March, 2019
2019 BDBL
Farm Report
Welcome to the 20th annual BDBL Farm
Report! (Note: we didn't have a Farm Report in our first season because
we barely had farm clubs.) Most of you know the drill by now. For the
newbies, here's how this works. I have collected the top-100 prospect lists
from a "panel of experts." This year, that panel includes Baseball
America, Fangraphs, and MLB.com. I assign 100 points to the top prospect
on each list, 99 to the second, and so on, down to 1 point for #100. I
then add all the points together, assign all prospects to their BDBL
franchises, and arrive at this nifty chart below:
|
Total Pts |
2019 |
2018 |
2017 |
2016 |
2015 |
2014 |
2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
2004 |
2003 |
2002 |
2001 |
2000 |
Avg Rank |
MBH |
1,341 |
1 |
6 |
9 |
24 |
24 |
7 |
18 |
12 |
21 |
21 |
7 |
13 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
8 |
12 |
16 |
22 |
12.1 |
NIA |
1,310 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
11 |
23 |
24 |
6 |
9 |
23 |
11.0 |
KAN |
1,281 |
3 |
12 |
6 |
19 |
18 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
22 |
23 |
9 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
11 |
16 |
11 |
4 |
9.8 |
LAU |
1,219 |
4 |
4 |
23 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
19 |
11 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
19 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
6.1 |
STL |
1,013 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
10 |
1 |
24 |
8 |
5 |
11 |
9 |
19 |
10 |
23 |
17 |
12 |
19 |
9.2 |
AKR |
1,004 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
16 |
11 |
14 |
11 |
7 |
5 |
12 |
8 |
23 |
12 |
18 |
21 |
15 |
13 |
2 |
9 |
10.5 |
CHI |
993 |
7 |
13 |
15 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
13 |
15 |
9 |
1 |
6 |
12 |
2 |
10 |
14 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
8 |
12 |
8.4 |
SCA |
965 |
8 |
8 |
4 |
5 |
17 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
11 |
15 |
17 |
14 |
16 |
11 |
15 |
11 |
9 |
7 |
14 |
15 |
10.5 |
CLE |
801 |
9 |
3 |
18 |
15 |
10 |
15 |
19 |
19 |
16 |
10 |
21 |
20 |
13 |
19 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
24 |
24 |
20 |
17.2 |
CLT |
697 |
10 |
10 |
5 |
11 |
7 |
14 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
10 |
21 |
10 |
14 |
17 |
11 |
20 |
24 |
10.7 |
RAV |
615 |
11 |
7 |
17 |
13 |
12 |
19 |
11 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
22 |
24 |
23 |
12 |
22 |
20 |
13 |
5 |
16.1 |
SKS |
602 |
12 |
9 |
8 |
12 |
4 |
13 |
8 |
13 |
10 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
7 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
10 |
18 |
18 |
8 |
10.0 |
FLG |
571 |
13 |
17 |
7 |
17 |
14 |
22 |
9 |
17 |
5 |
4 |
20 |
22 |
18 |
22 |
8 |
3 |
18 |
15 |
5 |
13 |
13.5 |
KCB |
522 |
14 |
14 |
19 |
9 |
5 |
17 |
22 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
14 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
13 |
20 |
4 |
22 |
19 |
14 |
16.5 |
SAL |
404 |
15 |
16 |
13 |
2 |
13 |
9 |
23 |
23 |
20 |
6 |
10 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
1 |
10 |
7 |
1 |
10.0 |
DBW |
371 |
16 |
18 |
11 |
21 |
23 |
18 |
15 |
9 |
15 |
13 |
16 |
21 |
20 |
17 |
20 |
18 |
6 |
14 |
17 |
11 |
16.0 |
BCJ |
287 |
17 |
23 |
22 |
14 |
19 |
24 |
6 |
6 |
13 |
8 |
9 |
23 |
9 |
3 |
12 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
21 |
15.8 |
SLF |
285 |
18 |
20 |
10 |
18 |
9 |
23 |
10 |
20 |
8 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
7 |
8 |
15 |
10 |
12.1 |
SCS |
252 |
19 |
21 |
14 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
12 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
12 |
5 |
9 |
13 |
2 |
3 |
10 |
17 |
8.8 |
ISP |
224 |
20 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
22 |
24 |
18 |
22 |
11 |
24 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
13.6 |
LVF |
209 |
21 |
19 |
21 |
20 |
15 |
16 |
20 |
18 |
22 |
20 |
11 |
10 |
14 |
15 |
21 |
17 |
13 |
23 |
22 |
16 |
17.7 |
JOP |
119 |
22 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
22 |
20 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
3 |
7 |
15 |
23 |
22 |
15 |
14 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
14.1 |
BKS |
67 |
23 |
15 |
20 |
22 |
11 |
12 |
21 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
13 |
16 |
6 |
13 |
4 |
16 |
12 |
9 |
4 |
18 |
12.4 |
GLS |
0 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
21 |
6 |
17 |
24 |
18 |
16 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
14 |
16 |
9 |
16 |
19 |
21 |
6 |
18.4 |
#1
Myrtle Beach Hitmen
Ranked prospects: Forrest
Whitley (4), Jo Adell (11), MacKenzie Gore (19), Carter Kieboom (25),
Joey Bart (28), Alec Bohm (62)
Unranked prospects: Kevin Alcantara, J.J. Bleday, Rece Hinds,
Grant Lavigne, Mickey Moniak, Kristian Robinson, Brice Turang, Andrew
Vaughn, Chance Adams
This is the first time the Hitmen
franchise has ever ranked #1 in this survey. It's also the third year in
a row they have ranked among the top ten. What is most impressive about
this feat is that Whitley and Kieboom are the only two ranked players
that were inherited by the Gill brothers two seasons ago. All of the others have been
added since December of 2016. Whitley has pitched only 137 innings in
three pro seasons thanks to a variety of injuries and a drug suspension.
