March, 2018

Chapter One Recap

Players of the Chapter

Two years ago, KC Boulevards GM Scot Zook paid $9 million for second baseman Robinson Cano. At the time, it seemed like an overreach. The Boulevards weren't expected to compete in a division that most considered to be the toughest in the BDBL. Cano was on the wrong side of thirty, and although he hit a career-high of 39 home runs in MLB 2016, it seemed as though his performance was trending downward. Well, someone forgot to inform Cano of this, apparently. In Chapter One, he led the OL in batting (.391), OBP (.441), and slugging (.707), and ranked second in runs created (29), easily winning our Hitter of the Chapter award.

At the Chapter Three deadline last year, Tony Badger made a deal with the Myrtle Beach Hitmen in which he attempted to solidify his lineup for the stretch run. With his Sovereigns battling for a spot in the playoffs, Badger traded four players in exchange for Albert Pujols, Marwin Gonzalez, and Cody Selock. Maybe he realized at that time that Gonzalez would become the key to that trade and the driving force in his 2018 lineup. Or maybe he just got lucky. Whichever the case, Gonzalez (.343/.424/.639, with a league-leading 30.3 runs created) is our EL Hitter of the Chapter.

When Tony Chamra made Michael Fulmer a franchise player this past winter, I questioned the wisdom of that assignment. Boy, is my face red! Fulmer led the EL in ERA (1.10) in Chapter One, and was the only qualified pitcher in the EL to rank among the top-five in batting average allowed (.205), OBP allowed (.263), and slugging allowed (a league-leading .216.) He is the EL Pitcher of the Chapter.

Chase Anderson owns a 4.82 career ERA in the BDBL, and a record of 19-27. But that is all in the past now. Presently, he is the best pitcher in the Ozzie League. South Loop's de facto ace is limited in usage this season, but so far, he is making the most out of the little time he has. He ranks #2 in the league in ERA (1.26), and leads the league in all three triple-slash categories (.165/.225/.252). Incredibly, despite that, he went just 2-1 in his five starts.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Flagstaff's Pitching

The Flagstaff Outlaws lead the Ozzie League in wins (21) and runs differential (40). This, despite the fact that Flagstaff ranks ninth in the OL in runs scored, and is hitting just .254/.321/.455 as a team. If you guessed that their pitching has carried them so far this season, you win a gold star.

The Outlaws own a ridiculous 2.50 team ERA, and have held opponents to a .625 OPS. Both figures rank number one in the BDBL. Their starting pitchers have tossed a "quality start" in EIGHTY-TWO PERCENT of their games so far this season. The next-highest quality-start percentage? 57 percent.

Their bullpen has saved 87% of their opportunities (a BDBL high), and has allowed only -- get this -- TWO inherited runners to score all season! Needless to say, their 5.9% inherited runs scored percentage ranks atop the entire BDBL, with the Los Altos Undertakers' 14.3% coming in a distant second.

J.C. Ramirez and Alex Wood started seven games last chapter. In 44 combined innings, they allowed just four runs. FOUR. That's a combined ERA of 0.81. Ryan Buchter, Jake McGee, Blake Parker, and Nick Goody combined to pitch 54.1 innings out of the bullpen. They allowed just eight earned runs -- a combined ERA of 1.32.

Thanks to their surprisingly feeble offense, the Outlaws played sixteen one-run games in Chapter One. (No other team played more than thirteen.) Not surprisingly, Flagstaff went 11-5 in those games.

Flagstaff's offense will not continue to slump forever. Elvis Andrus is hitting just .174/.200/.321 so far this season. Aaron Judge has nine home runs, but is batting just .216. When those two start hitting (and they will), the Outlaws could put this pennant race in the rearview and begin prepping for the postseason.

Story #2: Break Up the...Flamingoes?

Raise your hand if you saw the Las Vegas Flamingoes running away with the Benes Division this year. Since only three of you voted for Vegas to win this division, the rest of you can lower your hands. After one chapter of play, no Ozzie League team owns a bigger division lead than the Flamingoes. They are the only team in the division that has out-scored their opponents this season.

