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Commish

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March, 2016

2016 BDBL Farm Report

It's prospect-ranking season, and I'm here again to outrank all the other rankers by stealing all their work and calling it my own. For the newbies, here's how this works: I gather top prospect lists from a "panel of experts", assign 100 points to the top-ranked prospects, 99 to the #2, all the way down to one point for #100. I then sum up the total points, and then tally the points for each team in the BDBL to create the franchise ranking below. This year's panel of experts includes ESPN's Keith Law and the writers from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com.

  Total Pts 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Avg Rank
STL  3,173 1 1 1 3 10 1 24 8 5 11 9 19 10 23 17 12 19 10.2
SAL 2,060 2 13 9 23 23 20 6 10 3 5 8 7 8 1 10 7 1 9.2
NIA 1,948 3 3 2 4 2 14 17 18 17 17 18 11 23 24 6 9 23 12.4
AKR 1,663 4 16 11 14 11 7 5 12 8 23 12 18 21 15 13 2 9 11.8
SCA 1,526 5 17 5 2 5 11 15 17 14 16 11 15 11 9 7 14 15 11.1
LAU 1,455 6 2 3 1 1 19 11 5 2 1 1 2 6 19 2 3 7 5.4
CHI 1,327 7 8 8 13 15 9 1 6 12 2 10 14 2 5 1 8 12 7.8
SCS 1,263 8 6 4 12 8 3 2 2 6 12 5 9 13 2 3 10 17 7.2
KCB 1,052 9 5 17 22 21 23 23 14 18 19 20 13 20 4 22 19 14 16.6
WKB 1,036 10 20 21 23 22 24 18 22 11 24 7 6 5 3 4 6 2 13.4
CLT 1,033 11 7 14 5 3 6 7 4 4 10 21 10 14 17 11 20 24 11.1
BRB 902 12 4 13 8 13 10 12 15 15 7 6 1 1 10 18 18 8 10.1
RAV 890 13 12 19 11 16 17 19 19 19 22 24 23 12 22 20 13 5 16.8
BCJ 699 14 19 24 6 6 13 8 9 23 9 3 12 22 20 21 23 21 14.9
CLE 390 15 10 15 19 19 16 10 21 20 13 19 24 24 21 24 24 20 18.5
NMB 298 16 22 20 16 14 12 14 3 7 15 23 22 15 14 5 1 3 13.1
FLG 269 17 14 22 9 17 5 4 20 22 18 22 8 3 18 15 5 13 13.6
MIS 241 18 9 23 10 20 8 9 1 1 3 16 17 19 7 8 15 10 11.4
KAN 226 19 18 10 7 4 4 22 23 9 4 4 5 4 11 16 11 4 10.3
LVF 203 20 15 16 20 18 22 20 11 10 14 15 21 17 13 23 22 16 17.2
GSL 171 21 23 18 15 9 15 13 16 21 20 17 20 18 6 14 17 11 16.1
BKS 96 22 11 12 21 7 2 3 13 16 6 13 4 16 12 9 4 18 11.1
GLS 67 23 21 6 17 24 18 16 24 24 21 14 16 9 16 19 21 6 17.4
NYG 0 24 24 7 18 12 21 21 7 13 8 2 3 7 8 12 16 22 13.2

#1 St. Louis Apostles
Ranked prospects: Lucas Giolito (3), Alex Reyes (8), Joey Gallo (9), Nomar Mazara (11), Gleyber Torres (27), Jose DeLeon (29), David Dahl (41), Nick Williams (46), Sean Manaea (58), Jacob Nottingham (69), Yadier Alvarez (77), Kyle Tucker (81), Eddy Julio Martinez (84), Kenta Maeda (102)
Unranked prospects: Luis Basabe, A.J. Puk

Over the past three years, the Apostles farm club has lost top-100 prospects Carlos Rodon, Daniel Norris, J.O. Berrios, Andrew Heaney, Jorge Alfaro, Aaron Blair, Kohl Stewart, Tim Anderson, Rusney Castillo, Oscar Taveras, Miguel Sano, Nick Castellanos, Travis d'Arnaud, Clint Frazier, Carlos Martinez, Jose Abreu, Rafael Montero, Michael Choice, Matt Davidson, and Trevor Bauer, either to trade, graduation to the big club, or (tragically) an early demise. And yet, for the third year in a row, the St. Louis farm club not only ranks number one in this report, but blows away the next best farm by a mile.

Bobby Sylvester's mission to own every top prospect in baseball has yielded mixed results so far, yet it seems as though this farm club could turn into a dynasty at any given moment. The present iteration includes three top ten prospects. For the second year in a row, according to our experts, Giolito is the best pitching prospect in baseball. A few other names that have owned that title in this report are: Archie Bradley, Dylan Bundy, Matt Moore, Aroldis Chapman, Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Clay Buchholz, Phil Hughes, Francisco Liriano, and Felix Hernandez. Talk about a mixed bag. At this point, it's difficult to envision Giolito not becoming an ace, but history suggests it's a 50/50 shot at best.

Reyes may be a pot-head, but his stuff is almost comparable to Giolito's. If he can get his head out of the clouds (see what I did there?) the Apostles could add two cheap aces to their already overstuffed rotation by the 2018 season. The team's third top-ten prospect, Gallo, is an Adam Dunn in the making and the odds-on favorite to lead the Apostles in home runs, walks, and strikeouts in 2017.

Mazara's ranking got a huge boost from Baseball Prospectus, which ranked him as the #5 prospect in baseball. Keith Law also ranked Mazara among the top ten (at #9), while the other two members of our panel placed him at #18 and #21. Although it seems as though he has been a prospect forever, he is still only twenty years old. A bit of trivia: I originally acquired Mazara in the third round of the Chapter Four farm draft -- the same draft in which I acquired Kris Bryant, Michael Conforto, and Austin Meadows.

