January, 2016

2016 Draft Day Preview

A year ago, I wrote on this page that the Class of 2016 had the potential to become the best free agent class the league has ever seen. As it turned out, due to injuries and off seasons, that prediction fell short. This is still a solid auction class, with plenty of impact players both offensively and defensively. This auction will make or break several teams this season, and could potentially end this season before it begins, depending how it all unfolds.

Due to the amount of available spending cash this year, we could see a drastic spike in inflation. If the trend continues, we should see roughly $318 million spent on this year's auction class, which would be the highest total spent in the auction since 2008. Given that the quality of the players in that 2008 auction was so much greater, it stands to reason that there will be significant inflation this year.

How does this year's auction class compare to others?

After an abysmal auction class last year, we are back on track with a class that totals over 1,000 VORP for only the second time in the past five seasons:

2003: 2006.9
2004: 2210.3
2005: 2155.9
2006: 1903.2
2007: 1858.0
2008: 1522.4
2009: 1239.8
2010: 1475.4
2011: 1230.1
2012: 995.3
2013: 947.0
2014: 1237.1
2015: 898.1
2016: 1146.6

If we look at only the top ten, this class ranks among the bottom four:

2003: 729.6
2004: 680.8
2005: 762.0
2006: 621.8
2007: 654.2
2008: 579.5
2009: 524.4
2010: 582.9
2011: 488.3
2012: 415.6
2013: 373.5
2014: 434.9
2015: 314.6
2016: 425.3

What this class lacks in impact players, it redeems itself with tremendous depth. The top ten includes four impact bats with Joey Votto (.314/.459/.541), Buster Posey (.318/.379/.470), Miguel Cabrera (.338/.440/.534), and Ryan Braun (.285/.356/.498). Jim Doyle would certainly argue that another top ten player, Ben Zobrist (.276/.359/.450) deserves to be included in that group.

The second tier of impact bats includes several players who could be key pieces to any BDBL contender: Alex Gordon (.271/.377/.432 in 422 PA), Michael Brantley (.310/.379/.480), Jhonny Peralta (.275/.334/.411), and Carlos Beltran (.276/.337/.471) are all good enough to start for a playoffs-caliber team. Franklin Gutierrez (.292/.354/.620 in 189 PA) is the ultimate pinch hitting weapon, and Hunter Pence (.275/.327/.478 in 223 PA) could be equally useful off the bench. And you just know that Matt Clemm is itching to resign Alex Rodriguez (.250/.356/.486).

On the pitching side, this class includes two pitchers who should contend for a Cy Young award this season: Jake Arrieta (229 IP, 1.53 CERA) and Zack Greinke (222+ IP, 1.56 CERA.) Whoever signs either one of those two pitches should be considered an instant contender. Given the number of teams jockeying for position this season, it wouldn't surprise me if we see our first $20 million player since Johan Santana.

Several other quality starting pitchers are available, including John Lackey (218 IP, 3.34 CERA), R.A. Dickey (214+ IP, 3.48 CERA), Jon Lester (205 IP, 3.34 CERA), Felix Hernandez (201+ IP, 3.53 CERA), and Mark Buehrle (198+ IP, 3.81 CERA). Only two relievers made the top 50 this year: Brett Cecil (54+ IP, 2.48 CERA) and Adam Warren (131+ IP, 3.29 CERA).

There are also plenty of "buy-low" opportunities in this auction, featuring players that are coming off of poor or injury-plagued seasons, such as Adam Wainwright, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, and Hisashi Iwakuma.

What about the draft class?

As you may have heard (due to Anthony Peburn's incessant whining), Marco Estrada (181 IP, 3.13 CERA) missed the cut, and could become a rare $7.5 million draft pick. Bartolo Colon (194+ IP, 4.16 CERA) and Mike Leake (192 IP, 3.18 CERA) are two more mid-rotation inning-eaters that are draft-eligible.

The draft is slim picking on the offensive side. Martin Prado (.288/.338/.394) is the most productive full-time player available. Jay Bruce, Pablo Sandoval, Adam LaRoche, Matt Holliday, and Victor Martinez present some buy-low opportunities.

How much money is out there this year?

Answer: about $188 million more than last year:

On a per-player basis, there is more money in this auction than any other since 2009. In case you've forgotten, 2009 was the year that C.C. Sabathia earned a BDBL record $22 million salary. Johan Santana also broke the $20 million barrier that winter, and Brandon Webb earned a cool $18.5 million. Could history repeat itself? Or has the BDBL grown more frugal with age (and a new Type H rule that forces a minimum of a two year contract, and a one year no-trade clause?)

Which teams will be spending all this money?

Bob Sylvester spent the winter dismantling a team that won 312 games over the past three seasons. The end result is a stripped-down roster and a spending account of a cool $39.3 million. That is the greatest amount of spending cash for any team in the auction since the 2014 Charlotte Mustangs. The Mustangs lost 99 games that year, proving that money isn't everything in the BDBL.

The Chicago Black Sox ($38.9M) and Western Kansas Buffaloes ($38.5M) nearly match Southern Cal in spending cash, and South Carolina ($34M) and Buckingham ($33.5M) aren't far behind. The scariest team on the board, though, is the Los Altos Undertakers, who have $23.9 million to spend, on only seven roster spots. Their average spending per player of $3.4 million is second only to Charlotte ($3.5M).

At the other end of the spectrum, the Niagara Locks are just barely eligible to bid in the auction, as their maximum bid is the auction's minimum, $1 million. They have just $1.9 million to spend on ten players. Mississippi ($5.4M for 12 players) and Ravenswood ($6.1M for 7) are in the same boat.

How does the Class of 2017 look at this point?

The Class of 2017 greatly resembles the Class of 2014, thanks to the new two-year Type H contract rule. Robinson Cano, Ryan Zimmerman, Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, Yadier Molina, Matt Kemp, Edwin Encarnacion, Max Scherzer, Curtis Granderson, Jose Reyes, Scott Kazmir, and Kenley Jansen all return to free agency from that class (only they're now three years older.)

Aside from them, the Class of 2017 will also include Adrian Gonzalez, Jonathan Lucroy, Adam Jones, Adrian Beltre, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, Albert Pujols, Carlos Santana, David Price, Lance Lynn, Michael Pineda, Jordan Zimmerman, Craig Kimbrel, Francisco Liriano, Aroldis Chapman, Nathan Eovaldi, and Clay Buchholz.

All told, it looks like a pretty good group of players with plenty of depth and impact potential. So don't go spending all of your money in one place.