May, 2018

Chapter Two Recap

Players of the Chapter

Johnny Bo raised a few eyebrows when he doled out a whopping $7.5 million ($23.5 million over three years, guaranteed) for a 31-year-old outfielder coming off a year in which he posted an OPS of just .769 against righties, and who was just one year removed from the worst season of his career. For one chapter, at least, Andrew McCutchen has paid dividends for the Las Vegas Flamingos. Our OL Hitter of the Chapter hit .380/.451/.787, and led the league in home runs (11), RBI's (29), and runs created (39.1).

It's hard to remember a time when the Allentown Ridgebacks were ever in rebuilding mode. In 2011, however, they did just that. They began that season with a firesale, and ended it with 105 losses. It was the second time in Tom DiStefano's brilliant career that his team lost 100 or more games. Each of those seasons was followed by a 100-win season.

The very first trade made by Tom in the winter of 2011 was an eight-player trade with the Atlanta Fire Ants. That trade added three key players (Justin Morneau, Jayson Werth, and Ian Kinsler) to an Atlanta team that would go on to defeat the Los Altos Undertakers in the BDBL World Series. That trade also sent a prospect to the Ridgebacks who had been ranked #85 on Baseball America's list a year before, but who would jump all the way to #2 in that ranking the following spring. That player, Mike Trout, is our EL Hitter of the Chapter. He hit .340/.461/.796 in Chapter Two, with 12 home runs, 24 RBI's, and 38 runs created.

I normally don't pay much attention to the wins stat, but when a guy goes a perfect 6-0 in a chapter, it's tough to ignore. That pitcher was Flagstaff's own Zack Greinke, who also posted a 2.45 ERA in Chapter Two (seventh in the OL), and held opponents to a .166/.201/.325 batting line (the first two slashes of which led the league.)

Over in the Eck League, Charlotte's Kyle Hendicks nearly matched Greinke's feat by going 5-0 on the chapter (matched by Buckingham's Lance Lynn), but it's Hendicks' teammate who gets my pick for EL Pitcher of the Chapter. Julio Teheran went 4-2, led the EL in ERA (1.51), and held opponents to a .223/.284/.284 batting line. That's right: he didn't allow a single extra base hit all chapter!

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: South Loop Breaks Away From the Pack

Trivia question: when is the last time the Benes Division included two teams above .500? Answer below.

The South Loop Furies were not picked to win the Benes Division. Out of the fifteen people who voted in our preseason poll, only three predicted the Furies would win it. (Bart, Bart's mom, and Bart voting twice by logging in from a different device.) Yet, here we are, 56 games into the 2018 season, and the Furies from South Loop are the only team in the division with a winning record. South Loop went 18-10 last chapter, overtaking the Las Vegas Flamingos, and turning a five-game deficit into a three-game lead.

Their success stemmed from some incredibly unlikely sources. Eric Young somehow hit .423/.448/.692 for the chapter. Leury Garcia hit .393/.414/.536. Starlin Castro hit .337 and hit five home runs en route to a .538 slugging percentage. Someone named Kevin McCarthy pitched over five innings in relief without giving up a run. Jose Ramirez (a.k.a. "The Other Jose Ramirez") allowed just one run and seven baserunners in more than nine innings of relief. Luis Garcia won three games out of the bullpen. R.A. Dickey (R.A. F'ing Dickey!) also won three games.

All of that is to say that this success isn't likely to be sustained. Yet still, with the Ravenswood Infidels long out of the race, and the Myrtle Beach Hitmen looking to sell everything that isn't nailed to the floor, that leaves only the Furies and Flamingos to duke it out for the division title. Watching those two duke it out is like watching Screech and Horseshack step into the boxing ring a few years back.

Trivia answer: the year was 2014. Ravenswood and Mississippi finished the season tied for first with 84-76 records. They played a one-game playoff game to decide which team would advance to the OLDS. Mississippi jumped all over Ravenswood starter Clay Buchholz in the first and second innings and turned the game into a 10-4 laugher. The same two teams finished above .500 in 2012 as well. From the beginning of the new realigned divisions, the Benes Division has crowed a division champion with 90 or fewer wins eight times in fourteen years.

Story #2: St. Louis Stumbles

The St. Louis Apostles were supposed to run away with their division. The addition of Jacob deGrom to the St. Louis rotation was supposed to have sealed the deal. Out of the fourteen people who voted in the preseason poll, all fourteen predicted the Apostles would win the division. Nine out of fifteen chose St. Louis to win the Eck League title, and a league-leading six votes were cast for the Apostles to win the whole enchilada.

Two chapters into the season, St. Louis is clinging to a four-game lead after a disastrous 12-16 chapter. What happened?