When he has pitched, he has looked like a future Cy Young winner. He has
averaged 13.3 K's per nine in his career, and has allowed only 112 hits
(a little more than seven per nine.) Gore is basically a left-handed
version of Whitley. He, too, was selected early in the first round of
the MLB draft. He,
too, has suffered a slew of injuries. He, too, carries a lofty (11.9)
K's per nine rate. The difference is that Gore works with four "plus"
pitches and has better command of them. Myrtle Beach could very well
have a devastating left-right combo at the top of their rotation in the
coming years.
Adell was ranked as high as #2 by
Baseball Prospectus...but they weren't included in our panel of experts.
He is a well-rounded athlete who grades above-average in nearly every
scouting category. He owns a career .302/362/539 triple-slash line and
played part of last season at the Double-A level at the tender age of
19. He could someday be joined in the Hitmen lineup by Kieboom, who
projects as a bat-first shortstop. Bart ranks as the best catcher in
baseball by MLB.com. Bohm's professional career got off to a slow start,
but his college performance suggests he will become a powerful
middle-of-the-lineup threat.
Myrtle Beach's farm club is littered
with first-round MLB draft picks. Every single one of their ranked
prospects was a first-round pick. Moniak was a #1 overall pick. Turang
was a first-rounder a year ago. Vaughn will more than likely be
selected early in the first round this year.
#2
Niagara Locks
Ranked prospects: Vladimir
Guerrero, Jr. (1), Wander F'ing Franco (5), Victor Robles (6), Christian
Pache (43), Jesus Sanchez (48), Ronaldo Hernandez (68), Luiz Gohara (91)
Unranked prospects: Wander Javier, Khalil Lee, Seuly Matias,
Freudis Nova, Tirso Ornelas, Everson Pereira, Jeisson Rosario, Esteury
Ruiz, Raimfer Salinas, Bobby Witt
The Locks have owned many top-five
prospects through the years. In fact, they have owned a top-five
prospect in each of the last seven! This is the first time, however,
that Niagara has owned the #1 prospect in baseball. Guerrero was the
consensus #1 prospect named by each of our panel of experts -- and with
good reason. He is an absolute beast at the plate, hitting
.330/.414/.529 in his career, and batting over .400 in his brief 60-game
visit with my hometown Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats. He is joined in
the top five by Wander F'ing Franco. And that's all I have to say about
that. Robles gives Niagara three top-ten prospects, which is the first
time that has happened since the St. Louis Apostles farm featured Lucas
Giolito (#3), Alex Reyes (#8), and Joey Gallo (#9) in 2016. Let's hope
Niagara's top three has better luck than those three!
Pache is a wheels-and-glove prospect
who is still very raw. He has shown little power so far, and has a lot
of work to do on his plate discipline, yet one of our experts (Fangraphs)
thought so highly of him that he ranked among their top-20. Other than
Witt, I honestly have no idea who any of those other unranked guys are. Ranney loves to
play the International field, so I assume these are all 14-year-old
Latin American kids. Some of them sound as though they could be extras
in the Star Wars cantina scene. Tirso Ornelas? Freudis Nova? C'mon, man!
#3
Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: Royce
Lewis (6), Jesus Luzardo (13), Taylor Trammell (17), Casey Mize (18),
Sean Murphy (46), Jon Duplantier (83), Jose Suarez (103), Elehuris
Montero (107), Mark Vientos (120)
Unranked prospects: Gabriel Arias, Michael Busch, Xavier Edwards,
Edwin Rios, Jose Siri, Yoan Lopez, Cal Quantrill
This is the highest ranking ever for
the Kansas franchise in the BDBL Farm Report. They have one person to
thank for it. Maybe Scot Zook is trying to encroach on my official
league-recognized Johnny Appleseed title. I can't think of any other
reason why he would have traded five ranked prospects -- four of them in
the top-20 -- to the Law Dogs, all in the same year. Yet, that is how
Kansas ended up with Lewis, Luzardo, Trammell, Mize, and Duplaintier.
Lewis is a consensus top-10 prospect
according to all three members of our panel. He looks like the complete
package: plus bat, power, speed, and defense. Trammell ranked as high as
#12 (FanGraphs) and as low as #33 (Baseball America.) He is a plus
athlete who is still a little raw, but has enormous potential. Both
Lewis and Trammell -- along with Quantrill -- were acquired in exchange
for Dallas Keuchel last year. Duplantier and Luzardo (ranked #7 by BA)
were added last year in exchange for Christian Yelich and Wilson Ramos.
Mize came at the expense of J.A. Happ, Wei-Yin Chen, and Tyler Beede.
The Kansas City Boulevards won 95 games last year, and earned a spot in
the postseason, but boy did Zook pay a hefty price to get there!
The biggest surprise here is that
Xavier Edwards wasn't ranked by any member of our panel. He ranked as
the #4 prospect in both the Arizona and Northwest Leagues last year, and
hit a combined .346/.453/.409 in 45 games at two levels in his first
look at professional pitching. Expect him to leap up this ranking over
the next year.
