (44), Kevin Plawecki (56), C.J. Edwards (58), Manuel Margot (63), Daniel Robertson (76), Brandon Drury (118), Joe Ross (128)
Unranked prospects: Dariel Alvarez, Michael Gettys, Ronald Washington, Clayton Blackburn, Brent Honeywell, Shohei Ohtani

Yet another team that benefitted from the Johnny Appleseed of the BDBL, the Mustangs owe their #7 ranking to the generosity of Mr. Appleseed, who traded Russell to the then-Fire Ants in a 2012 trade involving Sean Marshall, Carlos Pena and Justin Smoak. Russell was ranked among the top five by all four experts, and with good reason. He owns an incredible 901 career OPS in 917 at-bats, and is still not old enough to legally drink. All he needs now is for Starlin Castro to get out of his way at the MLB level.

Butler's strikeout rate plummeted below six per nine last year, which explains why he fell from #23 to #44 in the ranking. Robertson's stock also seemed to take a hit, as scouts realized that his range isn't good enough for shortstop. He will likely move to second base, where he has the potential to post numbers similar to Ben Zobrist, for whom he was just traded at the MLB level.

The most interesting name on the unranked list is Washington, who was one of many barely-pubescent teenagers drafted by BDBL teams this winter. Just 15 years old, Washington is younger than the BDBL itself, and won't be eligible for the MLB draft until 2017. Yes, this league has officially become ridiculous.

#8 Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Miguel Sano (12), Kyle Schwarber (35), D.J. Peterson (59), Austin Hedges (68), Franklin Barreto (82), Pierce Johnson (117), Tyrone Taylor (124), Derek Hill (129), Rob Kaminsky (131)
Unranked prospects: Franklin Barreto, Trenton Clark, Phillip Ervin, Casey Gillaspie, Mitch Haniger, Bradley Zimmer, Paul Blackburn

Chicago's top prospect missed the entire 2014 season with Tommy John surgery. Despite that, he dropped in the ranking only five spots. Now reportedly weighing in at 240 bills, Sano is no longer a shortstop, and may be outgrowing third base as well. He has significantly less value as a first baseman, so that is a cause for concern (and no doubt a factor in why Bobby Sylvester traded him this winter.)

Schwarber came over with Sano in that winter trade that sent Yasiel Puig and Starlin Castro to St. Louis. Like Sano, Schwarber is a big guy (6'0"/235), and there are some doubts as to whether he will remain behind the plate or end up at first base of left field. Like Sano, Schwarber has top-of-the-scale power. His minor league numbers so far (.344/.428/.634 in 262 AB) are certainly impressive.

Peterson is yet another big man with tremendous raw power, and is yet another player that will likely end up at first base after all is said and done. Hedges is a defense-first catcher who will more than likely struggle with the bat when he reaches the majors. He hit just .225/.268/.321 at the Double-A level last year, and owns a BB/K ratio of 81/209 in his career.

#9 Mississippi Meatballs
Ranked prospects: Noah Syndergaard (10), Jameson Taillon (30), Albert Almora (73), Jeff Hoffman (77), Nick Kingham (94), Jake Lamb (104)
Unranked prospects: Greg Bird, Nick Delmonico, Gareth Morgan, D.J. Stewart, Trevor Story, Cole Tucker, Taylor Ward, Riley Ferrell, Carson Fulmer, Justin Hooper, Ryan John, Sam Selman

Syndergaard got smacked around by the Pacific Coast League in 2014, but that didn't seem to deter our experts from ranking him among the top ten prospects in the game. With a career K/BB ratio of nearly four to one, he has the potential to be an ace.

Taillon was once ranked as high as #10 in this report, but he has steadily dropped in the ranking each and every year since then, from #10 in 2011, to #12 the following year, to #17, to #18 last year, and now all the way down to #30. Kiley McDaniel from FanGraphs is so down on Taillon that he ranked him at #66. The issue, as with many young pitchers, is health. Tommy John surgery landed Taillon on the DL for the entire 2014 season, and his future is now up in the air.