How are they winning? Hitting, hitting, hitting. Vegas not only leads the OL in runs scored (155), but they are lapping the field. They've scored 15 more runs than the next-best team in the league, and 26 more than the third-best! Their 54 home runs not only rank #1 in the OL, but it's ten more than the next-best total! In addition to runs and home runs, they lead the OL in slugging and walks as well.

Adam Eaton (.364/.440/.773), Robinson Chirinos (.333/.464/.644), Mark Reynolds (.330/.392/.637), Trey Mancini (.326/.394/.640), and Wellington Castillo (.302/.333/.508) are hitting so far over their heads, you need a telescope to see them. Curtis Granderson is hitting just .194, but leads the team with 10 home runs and 25 RBI's.

Can the Flamingoes possibly maintain this pace? Of course not. But in the Benes Division, where three teams are four or more games below .500, all a team needs is one hot chapter in order to win the division. Las Vegas has that. Now, all they need to do is hold on tight.

Story #3: The Year of the Apostles

It's only a matter of time before Bobby Sylvester wins a BDBL trophy. It seems inevitable at this point. Early in this season, it looks as though this could be the year. The Apostles won more games (22) than any other team in the BDBL. They scored more runs (164) than any other team, led the BDBL in OBP, ranked fourth in ERA (3.25), led the BDBL in strikeouts (by a landslide), and their stellar defense allowed an average of only .248 on balls in play. They are a perfect 12-0 at home, and have dominated their division to the tune of an 11-1 record.

In short, the Apostles have had outstanding hitting, pitching, and defense. What more is there to say?

In three starts, Chad Green allowed just five hits in 21+ innings, with two walks, and 32 strikeouts. David Price is 2-0 with a 1.77 ERA in his three starts. Strangely enough, the team's worst pitchers have been Jacob deGrom (4.66 ERA in seven starts) and Rich Hill (4.54 ERA in seven starts), but even they are 6-2 combined.

Offensively, St. Louis hit .262/.341/.471 as a team, and that was with J.D. Martinez batting just .174/.260/.367 for the chapter! Kevin Kiermaier (.340/.406/.511), Yasiel Puig (.309/.369/.574), Yasmani Grandal (.307/.349/.545), and Zack Cozart (.284/.396/.602) have been outstanding.

The Apostles lost only one series in Chapter One (to Charlotte), and swept Niagara, Southern Cal, and Cleveland. I don't think there are any signs that they are slowing down. In fact, I think they're just getting started.

Story #4: The Crazy-Good Griffin Division

The two worst teams in the Griffin Division would be tied for first if they were in the Hrbek Division instead. Every team in the division ended Chapter One with a record above .500. The second-place Kansas City Boulevards finished with the same record (17-11) as both the first-place Joplin Miners and first-place Las Vegas Flamingoes.

The last-place (tied) Bear Country Jamboree rank #2 in the OL in runs scored despite hitting just 20 home runs as a team -- the lowest total in the league. The Los Altos Undertakers share the same record as Bear Country, and yet they rank tenth in the OL in runs scored, and are hitting just .230/.297/.390 as a team.

The Undertakers are two games above .500 despite the fact that their ace, Chris Archer, owns a 5.87 ERA after six starts. Not surprisingly, it is their bullpen that has carried them. Dellin Betances has yet to allow a run in over 11 innings. In fact, he has allowed only six base runners all season, and has struck out 20 batters. The other end of that two-headed bullpen monster, Kenley Jansen, has allowed only nine base runners in 12-plus innings, and has struck out 22 batters.

The Boulevards' bullpen has its own scoreless streak taking place as well. Alex Claudio has yet to allow a run in sixteen innings, and has allowed only eight batters to reach base. Joe Kelly and Wade Davis have allowed just four earned runs combined in their 22-plus innings of work.

Story #5: Doyle Finally On Top

It only took him twenty years, but Jim Doyle finally managed to finish a chapter in first place. The Miners carry a comfortable three-game lead in the McGowan Division, thanks in large part to a Salem Cowtippers team that simply rolled over and played dead. Salem played ten one-run games in Chapter One, and went 3-7 in those games. Joplin managed to finish with a record of 17-11 despite blowing two late-game leads, and despite a middling record of 4-3 in those one-run nail-biters.