#4
Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Fernando
Tatis, Jr. (2), Bo Bichette (9), Kyle Tucker (10), Touki Toussaint (51),
Dustin May (54), Josh James (79), Franklin Perez (102), Evan White (116)
Unranked prospects: Jake Burger, Tucupita Marcano, Seong-Beom Na,
Shervyen Newton, D.J. Peters, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Tetsudo Yamada, Albert
Abreu, Takahiro Norimoto
Only Jeff Paulson could win
back-to-back BDBL championships, completely deplete his farm club, and
completely rebuild that farm and restore it to the top-five in only one
year. Unbelievable. Just two years ago, the Los Altos farm ranked #23 in
this survey. They have now ranked #4 two years in a row. The club's two
most prized possessions are sons of former Major League
all-stars, Tatis and Bichette. Tatis was ranked among the top three by
each member of our panel, and with good reason. He had no trouble
whatsoever dominating the Double-A level last year as a 19-year-old. He
is the total package: bat, glove, wheels, and bloodline. Bichette is a
bat-first shortstop who will hit in the middle of the lineup wherever he
ends up defensively. He was Los Altos' first-round pick in the 2017 farm
draft. How does a team with the 24th pick in every round end up with a
top-ten prospect like Bichette? Well, here are some of the picks made
ahead of him in that draft: Kumar Rocker, Anthony Banda, Dillon Peters,
Luis Alexander Basabe, and Chris Shaw.
Paulson pulled a page out of Steve
Osbourne's old playbook by loading up on Japanese dudes in this year's
draft. Norimoto is arguably the best pitcher in Japan -- at least, among
those with any chance of hopping to the US before age 30. Yamada has
been dubbed the "Mike Trout of Japan." 'Nuff said?
#5
St. Louis Apostles
Ranked prospects: Alex Reyes
(31), A.J. Puk (32), Andres Gimenez (42), Jazz Chisholm (45), Luis
Patino (49), Triston McKenzie (52)
Unranked prospects: Blaze Jordan, Kyle Lewis, Kyler Murray,
Malcolm Nunez, Robert Puasson, Anderson Espinoza, Alec Hanson, Riley
Pint
Believe it or not, this is the lowest
ranking for the St. Louis franchise since the 2012 season. Reyes (#11
last year), Puk (#24), and McKenzie (#30) all fell in the ranking over
the past year, and yet this team still ranks among the top five. They
tie for the league lead with five players ranked among the top 50, led
by Reyes, whose only issue seems to be staying on the field. Over the
past three seasons, he has missed a significant amount of time with a
drug suspension, Tommy John surgery, and a torn lat tendon. If he can
ever stay healthy, he could be a star. Puk has had similiar
difficulties, as he missed all of last season after undergoing his own
TJ surgery.
Of the Apostles prospects who were
actually healthy last season, Patino is the most impressive. He pitched
the entire 2018 season at age 18 at the Low-A level, where he was ranked
as the #10 prospect in the Midwest League. In 139+ career minor league
innings, he owns a 2.20 ERA, 2.7 walks per nine, 10.0 K/9, and has only
allowed three home runs. Expect him to quickly advance up this ranking
over the next year. Another possible surger is Nunez, a Cuban native who
posted some insane Nintendo numbers (.415/.497/.774, 13 HR in 44 G, 26/29 BB/K
ratio) as a 17-year-old in the Dominican Summer League.
#6
Akron Ryche
Ranked prospects: Keston
Hiura (14), Mitch Keller (24), Austin Riley (29), Francisco Mejia (35),
Bryse Wilson (77), Corbin Burnes (84), Colton Welker (125), Tristen Lutz
(127)
Unranked prospects: Luis Gonzalez, Miguel Hiraldo, D'Shawn
Knowles, Richie Martin, Deivi Garcia, Tyler Ivey, Dean Kremer, Tyler
Phillips, Nick Sandlin, Jordan Yamamoto
Akron ranked #1 in this survey the
past two years in a row, but dropped all the way to #6 after the
graduation of Ronald "Not Meh" Acuna. Hiura rose from #34 to #14 over the past
year, but Mejia (#10 last year) and Keller (#16) both fell. Shockingly,
Hiura, Burnes, and Lutz are the only ranked prospects from the Milwaukee
Brewers organization. Hiura ranks as the top second base prospect in
baseball according to MLB.com. He profiles as a middle-of-the-lineup
hitter who can hit for both average and power. He should move quickly up
the ladder, but probably not quickly enough to replace the departing
Kolten Wong at second base for the Ryche. Mejia was the topic of trade
rumors all winter, as the Padres were looking to add J.T. Realmuto in
trade. He ended up staying in San Diego, where he'll compete with Austin
Hedges for a job out of spring training. MLB.com ranks him as the #2
catching prospect in baseball.
#7
Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Eloy
Jimenez (3), Ian Anderson (30), Gavin Lux (39), D.L Hall (69), Nolan
Gorman (72), Nolan Jones (76), Travis Swaggerty (82), Jordan Groshams
(116), Tyler Stephenson (125)
Unranked prospects: C.J. Abrams, Austin Allen, Shea Langeliers,
Jorge Mateo, Nick Pratto, Connor Scott
Jimenez is now the highest-ranked
prospect in franchise history since Jesus Montero was ranked #3 back in
2010. Let's hope Jimenez has a brighter future than Montero ended up
having. Jimenez set career highs in batting average (.337), OBP (.384),
slugging (.577) and home runs (22) last year despite missing some time
with nagging injuries. He has been compared to Giancarlo Stanton as a
hitter, which is not a bad thing. If Jimenez is the next Stanton,
perhaps Anderson is the next John Smoltz. They're both right-handed,
pitch for the Braves organization, and feature a heavy fastball with two
complementary plus pitches.
