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Commish

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January, 2017

2017 Draft Day Preview

The Most Wonderful Time of the Year is upon us. Nothing gets the adrenaline flowing and the blood boiling quite like Draft Day. Well, not until the playoffs begin, that is. (Or, if you're Brian Potrafka, any regular season series.) This year's auction is notable for the depth of this year's free agent class and the amount of money that some notable teams have to spend. Rest assured that by the end of January, there will be a few new superteams in the league surrounded by a sea of disappointment and bitterness. Oh, what a rewarding and relaxing hobby we have.

How does this year's auction class compare to others?

From a VORP standpoint, this is the strongest auction class that we've seen since George W. Bush was president:

2003: 2,006.9
2004: 2,210.3
2005: 2,155.9
2006: 1,903.2
2007: 1,858.0
2008: 1,522.4
2009: 1,239.8
2010: 1,475.4
2011: 1,230.1
2012: 995.3
2013: 947.0
2014: 1,237.1
2015: 898.1
2016: 1,146.6
2017: 1,532.9


If we tally only the top ten, we see that this class ranks near the all-time average of 540.7:

2003: 729.6
2004: 680.8
2005: 762.0
2006: 621.8
2007: 654.2
2008: 579.5
2009: 524.4
2010: 582.9
2011: 488.3
2012: 415.6
2013: 373.5
2014: 434.9
2015: 314.6
2016: 425.3
2017: 523.1

What this means is that this auction class has great depth compared to the more recent classes. There is depth at multiple positions, which allows a team that lost the bidding for one player to sign a similar player later in the auction. Max Scherzer, David Price, Rick Porcello, and JA Happ are all quality, front-end, starting pitchers. Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, and Zach Britton are all lights-out closers.

Several impact bats are available in the infield, including Freddie Freeman, Robinson Cano, Eduardo Nunez, Carlos Santana, Jonathan Villar, David Ortiz, Edwin Encarnacion, Adrian Beltre, and Ian Kinsler. In the outfield, Matt Kemp, Dexter Fowler, Curtis Granderson, Khris Davis, and Adam Jones provide plenty of pop. Even the catching position, which has been traditionally shallow in depth, includes three quality full-time options in Yadier Molina, Jonathan Lucroy, and Wilson Ramos.

By my count, I see seventeen players who could go "Type H", compared to twenty last year. This tells me that my count is probably wrong, and we will see some surprising bids -- even without the presence of Jim Doyle.

What about the draft class?

It would be a shocking turn of events if Mark Melancon isn't the first overall pick of the draft. The question is whether his salary will be $7.5 million or $5 million. Not counting Cliff Lee (2015) and Jake Peavy (2011), who were starting pitchers used as relievers, there have been only seven relievers in BDBL history who earned $7.5 million or more. The most recent was Francisco Rodriguez, who earned $7.6 million in 2010. The last reliever to be drafted (or signed at auction) at a salary of $7.5 million or more was Billy Wagner, who was signed by Corona at $8 million in 2006. Eric Gagne ($7.5MM in 2004), Mariano Rivera ($8MM in 2003), Troy Percival ($8MM in 2003), Robb Nenn ($10MM in 2001), and the legendary Matt Mantei ($10MM in 2000) were also signed at $7.5MM or more.

There is considerable depth among the draft class as well. Aside from Melancon, this draft class will also include reclamation projects Jordan Zimmerman, Clay Buchholz, Yovani Gallardo, Michael Brantley, Garrett Richards, Mike Moustakas, Shin-Soo Choo, David Wright, and Jacoby Ellsbury among many others.

How much money is out there this year?

Every single year, Anthony Peburn issues his transparent scare-tactic Doomsday warning that "there is a lot of money out there this year." For once, he's right:

Year Total cash available ($MM) # of free agents needed Cash per player ($MM) $ spent in auction
($MM)
2003 $557.1 360 $1.55 $328.5 (59%)
2004 $606.2 343 $1.77 $363.5 (60%)
2005 $498.2 292 $1.71 $318.0 (64%)
2006 $621.3 327 $1.90 $341.5 (55%)
2007 $569.0 296 $1.92 $364.5 (64%)
2008 $595.5 320 $1.86 $324.0 (54%)
2009 $543.3 292 $1.86 $289.5 (53%)
2010 $417.5 261 $1.60 $289.5 (69%)
2011 $472.9 295 $1.60 $269.0 (57%)
2012 $361.0 267 $1.35 $214.5 (59%)
2013 $511.8 293 $1.75 $272.0 (53%)
2014 $489.0 297 $1.64 $296.5 (61%)
2015 $352.5 275 $1.28 $201.0 (57%)
2016 $540.9 291 $1.85 $278.5 (51%)
2017 $589.7 306 $1.93 TBD

There is more free cash, per player, this year than we've seen in any other auction in league history. The inevitable consequence is that we will see more inflation in the auction and draft than we have in years past. However, it's worth noting that many of the teams that have the greatest amount of money to spend are presumably not contending this year, and thus are less likely to bid on the most desirable players in the auction. Which brings me to the next question...

Which teams will be spending all this money?

Last year, no team had more than $40 million in spending cash. This year, two teams have that distinction: Kansas ($43.3MM) and South Carolina ($40.4MM). To the best of my researching ability, I believe that Kansas' spending total this year is a new BDBL record. This is nothing new for Chris Luhning. Every year he spends a crapload of money in the auction, signs a crapload of Type H free agents, wins 100+ games, and then completely dismantles his team in the winter by shedding tens of millions in salary. I have no doubt that he will be involved in almost every bidding war that takes place this winter.

South Carolina, Myrtle Beach ($37.5MM in available cash), and South Loop ($36.6MM) don't look like contenders on paper, but with all that money, perhaps they can buy themselves into contention. The most dangerous team in the auction is the Charlotte Mustangs, who already have a decent core of players on their roster, but also have a whopping $36.1 million to spend on free agents.

Western Kansas ($34.5MM) and Las Vegas ($33MM) also have over $30 million to blow on aging vets. Most irritating of all are New Milford ($29.7MM) and Los Altos ($23.3MM), who have enough money to build a superteam on top of their already existing superteams.

At the bottom of the pile, we have Great Lakes ($3.3MM), Big River ($7MM), and Buckingham ($9.8MM), who will all likely be spectators in this auction.

How does the Class of 2018 look at this point?

Looking ahead, next year's auction class looks very deep on offense: Anthony Rizzo, Jose Bautista, Jose Altuve, Yoenis Cespedes, Charlie Blackmon, D.J. LeMahieu, Brandon Belt, Nelson Cruz, Brian Dozier, Carlos Gonzalez, Todd Frazier, Jason Kipnis, Andrew McCutchen, Troy Tulowitzki, Jean Segura, Hanley Ramirez, Mike Napoli, and Dustin Pedroia.

Starting pitching does not look like a strength for this auction class at this point. But then again, Rick Porcello was such an afterthought a year ago that I didn't even mention him in this section. Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana, Carlos Carrasco, Gio Gonzalez, Jeff Samardzija, and Johnny Cueto will all be free agents at the end of this season.

As far as bullpen arms go, Andrew Miller, Wade Davis, Cody Allen, and Kelvin Herrera appear to be the best of the lot at this point.