Like Mazara, Torres also played very well as one of the youngest players in his league last season. Keith Law is so high on this kid that he ranked him at #15, and added that Torres could be a top five prospect a year from now. As if the Apostles didn't have enough quality arms already, they added yet another one with De Leon in a deal with Southern Cal this winter. That gives St. Louis three pitchers in the top thirty overall, and three of the top eleven pitching prospects in the game of baseball. Add those three to a young staff that already includes former top-30 prospects Kevin Gausman, Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Carlos Rodon, and Jimmy Nelson, and you have an absurd overabundance of wealth.

Of course, it doesn't end there. It never does with this team, does it? Not only do the Apostles have all of the above arms poised to become aces at any moment, but they also own Maeda, who could be a solid #2 starter in MLB this season, and Puk, who could be among the first pitchers selected in the June draft. Also worth mentioning is Alvarez, who checks in at #77 in this year's ranking despite not having thrown a single professional pitch yet.

As a league, how did we allow this to happen?

#2 Salem Cowtippers
Ranked prospects: Trea Turner (12), Steven Matz (15), Rafael Devers (16), Jon Gray (22), Aaron Judge (35), Jorge Mateo (43), Dominic Smith (65), Amed Rosario (73)
Unranked prospects: Arismendy Alcantara, Nick Banks, Alex Blandino, Renato Nunez, Byung-Ho Park, Corey Ray, Rob Refsnyder, Adrian Rondon, Blake Rutherford, Scott Schebler, J.J. Shwarz, Vladimir Gutierrez, Erik Johnson, John Lamb, Jacob Lindgren, Shohei Otani

It's hard to believe, but it has been thirteen years since the Salem farm system ranked this high in the Farm Report. All it took to get here was a complete dismantling of the roster over the winter and a "just say no" policy on trading the team's top prospects. Of Salem's eight ranked prospects, five were acquired in trades this winter. Turner has a chance to seize an MLB job this spring and could become Salem's everyday starting shortstop and leadoff hitter in 2017. Matz and Gray should also have some impact on the 2017 team, and both pitchers have the tools to become mid-rotation starters (or, hopefully, better.)

ESPN's Keith Law seems to enjoy playing the role of contrarian. He was the only member of our panel to rank both Turner and Matz outside of the top fifteen prospects in the game. Whereas the other members of the panel see both Turner and Matz as potential stars, Law sees an average shortstop and an injury-prone pitcher. Time will tell, as they say.

One player that Law is more bullish on than any of our other experts is Devers, who he ranked seventh. Naturally, I agree with his assessment of Devers eventually become a third baseman with an above-average glove, who will hit 30-35 homers with a high batting average. With the Cowtippers in desperate need of a left-handed bat, I hope that happens sooner than later.

Judge is all projection at this point: a huge dude (who would be the only non-pitcher in MLB history with his height and weight) capable of massive power who hasn't quite put it all together just yet. Mateo gives the Cowtippers two shortstop prospects who could steal fifty or more bases per year at the big league level. Smith and Rosario are both raw, but undeniably talented, players who probably won't see the big leagues until 2018.

The best prospect on this farm club isn't eligible to be ranked in this report. When Otani finally comes to the United States, it will be a very exciting time to be a baseball fan. Banks, Ray, and Rutherford all have a chance to be selected early in the first round of the upcoming MLB draft, and could give Salem three more ranked prospects next year. Keep an eye on Gutierrez as well, as he's a dark horse candidate for the top 100 in 2017, assuming he signs soon enough to get some significant playing time.

#3 Niagara Locks
Ranked prospects: Byron Buxton (2), Tyler Glasnow (10), Lewis Brinson (17), Robert Stephenson (28), Raul A. Mondesi (33), Francis Martes (37), Archie Bradley (90)
Unranked prospects: Elias Diaz, Gabriel Guerrero, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Abraham Gutierrez, Wander Javier, Kyle Lewis, Kevin Maitan, Delvin Perez, Tanner Houck, Mike Nikorak

For the second year in a row the Niagara Locks own one of the top two prospects in baseball, and for the second year in a row that player is Buxton. While he didn't light the MLB world on fire during his brief rookie debut last year, his long track record of success suggests it's only a matter of time before he does. At his peak, he should deliver a performance similar to Michael Brantley, circa 2014, only with better defense.

In the pitching prospects department, Glasnow is ranked behind only St. Louis' dynamic duo of Lucas Giolito and Alex Reyes. He will likely see a lot of MLB playing time this season -- possibly even a full season -- but my bet is that he struggles in his rookie season. He doesn't seem to have the control or command of a big league star quite yet, but he definitely has the potential to get there in short order.

Brinson may be the least-heralded top twenty prospect in baseball. After striking out over 190 times at the Low-A level a few years ago, I wrote him off as someone who would never amount to much. He's cut down on that whiff rate dramatically, though, and now looks like he could become a Mike Cameron type of player (but with less speed.)

I'm less impressed than our experts with Stephenson, Mondesi, and Martes. Purely from a statistical standpoint, I see a pitcher who walks far too many batters, a slap-hitting shortstop with a .240 career batting average, and a rather mediocre looking starter with a short track record of success. The experts, however, see three top-40 prospects. These are three classic cases where the stats simply haven't reflected the scouting reports.

Bradley was once the best pitching prospect in the game, not too long ago, but his stock has fallen like a brick. Like Stephenson, he's had trouble keeping his walk rate below 4.5. He's also battled injuries for most of the past two seasons. His stock has dropped so far that he didn't even make Baseball America's top 100 list after appearing among their top 25 for the last four years in a row.

Ever since winning the lottery with Jurickson Profar and Carlos Martinez, it seems that Mike Ranney keeps returning to the pool of sixteen year old (or younger) Latin Americans, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle once more. Vlad, Jr., Gutierrez, and Maitan represent his latest three Powerball tickets.

