January, 2017
2017
Draft Day Preview
The Most Wonderful Time of the Year is
upon us. Nothing gets the adrenaline flowing and the blood boiling quite
like Draft Day. Well, not until the playoffs begin, that is. (Or, if
you're Brian Potrafka, any regular season series.) This year's auction
is notable for the depth of this year's free agent class and the amount
of money that some notable teams have to spend. Rest assured that by the
end of January, there will be a few new superteams in the league
surrounded by a sea of disappointment and bitterness. Oh, what a
rewarding and relaxing hobby we have.
How does this year's auction
class compare to others?
From a VORP standpoint, this is the
strongest auction class that we've seen since George W. Bush was
president:
2003: 2,006.9
2004: 2,210.3
2005: 2,155.9
2006: 1,903.2
2007: 1,858.0
2008: 1,522.4
2009: 1,239.8
2010: 1,475.4
2011: 1,230.1
2012: 995.3
2013: 947.0
2014: 1,237.1
2015: 898.1
2016: 1,146.6
2017: 1,532.9
If we tally only the top ten, we see that this class ranks near the
all-time average of 540.7:
2003: 729.6
2004: 680.8
2005: 762.0
2006: 621.8
2007: 654.2
2008: 579.5
2009: 524.4
2010: 582.9
2011: 488.3
2012: 415.6
2013: 373.5
2014: 434.9
2015: 314.6
2016: 425.3
2017: 523.1
What this means is that
this auction class has great depth compared to the more recent classes.
There is depth at multiple positions, which allows a team that lost the
bidding for one player to sign a similar player later in the auction.
Max Scherzer, David Price, Rick Porcello, and JA Happ are all quality,
front-end, starting pitchers. Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, and Zach
Britton are all lights-out closers.
Several impact bats are
available in the infield, including Freddie Freeman, Robinson Cano,
Eduardo Nunez, Carlos Santana, Jonathan Villar, David Ortiz, Edwin
Encarnacion, Adrian Beltre, and Ian Kinsler. In the outfield, Matt Kemp,
Dexter Fowler, Curtis Granderson, Khris Davis, and Adam Jones provide
plenty of pop. Even the catching position, which has been traditionally
shallow in depth, includes three quality full-time options in Yadier
Molina, Jonathan Lucroy, and Wilson Ramos.
By my count, I see
seventeen players who could go "Type H", compared to twenty last year.
This tells me that my count is probably wrong, and we will see some
surprising bids -- even without the presence of Jim Doyle.
What about the draft class?
It would be a shocking turn of events
if Mark Melancon isn't the first overall pick of the draft. The question
is whether his salary will be $7.5 million or $5 million. Not counting
Cliff Lee (2015) and Jake Peavy (2011), who were starting pitchers used
as relievers, there have been only seven relievers in BDBL history who
earned $7.5 million or more. The most recent was Francisco Rodriguez,
who earned $7.6 million in 2010. The last reliever to be drafted (or
signed at auction) at a salary of $7.5 million or more was Billy Wagner,
who was signed by Corona at $8 million in 2006. Eric Gagne ($7.5MM in
2004), Mariano Rivera ($8MM in 2003), Troy Percival ($8MM in 2003), Robb
Nenn ($10MM in 2001), and the legendary Matt Mantei ($10MM in 2000) were
also signed at $7.5MM or more.
There is considerable depth among the
draft class as well. Aside from Melancon, this draft class will also
include reclamation projects Jordan Zimmerman, Clay Buchholz, Yovani
Gallardo, Michael Brantley, Garrett Richards, Mike Moustakas, Shin-Soo
Choo, David Wright, and Jacoby Ellsbury among many others.
How much money is out there this year?
