March, 2016

Chapter One Recap

Players of the Chapter

Pedro Martinez earned more votes for the BDBL Hall of Fame than any other player aside from Randy Johnson. He absolutely dominated the BDBL for eight seasons, and pitched all eight of those seasons with the Akron Ryche. Ryche GM D.J. Sheppard seemed to have supernatural predictive powers, as he signed Martinez to a contract that was perfectly timed to Martinez's inevitable career demise. In his final year with Akron, Martinez went 20-4 with a 2.60 ERA in 235+ innings. He would pitch only three more seasons after that, never pitching more than 145 innings in any season, and never posting an ERA under 4.60.

2006 was Martinez's final season in Akron. In 2007, Justin Verlander pitched his rookie season as a member of the Ryche and stepped right into the void left by Martinez. Over the next seven seasons, Verlander tossed 198+ innings in all nine seasons, won 17 or more games four times, and posted an ERA under 3.00 in 2012 and 2013.

Unlike the Martinez contract, however, it seemed as though Sheppard's predictive powers were off by two years when he signed Verlander to a long-term deal. In Verlander's last two seasons, he went 7-15 with a 4.87 ERA and 8-14 with a 4.57 ERA, respectively. After back-to-back disappointing seasons, some felt that the 33-year-old's best days were behind him. Sheppard, however, felt otherwise. This past winter, he signed Verlander to a $7.5 million salary that guarantees he will be paid $16 million over the next two years. The result so far: Verlander (1.86 ERA, .191/.225/.305) is the EL Pitcher of the Chapter.

On the Ozzie League side, Los Altos' #3 starter (yes, #3 starter) Chris Sale has continued where he left off in his Cy Young-winning 2015 season. He is now 4-1 on the season, with a 2.45 ERA, a .193/.249/.286 triple-slash line, and a league-leading 67 strikeouts.

In addition to bidding $7.5 million (or more) on Verlander, Sheppard also placed a $7.5 million bid on Ryan Braun. Surprisingly, Bear Country's Matt Clemm placed a higher bid and won the bidding. So far, that bid has paid big dividends, as Braun nearly leads the OL in all three triple-slash categories (.384/.461/.646), ranks third in RBI's (21), and leads the league with 28.3 runs created.

Once upon a time, way, way, back in the year 2013, Brandon Crawford was a 26-year-old all-glove, no-bat shortstop with a career OPS of 650. Niagara GM Mike Ranney must have seen something enticing in Crawford's scouting reports, however, as he traded two players (Yunel Escobar and Esmil Rogers) to the New York Giants to acquire Crawford, and then signed him to a four year contract. Crawford has proved Ranney to be prescient so far this season, as he is our EL Hitter of the Chapter. He leads the BDBL in runs created (32.5) and runs scored (31), and is batting .345/.424/.718 on the season.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Great Scott!

According to league polling, 2016 was looking as though it would be the most boring season on record. Out of the six division races, three were unanimous decisions according to those who voted. One of those divisions that was supposed to be a slam-dunk was the Higuera, where the Kansas Law Dogs were expected to run away with it. The 'Dogs were not only the unanimous choice to win the division, but were a 11-3 favorite to win the Eck League, and tied with the Los Altos Undertakers by earning five votes to win the entire enchilada.

Twenty-eight games into the season, however, it is the Great Lakes Sphinx who own first place in the Higuera Division and the league's best record at 20-8. This isn't the first time that GM Scott Romonosky has surpassed expectations early (and even late) into the season. How does he do it? Well, here is what I wrote in the pre-season preview:

"The Sphinx have an impressive lineup, but I don't see how a team can compete on offense alone. Of course, I wrote the same thing about this team two years ago (minus the compliment of their offense), and they went out and won a wild card. So what do I know?"

Which team currently leads the BDBL in runs scored? You guessed it: the Sphinx. Off-season acquisition Josh Donaldson (.364/.394/.653) is having an MVP-caliber season as expected. Yasmani Tomas (.356/.415/.492), Starline Marte (.356/.385/.462), and Manny Machado (.339/.408/.500) are also hitting the cover off the ball. The entire Great Lakes offensive machine appears to be operating at maximum strength.

I expected the Sphinx's pitching staff to struggle this season. Instead, they rank fifth in the EL in ERA (3.71) and own the fourth-lowest OPS against (.698). Clay Buchholz (1-0, 1.86 ERA in 29 IP) and Nathan Eovaldi (4-0, 1.98 in 36+) are carrying the starting rotation, and Kelvin Herrera (1-1, 1.62 in 16+, with 5 saves) has solidified the bullpen. Even Trevor Bauer (2-1, 2.90 in 31) is off to a terrific start.

With a record of 18-10, the Law Dogs are performing as well as expected, for the most part. They have outscored their competition by more runs (44) than any other team in the Eck League, and trail the Sphinx by only two games. In all likelihood, it's only a matter of time before they catch and surpass Great Lakes in the standings. Of course, I've been wrong before.