#4 Akron Ryche
Ranked prospects: Orlando Arcia (7), Anderson Espinoza (39), Josh Bell (47), Brett Phillips (48), Jake Thompson (60), Daz Cameron (61), Dylan Bundy (72), Luis Ortiz (79), Josh Hader (109)
Unranked prospects: Dom Nunez, Edmundo Sosa, Dan Vogelbach, Austin Bergner, Triston McKenzie, Lewis Thorpe

The last time the Akron Ryche farm system was ranked this high, George W. Bush had just been inaugurated for his first term in office, Carrol O'Connor was still alive, and Albert Pujols was attending his first MLB spring training. To my utter confusion and disdain, the sole reason for this year's high rating lies with one man: Orlando Arcia. He was ranked as high as #6 by MLB.com, and his lowest ranking was #12 by Baseball Prospectus. Known as a glove-first type of shortstop prior to last season, Arcia came out of nowhere to hit .307/.347/.453 at the Double-A level as a 20-year-old. Our panel of experts seems to believe he will continue to hit as he moves up the ladder, and become another four-tool shortstop similar to Francisco Lindor or Asdrubal Cabrera. I don't see it. But then, I didn't see Lindor or Cabrera, either. Apparently, I have a blind spot when it comes to Latin American shortstops.

There was a wide range of opinions on Espinoza among our panel. Baseball America has him ranked as high as #19, while Baseball Prospectus has him all the way down at #73. Unfortunately, BP's scouting report hasn't been posted yet, so I can't explain why they're so far down on him. When I read the scouting reports and look at the stats, I see a frightening amount of potential. You don't see 17-year-old kids post stats like this in the Gulf Coast League: 40 IP, 24 H, 0 HR, 9 BB, 40 K, 0.68 ERA. Julio Urias and Felix Hernandez are the only two pitchers that I know who have posted similar numbers at that age, and that is some select company. Couple the statistics with the scouting reports that show a high-90's fastball and two other plus pitches, and I can't fathom why anyone would rank him outside of the top thirty (at the least.)

Both Bell (#62 a year ago) and Phillips (unranked) moved up in the ranking this year, which is always a good sign. Thompson (#43 last year) moved in the opposite direction, and Bundy (#22 last year) continues to drop like a lead balloon as injuries have nearly completely drained whatever prospect cachet he once had. Baseball Prospectus (#69) was the only expert to rank him among the top 100.

#5 Southern Cal Slyme
Ranked prospects: Yoan Moncada (6), Brendan Rodgers (19), Sean Newcomb (25), Jameson Taillon (54), Jose Peraza (57), Carson Fulmer (92), Jorge Alfaro (101), Max Fried (130)
Unranked prospects: Isan Diaz, Lourdes Gourriel, Yulieski Gourriel, Peter O'Brien, Jermaine Palacios, Wendell Rijo, Mallex Smith, Riley Pint, Sean Reid-Foley

The Slyme tied with the Ryche for the honor of Most Improved Farm System this year, as each team moved up this ranking by eleven spots. What is notable about the Slyme farm is that two of their best prospects, the Gourriel brothers, are not eligible for this ranking. I would imagine that if they were, both would be top thirty (or higher) prospects, and the Slyme would be ranked much higher -- possibly number two. Although some (like Peburn) are writing off the older Gourriel because of his age, it's not like he is in his late-30's. He turns 32 in June, and owns a lifetime average of .333/.415/.576 in Cuba. I'm thinking that he has quite a bit of value left in him. His brother has posted triple-slash lines of .308/.388/.466 and .332/.395/.565 in his most recent two seasons -- and he doesn't turn 22 until October. I'm thinking that Bob Sylvester has pulled off the two greatest steals in BDBL farm draft history since Albert Pujols in the 2001 draft (which, by the way, was also a pick made by the elder Sylvester.)

As for the Cuban refugee who already has some playing time in the U.S. under his belt, Moncada seemed to be a bit of a disappointment last year, given his hype, but he improved enough in the second half to suggest that he could become an above-average second baseman in short order. Given that low ceiling, I believe his top ten ranking is a bit on the high side.

Rodgers came over to the Slyme from a winter deal with the Los Altos Undertakers involving Dellin Betances. Any time you can get a top-20 prospect in exchange for a relief pitcher (no matter how good that pitcher is), it's a win in my book. Sylvester also acquired top-30 prospect Jose De Leon in that deal, but flipped him to St. Louis (along with Andrew McCutchen and others) for Moncada (and others.) So far in his brief professional career, Rodgers looks like he will be at least an average shortstop defensively, with an above average bat capable of 15-20 homers per season.

Newcomb is another hard-throwing lefty prospect with control issues, but who blows away hitters to the tune of a lifetime 11.1 K/9 ratio. Taillon was once a top ten prospect, but hasn't pitched in two full years. He was inexplicably acquired by the Giants this past winter, and then even more inexplicably traded to the Slyme -- along with Zack Wheeler! -- for Kyle Seager.

#6 Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Cory Seager (1), J.P. Crawford (4), Jose Berrios (20), Austin Riley (78), Franklyn Kilome (82), Kolby Allard (83), Alex Jackson (121)
Unranked prospects: Willie Calhoun, Jonatan Machado, Julio Pablo Martinez, Victor Mesa, Jomar Reyes, Tyler White, Junior Fernandez, Jason Groome, Robert Tyler

How does a team that drafts near the bottom of nearly every farm draft for sixteen years end up with the number one prospect in the game of baseball? Not only this year, but three other times in league history this has happened. We are all to blame (myself included) for the Undertakers' absurd dominance of this league, but in this case, we can place the blame for Cory Seager squarely on John Gill's shoulders. In a trade made during the winter of 2014, Gill not only traded Seager to Los Altos, but Joc Pederson, Matt Kemp, and Joe Ross as well, in exchange for Brian McCann and Brett Lawrie. To be fair, Seager didn't look like the #1 prospect in baseball at the time. He was ranked #30 on this page the following spring, and was coming off a good, but not great, season in A-ball. Today, the pundits are wondering if he will win his first MVP award this year or next.

Most people would be content having one top-five prospect (and a shortstop, no less) on their farm club. Not Jeff Paulson. The other shortstop on the Los Altos farm ranked among the top five prospects in the game is someone that Keith Law describes as "a plus defender at short, with high OBP's, speed, and 35-40 doubles a year." Sounds great, doesn't it? Most of us would give our left nut for one such player. How the hell did the Undertakers end up with two? We can thank Bobby Sylvester for that, as he traded Crawford (and Brendan Rodgers!) to the Undertakers two winters ago, getting Oswaldo Arcia in exchange. (Yes, the same Oswaldo Arcia who was just released by the Apostles this winter.)