Every single year, Anthony Peburn
issues his transparent scare-tactic Doomsday warning that "there is a
lot of money out there this year." For once, he's right:
Year |
Total cash
available ($MM) |
# of free
agents needed |
Cash per
player ($MM) |
$ spent in
auction
($MM) |
2003 |
$557.1 |
360 |
$1.55 |
$328.5 (59%) |
2004 |
$606.2 |
343 |
$1.77 |
$363.5 (60%) |
2005 |
$498.2 |
292 |
$1.71 |
$318.0 (64%) |
2006 |
$621.3 |
327 |
$1.90 |
$341.5 (55%) |
2007 |
$569.0 |
296 |
$1.92 |
$364.5 (64%) |
2008 |
$595.5 |
320 |
$1.86 |
$324.0 (54%) |
2009 |
$543.3 |
292 |
$1.86 |
$289.5 (53%) |
2010 |
$417.5 |
261 |
$1.60 |
$289.5 (69%) |
2011 |
$472.9 |
295 |
$1.60 |
$269.0 (57%) |
2012 |
$361.0 |
267 |
$1.35 |
$214.5 (59%) |
2013 |
$511.8 |
293 |
$1.75 |
$272.0 (53%) |
2014 |
$489.0 |
297 |
$1.64 |
$296.5 (61%) |
2015 |
$352.5 |
275 |
$1.28 |
$201.0 (57%) |
2016 |
$540.9 |
291 |
$1.85 |
$278.5 (51%) |
2017 |
$589.7 |
306 |
$1.93 |
TBD |
There is more free cash, per player,
this year than we've seen in any other auction in league history. The
inevitable consequence is that we will see more inflation in the auction
and draft than we have in years past. However, it's worth noting that
many of the teams that have the greatest amount of money to spend are
presumably not contending this year, and thus are less likely to bid on
the most desirable players in the auction. Which brings me to the next
question...
Which teams will be spending all this money?
Last year, no team had more than $40
million in spending cash. This year, two teams have that distinction:
Kansas ($43.3MM) and South Carolina ($40.4MM). To the best of my
researching ability, I believe that Kansas' spending total this year is
a new BDBL record. This is nothing new for Chris Luhning. Every year he
spends a crapload of money in the auction, signs a crapload of Type H
free agents, wins 100+ games, and then completely dismantles his team in
the winter by shedding tens of millions in salary. I have no doubt that
he will be involved in almost every bidding war that takes place this
winter.
South Carolina, Myrtle Beach ($37.5MM
in available cash), and South Loop ($36.6MM) don't look like contenders
on paper, but with all that money, perhaps they can buy themselves into
contention. The most dangerous team in the auction is the Charlotte
Mustangs, who already have a decent core of players on their roster, but
also have a whopping $36.1 million to spend on free agents.
Western Kansas ($34.5MM) and Las Vegas
($33MM) also have over $30 million to blow on aging vets. Most
irritating of all are New Milford ($29.7MM) and Los Altos ($23.3MM), who
have enough money to build a superteam on top of their already existing
superteams.
At the bottom of the pile, we have
Great Lakes ($3.3MM), Big River ($7MM), and Buckingham ($9.8MM), who
will all likely be spectators in this auction.
How does the Class of 2018
look at this point?
Looking ahead, next year's auction
class looks very deep on offense: Anthony Rizzo, Jose Bautista, Jose
Altuve, Yoenis Cespedes, Charlie Blackmon, D.J. LeMahieu, Brandon Belt,
Nelson Cruz, Brian Dozier, Carlos Gonzalez, Todd Frazier, Jason Kipnis,
Andrew McCutchen, Troy Tulowitzki, Jean Segura, Hanley Ramirez, Mike
Napoli, and Dustin Pedroia.
Starting pitching does not look like a
strength for this auction class at this point. But then again, Rick
Porcello was such an afterthought a year ago that I didn't even mention
him in this section. Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana, Carlos Carrasco, Gio
Gonzalez, Jeff Samardzija, and Johnny Cueto will all be free agents at
the end of this season.
As far as bullpen arms go, Andrew
Miller, Wade Davis, Cody Allen, and Kelvin Herrera appear to be the best
of the lot at this point. |