Story #2: Apostles are No Locks

In pre-season league polling, the St. Louis Apostles were favored by a tally of 11-2 to win their division. At the end of one chapter, they trail the first place Niagara Locks by just one game. Niagara has scored 14 more runs than St. Louis, and allowed six fewer runs to score, giving them the second-best runs differential in the Eck League.

Niagara lost three of four in head-to-head play against St. Louis, but went 6-2 against Higuera powerhouses Kansas and Great Lakes. They own the second-highest runs scored total in the league despite a lopsided LH/RH split of .692/.805. Xander Bogaerts (.361/.400/.508) is having an MVP-caliber season so far, and Brandon Crawford (.345/.424/.718) is the EL Hitter of the Chapter. If Niagara GM Mike Ranney can only find a first baseman to replace Logan Morrison (.192/.298/.370), look out, Eck League.

On the pitching side, the Niagara bullpen has carried this team into first place. Juan Nicasio, Robbie Ross, Chad Qualls, Jose Fernandez, and Neal Cotts have allowed just three earned runs in 31 innings (a 0.87 ERA.) The rotation's top starter, Chris Tillman, is 3-1 on the season, with a 2.76 ERA in 45+ innings, and Garrett Richards (2-0, 3.47 in 23+) and Johnny Cueto (3-1, 3.88 in 48+) have been solid. Incredibly, this team is in first place despite the fact that their ace, David Price, is just 1-2 with a 5.54 ERA!

Over in St. Louis, the team is hitting near the league average, but their pitching has been hugely disappointing so far. Both Michael Wacha (5.18 ERA in 41+ IP) and Jake Odorizzi (5.88 in 41+) are sporting ERA's above 5.00. Aroldis Chapman (2-3, 4.35 ERA) has lost three games, blown two saves, and has walked more batters (11) than innings pitched (10+). One of the lone bright spots on the pitching staff, Jimmy Nelson (5-2, 3.00 in 48) was traded at the end of the chapter.

Which brings me to my next story...

Story #3: The Big Trade

It's a true rarity when one of the top stories in a Chapter Recap isn't a "Big Trade", and this chapter is no exception. The deal between the St. Louis Apostles and Mississippi Meatballs is likely to be discussed for years to come, as both sides vie for the all-important "I Told Ya So" trophy.

Heading to the Apostles are Noah Syndergaard, Jeff Hoffman, and three others. Heading the opposite way are Jimmy Nelson, Jose DeLeon, Kenta Maeda, Jake McGee, and Victor Martinez.

This trade seemingly reprises the age-old debate: is it better to have a starting rotation with one dominant ace and four mediocre inning-eaters, or is it better to have a rotation with solid #2/#3 type starters throughout? Syndergaard is the type of young ace that only comes around once per decade or so. He may own the most coveted and valuable contract in the BDBL (once he is eligible to sign one.) It is difficult to put a value on someone like him, simply because there is no one else like him.

Nelson is a good, solid, young pitcher with upside of his own. He could be a low-cost top-of-the-rotation starter at some point over the next four-to-six years. The same goes for Maeda, who carries a little more uncertainty due to the fact that he has never pitched in the US before. DeLeon has the potential to be better than either of them, but it is still merely potential at this point. There is a lot of uncertainty and risk with all three, but the upside could surpass Syndergaard's if you were to combine all three.

Is this the worst trade of BDBL history? Hardly. Jim Doyle's record is still safe. Is this one of the worst trades in BDBL history? No, probably not. Will it be the worst trade made this season? Again: probably not. Will this trade cause Bart Chinn to feel as if a sharp dagger is poking him in the belly every time he watches Noah Syndergaard take the mound for the next decade? As someone who has traded a young Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Jake Arrieta, I can only say: I hope not, for Bart's sake.

Story #4: Mississippi's Newest Meatball

Speaking of Bart Chinn, I would be remiss if I didn't include his introduction into the league as one of the top stories of the first chapter. His lively political banter has been a welcome addition to the league, and he has proven to be a worthy competitor as well. The deal he made with St. Louis was designed to improve Mississippi's chances to compete in 2016, which is a noble effort we all should appreciate. In a year where every division seems to have been won before the season even began, it is nice to see someone offer a little healthy competition.

Story #5: The Yawn-Inspiring Ozzie League

The teams with the best records in the Ozzie League are Los Altos (21-7) and New Milford (20-8). Raise your hand if you didn't see that coming. Both teams are the only teams in the Ozzie League that have outscored their competition by more than three runs. (How is that even possible?)

New Milford has outscored their competition by a whopping 60 runs, and Los Altos finishes the chapter at +54. Project those margins out to a full 160-game season, and we're looking at two teams in the same league outscoring their opponents by more than 340 runs. That has never happened in this league in seventeen years. In fact, only once have two teams in the entire BDBL finished a season with a runs differential of +340 or more. In 2002, the Cowtippers (+344) and Ridgebacks (+433) managed that feat, and then faced each other in the BDBL World Series (won by the Ridgebacks, of course.)

Needless to say, an OLCS matchup between Los Altos and New Milford seems a foregone conclusion.