Almora also saw a huge stumble in the overall ranking, as he fell forty-seven spots all the way to #73. He failed to even make the cut on Baseball America's top-100. After hitting a light .283/.306/.406 in his first exposure to the High-A level last year, Almora hit just .234/.250/.355 in 141 at-bats in Double-A. He still has potential to be a quality major leaguer, but needs a serious comeback season to regain his prospect status.

#10 Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Jorge Soler (15), Matt Wisler (41), Hunter Renfroe (46), A.J. Cole (66), Clint Frazier (95), Christian Bethancourt (124)
Unranked prospects: Juan DeLeon, Alex Guerrero, Tyler Naquin, Hector Olivera, Matt Barnes

There was a time when Mike Stein took great pride in finishing at the bottom of this survey year in and year out. Today, the Rocks' farm system ranks among the top ten in the league for only the second time in franchise history. They owe this ranking to Soler, who is the highest-ranked prospect in franchise history since Troy Tulowitzki. In fact, aside from Tulo, Soler is the only prospect the Rocks franchise has ever owned that ranked among the top fifteen.

With his status as a Cuban defector, his power bat from the right side, and his sometimes erratic playing style and personality, Soler draws a lot of comparisons to Yasiel Puig. Given that Soler's minor league totals (.307/.383/.551) closely mirror Puig's MLB totals (.305/.386/.502), that comp seems appropriate. Since Soler is destined to begin the 2015 MLB season in the big leagues, this is the last time we'll see him in the Farm Report -- which means it's likely this is the last time we'll see the Cleveland farm in the top ten for a while.

It's likely that this team's #2 prospect, Wisler, will also graduate to the big leagues this summer as well, although given his performance at Triple-A last year (117 IP, 131 H, 19 HR, 36 BB, 101 K, 5.01 ERA), he may need a little more seasoning. Cole's #66 ranking this year is exactly the same as last year's. Frazier, however, tumbled from #41 all the way down to #95.

The most interesting prospect on the Cleveland roster is Olivera, who could make more of an impact in Cleveland than any other prospect on the roster, with the exception of Soler.

#11 Wyoming Ridgebacks
Ranked prospects: Joey Gallo (9), Jonathan Gray (17), Brandon Nimmo (64), Matt Olson (114), Francellis Montas (121)
Unranked prospects: Jake Bauers, Starling Heredia, Jorge Mateo, Yairo Munoz, Kevin Padlo, Gary Sanchez, Alex Verdugo, Manny Banuelos, Ryan Yarbrough

Gallo has cemented a reputation as the Adam Dunn of the minor leagues. A "three-true-outcomes" hitter with 70-80 power on the 20-80 scouting scale, you know what you're going to get from Gallo once he reaches the big leagues: 30-35 homers a year, a .230 batting average, 90+ walks, and 180+ strikeouts. There are plenty of hitters (Russ Branyan, Jack Cust, Jim Pressley, etc.) who fit that profile, and provided some level of production for a period of time. The Ridgebacks are hoping Gallo is more like Dunn, and less like Branyan.

Gray was the third overall pick in the 2013 MLB draft, and has lived up to high expectations for the most part. He is the best pitching prospect the Ridgebacks franchise has owned since Jeremy Hellickson. Nimmo's performance hasn't kept pace with his scouting reports so far. As an athletic, left-hand-hitting center fielder with some speed and power potential, he reminds me a lot of Grady Sizemore. To this point in their careers, however, Sizemore was way ahead of Nimmo.

Strangely enough, the unranked prospects on this roster seem to have more potential impact than the ranked prospects. Mateo just barely missed the FanGraphs top 100, clocking in at 102. He has 80 speed, and has used it to swipe 64 bases in just 93 games in his minor league career. He also reportedly has above-average range at shortstop, good plate discipline, and enough bat speed to hit for a little power. I predict he will rocket up this ranking over the next year, and will be this team's top prospect in next year's report.