The Black Sox are the only organization
in the BDBL that includes two ranked prospects named "Nolan." Gorman was
arguably the best power hitter available in the 2018 MLB draft. That
power translated to the pros, as he hit 17 homers in just 63 games. Like
Gorman, Jones is also a third baseman. With his smooth lefty stroke,
he's more of a pure hitter than the power-hitting Gorman. Abrams (#3)
and Langeliers (#6) are both ranked among the top ten prospects (by
Baseball America) in the 2019 MLB draft.
#8
Southern Cal Slyme
Ranked prospects: Brendan
Rodgers (15), Luis Urias (23), Luis Robert (50), Alex Verdugo (53),
Jarred Kelenic (65), Estevan Florial (86), Victor Victor Victor Victor
Mesa (89), Cole Tucker (110), Julio Pablo Martinez (114)
Unranked prospects: Seth Beer, Isan Diaz, Monte Harrison, George
Valera, Alex Faedo, Colin Poche
Every one of the Slyme's ranked
prospects was acquired during their current three-year rebuilding
period. Rodgers was acquired in a 2016 trade with Los Altos. Kelenic was
picked up in the third round of the 2017 farm draft. Urias, Florial,
Martinez, and Mesa were all added in 2018. Tucker was selected in the
second round of this year's farm draft. Verdugo, Florial, and Robert
were added in trade this winter.
Rodgers is the heir apparent to Troy
Tulowitzki in Colorado. While he has Tulo's bat, he doesn't have his
glove. Urias is a high-OBP second baseman with an above-average glove.
He won't be included in next year's Farm Report because he's a virtual
lock to win the MLB job out of spring training this year. The stats
didn't match the scouting reports for the Cuban refugee Robert. After
signing for a whopping $26 million, Robert slashed .269/.333/.360 at
three minor league levels, with a grand total of zero home runs.
The reviews are mixed on Verdugo. He
is ranked #35 by both Baseball America and MLB.com, but didn't make
FanGraphs' top-100. They question his ability
to remain in center field given his lack of range. If he moves to a corner,
the thinking is that he doesn't have enough power to justify a top ranking. One name that
seems to be on everyone's watch list for 2019 is Valera. He only played
six games in 2018 before an injury ended his season, but scouts saw
enough in that small sample to start throwing around Juan Soto comps.
#9
Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Nick
Senzel (8), Mike Soroka (26), Brendan McKay (27), Logan Allen (86),
Michel Baez (98), Brandon Marsh (118), Leody Taveras (123)
Unranked prospects: Micker Adolfo, Blaze Alexander, Ha-Seong Kim,
Heath Quinn, Brent Rooker, Alek Thomas, Bubba Thompson, Clarke Schmidt,
Owen Sharts
Once upon a time, Mike Stein took great
pride in his shitty farm system. He would openly brag about ranking
among the bottom five for seven years in a row, which he accomplished
from 2000-2006. The Rocks briefly escaped the bottom five in 2007, but
then returned for the next two seasons. Last year, they ranked #3 in
this survey. Now, for the second year in a row, they've busted through
the top ten. It's the dawn of a new era in Cleveland.
Senzel and Troy Tulowitzki are the only
two Rocks prospects to have ever ranked among the top ten. Senzel
dropped from #5 to #8 this past year despite hitting .310/.378/.509 in
his first taste of Triple-A last year. He will most likely disappear
from the Farm Report, as he should earn a spot on the big league roster
at some point this year. I cannot read Mike Soroka's name without
hearing The Knack in my head for the next hour. As far as my
limited research can determine, Brandon Webb and Jacob deGrom are the
only pitchers developed through the Cleveland farm system that ever
became a worthwhile big league contributor. Soroka could be the third.
McKay has had much better success on
the mound (98+ IP, 2.29 ERA, 19/124 BB/K) than he has at the plate
(.221/.361/.366, 10 HR in 317 AB). He's no Shohei Ohtani. Baez's career
was progressing swimmingly until he reached the Double-A level (18+ IP,
22 H, 4 HR, 12 BB, 7.36 ERA). He earned a top-100 ranking from only
MLB.com (#72).
#10
Charlotte Mustangs
Ranked prospects: Alex
Kirilloff (12), Sixto Sanchez (16), Ke'Bryan Hayes (34)
Unranked prospects: Antoni Flores, Tyler Freeman, Kyle Isbel, M.J.
Melendez, Julio Rodriguez, Blake Rutherford, Mike Siani, Durbin Feltman,
Peter Lambert, Bryan Mata, Nick Neidert
Charlotte only owns three ranked
prospects, but squeezes into our top ten for the third year in a row.
Much of that is due to Kirilloff, who may arguably be the best hitting
prospect in the minor leagues not named Vladimir. After missing the
entire 2017 season, he hit .348/.392/.578 at two A-ball levels combined,
with 20 homers, 44 doubles, and a decent 38/86 BB/K ratio. If you put
Sanchez's career numbers together, you get a full season: 221+ IP, 177
H, 3 HR, 43 BB, 191 K, 2.48 ERA. The problem is that he's never thrown
more than 94 innings in a season thanks to a rash of injuries. The
Marlins apparently aren't deterred by those injuries, as they picked him
up in the big J.T. Realmuto trade.
