May, 2015

Chapter Two Recap

Players of the Chapter

December 7th is the "day that will live in infamy." It's also the day the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor. On that fateful day last winter, the Salem Cowtippers made a rather innocuous trade (or so I thought at the time) with the New York Giants. In exchange for three players, including inexpensive young starter Roenis Elias, the 'Tippers received platoon first baseman Adam LaRoche. The league responded by going batshit crazy.

"Please stop," Tom implored to Jim. "One of the worst trades of the off-season," he whined. Peburn then chimed in with his usual insulting accusation, stating, "at least you didn't rip off your son this time."

Elias was dismissed as a "below average" starting pitcher by the BDBL's Peanut Gallery, and LaRoche was praised as a "very valuable asset." Rioters took to the streets of Salem in protest, overturning cars and looting businesses. Leading the way was Anthony Peburn, a pitchfork in one hand and a torch in the other.

Nine days later, LaRoche was traded to the South Carolina Sea Cats as part of the big Buster Posey/Freddy Freeman deal. Less than 24 hours later, Peburn announced that he had acquired LaRoche from the Sea Cats. And that is how the New Milford Blazers and their despicable Al Sharpton clone ended up with the OL's Hitter of the Chapter in Chapter Two.

The story of how the Niagara Locks ended up with the EL Hitter of the Chapter isn't nearly as exciting. On the first day of the 2013 free agent auction, Mike Ranney won the bid for Adrian Beltre at $12.5 million. The end.

Kansas' Dallas Keuchel went a perfect 6-0 in Chapter Two, and Charlotte's Kyle Hendricks went 5-1 with a 1.69 ERA, but it is Chicago's Jordan Zimmerman who walks away with the EL's Pitcher of the Chapter award. Zimmerman was one of the lone bright spots in Chicago last chapter. He went 4-1 with a league-leading 1.41 ERA, and also led in all three triple-slash categories: .174/.209/.239.

On the OL side, Los Altos stud Chris Sale not only led his league, but led the entire BDBL, in all three triple-slash categories: .171/.194/.219. He compiled a 2.12 ERA, and allowed just one home run and three walks in more than 29 innings. Yet, believe it or not, he went 2-2 on the chapter.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Hot Dogs

It isn't especially surprising to see the Kansas Law Dogs in first place in the Higuera Division. They were picked to win the division on this page, and finished tied with the Wyoming Ridgebacks in preseason league polling. What is surprising, though, is the size of the lead they have amassed in the wake of their stunning 23-5 Chapter Two. This was expected to be a tight race; instead, the Law Dogs are now five games ahead of the second place Ridgebacks, and their recent trades may expand that lead even further.

What makes their Chapter Two performance even more surprising is the fact that they were so awful in Chapter One. They finished that chapter with a 10-18 record, good for last place in the division. That record was a bit deceptive, given that they were outscored by only three runs, but the difference in performance between Chapters One and Two are remarkable. The team's pitching performance was consistent across both chapters, but the offense looks like a completely different team from one chapter to the next:

That wholesale improvement across the board might be explained by the fact that the Law Dogs played against different opponents in Chapter Two. However, Kansas went just 3-9 against opponents within their division in the first chapter, and an incredible 11-1 against those same opponents in Chapter Two.

The entire difference, it seems, can be explained by nothing more than random luck in a short sample size. Which Kansas team is the "real" Law Dogs? The truth likely falls somewhere in between, which would make the 'Dogs about a 94-win team. But that, however, was before the trades made by GM Chris Luhning just prior to the deadline.

In the first trade, the Law Dogs added third baseman Pablo Sandoval. Although Yangervis Solarte has held his own against right-handers so far (.295/.396/.393), Sandoval (.317/.363/.461 vs. RH in MLB) should represent an upgrade at the position for Kansas.

The deal with the Corona Confederates represents a possible upgrade at two starting rotation spots for the Law Dogs. Jason Hammel (5-3, 4.43 ERA in 83+ IP) and Josh Beckett (0-2, 4.26 ERA in 12+ IP) have been replaced with Andrew Cashner (3-3, 3.00 ERA in 57 IP) and Matt Garza (1-4, 3.86 ERA in 56 IP). Kansas currently ranks among the middle of the pack in team ERA at 3.46. Their two new additions could save as many as 70 runs over the next four chapters, which would go a long way toward creating some distance in the division race.

Story #2: Salem Tips Over

What the hell just happened? For the first time in years, the Cowtippers finished a chapter in first place, and appeared to be sailing along comfortably with a pitching staff and offense that was firing on all cylinders. Then, the nonsense began.

There are many forms of nonsense that occur in Salem on a regular basis, but the primary source this past chapter was the inexplicable and inconceivable collapse of Salem's dual aces, Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Witness:

• May 1 vs. LVF, Scherzer: 6 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 HR
• May 5 vs. FLG, Scherzer: 5 IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 5 BB, 6 K, 0 HR
• May 10 vs. MIS, Strasburg: 6 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 3 HR
• May 13 vs. LAU, Scherzer: 6+ IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 5 K, 2 HR
• May 26 vs. NMB, Strasburg: 3+ IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 3 HR

For the chapter, Scherzer compiled a 1-5 record and 4.81 ERA, while Strasburg went 1-4 with a whopping 6.81 ERA. Francisco Liriano (2-2, 8.68 ERA) didn't help much, either. Strasburg allowed ELEVEN home runs on the chapter, which is nearly half as many as he allowed (23) over the entire 2014 MLB season.