Another interesting prospect is Verdugo, who was ranked the #6 prospect in the Arizona League by Baseball America. Another left-handed hitter with a sweet swing, Verdugo hit .353/.421/.511 in his professional debut, with more walks (20) than strikeouts (18). Heredia is also a very interesting prospect in that he was such an unusual pick for Tom DiStefano. Only 15 years old, Heredia is the longest of long shots.

#12 Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked prospects: Henry Owens (29), Aaron Judge (49), Eduardo Rodriguez (52), Sean Newcomb (75), J.T. Realmuto (98)
Unranked prospects: Tyler Austin, Ti'Quan Forbes, Eric Jagielo, Roman Quinn, Harold Ramirez, Rangel Ravelo, Robert Refsnyder, Walker Buehler, Edwin Diaz, Luke Weaver

Despite the relatively low ranking of some of the players listed above, this Infidels system has the potential to be much more productive than a #12-ranked farm club. I can't help but compare Owens to Jon Lester. Not only are they both left-handers who have pitched in the Boston Red Sox system, but they have similar stuff, and their minor league careers are eerily similar. Lester posted a 3.33 ERA in six minor league seasons, and averaged 3.8 walks per nine, and 8.3 strikeouts per nine. Owens has posted a 3.34 ERA in his three-year career, with an average of 3.9 walks per nine, and 10.7 K's per nine.

Judge is one of those guys whose scouting reports hasn't always matched his performance. In college, he was said to have 65-70 power, yet he hit only 18 home runs in three NCAA seasons. He nearly matched that total last year in his first professional season, however, and then added four more in the Arizona Fall League. For such a big guy (6'7"), he doesn't have a big swing. He strikes out at a reasonable rate, and draws a lot of walks (89 in 80 games last year.) Why he isn't ranked higher is a mystery to me.

Rodriguez is also ranked deceptively low, in my opinion. If you only look at his career numbers as a whole, nothing stands out, but if you look at what he did after his mid-season trade to the Red Sox last year, you see this: 37+ IP, 30 H, 1 HR, 8 BB, 39 K, 0.96 ERA. Reportedly, his fastball velocity ticked upward after that trade, and he sharpened his slider. Maybe the 'Sox pitching coach transformed Rodriguez into a frontline starter, or maybe his late season performance was just a fluke. It will be interesting to watch.

Another interesting player to watch in 2015 will be Refsnyder, who surprisingly didn't appear on any of the four lists, despite a breakthrough season in which he hit .342/.385/.548 at Double-A and .300/.389/.456 at Triple-A in nearly the same number of at-bats. With the Yankees seemingly in full rebuilding mode, it wouldn't be a surprise if Refsnyder were given the opportunity for significant playing time at the MLB level this year. Even if he becomes nothing more than an above-average hitting utility player, that is not bad for an unranked prospect.

#13 Salem Cowtippers
Ranked prospects: Kris Bryant (2), Trea Turner (79), Raisel Iglesias (81), Rafael Devers (86), Amed Rosario (87), Spencer Adams (133), Jacob Lindgren (133)
Unranked prospects: Alex Blandino, Alex Bregman, Elias Diaz, Nelson Gomez, Deven Marrero, Yorman Rodriguez, Austin Bergner, Phil Bickford, Rafael DePaula, Wei-Chung Wang

If not for the inexplicable fifth place ranking from the folks at Baseball Prospectus, Bryant would have become the first prospect to rank #1 overall in this survey since Stephen Strasburg. He now owns a career batting line of .327/.428/.666 (a 1094 OPS). In 174 games, he has hit 48 doubles and 52 homers, with 97 walks and 197 strikeouts. It is that last number that is the only question mark on his resume.

The Cowtippers' farm is stocked with shortstops, with Turner (.323/.406/.448 last year) currently leading the ranking. I was happily surprised to see Rosario ranked by three of the four experts, as I thought he was flying under the radar. As one of the youngest players in the New York Penn League, he hit .289/.337/.380, and was named the #3 prospect in the league by Baseball America. Bregman is another Salem shortstop prospect, who is considered to be a first round talent in the MLB draft this year. Marrero is yet another shortstop prospect with "Ex" range in the field, but a questionable bat. I see him as having a Brandon Crawford-like career. And lastly, Blandino was ranked as the #4 prospect in the Pioneer League by BA, but didn't make the cut in any of the top-100 lists.