Hayes was ranked as high as #20 (FanGraphs)
by our panel. The son of Charlie, he has a plus bat and a plus-plus
glove. He was ranked as the #4 prospect in the Eastern League last year
by BA. The only thing missing in his game is power. Of the non-ranked
group, Rodriguez stands out as a strong possibility to climb up the
rankings over the course of the year. Considered to be among the elite
of the 2017 International "July 2" class, Rodriguez hit .315/.404/.525
in the Dominican Summer League, displaying power (5 HR in 59 G) and
speed (10 SB, 0 CS).
#11
Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked prospects: Brent
Honeywell (22), Chris Paddack (40), Vidal Brujan (63), Tyler O'Neill
(79), Miguel Amaya (93), Isaac Paredes (123)
Unranked prospects: Lucas Erceg, Will Holland, Josh Jung, Ryan
McKenna, Daniel Espino, Hunter Harvey, Nick Lodolo, Brennan Malone, Alek
Manoah
Despite missing the entire 2018 season
after Tommy John surgery, Honeywell is still ranked among the top 30
prospects in baseball by all three members of the panel. Paddack (ranked
as high as #34 by MLB and FanGraphs and as low as #66 by BA) is the only
other Ravenswood prospect ranked by all three experts. Both Honeywell
and Paddack are right-handers with a plus fastball and changeup.
Honeywell also features a plus screwball (which probably contributed to
his TJ surgery), while Paddack relies on his plus control. Paddack also
underwent TJ surgery, and missed all of 2017. He bounced back in a big
way last season, posting a 2.10 ERA over 90 innings at two different
levels.
Brujan was ranked at #26 by FanGraphs,
but failed to make the MLB.com top-100. Thanks to his diminutive stature
and the fact that he plays second base, FanGraphs compares him to Jose
Altuve, Dustin Pedroia, and Ozzie Albies. They also state that if he
were in college right now, he'd be in the conversation for the #1
overall pick in the upcoming draft. O'Neill was ranked among the top-40
(#36) by Baseball America, but failed to make the other two lists. BA
gives him a power grade of 70, which concurs with FanGraphs' grade. The
issue with O'Neill is his swing-from-the-heels approach that led to a
whopping 40% K-rate in his MLB debut last year. Look for Jung (ranked as
the #8 prospect in the 2019 MLB draft) and Lodolo (#16) to possibly
joined the list of the ranked a year from now.
#12
Saskatoon Sasquatch
Ranked prospects: Kyle
Wright (33), Justus Sheffield (38), Yusniel Diaz (57), Nate Pearson
(66), Andrew Knizer (109)
Unranked prospects: Cavan Biggio, Lucius Fox, Nick Gordon, Jahmai
Jones, Drew Mendoza, Brayan Rocchio, Shane McClanahan, Carter Stewart
Wright is one of three Braves pitchers
ranked among the top-40 pitchers in baseball. The #1 pick of the Squatch
back in 2017, Wright has steadily climbed up the ladder over the past
two years, culminating with a four-game trial in MLB at the end of last
season. Expect not to see him in this Farm Report next year. After his
trade to Seattle, we may not see Sheffield a year from now, either. He
received a very brief cup of coffee last year, and figures to compete
for a rotation spot in spring training. After posting a 2.48 ERA in 116
innings in Double-and-Triple-A last year, it seems like he doesn't have
much left to prove.
Diaz was ranked as high as #37
(Baseball America) and as low as #81 (FanGraphs) by our panel of
experts. He projects to be a league-average outfielder across the board,
with average tools at the plate, on the bases, and in the field. Biggio
clubbed 26 homers, posted an .882 OPS at the Double-A level, and drew 98
walks, but didn't make the top-100 ranking for any of our three experts.
Gordon (ranked #71 a year ago and #45 in 2017) has fallen so far as a
prospect that he is no longer ranked by anyone.
#13
Flagstaff Outlaws
Ranked prospects: Michael
Kopech (20), Keibert Ruiz (21), Adonis Medina (73), Dane Dunning (106),
Trevor Larnatch (129)
Unranked prospects: Triston Casas, Dylan Cozens, Calvin Mitchell,
Corey Ray, Bryson Stott, Myles Straw, Spencer Torkelson, Rogelio
Armenteros, Hunter Barco, Aaron Civale, Trevor Clifton, Ryan Nelson,
Brady Rodgers
Kopech's BDBL trade value seems to have
diminished, yet he remains a top-20 prospect. A year ago, he was traded
(along with Dinelson Lamet) for Justin Verlander. This winter, he was
acquired (along with Larnatch and Brad Miller) for Khris Davis and Kirby
Yates. His calling card is his "80" fastball, which easily reaches
triple digits. That fastball (and a plus slider) led to 170 strikeouts
in 126+ innings (12.1 per nine) in Triple-A last year. Unfortunately for
Flagstaff fans, we won't be seeing Kopech at all in 2019, as he became
yet another victim of Tommy John surgery last summer.
Ruiz is ranked as the third-best
catching prospect in the game by MLB.com, but is the top-ranked catcher
in our Farm Report. The switch-hitter was the second-youngest regular in
the Double-A Texas League last year, but had no problem competing
against much older players. In 377 at-bats, he hit .268/.328/.401 with a
dozen homers. Medina was ranked as high as #44 by FanGraphs, who wrote
that he has "mid-rotation upside." Look for top 2018 draft pick (and
former Cowtippers prospect) Casas to make a big move up this ranking
over the next year. Stott (ranked as the #27 draft prospect by BA) could
join the ranked list a year from now. Torkelson is generally regarded as
one of the top draft prospects for 2020.