You would think it would end there, as most competitive teams are compelled to sacrifice their best prospects in trade in order to remain competitive, but that rule doesn't apply to the Undertakers. Instead, they own yet another top-20 prospect and three more in the top 100. But wait; there's more. Waiting in the wings is the probable first overall pick in the June draft, Jason Groome, who will undoubtedly ascend to the top fifty a year from now, keeping this perpetual prospect machine running as efficiently as ever.

As a league, how did we allow this to happen?

#7 Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Bradley Zimmer (21), Andrew Benintendi (23), Franklin Barreto (24), Tim Anderson (34), Trenton Clark (85), Billy McKinney (97), Tyler Stephenson (134)
Unranked prospects: Phillip Ervin, Casey Gillaspie, Eloy Jimenez, D.J. Peterson, Ian Anderson, Pierce Johnson, Rob Kaminsky, Reggie Lawson, Zach Lee

Despite having a draft position near the bottom half last summer, John Gill managed to snag both Benintendi and Stephenson. Benintendi was ranked as high as #15 (by Baseball America) and as low as #46 (by Baseball Prospectus.) He is being touted as a Christian Yelich type of player: high average, high OBP, 10-15 homer potential, decent speed, and a decent glove. As an advanced college player, he should move quickly. Stephenson is more of a long-term project (as is true of most catchers.) Just eighteen years old, he is a long way from primetime, although it's encouraging to Sox fans that he has already ranked among someone's top 100.

Both Zimmer (first round) and Barreto (fourth) were products of Chicago's 2014 winter farm draft. Zimmer is looking like a classic "three true outcomes" type of player. In 647 career at-bats, he has racked up 22 home runs, 76 walks, and 161 strikeouts. He also has 56 stolen bases, and has been caught only 11 times, so there seems to be a little more athleticism to his game than the typical TTO type of player. Barreto held his own as one of the youngest players in his league last year, and looks like he will be an average shortstop across the board, both offensively and defensively.

Yet another shortstop, Anderson's game is all about speed and defense. He strikes out a bit too often (114 times in 513 AB's last year), doesn't walk nearly often enough (24), but racks up lots of triples (12) and stolen bases (49), and has the range to stick at shortstop. He sounds like another Elvis Andrus to me. Clark made it on all four of our panel's top 100 lists, and reached the top 50 (#49) on Baseball America's list. As a high school junior, he was touted as a possible first overall draft pick. As the draft approached, he seemed to lose many of his supporters, and he ended up being selected fifteenth overall. For an 18-year-old just out of high school, he more than held his own in his first taste of pro ball, batting .309/.424/.430 in 207 AB's.

#8 South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked prospects: Julio Urias (4), Blake Snell (12), Ozzie Albies (31), A.J. Reed (32), Chance Sisco (121), Frankie Montas (129)
Unranked prospects: Drew Jackson, Tony Kemp, Patrick Kivlehan, Richard Urena, Domingo Acevedo, Marcos Diplan, Chris Ellis, Alex Lange, Ben Lively, Antonio Senzatela

As measured by our panel of prospect experts each year, the Sea Cats franchise has owned one of the top ten farm clubs in the BDBL thirteen times in seventeen years. Only the Los Altos Undertakers own an average ranking better than South Carolina's, and Chicago and Salem are the only two teams with an average farm rank in the single digits. Salem, Los Altos, and Chicago rank number one, two, and seven on the all-time BDBL franchise wins list, while South Carolina ranks...twenty-third...just ahead of the lowly New York Giants.

We have been told time and again -- and MLB history has verified -- that the way to build a franchise's success is through the farm club. Yet, here we have a franchise that has had a tremendous farm team for seventeen years, and yet nothing to show for it. How can that be? Someone should do write an essay on that topic.

It seems as though I've written on this page before that South Carolina fans have plenty of reason for optimism, given the abundance of talent on their farm, and maybe this is the year that statement holds true. The 'Cats have a pair of very exciting left-handed pitchers on their farm who should -- should -- make a big impact on this ballclub. Urias is ranked as the second-best pitching prospect in the game (behind only St. Louis' Lucas Giolito), and Snell is now the fifth-best pitching prospect. Urias (ranked #8 a year ago) has been no stranger to this page, and it's an incredible accomplishment that he was able to rise in the ranking, given where he was already a year ago. Snell, on the other hand, was a complete unknown a year ago, and didn't rank on anyone's top 100 list. In fact, he wasn't even on any BDBL roster at this time last year.

Albies was ranked as high as #20 (ESPN) and as low as #63 (Baseball America.) He has no power whatsoever (so far), but does everything else on the diamond better than average. Reed posted some ridiculous numbers in college, and has continued to do nothing but mash the ball since turning pro. If prospects were judged solely by their numbers, Reed (.324/.415/.583 career) would be the best prospect in the game.

Aside from the ranked guys, the Sea Cats also have a couple of intriguing arms in the unranked category. Acevedo has an electric arm and can get it up there in triple digits. If he can harness his fastball and add to his secondary pitches, he could bolt up these rankings. Lange was just named the best sophomore in college baseball by Baseball America, and many feel he could be among the first players selected in the 2017 MLB draft.

#9 Kansas City Boulevards
Ranked prospects: Max Kepler (38), Javier Guerra (51), Braden Shipley (54), Reynaldo Lopez (69), Raimel Tapia (95), Kevin Newman (96), Hunter Harvey (99), Touki Toussaint (112), Marco Gonzales (117)
Unranked prospects: Socrates Brito, Braxton Davidson, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Chad Pinder, Nick Senzel, Garrett Whitley, Nathan Kirby, Dillon Overton, Cal Quantrill

After floundering near the bottom of this page for most of the past seventeen seasons, this is now the second year in a row the Boulevards have appeared among the top ten. A big reason for that is this winter's off-season free agent signing of Kepler, who, unfortunately for KC fans, is one of the two most expensive farm players in this report. At $2 million in salary, he will need to perform well from the beginning to earn his salary. Guerra was also selected this winter, but in the farm draft as the ninth overall pick. After two professional seasons in which he hit just two home runs, Guerra went nuts last year and smashed fifteen homers in the Sally League. Scouts are now projecting him as a power-hitting shortstop similar to Miguel Tejada.