Devers was ranked as high as the top 50 (on the FanGraphs list), and has compiled a .322/.404/.506 career batting line at two rookie levels. He just turned 18 in October, and has a long way to go before seeing the big leagues. Aside from Bryant, he has the highest offensive upside of any Salem prospect.

On the pitching side, I was surprised to see that Adams earned such little respect. Only Baseball America ranked him among the top 100 -- and just barely, at #100. Granted, he's still a longshot, but you have to like the numbers he posted in his professional debut last year: 42 IP, 4 BB, 59 K. Lindgren also managed to barely make the rankings, checking in at #100 on the FanGraphs list. The most surprising ranking, to me, was Iglesias, who was ranked #62 by FanGraphs and #58 by Baseball America. He was my second to last pick in the Farm Draft this winter, selected in Round Eight.

It should be noted that of the top four prospects in baseball in this year's ranking, the Salem organization once owned three of them. The Cowtippers also owned #8 as well, which would have given them five of the top eight prospects in the game if we had held onto them. Johnny F'ing Appleseed.

#14 Flagstaff Outlaws
Ranked prospects: Mark Appel (23), Tyler Kolek (61), Lucas Sims (100), Billy McKinney (107), Andrew Susac (111)
Unranked prospects: Garin Cecchini, Nick Ciuffo, Travis Demeritte, Derek Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez, Francisco Mejia, Ryan O'Hearn, Adrian Rondon, Scott Schebler, J.R. Graham, Danny Hultzen

Nearly eight weeks later, I am still seething over Greg Newgard's eleventh-hour theft of Rondon from my roster. Just typing that name gets my blood boiling.

Appel, Sims, and Cecchini came over to Flagstaff in that infamous winter trade that loaded up the Los Altos Undertakers even further, and made it nearly impossible for anyone other than Los Altos to win this season. (Not that I'm carrying too much of a grudge against Newgard this year.) Appel is the sixth best pitching prospect in baseball according to FanGraphs despite Kiley McDaniels' mention of Appel's inconsistent velocity and wide-ranging scouting reports. Performance-wise, Appel's minor league numbers so far (5.93 ERA in 121+ innings, with 145 hits and 13 HR allowed, and 111 K's) hardly seem worthy of his high ranking, but his scouting reports trump his performance at this point.

There seem to be a wide range of opinions on Kolek as well, as he ranked among the top 30 (#27) by MLB.com, landed in the middle of BA's list, appeared in the lower quarter of FanGraph's list, and wasn't ranked at all by Baseball Prospectus. He has only 22 innings of professional pitching on his resume, but his 13/18 BB/K ratio in those 22 innings doesn't inspire confidence.

Sims is yet another pitcher whose numbers don't scream "top prospect." After posting excellent strikeout numbers in 2012 and 2013, he averaged just 6.15 K's per nine at the High-A level last season. He has also averaged 3.4 walks per nine, and the track record for pitchers with a high walk rate and low strikeout rate is not good.

#15 Las Vegas Flamingos
Ranked prospects: Francisco Lindor (7), Steven Souza (74), Justin O'Conner (103), Aldaberto Mejia (120)
Unranked prospects: Jung-ho Kang, James Ramsey, Mac Williamson, Christian Binford, Andrew Chafin, Taylor Jungmann, Ethan Martin, Chris Stratton, Jose Urena

Last year, I wrote on this page: "I never really understood the hype over Lindor." A year later, I understand it even less. He hit a singles-driven .278/.352/.389 in his second visit to Double-A ball last year, and followed that by hitting an abysmal .273/.307/.388 at Triple-A. And these numbers are worthy of the #7 prospect in all of baseball? The folks at Baseball Prospectus even went so far as to rank him #4...ahead of KRIS BRYANT! My only explanation is that Lindor must be a better defensive shortstop than Ozzie Smith, Rabbit Maranville and Andrelton Simmons combined. Diamond Mind will have to make a new "Ex-Ex" range rating just to accommodate young Mr. Lindor when he hits the big leagues!