Joplin's bullpen carried their team in the first chapter. Matt Bowman, Ryan Dull, Max Fried, and A.J. Schugel tossed 18 innings combined in Chapter One and didn't allow a single run to score against them. Chase Whitley (Chase Whitley??) posted a 1.50 ERA in 12 innings, and allowed only eight base runners. Sergio Romo, Chris Devenski, and someone named Brebbia all tossed double-digit innings out of the bullpen and posted ERA's under 3.00.

Meanwhile, the best starting pitcher for the Joplin Miners in Chapter One was...Matt Garza. No, seriously. He went 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA in four starts. This is the same Matt Garza who posted a 4.94 ERA in MLB 2017. Apparently, whatever voodoo spells Anthony Peburn cast during his time as manager have carried over to the Doyle administration.

The story in Salem is familiar to BDBL fans throughout the world. Bad pitching out of the bullpen, inexplicable performances by the starting pitchers, and untimely hitting (or lack thereof) by the offense. Put it all together, and you get a .500 chapter. Maybe better luck next chapter?

Story #6: Team Scary

The Apostles lead the BDBL in runs differential. Any guess as to which team currently ranks second in that category? I'll give you a hint: not one person voted for this team to win their division during preseason polling. On this very page, I predicted this team would finish the season in last place. Yet, 28 games into the season, they sit in first place with a record of 18-10.

If you guessed the Buckingham Sovereigns, give yourself a cookie. Buckingham has outscored their opponents by 41 runs this season -- one more than Flagstaff and twelve less than St. Louis. They rank #2 in the BDBL in runs scored, and eighth in runs allowed. How on earth did we all get this so wrong?

Offensively, Hitter of the Chapter Marwin Gonzalez has exceeded all expectations so far. He's hitting .343/.424/.639 overall, which far exceeds the .303/.377/.530 triple-slash line he posted in MLB last year. Against left-handers, he is hitting .333/.412/.800, compared to his .250/.328/.467 MLB performance.

Nori Aoki is batting .358/.384/.556, compared to .277/.335/.393 in MLB. He has already equaled the number of triples (2) he hit in MLB, and has hit nearly half as many home runs (2) as he hit in all of last MLB season. Whether he keeps this pace or not is now irrelevant after his trade to Cleveland. He will be replaced in the lineup with Justin Upton, who is fully-capable of posting similar numbers to Aoki's.

Rajai Davis (.290/.343/.419, compared to .235/.293/.348) has also exceeded expectations at this point. Strangely enough, it is Mike Trout (.253/.381/.586) who has grossly under-performed so far.

On the hill, Marco Estrada (4.98 ERA in MLB) has posted a 0.42 ERA in his four starts to date, while the team's ace, Jon Lester, is just 1-0 with a 3.91 ERA. Zack McAllister (1.80 ERA in 15 IP) and Chris Rusin (1.83 ERA in 19+ IP) have been workhorses out of the bullpen. Rusin also won three games pitching in relief!

It's a long season, and a lot can happen along the way. I will be a believer when I see the Sovereigns repeat this trick -- or even come close to it -- this coming chapter. Until then, I remain a skeptic.

Story #7: The Division No One Wants to Win

The Griffin Division race appears to be a war of attrition. Which team will outlast the others before succumbing to the temptation to throw in the towel? The 8-20 Cleveland Rocks have already done so by trading Justin Upton and Tommy Hunter. The Akron Ryche are four games below .500, but only three games behind in the division. They have been outscored by nearly 20 runs already this season.

That leaves the 14-14 Chicago Black Sox and the 15-13 Charlotte Mustangs. Although close in record, the two teams couldn't be less alike. Chicago ranks third in the Eck League in runs scored and eleventh in runs allowed. Charlotte ranks seventh in runs scored and fourth in runs allowed.

Chicago's pitching has suffered from poor performances by starting pitchers that were expected to excel. Carlos Martinez (5.63 ERA), Cole Hamels (5.54), and Madison Bumgarner (5.14) are all sporting ERA's above 5.00 after one chapter. Charlotte's offense has lagged thanks to an early slump by costly free agent Anthony Rizzo (.168/.297/.280.)

Chicago's pitching, as well as Charlotte's offense, should improve over the coming chapters. At this point, it looks like it will be another close race in the Hrbek Division. The "winner" will most likely face the Apostles in the Division Series, so the motivation to improve these teams through trade down the stretch may not be as great as it was a year ago.