Shipley saw his stock drop from #24 to #54 in the past year, while Reynaldo Lopez settled in at #69 two years in a row. Of the two, Lopez (198+ IP, 162 H, 8 HR, 60 BB, 177 K in his milb career) has had the better statistical performance. Shipley wins on scouting, and seemed to fix whatever problem he was having in the second half of the season.

Of the unranked group, Whitley is most intriguing to me. At one time he was touted as a possible 1-1 pick in the 2015 draft. He was selected with the thirteenth overall pick, and signed for nearly $3 million, but then hit just .174/.293/.312 at two levels in his pro debut. His combination of youth, high expectations, ginormous signing bonus, and horrendous pro debut performance puts him in the same company as Rays teammate Adrian Rondon. It will be interesting to see if either of those two turn their careers around in 2016.

#10 Western Kansas Buffaloes
Ranked prospects: Willy Adames (44), Ryan McMahon (45), Grant Holmes (65), Ian Happ (76), Tyler Jay (86), Mark Appel (88), Jack Flaherty (110), Brady Aiken (112), Bobby Bradley (118), James Kaprielian (125)
Unranked prospects: Matt Chapman, Richie Martin, Nick Plummer, Kyle Funkhouser, Stephen Gonsalves

After five straight years of placing among the bottom five in this survey, the Buffaloes franchise now has its first official top ten farm system in the Rodney Wilkie Era. Despite a nearly 100 point drop in his OPS from 2014 to 2015, Adames somehow gained 52 places in the overall ranking. Although he didn't make Keith Law's top 100 list, he ranked as high as #46 by Baseball America. McMahon's 2015 numbers (496 AB, 43 2B, 18 HR, 49 BB, 153 K, .372 OBP, .520 SLG) were eerily similar to his 2014 numbers (482 AB, 46 2B, 18 HR, 54 BB, 143 K, .358 OBP, .502 SLG.) His ranking ranged from #36 (Baseball Prospectus) to #62 (Law.)

I find the names at the bottom of the ranked list more intriguing than the ones at the top. Happ was one of the best hitters of the college class last year, and should move quickly. Appel's talent is well known. If only he could stay healthy, he could become a valuable pitcher as either a starter or closer. Of course, Aiken is also very well known, as he was the #1 overall pick not long ago. And Kaprielian seems to have a lot of scouts on his side as someone who can quickly become a mid-rotation workhorse in the big leagues. Also from the unranked group, keep on eye on Funkhouser's development as a senior. He could be a late-draft sleeper for some MLB team.

#11 Charlotte Mustangs
Ranked prospects: Alex Bregman (26), Manuel Margot (30), Michael Fulmer (63), Brandon Drury (68), Connor Greene (86), Albert Almora (105), Daniel Robertson (115), Tom Murphy (132)
Unranked prospects: Michael Gettys, Cooper Johnson, Mickey Moniak, Spencer Adams, Clayton Blackburn, Oscar de la Cruz

For the sixth year in a row, the top prospect for this franchise was acquired via trade with the Salem Cowtippers. You can look it up. After he was selected with the second overall pick in last year's MLB draft, Bregman got off to a slow start, but then really picked up the pace (.319/.364/.475 in 160 AB) in the second half. He profiles as a Dustin Pedroia type of second baseman: high batting average, high on-base, a little speed, gap power, and excellent defense. Not a bad haul for someone who was acquired in exchange for a closer, a pinch hitter, and a pitcher whose regular season usage had expired (and who turned out to be useless in the playoffs.)

Margot was ranked #63 on this list a year ago. He rocketed to the top thirty after hitting a respectable .271/.326/.419 in half a season at the Double-A level as one of the youngest players in the league. He brings speed, defense, and a keen batting eye to his game, which will play up well at the big league level. He was ranked as high as #14 (by Baseball Prospectus) and as low as #56 (Baseball America.)

Fulmer was ranked between #47-53 by three of our experts, but was dragged down by Baseball Prospectus' #87 ranking. As a former first-round pick with a long track record of success, he has all the tools to become at least a serviceable mid-rotation starter, assuming the usual caveat of good health. Drury looked like a budding power hitter in the California League (but then, doesn't everybody?) In recent years, he looks more like a high-on-base, 10-15 homer-hitting third baseman at his peak. As for Almora, this is the third year in a row he has fallen in this ranking, where he once ranked as high as #26. He looks more and more like a fourth outfielder every year.

#12 Big River Beavers
Ranked prospects: Austin Meadows (18), Jesse Winker (42), Dillon Tate (56), Nick Gordon (89), Yusniel Diaz (111), Gavin Cecchini (116)
Unranked prospects: Micker Adolfo, Cheslor Cuthbert, Nelson Gomez, Rosell Herrera, Joshua Lowe, Max Pentecost, Magneurius Sierra, Kyle Freeland

Meadows reminds me of a young Grady Sizemore. They're roughly the same size, both drafted out of high school, both center fielders (initially), both showing excellent plate discipline, athleticism, and speed in the low minors, both rising up the ladder relatively quickly, and both showing little power in the beginning of their careers. If Meadows has a Sizemore-like career, I'm sure that GM Kyle Robinson wouldn't mind that at all.

Winker has also displayed excellent plate discipline throughout his minor league career, with nearly as many walks (231) as strikeouts (276). He's also left-handed, but that's where the similarities end. He is a left fielder by trade, and lacks the speed or glove of Meadows or Sizemore. But what he lacks in those areas, he more than compensates with power. Frankly, I would rank Winker ahead of Meadows, which is something that none of our four experts did.

It's too early to imagine what type of pitcher Tate might become, as he's only thrown nine professional innings. His scouting reports alone earned him a spot in the top sixty overall, and as high as #36 by MLB.com. It's also too early to hang a label on Gordon, as he's only played the equivalent of a little more than one MLB season as a pro. His triple-slash line over those 716 at-bats (.282/.335/.362) don't exactly scream "future star," but as I mentioned, it's still early in his career. The fact that he was ranked by all four experts speaks to his tools and potential.