What the Vegas farm club lacks in high-impact prospects they make up for with prospects who will likely contribute sooner rather than later. Souza is one of those prospects, as his trade to Tampa Bay seems like an opportunity for substantial playing time. He has the tools and track record to be a decent hitter with a little bit of pop and some speed. He reminds me of a Seth Smith type of player, which is a nice asset to have on a team, but isn't exactly what you look for if he's your second best prospect.

O'Conner owns a career OPS of 685, and a batting line of .232/.289/.396, but he earns high praise for his defensive abilities. That would make his comp, what, Jose Molina? So, the Flamingos best three prospects at the moment are Rabbit Maranville, Seth Smith, and Jose Molina. 'Nuff said!

#16 Akron Ryche
Ranked prospects: Jake Thompson (43), Alex "Chi Chi" Gonzalez (56), Josh Bell (62), Lewis Thorpe (121), Hunter Dozier (127)
Unranked prospects: Ji-Man Choi, Wilmer Difo, Travis Harrison, Colin Moran, Brett Phillips, Giovany Urshela, Dan Vogelbach, Tyler Danish, Zach Davies, Daniel Missaki

Last year on this page, I ended the Akron Ryche's farm report with a hearty "Zzzzzzzzzz." A year later, I haven't gained even a little excitement about this farm club. Where are all the hot young pitching prospects from exotic homelands with 110-mph fastballs? Where is the hitting prospect who is heralded as "the next Sammy Sosa" or "the next Alex Rodriguez?" Every year, it seems, the Akron farm is filled with prospects that inspire more yawns than platitudes.

One look at the list of #1 prospects in franchise history illustrates this point. That list is filled with names like Chin-Feng Chen, Bobby Bradley, Carlos Hernandez, Jonathan Meloan, Stephen Drew, and Manny Parra. This year's top prospect is Jake Thompson, a two-pitch starter who may be heading to the bullpen. Gonzalez appears to be a more exciting prospect, but only because of his cool nickname. I mean, Jake Thompson isn't even the only Jake Thompson in professional baseball right now. There was also a Jacob Thompson, who pitched for the Braves a few years ago, and a Jason Thompson, who played first base for the Padres back in the 90's. I only know of one "Chi Chi" Gonzalez.

Of the rest of the prospects, it seems that Phillips has the best chance to move up the ranking over the next year. He was ranked as the #8 prospect in the Midwest League by BA, after hitting .339/.421/.560 in High-A. Of course, those numbers came in a ballpark that makes New Milford's Nestle Field look plausible in comparison, so take them with a spoonful of salt.

#17 Southern California Slyme
Ranked prospects: Alex Meyer (37), Steven Matz (41), Max Fried (109)
Unranked prospects: Micker Adolfo, Alfredo Despaigne, Dermis Garcia, Micah Johnson, Ketel Marte, Wendell Rijo, Magnerius Sierra, Dansby Swanson, Justin Williams, Luke Jackson, Riley Pint

The Slyme ranked #5 in this survey a year ago, but after the trades/graduations of Kevin Gausman, Billy Hamilton, Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi and Danny Hultzen, this is where the farm club has landed. Meyer is a bit of a polarizing prospect, as BP ranked him all the way up at #14, and FanGraphs gave him a ranking of #71. MLB.com (#29) and BA (#62) were equally divided. If that FanGraphs ranking were just a little lower, Meyer would have pulled off the rare feat of appearing in all four quarters of the top 100!

As a right-hander standing at 6'9", with a fastball that can reach the upper-90's, a comparison of Meyer to Jon Rauch seems fitting. The difference is that Rauch had a bit more control, despite the height advantage. He averaged 2.7 walks per nine in his minor league career, compared to an average of 3.76 per nine for Meyer. Kiley McDaniel at FanGraphs seems to think Meyer will end up in the bullpen, but so far, the Twins seem to be sticking with him as a starter.

