March, 2017

Chapter One Recap

Players of the Chapter

Way back in 2011, the Ravenswood Infidels pulled off a massive fourteen-player trade with the Mississippi Meatballs. It was a typical Chapter Five trade where a first-place team (Mississippi) received players with present value in exchange for players with future value. One of those players with future value was a 24-year-old first baseman who had shown some power in the minor leagues, but carried an awful BB/K ratio with that power. He wasn't considered to be much of a prospect at that point, as the highest ranking he ever achieved in Baseball America's top prospects ranking was #65, three years earlier.

That player, Chris Davis, was signed to a four-year contract at the beginning of the next season. He managed to log only two plate appearances in his first year under contract, and only 27 the following year. Then, in 2013, Davis finally paid dividends for Ravenswood, hitting .261/.317/.476 with 28 homers in his first full BDBL season at age 27. He then clubbed 41 homers in his final year under that contract in 2014.

In 2015, Davis was coming off a horrible MLB season in which he hit just .196/.300/.404. Only four teams bid on him in the free agent auction, with Ravenswood submitting the winning bid at $3 million. He rewarded GM Brian Potrafka by rebounding with his best season to date in 2016, hitting .237/.338/.493 with 39 home runs and 98 runs created. He continue to reward Potrafka in Chapter One, hitting .351/.479/.798 with a league-leading eleven home runs and 37.3 runs created.

The Charlotte Mustangs made a similar bid on a free agent in the 2016 auction, and also walked away with the winning bid at $3 million. That free agent, Hanley Ramirez, led the Eck League in Chapter One with a .426 on-base percentage, finished second in slugging at .618, led the league in runs created (28.6), and carried the Mustangs to a first-place start to the 2017 season.

Every once in a while, a prospect flies under the radar of all 24 owners in the BDBL and yet becomes so valuable by the end of the season that an owner pays an outrageous amount of money to select that player in the free agent draft the following season. That is what happened with Danny Salazar, who was selected with the fourth overall pick of the 2014 draft, at the whopping salary of $5 million, after he posted a 3.12 ERA in 52 innings in his MLB rookie debut.

Bobby Sylvester, who took that gamble on the rookie, evidently wasn't pleased with that gamble later in the season, as he released Salazar at the Chapter Four deadline. Mike Stein, who never met a Cleveland Indians prospect he didn't love, then scooped up the $5 million rookie at the Chapter Five deadline. Stein carried that $5 million contract in 2015 despite the fact that Salazar managed to pitch just 58.2 innings for the Rocks. That winter, Stein signed Salazar to a whopping EIGHT-YEAR contract. In the first year of that contract, Salazar went 14-9 with a 4.86 ERA. In the first chapter of his second year under contract, Salazar has earned the EL Pitcher of the Chapter honor after leading the league with a 1.52 ERA and nearly leading the league in all three triple-slash categories (.137/.228/.265).

The Flagstaff Outlaws acquired Zack Greinke and his $18 million salary this past winter in what was supposed to be a salary-dump trade. Instead, Greinke has earned the OL Pitcher of the Chapter honor by starting the 2017 season with a 4-0 record, leading the league with a 2.23 ERA, and posting a .186/.244/.322 triple-slash line.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: The Ridiculous Blazers

We all knew the Blazers would be good this year. They were picked to win the McGowan Division, and also led the Cowtippers in preseason league polling (by a single vote.) But did anyone outside of the Peburn household believe New Milford would be this good?

The Blazers went 22-6 in Chapter One. They went 11-5 at home and 11-1 on the road. They went 19-0 in games where they led after seven innings. They went 9-1 in one-run games and 6-0 in extra innings. And they did it all despite hitting just .256/.335/.434 as a team, and despite using Clayton Kershaw in only two games.

New Milford's pitching absolutely dominated in Chapter One. Jose Quintana (3-2, 2.68 ERA), Matt Moore (3-1, 2.77), and Masahiro Tanaka (4-1, 3.07) carried the starting rotation in Kershaw's absence. Even Shane Greene (2-1, 4.07) didn't suck. The bullpen was phenomenal. Jerry Blevins, Buddy Boshers, Chris Devenski, Craig Kimbrel, and Dustin McGowan combined for a 1.13 ERA in 72 innings, and Kimbrel saved a league-leading twelve games in thirteen opportunities.