Simply put, their pitching failed to show up in Chapter Two. Offensively, there were few issues. St. Louis hit .266/.331/.490 as a team and scored 146 runs (fifth in the EL.)  The pitching, however, was the stuff of nightmares. deGrom posted a mind-numbing ERA of 7.94 last chapter, and somehow won three games (but also losing three.) Carlos Rodon nearly matched deGrom's horrific ERA at 7.59, and went 0-3 in four starts. But neither of those starters fared as poorly as Dinelson Lamet. In three starts spanning thirteen innings, Lamet allowed 19 runs, 13 earned runs, fourteen hits, and ten walks.

Meanwhile, the Niagara Locks posted a respectable 15-13 record in Chapter Two to close the gap. It seems unlikely that the St. Louis pitching staff will continue to pitch so poorly, so that gap may never be as narrow again for the rest of this season. Given that St. Louis will be traveling to Salem in Chapter Three, I predict that their pitching will suddenly improve during that series.

Story #3: Interleague Oddities

With interleague play beginning this chapter, it seems like a good time to point out something really weird that is happening in the BDBL this season:

The Ozzie League has scored 12-percent fewer runs than the Eck League at this point. They're trailing in OBP by 14 points and slugging by 21. They've hit 57 fewer home runs. They're walking less and striking out more. And they're not even playing "small ball" since the EL has swiped 37 more bags.

What on earth is causing this? Are the hitters in the OL that much worse than the EL's? Are the pitchers that much better? Are the OL ballparks better-tailored to pitchers?

If I simply sort all hitters by runs created and look at the top forty, I see exactly 20 OL hitters and 20 EL. If I do the same for pitchers, using WAR, I see 21 OL pitchers and 19 EL. I don't have the time or motivation to look at ballpark differences, but I can't imagine that is what is causing this. So what gives? The MLB average last year was .255/.324/.426, which is right in line with the BDBL's average of .257/.321/.428. So the EL is hitting above the average, and the OL is hitting below. Weird, huh?

Story #4: Another Superteam is Born

In my preseason preview, I wrote about how refreshing it was to begin a season without having a "superteam" in the mix. I posited that the 2018 season should be highly-competitive, with many worthy teams vying for a playoff spot, and no team standing head-and-shoulders above the rest. Apparently, I was wrong.

For the second chapter in a row, the Flagstaff Outlaws won twenty or more games. They lead the BDBL with 41 wins and have outscored their opponents by 81 runs. They are on pace to win 117 games. If they do so, they will become the fourth team to do so in the past three seasons. Whereas once a 117-win season was a rare accomplishment, it has now become the norm.

Flagstaff's starting pitching, in particular, has been unreal. A quick look at the leaders board shows all four pitchers in Flagstaff's starting rotation among the league leaders in ERA. They own four of the top six spots, capped by Alex Wood, who has remarkably allowed only five runs in 61 innings. That's an ERA of 0.74, people. I don't know what the league record is for ERA after two chapters, but that has to be close.

Zack Greinke is 10-1 with a 2.27 ERA. He leads the league in wins. In fact, three of Flagstaff's starters top the wins list, with Greinke, Chris Sale (8-2), and Wood (7-0) leading the way. Sale has already struck out 135 batters, which tops the league (by a lot.) Michael Wacha ranks fourth in the league in ERA (2.66) and is 3-1 in ten starts.

All of the Vg's and Ex's spread throughout the Flagstaff infield and outfield have held balls in play to a league-low batting average of .240. No other team is even close to this rate. Flagstaff leads that category by 34 points! They also own the lowest OPS allowed by 72 points. Perhaps most remarkably, they have allowed an average of only 6.4 hits per nine. Maybe the entire reason why the OL is hitting so poorly as a whole this season is because of Flagstaff!

One-third of the way through the season, the Outlaws own a 2.50 team ERA. Could this be the third year in a row we see the all-time team ERA record broken?

Story #5: Higuera Heating Up

In preseason polling, the Kansas Law Dogs received thirteen out of the fourteen votes to win the division. (Saskatoon received the other.) Two chapters into the season, however, the Law Dogs are in last place, eight games below .500, and trailing by eleven games. The Buckingham Sovereigns and Great Lakes Sphinx -- nobody's pick to win the division -- are battling it out for first place, with Buckingham two games in front. Saskatoon isn't far behind at five games back.

The Sphinx continue to defy both expectations and explanation. They have outscored their opponents by only 21 runs, but thanks to a 12-4 record in one-run games, they are performing three games better than their Pythagorian predictor.

Great Lakes is playing .589 baseball despite the fact that four of their five starting pitchers own ERA's above 5.00. How on earth can a team enjoy any success whatsoever when three of your starting pitchers are James Shields, Mike Fiers, and Martin Perez? Nothing about the Sphinx makes sense, but then, that has been true for several years now.