Matz is a lefty with good control and command, who projects as a solid #3 starter once he gets a little more experience. In 276 career minor league innings, he owns a 90/286 BB/K ratio. The other lefty pitcher remaining in the ranked list is Fried, who is more projection than results at this point. He has struggled with his command, resulting in a BB/9 rate above 4.0.

Sylvester has loaded the rest of his farm club with lottery tickets. Adolfo, Garcia, Marte, Rijo, and Sierra are all Latin American prospects selected during the July 2nd signing period for 16-year-olds. Despaigne is still living in Cuba, and (from everything I've read) isn't planning to jump on a raft and sail to the US anytime soon. Swanson is tearing it up as a college junior, and Pint is a stud pitching prospect who plans to bring Allie Koster to the junior prom this spring (according to her most recent tweet.)

#18 Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: Dylan Bundy (22), Reese McGuire (80), Miguel Almonte (93)
Unranked prospects: Brayan Hernandez, Jorge Polanco, Dominic Smith, Henry Urrutia, Adam Walker, Chris Acosta, Tyler Beede, Mauricio Cabrera, Ian Clarkin, Anderson Espinoza, John Lamb, Yoan Lopez

Bundy has yo-yo'd up and down this ranking since entering professional ball. Back in 2012, he was this team's top-ranked prospect at #10 overall. In 2013, he soared all the way up to #2. At that time, I called him "the most exciting pitching prospect to come out of the Kansas farm club since Rick Ankiel." Then, like Ankiel, Bundy injured his elbow and missed the entire season with Tommy John surgery. Still, he only slipped to #17 despite that. He fought his way back last year, and after a fifteen inning trial in which he dominated the New York Penn League, Bundy struggled with his command at the High-A level, posting a 13/15 BB/K ratio before he was shut down again -- this time, with an oblique issue. Considering that he was making some progress with his fastball velocity late in the season before he was shut down, we can probably write off the entire season and pretend it never happened.

McGuire was an early first round pick in the MLB draft in 2013. He burst onto the scene with his bat, hitting .330/.388/.392 in the Gulf Coast League, but his hitting ability since then is only a rumor. Playing the entire season at Low-A last year, he hit .262/.307/.334 with three homers in 389 at-bats.

I once predicted on this page that Almonte would someday be a top ten pitching prospect. I'm still waiting for that to happen. He had his worst year to date in 2014, posting a 4.49 ERA in 110+ innings. If that's his worst, though, he's still pretty good. In those 110 innings, he allowed only 32 walks, and struck out 101. There is still a breakout on the way; I can feel it.

#19 Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Dalton Pompey (39), Steven Moya (133)
Unranked prospects: Christian Arroyo, Ryan Brett, Hak Ju Lee, Mike Papi, Chase Vallot, Chris Anderson, Ty Blach, Severino Gonzalez, Heath Hambree, Keury Mell, Steven Okert, Ashe Russell, Victor Sanchez, Trevor Williams

Matt Clemm owned the #1 pick in every round of this year's Free Agent Draft, and he used his first two picks to build his farm club. Pompey was selected in Round 11 at the hefty pricetag of $2 million, and Moya was chosen in Round 16 at $1 million. Both would have to far outperform expectations to be worthy of those salaries. The benefit of owning top farm players is that they cost so much less than a team would have to pay for a similar player on the open market. If you are buying these types of players on the open market, at market rates, prior to them becoming productive players...well, that sort of defeats the purpose, no?

A speedy slap-hitter, Pompey looks more like a fourth outfielder than an everyday center fielder, but he could see a season or two of full-time play -- maybe even as soon as this year. Moya is exactly the opposite of Pompey: a giant (6'7"/260), hulking monster who swings from his heels and connected 35 times last season, but whiffed 161 times in only 133 games at the Double-A level (and walked only 23 times.)

I would comment about the players on the unranked list, but frankly, I don't know ANY of them! Seriously, where does Matt do his scouting? I would like to bet a beer, with anyone, that none of those guys on the unranked list compiles a MLB career WAR over 1.0.