The Blazers own a .786 winning percentage and Kershaw, Ian Kinsler (.239/.293/.358), and Mookie Betts (.240/.280/.384) have hardly contributed to the team. It's going to be a long season.

Story #2: Apostles are No Locks

I figured I would save some typing and reuse the headline from the #2 story from last year's Chapter One Review. Like last year, the St. Louis Apostles are off to a surprisingly slow start, and like last year, the Niagara Locks are benefiting from that. As I type, St. Louis trails Niagara by two games in the Person Division. But the chasm between the two teams at this point is even wider than that. Niagara has outscored their opponents by 35 runs, while St. Louis has been outscored by four.

Neither the Locks (.241/.314/.405 as a team) nor the Apostles (.238/.305/.421) are hitting as well as expected so far. On the St. Louis side, Yasmani Grandal (.173/.225/.333), J.D. Martinez (.200/.298/.324), Yoenis Cespedes (.205/.313/.446), and Jedd Gyorko (.208/.257/.479) are all in the middle of massive slumps.

For Niagara, Byron Buxton (.098/.220/.196) is off to a ridiculous start to his rookie season. Jonathan Schoop (.151/.224/.245) is dragging the team down as well. Max Kepler (.246/.296/.415) isn't doing much better.

The big difference between the two teams' performances so far is pitching. Niagara leads the Eck League with a 3.60 team ERA, while St. Louis ranks eighth in that category at 4.22. Jose Fernandez (2-1, 2.98 ERA), Ivan Nova (4-1, 2.74), and Johnny Cueto (0-1, 3.55) are carrying the Niagara starting rotation. Noah Syndergaard (3-0, 1.83) and Rich Hill (2-0, 2.92) are dominating for the Apostles, but Carlos Rodon (1-3, 5.68) has been absolutely abysmal, and Kevin Gausman (0-2, 4.83) hasn't pitched much better.

Last year, the Locks won seventeen games and outscored their opponents by 35 runs. That makes this the second year in a row they have done so in Chapter One. The very next chapter, Niagara was outscored by eight runs and won just thirteen games. They followed that chapter by winning just FIVE games and being outscored by FIFTY runs. Will history repeat itself? Or will the Niagara Locks finally sustain their success and make a run at the division title?

Story #3: Your First Place...Charlotte Mustangs?

The Charlotte Mustangs won just 56 games last season. They were predicted to finish in third place in their division on this page before the season began. Out of the thirteen votes that were tallied in the league's pre-season polling, not one person picked the Mustangs to win this division. Yet, after one full chapter of play, the Mustangs not only lead the Hrbek Division, but they have outscored their opponents by more runs than any other Eck League team.

How are they doing it? With tons of offense. The 'Stangs lead the EL in runs scored with 150. They also lead the league in home runs (41), slugging percentage (.462), and are tied for the league lead in doubles (63). EL Hitter of the Chapter Hanley Ramirez (.314/.426/.618) led the team in several categories and shared the EL home run lead with teammate Adrian Beltre (.324/.381/.578). Corey Dickerson (.309/.349/.667), Addison Russell (.283/.333/.434), Matt Holliday (.275/.356/.425), and Alex Bregman (.294/.400/.647) had productive chapters as well.

My main critique of the Mustangs in the Season Preview was their weak bullpen. Instead, it was their greatest pitching strength in Chapter One. Jake Barrett, A.J. Schugel, Justin Grimm, and Matt Garza (pitching entirely in relief) combined for a 1.90 ERA in 47+ innings. Incredibly, Charlotte managed to win 17 games despite unusually poor performances by Kyle Hendricks (3-2, 4.91 ERA) and Michael Fulmer (2-2, 4.83), arguably the team's #1 and #2 starters.