Of the rest of the field, keep an eye on Gomez this year. He has yet to play a single game in the U.S., but after signing a huge contract with the Yankees, he hit .243/.350/.435 in the Dominican Summer League, with 11 home runs and a respectable 34/66 walk/strikeout ratio. He just turned eighteen in October, so there is still plenty of room for growth and projection.

#13 Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked prospects: Dansby Swanson (14), Anthony Alford (36), Brent Honeywell (59), Harold Ramirez (75), Roman Quinn (135)
Unranked prospects: Ronald Acuna, Eric Jagielo, Rangel Ravelo, Trevor Story, Phil Bickford, Walker Buehler, Edwin Diaz, Tyler Mahle, Casey Meisner, Luke Weaver

Even after trading Sean Newcomb, Jacob Nottingham, Steven Matz, and Aaron Judge, the Infidels have enough quality prospects remaining to rank in the middle of the pack. Dansby was ranked among the top ten (#8) by MLB.com. At #14 overall, he is the highest-ranked Infidels prospect since Wil Myers (#4) in 2013. Dansby is a five-tool shortstop who should move quickly up the ladder, and could see some significant playing time for Ravenswood by 2018.

Alford was a relative unknown a year ago, yet now ranks among the top forty prospects in the game, and was ranked as high as #25 (by Baseball America.) He was a star football player in college, which tells you all you need to know about his speed, strength, and athleticism, but he was considered to be a raw product until last year. He is a native of Mississippi, which has a reputation for having poor quality baseball programs as there is such an overemphasis on football. But Alford excelled at the Low-A level last year (.293/.418/.394), and actually improved (.302/.380/.444) after a promotion to High-A.

Honeywell was the fourth overall pick of the farm draft this winter, and acquired from St. Louis in exchange for the sixth overall pick, Jacob Nottingham. Since Honeywell ranks ten spots higher than Nottingham, I suppose Ravenswood won that trade (not counting whoever else was swapped as part of that deal.) Honeywell is highly-regarded by the minor league managers, who ranked him as the seventh best prospect in the Midwest League, and ninth best in the Florida State League. His numbers justify those rankings.

A couple of players to keep an eye on are Bickford and Diaz. Bickford was selected in the first round of the MLB draft twice in the past three years. After posting some crazy numbers in junior college last year, he posted some equally impressive numbers in a short sample in his pro debut: 22+ innings, 13 hits, 0 home runs, 6 walks, 32 strikeouts. Diaz has made quiet and steady progress as he has moved up the minor league ladder, and has the potential to make a significant jump in this ranking within the next year.

#14 Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Victor Robles (40), Willson Contreras (52), Jorge Lopez (67), Christian Arroyo (92), Cornelius Randolph (114)
Unranked prospects: Ryan Brett, Jordan Patterson, Chris Shaw, Mac Williamson, Logan Allen, Chris Anderson, Sam Coonrod, Kendry Flores, Jon Harris, Wei-Chieh Huang, Keury Mella, Ashe Russell, Nolan Watson, Alex Young

Despite having a breakthrough season, Robles was such an unknown in the BDBL last year that he slipped through two farm drafts without being selected. That worked out well for the Jamboree, who snagged him with the third overall pick of this winter's draft. Robles was named as the #2 prospect in both the Gulf Coast League and New-York Penn League. His career numbers (.334/.428/.496 in 395 AB, with 9 triples, 7 home runs, and 46 stolen bases) tell you everything you need to know about his offensive game. He's an "80" runner with "70" range in center field. Keith Law hit the nail on the head, writing, "He looks like the player Ben Revere was supposed to be."

Contreras was Bear Country's second pick in this winter's draft, giving GM Matt Clemm two near-top-fifty prospects with the first two picks of the draft. (And yet Peburn only gave Clemm a "B" grade for the draft.) Lopez was also selected in the draft, only in the regular draft, and at a price tag of $1 million. While Lopez should help the Jamboree right away (in 2017), it will likely take time for Contreras to pan out.

I would write something about Bear Country's unranked prospects, but I have no idea who any of them are. I'm pretty sure that Ryan Brett is related to George, so there's that.

#15 Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Clint Frazier (49), Hunter Renfroe (69), Hector Olivera (105)
Unranked prospects: Juan DeLeon, Andres Gimenez, Dae-ho Lee, Tyler Naquin, Bubby Reed, Taylor Ward, Tony Barnette, Matt Bush, A.J. Cole, Seung-Hwan Oh, Mike Siroka

Frazier's performance didn't really match his scouting reports until this past year. From 2014 to 2015, he drastically reduced his strikeout rate (from 161 in 474 AB's to 125 in 501), while increasing his power (from 37 extra-base hits to 55). He now looks like a future power-hitting corner outfielder whose future is as bright as his hair.

Renfroe and Olivera aren't that interesting to me, so instead I'll highlight Cleveland's two Korean imports. Dae-ho Lee is a power-hitting first baseman who slugged 31 home runs in Japan last year at the age of 33. His walk-to-strikeout ratio of 62/109 was better than the power-hitting Korean first baseman that I took in the first round of the draft, but doesn't seem to be as highly regarded by the analysts that I've read. He will likely play this season as the right-hand-hitting platoon partner of Pedro Alvarez in Seattle.

Seung-Hwan Oh is a right-handed reliever who signed with the St. Louis Cardinals this winter. He doesn't have much of a fastball, and appears to be more of a finesse pitcher who tries to get batters to chase his off-speed stuff. He will likely be a member of the 2017 Rocks bullpen, but probably won't make much of a meaningful impact.