Great Lakes, Buckingham, and Saskatoon all enjoyed a successful chapter, winning 19, 17, and 16 games, respectively. Buckingham has now won 17+ games two chapters in a row, and seems to be the real deal. They have scored more runs (320) than any other team in the league -- ten more than St. Louis, and 37 more than the next-best team, Chicago. Their .345 on-base percentage also leads the league. Trout (.300/.425/.700), Logan Morrison (.303/.410/.639), Justin Upton (.325/.434/.649), and Marwin Gonzalez (.317/.372/.555) are all having MVP-caliber seasons at the plate.

Saskatoon's success is almost entirely tied to their pitching. Lance McCullers (5-2, 2.21 ERA) and Carlos Carrasco (8-2, 3.17) are pitching extraordinarily well. Roberto Osuna (1.48 ERA, 19 saves) has done a phenomenal job out of the bullpen. Incredibly, this team has won 30 games despite the fact that two of their full-time pitchers (Kenta Maeda and Kyle Freeland) are sporting ERA's over 5.00. In fact, both of them have records better than .500! Saskatoon scores 4.9 runs per game on average, yet Maeda and Freeland are receiving 5.8 and 5.9 runs of support per game, respectively.

At this point, the question isn't why the Buckingham Sovereigns are winning, but how did the league not see this coming? They have the offense and the pitching to win this division. Great Lakes remains an eternal mystery. Year after year, they seem to win without any pitching whatsoever. Saskatoon is relying heavily on a handful of players to carry the team. They, perhaps more than any other team in the league, could use a boost from a midseason trade. I hear Max Scherzer is available.

Story #6: McGowan Race Tightens

The Joplin Miners went just 15-13 in Chapter Two, which allowed the second place Salem Cowtippers to gain a game in the standings. Both teams would have performed much better last chapter if either of them were able to win one-run games. Salem went 3-5 in those games, while Joplin went 5-6. The Miners outscored their opponents by more runs than any other team in the OL in Chapter Two, and yet barely managed to break even.

Offensively, the Miners are performing as well as expected, yet not from the players who were expected to excel. They are tied for second in the OL in runs scored, and are hitting .265/.336/.446 as a team. The Cowtippers offense on the other hand, has been missing in action the entire season. They rank seventh in runs scored, and are hitting just .245/.313/.406 as a team.

Joplin continues to get an inexplicably good performance from Charlie Blackmon. Despite hitting in a ballpark with a LH HR factor of 51, Blackmon is slugging 50 points higher than he did in Coors Field, and is on pace to hit 52 home runs -- 15 more than he hit at Coors! Likewise, Matt Carpenter is hitting a mile over his head. His BDBL numbers to date (.302/.411/.617) look nothing like the .241/.384/.451 line he posted in MLB a year ago. He has already hit 13 homers -- well more than half as many as he hit in MLB. Did I mention he's also left-handed?

Salem's offense has been stuck in the mud thanks to head-shaking performances by Eugenio Suarez (.209/.305/.359), Mitch Moreland (.176/.234/.320), Andrew Benintendi (.223/.303/.318), Matt Joyce (.221/.301/.426), and Yoenis Cespedes (.244/.286/.447).

In terms of pitching, the Cowtippers and Miners own the same exact ERA of 3.39, which happens to be the lowest ERA outside of Flagstaff. Joplin owns first place in the division despite the fact that their ace, Clayton Kershaw, owns a 5-7 record. Out of the sixteen pitchers who have logged an inning on the Joplin roster, the five worst ERA's on the team belong to starting pitchers. The Joplin bullpen has carried this team thus far.

As inexplicable as Joplin's offensive performance has been so far, it's nothing compared to its bullpen. A.J. Schugel (who?) has yet to allow a run in nine innings of work. Matt Bowman (who??) owns a tidy 0.75 ERA in 24 innings. Other household names like Chase Whitley (1.65), T.J. McFarland (1.69), and John Brebbia (2.35) are kicking ass and taking names. The Joplin Miners have been carried into first place by two batters hitting way over their heads and a bunch of middle relievers no one has ever heard of.

Meanwhile, over in Salem, the bullpen has seemingly performed well as a whole, but has employed the worst timing possible to implode. Twelve of the team's 26 losses have been credited to their bullpen. In his brief time as a Cowtipper, Tommy Hunter has managed to blow three saves in seven opportunities. Pedro Strop, who yielded a .178/.265/.233 batting line to lefties in MLB last year, is currently sporting a line of .309/.403/.364 against southpaws.

Up is down. Black is white. Eventually, some of these random dice rolls have to fall in Salem's favor, right? Right?