#14
Kansas City Boulevards
Ranked prospects: Hunter
Greene (41), Brusdar Graterol (59), Brady Singer (74), Griffin Canning
(75), Dakota Hudson (99), Daulton Varsho (101), Eric Pardinho (107),
Taylor Widener (110)
Unranked prospects: Aristedes Aquino, Logan Davidson, Lane
Thomas, Nick Burdi, Tyler Dyson, Blayne Enlow, Daniel Lynch, Luis Oviedo
I once believed that no one with a name
that sounds like it belongs in a Harry Potter book could ever be a
legitimate baseball prospect, and yet Brusdar Graterol is now a top-60
prospect. Boy is my face red! Rubeus Hagrid's second cousin from the
Forbidden Forest was ranked as the #13 prospect in the Florida State
League. He features a fastball/slider combo, and is rumored to be dating a centaur. Greene sports an "80" fastball and
heaps of potential, but was shut down with an elbow injury last year.
Singer didn't pitch at all in 2018, but mostly because of workload
concerns. He will likely begin the year at High-A. I wouldn't be
surprised if the year ends with a cup of coffee with the Royals.
Pardinho is interesting because he's
one of the few prospects to come out of Brazil. He was very impressive
in his pro debut, striking out 64 batters in 50 innings while pitching
the entire season at age 17. He ranked as the #4 prospect in the
Appalachian League.
#15
Salem Cowtippers
Ranked prospects: Nick
Madrigal (37), Danny Jansen (47), Spencer Howard (96), Will Smith (99),
Luis Garcia (114)
Unranked prospects: Daniel Cabrera, Daz Cameron, Corbin Carroll,
Jeter Downs, Jhailyn Ortiz, Adley Rutschman, Jhon Torres, Matt Wallner,
Jackson Kowar, Lenny Torres
A top-ten ranking for the Salem farm
used to be a given, and yet it has now been four years since the last
time that happened. In fact, Salem has only owned a top-ten farm twice
in the last nine years. Of course, if only we had held onto Wander F'ing
Franco, he alone would have vaulted this team up to #11. Add Yordan
Alvarez and Yusei Kikuchi, and we'd rank a solid #9. But enough about
what could have been.
I was hoping Madrigal would be "The
Next Pedroia", but there are legitimate concerns that he will never
display enough power to warrant that comparison. At just 5'7" and 160
pounds, the power was always going to be a question. A wrist injury that
sidelined him for three months last year also likely added to his power
outage. If the power never comes, he still has value as an extreme contact
hitter (just a 3% strikeout rate last year) with excellent defensive
range and speed on the basepaths. With Gary Sanchez gone, Jansen is now Salem's
latest "catcher of the future" -- at least until Rutschman arrives.
Look for Howard to move up this list
over the course of the year. Garcia, the #1 prospect in the Gulf Coast
League last year, could join him in the top half of the top-100 as well.
Rutschman (ranked #1 in the 2019 MLB draft class) and Carroll (#7) would
likely be top-50 prospects today if they were eligible for these
rankings. Also, keep an eye on the Torres brothers, Jhon and Lenny. Both
of them had huge seasons last year in a small sample and at a low level
of competition. If they carry their performances through to full-season
ball, look out.
#16
Darien Blue Wave
Ranked prospects: Yordan
Alvarez (56), Adrian Morejon (59), Oneil Cruz (78), Cole Winn (93),
Michael Chavis (103), Ryan Weathers (122)
Unranked prospects: Patrick Bailey, Riley Greene, Adam Haseley,
Austin Hays, Noelvi Marte, Pavin Smith, Brock Burke, Jason Groome,
Freicer Perez
This team's top prospect, Alvarez, was
acquired last year along with Weathers in the Sonny Gray deal. Alvarez
was ranked #34 by Baseball America and #44 by MLB.com, but did not make
FanGraphs' top-100. Their knock on him is that his lack of defense and
speed may limit him to DH or, at best, first base. Morejon, a Cuban
defector, got his first taste of the pitcher-unfriendly California
League last year, where he was ranked as its #2 prospect. He managed to
post a 3.30 ERA in a little over 62 innings, which is an amazing feat for
that league.
Cruz is an unusual prospect standing at
6'6" as a shortstop, but he may actually stick there thanks to an arm
that grades 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Offensively, he showed
surprising power with 14 home runs in just 402 at-bats. There is a lot
of swing-and-miss to his game, but scouts are optimistic that there is a
lot of upside there. There is also a great deal of upside to Winn, who
made two of the three top-100 lists. A first-round draft pick out of
high school, Winn didn't pitch professionally last year, so we'll have
to wait and see if his performance matches his scouting reports.
#17
Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Dylan
Cease (35), William Contreras (85), Ryan Mountcastle (90), Garrett
Hampson (113)
Unranked prospects: Kevin Kramer, Shed Long, Tyler Nevin, Jordan
Patterson, Hudson Potts, Luis Rengifo, Travis Bergen, Tony Gonsolin,
Zack Littell, JoJo Romero, Dennis Santana, T.J. Zeuch
Top prospect Cease has certainly made
the rounds in the BDBL. He was first drafted by Flagstaff in the third
round of the 2016 draft. He was then traded to Los Altos in 2018 as part
of the YUGE Chris Sale trade. This past winter, he packed his bags yet again
and headed to Chicago in exchange for Seth Lugo and Evan White. Finally,
he landed in Bear Country as part of the big Aroldis Chapman/Willson
Contreras deal. He rose from #64 to #35 on this list after an impressive
Double-A debut in which he posted a 1.72 ERA in 52+ innings. He owns a
2.67 ERA and 11.9 K rate in his pro career, which spans 286 innings. So
why doesn't he rank higher? He barely made FanGraphs' top-60. Their
knock on him is control and command issues. They believe he bests fits
as a multi-inning reliever or "opener" who won't face the same hitters
three times.