#20 Corona Confederates
Ranked prospects: Grant Holmes (87), Michael Conforto (92), Willy Adames (96)
Unranked prospects: Bobby Bradley, Matt Chapman, Ian Happ, Justin Smith, Brady Aiken, Andrew Albers, Jack Flaherty, Kyle Fuckhouser, Joe Gatto, Foster Griffin, Ricardo Sanchez, Justus Sheffield

I was surprised to see Adames ranked so low, as I had him very high on my list heading into this winter's Farm Draft. While he was ranked on all four lists, his highest ranking was #77 (by MLB.com). He has basically played one full season's worth of games in his minor league career (650 AB), and has hit .263/.375/.411, with 31 doubles, 19 triples, 9 homers, and a 110/170 BB/K ratio. Those numbers sure look good to me -- especially for an 18-year-old.

Holmes is the team's #1 prospect, and he had an impressive pro debut last year after being selected with the 22nd overall pick in the MLB draft. In 48+ innings, he allowed 39 hits, 3 homers, and 13 walks, and struck out 58. Conforto was also a first-round pick in 2014 (tenth overall), and his debut in the New York Penn League was equally as impressive: .331/.403/.448 in 163 AB.

The next wave of Corona prospects in the unranked group is intriguing, as several of those names should appear in the first round of the 2015 MLB draft, including Aiken (the #1 overall pick last year), Funkhouser (who is off to a hot start in the NCAA season), and Happ.

#21 Great Lakes Sphinx
Ranked prospects: Rio Ruiz (97), Kyle Crick (108), Erick Fedde (118)
Unranked prospects: Jeimer Candelario, Victor Caratani, Aledmys Diaz, Courtney Hawkins, Gleyber Torres, Austin Wilson, Jonathan Crawford, Carson Sands, Jen-Ho Tseng, Duane Underwood

The California League, and especially Lancaster's home ballpark, makes it difficult to judge prospects from that league without a lot of mental gymnastics. Given that, the numbers Ruiz posted (.293/.387/.436, 11 HR) aren't all that impressive in context, and it's his bat that is supposed to be his calling card to the big leagues. That is the Great Lakes Sphinx's top prospect...and it only goes downhill from there.

Great Lakes took the biggest fall of any other farm system in this survey, as they were ranked #6 last year. That's what happens, though, when George Springer graduates to the big leagues, and you trade Jackie Bradley, Jr., Christian Bethancourt, Arismendy Alcantara and Hunter Renfroe.

Of the unranked prospects on this list, none stands out as an obvious candidate to join the ranks of the ranked next year. Frankly, I don't know why some of those guys weren't cut already. It seems as though most of those guys are only there because they're members of the Cubs. I mean, is there anyone besides a die-hard Cubs fan who is holding out hope for Victor Caratini to blossom into a useful MLB player?

#22 New Milford Blazers
Ranked prospects: Orlando Arcia (106), Brian Johnson (116)
Unranked prospects: Yu-Cheng Chang, Andy Ibanez, Kyle Kubitza, Tomohiro Anranku, Amir Garrett, Taylor Guerreri, Michael Kopech, Austin Kubitza, Kodi Medeiros, Luis Ortiz

Anthony Peburn is very proud of the fact that two of the players he selected in this winter's Farm Draft were ranked by our experts. That's only one fewer players selected by Peburn in the draft than he released before Opening Day. Good job.

Arcia is famous for being the brother of Oswaldo. In three professional seasons, he has hit .275/.342/.382 with 14 homers and 64 stolen bases in 311 games. Brian Johnson is famous for being a character in The Breakfast Club, portrayed by Anthony Michael Hall. Surprisingly, the scrawny little nerd from detention hall grew up to become a pitcher in the Red Sox organization. If his entire minor league career were a single season, he would be a Cy Young candidate: 234+ IP, 163 H, 10 HR, 75 BB, 220 K, 2.23 ERA.

The Blazers have now finished among the bottom five teams in this ranking two years in a row. It's a wonder how they're able to convince so many teams to take their shitty prospects in exchange for superstars with actual value.