How unlikely are these performances by Scherzer and Strasburg? Well, in 33 starts in MLB 2014, Scherzer allowed five or more earned runs four times. In 34 MLB starts in 2014, Strasburg also allowed five or more runs a grand total of four times, and allowed four home runs in one game.

So, it's not entirely unlikely that both pitchers would perform so horribly over a six-start span of time. It's merely an unfortunate coincidence that BOTH pitchers performed as poorly as possible over the same six-start timeframe. Had both pitchers performed normally last chapter, the Cowtippers would undoubtedly remain in first place. Instead, they're looking up at the Blazers from four games behind.

Story #3: Hrbek Division: And Then There Were Two

Last month, I wrote about how tight the Hrbek Division race appeared to be. At the end of the first chapter, only one game separated the three top teams in the division, and the Chicago Black Sox were an underperforming silent-but-deadly contender on the verge of busting out.

One chapter later, the Black Sox have already sold off several pieces of their team, with more to come, and the Akron Ryche have officially declared, "UNCLE." It was yet another odd, sub-.500 chapter for Chicago, who were picked by many (including me) to win this division. Although they outscored their opponents by five runs, they finished with a record of 13-15, and now sit eleven games out of first place at the one-third mark of the season.

Akron went just 10-18 in Chapter Two, and were outscored by a whopping 43 runs -- the worst margin in the BDBL. Now ten games behind in the division, GM DJ Sheppard has thrown in the towel, and is looking to rebuild for the 2016 race.

That leaves just two teams standing: the Cleveland Rocks and the Charlotte Mustangs. The Rocks continued to ride the top of the standings in Chapter Two, finishing with a 19-9 record. Although their offense continues to perform below league-average (ranked 15th in the BDBL in runs scored, and hitting .258/.309/.375 as a team), their pitching has been as dominant as advertised. The Rocks currently rank #3 in team ERA (2.93), #3 in lowest OPS allowed (616), and #3 in CERA (2.64).

Right behind Cleveland in the pitching department is Charlotte, who rank #4 in CERA (3.02), #4 in lowest OPS (640), and #4 in ERA (3.12). Their offense has produced even less than Cleveland's. Among all twenty four BDBL teams, the Mustangs rank a dismal 23rd in runs scored, and are batting just .240/.294/.373 as a team. They were outscored by 34 runs in Chapter Two, and yet still managed to finish the chapter with a 14-14 record.

As of press time, the Rocks own a comfortable six game lead over Charlotte in the division standings. They are the only team in the division that has outscored their opponents this season, and it appears they have a clear path to the division title, which would be the first for Cleveland since 2007.

For the Mustangs, they are in the midst of a battle for the wild card against several worthy opponents, including the Wyoming Ridgebacks, Niagara Locks and Great Lakes Sphinx. As the schedule turns to matchups outside of the division, the playoffs picture should become a little clearer.

Story #4: Los Altos Creates Some Distance

It was fun while it lasted, but the clinching of the Griffin Division by the Los Altos Undertakers was inevitable long before the season began. The first chapter ended with the Flagstaff Outlaws giving the Undertakers a run for their money, just one game behind in the standings. Los Altos won two fewer games in Chapter Two, and yet saw their division lead grow to five games thanks to a 14-14 chapter by Flagstaff.

This Undertakers team is simply dominant in every aspect of the game. They lead the BDBL in runs scored (288), home runs (73), on-base percentage (.342), slugging (.448), walks (212), OPS vs. lefties (860), ERA (2.56), CERA (2.62), strikeouts (534), fewest home runs allowed (33), lowest OPS allowed (597), and most importantly, wins (38).

The last team to lead the BDBL in runs scored and fewest runs allowed were the 2013 Blazers. Let's hope the Undertakers' season ends in a similar fashion.

Story #5: Hot Locks

A chapter ago, it appeared that the Southern Cal Slyme had already wrapped up the division title, and would spend the remainder of the season coasting downhill. At that time, the Slyme held a double-digit lead in the division race, and the Niagara Locks were a distant second place with a record of 11-17. A lot has changed in one chapter. SoCal went just 15-13 in the second chapter, and Niagara (19-9) enjoyed one of the best chapters of any team in the league.

As we saw in Kansas, the biggest reason for the radical improvement in performance was on the offensive side. Niagara hit just .236/.287/.364 as a team in Chapter One, and scored just 92 runs (an average of 3.3 per game.) Carlos Gomez hit .186/.270/.310, and Melky Cabrera (.234/.261/.369) was just about useless. In Chapter Two, the team hit .262/.323/.428, and scored 129 runs -- an improvement of over forty percent! Gomez rebounded to hit .264/.341/.504 on the chapter, and Cabrera hit .298/.333./.447.

In just two chapters, we've seen some radical night-and-day performances by the Kansas and Niagara lineups, and the Salem pitching staff. Chapter Three should prove to be the tie-breaker that reveals the true performance level of all three teams.