#16 New Milford Blazers
Ranked prospects: Michael Kopech (80), Amir Garret (90), Taylor Guerrieri (94)
Unranked prospects: Cristhian Adames, Chris Betts, Keon Broxton, Malquin Canelo, Garin Cecchini, Andy Ibanez, Hyun Soo Kim, Colin Moran, Colin Walsh, Tomohiro Anraku, Matt Krook, Mike Matuella, Kodi Medeiros

After all the back-patting this winter over the Matuella pick, he failed to rank among the top 100 on any of our four experts' lists. Given that he missed the entire 2015 season to injury, that is probably not a surprise. Unfortunately for Rangers and Blazers fans, Matuella has spent the better part of the past three years nursing various types of injuries, from his lat to his back and, now, to his elbow. If he can ever get healthy, he can become a good pitcher, but that is a big "if" right now.

Kopech is a big ol' Texas boy who was drafted by the Red Sox in the first round back in 2014. He impressed opposing managers enough for them to rank him as the tenth best prospect in the South Atlantic League. He still has some work to do, and is a long way from the big leagues, but there is plenty of potential here. The same applies to Garrett, who is a little older at age 23, and has yet to post a walk rate below 3.44 in any season.

Guerrieri missed most of the 2014 season due to injury, but rebounded nicely last year, and progressed all the way to the Double-A level. He was unranked by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, and was ranked at only #85 by MLB.com, but Keith Law is a big fan. Writing that Guerrieri has "ace upside", Law ranked him at #35 on his list. I don't see "ace" when I look at the numbers. Generally, when I see a strikeout rate below 8.0 in the minor leagues, I assume the pitcher will never reach "ace" level, but I suppose there are exceptions to the rule.

Of the unranked group, New Milford's #1 pick of this year's farm draft, Hyun-Soo Kim, has been compared to Nick Markakis both offensively and defensively. Meh.

#17 Flagstaff Outlaws
Ranked prospects: Aaron Blair (50), Kohl Stewart (104), Dylan Cease (127), Andrew Knapp (130)
Unranked prospects: Hunter Dozier, Derek Fisher, Stone Garrett, Francisco Mejia, Tyler Nevin, Ryan O'Hearn, Jose Rondon, Shawn Armstrong, Mike Clevinger, Akeel Morris, Lucas Sims

I'm not sure what happened to Blair last year, but from the numbers alone, it seems he turned from a hard-throwing strikeout machine to a soft-tosser. He posted a strikeout rate of just 6.9 at the Double-A level last year, and 6.6 at Triple-A. Oddly, all of his other numbers seemed consistent. Regardless of whether or not he regains his strikeout ability, he still keeps the ball on the ground and limits his walks. He has the tools (and the opportunity) to be a big league mid-rotation starter as early as this coming season.

Speaking of strikeout rates that fell through the floor in 2015, what on earth happened to Kohl Stewart? He managed just 71 K's in 129+ innings last year -- a rate of just 4.94. I don't know of any pitching prospect with a similar strikeout rate who ever became an impact MLB pitcher. Regardless, Keith Law (always the contrarian) ranked Stewart at #53 -- the only one of our panel to rank him in the top 100. Law expects Stewart to make a big leap this year with a move to Double-A. I just don't see it.

Law was also the only expert to rank Cease, who he ranked at #91. Cease is a young kid with gobs of potential and a fastball that can reach triple digits. He seemed to have some trouble controlling that fastball, based on his walk rate of 6.0 last year, but it was only 24 innings, and he is still on the rebound from Tommy John surgery. It's a little early to write him off, but it's also a little early to rank him among the top 100 prospects.

#18 Mississippi Meatballs
Ranked prospects: Jeff Hoffman (61), Kyle Zimmer (98)
Unranked prospects: Lazaro Armenteros, Will Benson, Tyler Goeddel, Gareth Morgan, D.J. Stewart, Cole Tucker, Yuki Yanagita, Carl Edwards, Jr., Zack Erwin, Riley Ferrell, Clinton Hollon, Justin Hooper, Alex Meyer, Sam Selman

Both Hoffman and Zimmer are tall right-handers who were selected within the first ten picks in the first round of the MLB draft (Hoffman in 2014, Zimmer in 2012.) Both were successful pitchers in college, and both finished last season at the Double-A level. These two pitchers have similar walk rates so far in their minor league careers, similar hit rates, and similar home run rates, but Zimmer has a much higher strikeout rate. Given all of that, why is Zimmer ranked lower than Hoffman by our experts? Each one of the experts ranked Hoffman higher, and Baseball Prospectus is so high on him that they ranked him all the way at #25.

Injuries probably play a key role in these rankings. Zimmer has a long history of various injuries, and has only managed to pitch 216 innings in three and a half years because of that. Hoffman had Tommy John surgery, but appears to be healthy since returning to the mound. All things considered, if I had to choose one of them, I would go with Zimmer, as his upside outweighs any health questions.

Of course, the most intriguing prospect in this farm system is the controversial Armenteros. At just sixteen years old, and with barely any track record of on-field performance at any level, it is impossible to know what type of player he will become. Because his scouting reports are off the charts, he will get a lot of attention over the next year as the bidders line up to make him a very wealthy teenager. He isn't likely to sign until this summer, and isn't likely to play ball until late summer, so we'll have to wait another year before we have any idea whether he's the next Vladimir Guerrero or the next Angel Villalona.

#19 Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: Reese McGuire (73), Cody Bellinger (100), Jorge Polanco (108)
Unranked prospects: Brayan Hernandez, Leodys Taveras, Henry Urrutia, Mark Vientos, Adam Walker, Chris Acosta, Miguel Almonte, Tyler Beede, Ian Clarkin, Hagen Danner, Yoan Lopez

McGuire now has the distinction of being the lowest-ranked top prospect this franchise has ever had, as he barely edges James McDonald (#64) from 2009. The fact that a 20-year-old catcher with a .648 lifetime minor league OPS was ranked at all is a major accomplishment.

After slugging all of four home runs in his first 377 minor league at-bats, Bellinger went nuts last year, hitting 30 home runs in 478 AB's. The fact that he played in the California League probably had something to do with that. Twenty two of his homers were hit on the road. Who is the real Cody Bellinger? We'll find out in a few months.

Polanco earned a cup of coffee as a 21-year-old, which is usually a good sign for a prospect. I'm not all that jazzed about his numbers or his scouting report, but he has a chance to make the starting lineup this year, which means he could contribute to the 'Dogs as early as next year.

