August, 2017

Chapter Four Recap

Players of the Chapter

When the Kansas Law Dogs won the bidding on J.A. Happ in this past winter's free agent auction, many considered it to be a bargain. Although Happ was 32 years old and coming off a career year that few could have predicted, he would give the Law Dogs far more than $7.5 million in production -- especially when compared to the prices fetched by lesser pitchers in the auction and draft.

Until this past chapter, Happ looked to be a bit of a disappointment. He sported a 7-3 record, but with a mediocre 4.23 ERA and mediocre peripherals. He turned it all around in Chapter Four, going 4-1 with an EL-leading 2.01 ERA. He also finished in the top three in all three triple-slash categories, holding opponents to a .203/.258/.311 batting line. He is our EL Pitcher of the Chapter.

On the OL side, take your pick of Blazers starters. Jose Quintana (1.19 ERA), Clayton Kershaw (1.45), and Matt Moore (1.78) finished #2, #3, and #4 in the OL in ERA. Kershaw led the league in strikeouts. Quintana led in lowest OPS allowed. He, Kershaw, and Moore finished #1, #3, and #4 in that category. Since Moore went a perfect 5-0 on the chapter, I guess we'll give it to him.

Mike Trout led the Eck League in runs created, OBP, slugging, runs scored, and home runs in Chapter Four, but frankly, I'm sick and tired of giving him the Hitter of the Chapter award. The performance of one other EL player is impossible to ignore, especially since it comes from such an unlikely source. This South Carolina Sea Cat led the EL in batting average (.424!) in Chapter Four, finished second only to Trout in OBP (.465), and finished fourth in slugging (.772!) He led the EL in hits and doubles, and finished second to Trout in runs created -- 4.7 more than David Ortiz! Who is this mystery man? Your EL Hitter of the Chapter is...Tyler Flowers.

Dexter Fowler seemed like a bit of a reach when Ravenswood shelled out a whopping $7 million to him during the auction. Although he has been a disappointment in MLB, he has been worth every penny in the BDBL. Fowler continued his hot hitting in Chapter Four, leading the OL in batting (.387), OBP (.486), runs scored (23), and runs created (32.6). He is your Chapter Four OL Hitter of the Chapter.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: The Quietest Chapter Five Deadline Ever

Only five trades were made before the final trading deadline of the season. Think about that. In every other season in league history, the Chapter Five deadline has been marked by furious trading activity as the competitors jockey for position and the have-nots scramble to sell the last of their stars. Not only did we see hardly any activity this year, but none of the trades made at the final deadline were of the "blockbuster" variety. In fact, one of those five trades involved two sub-.500 teams.

What gives?

Well, for one thing, most of the competitive teams had already made their big moves prior to the final deadline. The VORP cap certainly restricted several teams (notably, Niagara) from making big moves. The strongest teams in the league had no real need to add to their depth, and with such a lack of competition, there was no need to gamble away any more of the future to overload their already-bloated rosters for the Tournament of Randomness.

And, without question, a major factor adding to the lack of activity this past chapter was...

Story #2: Why Bother?

As inevitable as the past two seasons have seemed, this year, in particular, seems rather pointless. Not one, but two, teams are on pace to win 121 games. Two others are on pace to win more than 100. The Salem Cowtippers have won nearly two out of every three games they have played this season -- and they are fourteen games behind in the division race. The Bear Country Jamboree are playing .558 baseball -- and they are seven games behind the Cowtippers!

All-too-quietly, we set a new BDBL record last season with a wins standard deviation of 21.0. Basically, what this means is that this was the widest gap between the "have's" and "have-not's" in league history. This year, that figure is a projected 19.8. This would be the second-highest standard deviation in history. You have to travel back in time all the way to 2002 to see a figure that even comes close to approaching this level.

You remember 2002? That was the year the Litchfield Lightning won 113 games...and finished second place in their division. It was the year we had four 100-win teams competing in the OL playoffs. Both New Milford and Southern Cal lost more than 110 games that year. Fun times.

As each year goes by, that gulf between the have's and have-not's grows wider and wider:

Is it time to panic over this? Of course not. It is something we should watch closely over the coming years, however. A league where more than half the teams have no chance of competing isn't one that can possibly survive.

Story #3: New Milford's Pitching

The Blazers now own a team ERA of 2.56. The next-closest team, the Undertakers, are more than half a run behind at 3.22. The league record, as I seem to mention every chapter on this page, is 2.62. When recently questioned as to why his team's pitching staff was performing so far above all rational expectations, Anthony Peburn responded that the Blazers' defense "could be the greatest of all time."

If only there were some way to test that claim. Unfortunately, defensive metrics being what they are, I wouldn't know how to begin to do so. What we do know is that New Milford -- once again -- leads the entire BDBL in lowest average on balls in play, at .268. The next-closest team using this metric is Ravenswood, at .277. The league average is a whopping .303. By my calculations, that makes New Milford's defense 13% better than league average (assuming that BABIP is primarily defense-driven.)

In MLB 2016, New Milford pitchers posted a 3.18 team ERA. If we simply take 13% off that number, we get 2.77. We're getting closer. Take into consideration the changes in splits usage between MLB and BDBL, the ballpark factor differences, strength of schedule, and sheer bullshit luck, and it's within the scope of reason that in any one particular simulation, New Milford's pitching staff could plausibly post a 2.56 ERA.

Granted, for that to happen, everything -- everything -- must fall New Milford's way. Every random dice roll must land on exactly the right number at all times. And so far, it has. The Baseball Gods love them some Blazers.

Story #4: Black Sox...Back in the Race?

Stop me if you've heard this one before: the Chicago Black Sox got off to an unexpectedly slow start, John Gill threw in the towel and tried to sell off his entire roster, the team then turned their fortunes around immediately, and Chicago went on to win the division. With the exception of that last part, which remains to be seen, the 2017 Black Sox are following the same pattern as seemingly every other team in Black Sox history.

Chicago sits at 53-51 on the season -- six games behind the Charlotte Mustangs. They went 14-10 last chapter, besting the Mustangs by a single game. Over the past two chapters, the two teams have posted the same record of 28-20.

Although a six-game lead with two chapters remaining sounds like a comfortable margin, we have seen teams blow such a lead in recent years. With eight head-to-head games remaining between Chicago and Charlotte, there is a plausible window of opportunity for Chicago to capture the lead.

Charlotte GM Tony Chamra made a couple of deals last chapter to load up for the stretch run, adding Carlos Gonzalez and a couple of bullpen arms. This may be the only pennant race worth watching over the next three months.

Story #5: Great Lakes and Kansas, Neck-and-Neck

The Kansas Law Dogs (16-8 last chapter) bested their division rivals, the Great Lakes Sphinx, by two games last chapter. That narrowed the Sphinx's lead to just one game as we head into the final two chapters of the season. With the Buckingham Sovereigns trailing Kansas by six games in the wild card race, it would take an epic flop for both Kansas and Great Lakes to miss the playoffs.

The St. Louis Apostles (66-38) own the best record in the league, and seem to be gaining momentum as the season progresses. The Mustangs (59-45) own the worst record of the current four EL playoff teams. It seems likely that St. Louis and Charlotte, then, would face each other in the Division Series. That leaves Kansas and Great Lakes to battle it out in their own Division Series. Given the season-long battle between these two brawlers, and Kansas' 6-2 advantage so far this season, that would make for a very interesting match-up.