#23 Granite State Lightning
Ranked prospects: Alen Hanson (123)
Unranked prospects: Randy Arrozarena, Roberto Baldoquin, Jose Briceno, Luis Yanker La O, Daniel Palka, Dian Toscano, Forrest Wall, Corey Black, Shintaro Fujinami, Norge Ruiz, Pat Venditte, Austin Voth

Venditte may very well hold the BDBL record for longest tenure on a BDBL farm team. If he is ever promoted to the big leagues, it would break the Diamond Mind game for good.

Here is what I wrote about the Lightning farm system last year on this page, when they ranked #18, and had only one ranked player:

"With nearly an entire farm team to fill this winter, Ryan went nuts and overloaded on players who are extremely high risk and have extremely high ceilings. He scoured the globe, from Cuba to Japan and back, looking for such players, and found several who fit that criteria.  Each and every one of them is a lottery ticket, with the exact same odds of a big pay-out...It's safe to say that none of them will be ranked next year. In fact, it's a safe bet that more than half of them won't even be on this roster (or any other) a year from now. But all it takes for this strategy to succeed is to hit the jackpot with just one of those scratch tickets."

Well, how did all of those lottery tickets work out? Two of those tickets were Cubans who were stuck behind the Iron Curtain with no chance of escape...and they both escaped. Instantly, both Rusney Castillo and Yasmany Tomas became prime trade bait, and Bobby Sylvester swooped in and grabbed them both. In exchange for Castillo, and J.O. Berrios (who Ryan basically traded Gio Gonzalez to acquire), the Lightning received perhaps the greatest off-season prize of all: Johnny Cueto. (Note: of course, Bobby also added a farm pick in that deal, which became yet another Cuban, Yoan Moncada.)

In exchange for the other Cuban refugee, Yasmany Tomas, Ryan added all-star catcher Yan Gomes in a trade with the Giants. Another one of Granite State's "lottery tickets" a year ago was Renato Nunez, who Ryan flipped for his starting shortstop, Marwin Gonzalez. And yet another lottery ticket, Kenta Maeda, was traded in exchange for all-star second baseman Jose Altuve.

In other words, after all was said and done, Ryan was able to flip several of those "lottery tickets", who weren't even ranked at this time last year, in exchange for a Cy Young-caliber starting pitcher, an all-star second baseman, an all-star catcher, and his everyday starting shortstop. Incredible.

So, can he repeat that trick a second time, or was it a Daffy Duck trick? Looking at this farm roster filled with the longest of long shots, I just don't see it. But I've been wrong before.

#24 New York Giants
Ranked prospects: Nick Burdi (131)
Unranked prospects: Michael Chavis, Clint Coulter, D.J. Davis, Jacob Gatewood, Monte Harrison, Gilbert Lara, Bubba Starling, Kyle Cody, Jason Hursh, Cody Ponce, Nick Travieso, Kevin Ziomek, Casey Kelly, Luiz Gohara

Oh, Jim. Jim, Jim, Jim. Since joining the BDBL, Jim Doyle has become infamous for two things: making awful trades and changing strategies more often than he changes his underwear. It seems like just yesterday that Doyle's latest surefire winning strategy was to build his franchise through the farm club. He crowed about the elite arms on his farm, which included James Paxton, Noah Syndergaard, Henry Owens, Braden Shipley, and Luis Severino. He waxed poetic about their immense talent, compared them to Tom Seaver and Sandy Koufax, and stressed the importance of patience. No longer would he make the same mistakes he made in the past, he told anyone who would listen. He named a new fictional GM to guide the Giants franchise into a new era of long-term prosperity and success. The official Giants blog spelled it all out in clear and concise language:

The Giants franchise has shown the past capability of drafting future stars, but lacked the patience to let them grow into low-cost stars. In addition, the Giants have been saddled with high-cost long-term contracts with underperforming stars, which choke off the ability to retrain new talent. We believe (newly-named GM Andrew) Friedman will bring the energy to make the franchise to resemble their MLB namesake.

A year later, the entire farm club has been stripped bare. Paxton, Syndergaard, Owens, Shipley, and Severino are all gone. And the Giants are still a sub-.500 team. What a tragedy.