#20 Las Vegas Flamingos
Ranked prospects: Cody Reed (52)
Unranked prospects: Trey Mancini, Justin O'Conner, Boog Powell, James Ramsey, Sam Travis, Christian Binford, Beau Burrows, Jharel Cotton, Brian Flynn, Ty Hensley, Adalberto Mejia, Chris Stratton

After a mediocre (to put it kindly) start to his professional career, Reed seemed to turn a corner last year to such an extent that he became a key piece of the trade that sent Johnny Cueto to the Royals. As a left-hander who is particularly tough on lefty batters, I see a LOOGY role in his future, but the pundits in our panel of experts seem to believe he will stick as a starting pitcher.

I seem to write this every year, but the Flamingos seriously need to clean out their prospects closet. Ramsey's prospect status faded two years ago, and he spent the entire 2015 season toiling away in Triple-A as a 25-year-old. It's time to take out the trash, Johnny Bo. Binford posted an ERA north of 5.00 at two different levels in 2015, while striking out less than five batters per nine. Give him the old heave-ho, I say. Hensley has now missed two full seasons in the past four years due to injury. Toss him. Make room for some prospects who could actually have some value as either contributors or as trade bait.

#21 Granite State Lightning
Ranked prospects: Gary Sanchez (64), Forrest Wall (126)
Unranked prospects: Randy Arrozarena, Lucius Fox, Alen Hanson, Luis Yander La O, Desmond Lindsay, Jorge Ona, Jhailyn Ortiz, Daniel Palka, J.B. Bukauskas, Shintaro Fujinami, Jarlin Garcia, Adrian Morejon, Norge Ruiz

Unfortunately for Lightning fans, their top prospect is being paid $2 million this year to occupy a spot on the reserve roster, and will be paid $2 million next year to be a backup catcher unless something terrible happens to Brian McCann. Wall has one of the goofier names in baseball, but he impressed the folks at Baseball America, who ranked him the 90th best prospect in the game.

The names on the unranked list reads like the guest list at Ramon Castro's funeral. Will any of those guys become a valuable major league commodity? Will all of them? Will Ryan trade them all before that happens? The answers are: probably, probably not, and without a doubt.

#22 Buckingham Sovereigns
Ranked prospects: Alex Verdugo (102), Jake Bauers (120), Joe Musgrove (124), Tyler Kolek (132)
Unranked prospects: J.D. Davis, Wilkerman Garcia, Ruddy Giron, Starling Heredia, Michael Reed, Tyrone Taylor, Rowdy Tellez, Yhonathan Barrios, Ray Black, Rookie Davis, Danny Hultzen, Alec Mills, Marcos Molina

The Badgers-- sorry, the Sovereigns (I still can't get used to that) earn this year's award for the largest drop since last year's ranking, falling eleven spots to number twenty two. This is the first time since 2000 that this franchise has not had a prospect ranked among the top 100. The question is: do any of these prospects have a chance to make the top 100 a year from now?

Of this group, I like Garcia as a potential breakout candidate. He more than held his own as a 17-year-old in the Gulf Coast League last year, and was ranked by the league's managers as the sixth best prospect in the league. Despite his fits of dizziness (get it?) Verdugo managed to impress at the High-A level (.385/.406/.659 in 91 AB's) after a mediocre start in Low-A (.295/.325/.394 in 421 AB.) Granted, that High-A performance came in the California League, which consistently inflates offensive numbers. Still, Verdugo has demonstrated the ability to hit for a high average in the past, so at least some of that High-A performance could be for real.

#23 Great Lakes Sphinx
Ranked prospects: Erick Fedde (107), Duane Underwood (118), Matt Olson (136)
Unranked prospects: Jeimer Candelario, Aledmys Diaz, Jose Miguel Fernandez, Josh Naylor, Brandon Nimmo, Rio Ruiz, Kyle Crick, Carson Sands, Jen-Ho Tseng

Fedde was the 18th overall pick of the 2014 MLB draft. He missed the entire 2014 season to Tommy John surgery, and has just 64 professional innings on his resume. His scouting reports suggest that he would have been selected in the first ten picks of the draft if he hadn't been injured. Needless to say, 2016 will be a defining season for him.

Underwood owns a career minor league strikeout rate of just 6.7, which disqualifies him from serious prospect status in my mind. Olson has done nothing but rake at every level for the past four years, and has now drawn more than 100 walks two seasons in a row. He's also slick with the glove at first base, and is nice to his mother. So why is he ranked so low? It's likely due to the fact that he strikes out too much (139 times last year.) Aside from that, I've got nothing.

The most intriguing prospect on this farm club is Fernandez. Once he signs, he should step into a major league lineup immediately and become a high-on-base, high-average hitter unlike any second baseman in the game. Kudos to Scott Romonosky for snagging him all the way down at pick number seven.

#24 New York Giants
Ranked prospects: None. Nada. Zero. Zilch.
Unranked prospects: Michael Chavis, Clint Coulter, Ben DeLuzio, Monte Harrison, Gilbert Lara, Chris Okey, Bubba Starling, Nick Burdi, Chandler Eden, Alec Hansen, Jason Hursh, Connor Jones, Brett Morales, Nick Travieso

Normally, a rebuilding team would rank much, much higher than last. At the very least, you would think a rebuilding team would have been able to sell off some star players for at least one prospect that is good enough to rank among the top 100 on someone's list. But there is nothing normal about the New York Giants. The problem is that this team doesn't have any star players to exchange for top prospects.

Another problem is that GM Jim Doyle keeps trading his top prospects for players that have no value to a rebuilding team. For example, he traded both Zack Wheeler and Jameson Taillon this past winter in exchange for two year rental Kyle Seager. And the one tradeable commodity he had on his roster, Craig Kimbrel, was traded to acquire Taillon in the first place! Not only did he trade his most marketable player for Seager, but he also took Jeremy Hellickson's atrocious contract in the Kimbrel deal.

Has there ever been a greater disaster than the 2016 New York Giants? The Hindenburg? The Titanic? Howard the Duck? Walter Mondale's 1984 presidential campaign? Anything?