Contreras was only ranked by one of our
experts, FanGraphs, who ranked him #55. Coming off back-to-back seasons
in which he posted an 800+ OPS, FanGraphs sees him as a breakout
candidate in 2019. I don't really follow baseball, so I'm not all that
familiar with most of the names on that unranked list. Just for kicks, I
looked up a few of them. Potts is a third baseman who ranked #9 in the
California League last year. He hit .154 in a 22-game trial at the
Double-A level. Rengifo is a second baseman in the Angels organization
who hit .274/.358/.421 at Triple-A last year. He looks like a high-OBP/speed
type of player. Zeuch pitches right up the road from here in Manchester,
New Hampshire. Who knew! I predict all three will be released by this
time next year.
#18
South Loop Furies
Ranked prospects: Matt
Manning (64), Corbin Martin (66), Drew Waters (70), Cionel Perez (131)
Unranked prospects: Lazaro Armenteros, Mauricio Dubon, Andy
Ibanez, Joshua Lowe, Adbert Alzolay, Zack Brown, Darwinzon Hernandez,
Jonathan Hernandez, David Peterson, Zack Thompson, Joey Wentz
We're already beginning to scrape the
bottom of the barrel and we still have six teams to go! Manning (ranked
between #50 and #96), Martin (#50 - #81), and Water (#49 - #86) were all
ranked by all three members of the experts panel, but all three showed a
wide disparity of opinion. According to Baseball America, Manning shows
"high-end stuff" that gives him a "ceiling toward the top of a
rotation." According to FanGraphs, he shows "inconsistent command" and
projects as a "no. 2 or 3 starter", but only if he can "dial down the
aggression in his delivery."
FanGraphs is highest on Martin, who
they project as a number three or four starter. They're also highest on
Waters, to whom they give 55-60 grades across the board. Perez only made
one list, as he was ranked #100 by FanGraphs. He made it all the way to
The Show last year after a seemingly inconsistent minor league career in
which he racked up only 167+ innings in two years. Remember the stink
Armenteros caused in the BDBL? Three years later, the former #1 overall
pick in the BDBL farm draft has yet to earn a ranking in the BDBL Farm
Report. He did perform fairly well (.277/.375/.416) in his full-season
debut last year, and ranked as the #14 prospect in the Midwest League.
#19
South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked prospects: Luis
Garcia (61), Brandon Lowe (81), Ronny Mauricio (92), Justin Dunn (103),
Kevin Smith (118), Nate Lowe (127), Josh Naylor (129), Nico Hoerner
(131)
Unranked prospects: Aki Baddoo, A.J. Reed, Braden Shewmake,
Domingo Acevedo, Shane Baz, Wil Crowe, Alex Lange
The Sea Cats farm system has fallen
into a state of disrepair since its height of 2009-2010 when it ranked
#2 in this survey. There are two ranked prospects, both shortstops,
named Luis Garcia. South Carolina owns the higher-ranked one from the
Washington Nationals organization. He is a "bat-first" shortstop,
although he hasn't shown much power as of yet, and he will more than
likely be moved around the diamond. Brandon Lowe was ranked as high as
#46 by FanGraphs, but didn't make MLB.com's top-100. He had a breakout
year at Triple-A last year and carried that through to a 148-PA big
league performance. FanGraphs sees that breakout as legit.
FanGraphs also had some high praise for
Mauricio (who they ranked #68), writing: "This is what Fernando Tatis,
Jr. looked like at age 17." They compared his body type not only to
Tatis, but also to Manny Machado, Hanley Ramirez, and Carlos Correa. All
of which is high praise for someone they grade as a present-day 20
hitter with 20 game power. None of the other ranked prospects were
ranked above #89 by any of the three experts.
#20
North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs
Ranked prospects: Jonathan
India (55), Yusei Kikuchi (71), J.B. Bukauskas (112)
Unranked prospects: Diego Cartaya, Jeremy Eierman, Anthony
Siegler, Matt Thaiss, Zack Burdi, Ethan Hankins, Grant Holmes, Tanner
Houck, James Kaprelian, Merrill Kelly
The North Carolina ISP's farm roster is
littered with former first-round draft picks that haven't yet panned
out. Eierman, Siegler, Burdi, Hankins, Holmes, Houck, and Kaprelian were
all first-round selections, and none are ranked by any of our three
experts. Of the ranked group, two (Kikuchi and Bukauskas) came from the
Salem Cowtippers organization. Kikuchi wasn't ranked by MLB.com -- most
likely because he doesn't qualify as a "prospect" according to their
guidelines. His comps suggest that his numbers this year will resemble
Kenta Maeda and Miles Mikolas last year, which would be a great bargain
for North Carolina, considering Mikolas went for $6.5 million in our
auction this winter. North Carolina also hopes that their #1 pick this
year, Kelly, does his best impersonation of Mikolas this year.
Kikuchi earned the highest ranking (#45
by Baseball America) of the three ranked prospects. The next-highest was
the #51 ranking earned by India, who projects to hit for
both average and power while playing multiple infield positions. Bukauskas sports four above-average pitches, including a biting slider,
but has faced durability issues throughout his career, and may end up in
the bullpen as a result.