A little regression is inevitable. Ramirez will fall back to earth a bit, and Hendricks and Fulmer will improve a lot. How that affects Charlotte's standing depends on what the Chicago Black Sox and Cleveland Rocks do from this point forward. Chicago has already made a move to strengthen their bullpen, and we all know that the Black Sox have a habit of kicking into a higher gear after Chapter One. It's also worth noting that all three of the other teams in the Hrbek Division have been outscored their year, but by less than ten runs. This division appears to be very much up for grabs.

Story #4: Bear Country's Hibernation

This winter, I wrote in the Season Preview that the 2017 Bear Country Jamboree could surpass the 896 runs scored by the Los Altos Undertakers a year ago. I noted that their greatest strength was "perhaps the strongest offense in the BDBL." It appears, however, that the Jamboree offense is still in hibernation.

The Jamboree are hitting just .234/.300/.395 as a team. All three triple-slash categories are below league-average. They have scored just 115 runs, good for eighth in the Ozzie League. Rookie Willson Contreras is hitting just .133/.204/.200 -- 441 points below his MLB OPS. Ryan Braun (.189/.265/.340) and Brandon Belt (.198/.312/.226) are both hitting at a level that isn't much higher than the Bear Country pitching staff (.105/.121/.158).

Nelson Cruz has smacked eight homers, and Brian Dozier has launched nine, but they aren't hitting much else beside the longball. Cruz is at .210/.303/.486 with 33 whiffs in 28 games, and Dozier sits at .222/.254/.487 with 30 K's. The only batter performing anywhere near his MLB numbers is Daniel Murphy (.343/.410/.578). And for whatever bizarre reason, Andrelton Simmons is hitting .326/.352/.512.

After one chapter of play, Bear Country is sitting at 13-15. They're already seven games behind in the division, and trail by the same number of games in the wild card. Another chapter like this one, and Matt Clemm could be shopping a ton of power hitters on the Selling forum.

Story #5: BDBL Weekend, Spring Edition

Spring Training has become as much of an annual tradition for me as the trip to Grandma's house during Christmas. Not only is it a euphoric experience to escape the New England winter and bask in the Arizona sun while watching a few ballgames, but this annual trip usually gives me the chance to reconnect with some old friends. This year was no exception.

Ryan and I made an unexpected visit to the airport on Friday evening, as a "weather event" put our weekend travel plans in jeopardy. If we hadn't managed to snag a couple of seats on that Friday night, we likely would not have been able to attend at all. Luckily, we did make it, and arrived in Phoenix late Friday (and made it to our hotel even later thanks to the airport Hilton's shitty shuttle service.)

We rented a car the next morning and bought some last-minute tickets to a White Sox-Rangers game. As became our habit throughout the week, we simply stood in the shade behind home plate until it became evident that some of the seats in the shade in front of us would remain empty. After the game, we made a few attempts to connect with some friends, but those plans didn't materialize.

Bob Sylvester and his wife, Donna, were kind enough to allow us to stay at their place at the Luke Air Force Base on Saturday night. I then left early Sunday morning to meet Tony Chamra and his posse. Tony and his father, Andy, had rented a place through AirBnB with a group of friends. It was a pretty nice place, complete with a pool, a pool table, and four bedrooms. Later that afternoon, we met Bob, Ryan, Greg Newgard, and Matt Clemm at yet another White Sox-Rangers game.

Monday was a double-header for our group. We watched the Cubs and Padres in the afternoon, and then the Giants and Rangers that evening. Between games, Bob and Donna hosted us at their place. We played Corn Hole in the back yard, and Donna served us a delicious paia meal.

Tuesday was a real treat, as Bob gave us a tour of the Air Force base, including up-close looks at a fleet of F-16's and F-32's and a visit to the control tower. We watched fighter jets take off and land from the tower, and then had a nice lunch at the commissary.

With a winter storm bearing down on New England, it looked as though we might be stranded in Phoenix through the weekend at one point. We received a last-minute text from my wife, however, letting us know that there was a flight available that evening. So, Ryan and I packed our things and headed to the airport that night -- but not before Matt entertained us with his homemade trivia games.

As always, we all had a tremendous time talking baseball, eating horribly unhealthy food, drinking lots of beer, and soaking in the sun. If you've never been, I highly recommend it.