#21
Las Vegas Flamingos
Ranked prospects: Peter
Alonso (44), Hans Crouse (86), Heliot Ramos (120)
Unranked prospects: Jordyn Adams, Austin Beck, Joe Dunand, Noah
Naylor, Cole Roederer, Beau Burrows, Braxton Garrett, Anthony Kay, Cole
Ragans, Grayson Rodriguez, Graeme Stinson
The new official "Team Meh" also sports
a meh farm system. The Vegas farm club has now ranked among the bottom
five four years in a row. The last time they cracked the top ten, George
W. Bush was still president. This year's farm looks no more exciting
than last year's or the year before or the year before. The highest
ranking achieved by any player was
#48, which Alonso earned from both Baseball America and FanGraphs.
Weirdly enough, that puts him at #44 overall. He has big-time power, as
demonstrated by the 36 home runs he hit at the Double-A and Triple-A
levels combined last year. The problem is his lack of speed and agility
limit him to first base, where his glove is a liability. Crouse was
Johnny Bo's #1 farm pick this year, and one of the few picks from that
draft that earned a ranking in this Farm Report. Crouse is known not
only for his mid-90's fastball, but for his wacky mound antics
reminiscent of Mark Fidrych. I can't wait to read the play-by-play in
DMB if he should make it to The Show.
#22
Joplin Miners
Ranked prospects: Matthew
Liberatore (58)
Unranked prospects: Mason Denaburg, Greyson Jenista, Ryan
Kreidler, Marco Luciano, Orelvis Martinez, Kameron Misner, Tristan
Pompey, Misael Urbina, Jose Albertos, Richard Gallardo, Logan Gilbert,
Ryan Rolison, Mike Vasil, Cole Wilcox
This is the second year in a row the
Joplin Miners have ranked #22 in this Farm Report. It's also the second
year in a row Jim Doyle has been at the helm of this franchise.
Coincidence? Their only ranked prospect is Liberatore, who was the 16th
overall pick in last year's MLB draft. To date, he's thrown 32+ innings
as a professional, with 13 walks and 37 strikeouts.
The rest of the Joplin farm falls into
three categories. Gilbert (pick #14 overall), Rolison (#22), Denaburg (#27), Jenista
(#49), and Pompey (#89) were all 2018 MLB draft picks (as was Liberatore).
Misner (ranked #33 by BA) and Kreidler (#190) are
eligible for the 2019 MLB draft.
Luciano (ranked #2 by FanGraphs), Gallardo (#6), Urbina
(#13), and Martinez (#14) were all top international prospects in 2018.
The only outliers are Vasil and Wilcox,
who were top 2018 prospects out of high school that didn't sign and
chose to go to college instead. Oh, and Albertos, who posted a 14.83 ERA
at two different low-minors levels last year. (Something tells me Jim
got the name wrong on that one.)
#23
Buckingham Sovereigns
Ranked prospects: Jonathan
Loaisiga (93), Tony Santillan (97)
Unranked prospects: Antonio Cabello, Anthony Garcia, Dermis
Garcia, Nick Solak, Anderson Tejeda, Luis Torrens, Meibrys Viloria, Nick
Bitsko, Roansy Contreras, Kyle Fuckhouser, Luis Gil, Mike King, Luis
Medina, Erik Swanson, Garrett Whitlock
Out of the seventeen prospects listed
above, nine are with the New York Yankees organization. Three others
were recently Yankees prospects, but are now with a different team. The
Yankees have had a great farm system in recent years, but...come on,
man. Both of this team's ranked prospects were ranked in the 60's by
only one member of our panel. Johnny Lasagna ranked #66 on MLB.com's
list, and Santillan (one of the few non-Yankees on the Buckingham farm)
was ranked #69 by Baseball America. The one name that really had me
scratching my head was Bitsko. I couldn't figure out how he fit the
pattern. He's a 16-year-old high school sophomore. He doesn't graduate
until 2021. How on earth does he fit into the Buckingham farm strategy?
Does he play for the Yankees in Little League?
Then I noticed his hometown: Doylestown, PA. It's about a six mile drive
from Buckingham.
#24
Great Lakes Sphinx
Ranked prospects: None.
Nada. Zilch.
Unranked prospects: Aramis Ademan, Bobby Dalbec, Brennen Davis,
Donnie Dewees, Reivaj Garcia, Domingo Leyba, Eddy Julio Martinez, Zack
Short, D.J. Wilson, Chesny Young, Brendon Little, Brailyn Marquez,
Justin Steele
This is the third year in a row the
Sphinx haven't owned a single ranked prospect. Folks, that should be
impossible. Even if you were trying to build the shittiest farm
club in league history, you would occasionally mess up and accidentally
stumble upon a prospect who becomes worthy of someone's top-100 list.
Yet, this is actually the FOURTH time Scott Romonosky has managed to
achieve this feat!
How does this keep happening? Just take
a look at this team's #1 draft picks over the last decade: Starlin
Castro, Trey McNutt, Junior Lake, Bryce Brentz, Rio Ruiz, Gleyber
Torres, Jose M. Fernandez, Bobby Dalbec, Aramis Ademan, and Brailyn
Marquez. With the exceptions of Castro and Torres, it's been a parade of
one stinker after another. The Sphinx continue to defy conventional
wisdom year after year. Successful teams generally need a decent farm
system, either to benefit from those prospects directly or through
trade. Yet, the Sphinx have won 295 games in the past three years
despite not owning a single rated prospect. HOW is that even possible??
|