January, 2020
2020
Draft Day Preview
Last year, Chris Sale became the fourth
player in league history (since 2000) to win a Cy Young award in the
same year in which he was drafted or acquired in the auction. We could
very well see at least one more player repeat that feat in 2020. The
reigning EL Cy Young Jacob deGrom and two-time BDBL Cy Young Max
Scherzer are both free agents this winter.
Likewise, the reigning EL MVP (or, at
least, he should have been),
Christian Yelich, is available on the open market. These award-winners
barely scratch the surface of this incredibly talented, diverse, and
interesting Free Agent Class of 2020. Adding to the drama of this year's
auction is a higher-than-average amount of money to be spent, both in
total and per player. And, as if that weren't enough excitement, this
will also be the first year we will be using a real-time D-Day auction
system, where bids are immediately calculated. Speculation abounds as to
the inflationary effect that will have on auction prices.
deGrom (204 IP, 2.43 ERA) is the
obvious crown jewel of this year's auction class. His VORP is over 17
points higher than the next-best free agent available (Yelich.) Sale
went for $16 million last year, despite throwing only 158 MLB innings.
Four years ago, both Zack Greinke and Jake Arrieta went for $18 million.
You have to go all the way back to 2011 to find a pitcher who went for a
higher salary than that (Roy Halladay, for $19 million.) deGrom could
very well become the first $20 million player in the BDBL since Johan
Santana ($20.5M) and C.C. Sabathia ($22M) in 2010.
Scherzer (172+ IP, 2.92 ERA) and
Hyun-Jin Ryu (182+ IP, 2.32 ERA) are a pair of aces comprising the
second tier below deGrom. Mike Minor (208+, 3.59), Matt Boyd (185+,
4.56), Jake Odorizzi (159, 3.51), James Paxton (150+, 3.52), Trevor
Bauer (213, 4.48), and Jordan Lyles (141, 4.15) form a very solid third
tier of starting pitching.
On the offensive side, in addition to
Yelich (580 PA, 1.100 OPS), there are a ton of impact bats available,
including Yasmani Grandal (632, .848), J.D. Martinez (657, .939), Max
Kepler (596, .855), Mark Canha (497, .913), Paul Goldschmidt (682,
.821), and Marcell Ozuna (549, .800).
As always, there are plenty of bullpen
options as well, including Ross Stripling (90+ IP, 3.47 ERA), Kirby
Yates (60+, 1.19), Matt Barnes (64+, 3.78), and Aroldis Chapman (57,
2.21). Or, if you don't mind having a child molester in your clubhouse,
Felipe Vazquez (60, 1.65) is also available.
If reclamation projects are your thing,
you can always take a gamble on a bounce-back year from Corey Kluber,
Chris Archer, and/or Rich Hill.
How does this year's auction
class compare to others?
In comparison to auction classes over
the past decade, this year's class ranks near the top overall:
2003: 2,006.9
2004: 2,210.3
2005: 2,155.9
2006: 1,903.2
2007: 1,858.0
2008: 1,522.4
2009: 1,239.8
2010: 1,475.4
2011: 1,230.1
2012: 995.3
2013: 947.0
2014: 1,237.1
2015: 898.1
2016: 1,146.6
2017: 1,532.9
2018: 1,426.6
2019: 1,270.5
2020: 1,285.9
When looking only at the top ten, this class looks very similar to the
past four classes, and almost identical to the Class of 2018:
2003: 729.6
2004: 680.8
2005: 762.0
2006: 621.8
2007: 654.2
2008: 579.5
2009: 524.4
2010: 582.9
2011: 488.3
2012: 415.6
2013: 373.5
2014: 434.9
2015: 314.6
2016: 425.3
2017: 523.1
2018: 517.7
2019: 506.4
2020: 517.6
Although the Class of 2018
is most similar by VORP, the two classes don't look alike at all on
paper. No player in the Class of '18 topped $12.5 million in salary.
This year's class will likely see at least three players top that
figure. The Class of '18 was heavily-weighted toward hitting (Freddie
Freeman, Jose Altuve, Charlie Blackmon, Anthony Rizzo.) This year's
class is very pitching-heavy.
What about the draft class?
If you have a high draft pick this
year, congratulations. Assuming you don't spend all your money in the
auction, your team now has a closer. Brandon Workman (71+ IP, 1.88 ERA),
Pedro Baez (69, 3.10), Michael Lorenzen (83+, 2.92), Alex Colome (61,
2.80), Zach Britton (61+, 1.91), Tyler Clippard (62, 2.90), Will Harris
(60, 1.50), Yusmeiro Petit (83, 2.71), and Emilio Pagan (70, 2.31) are
only a handful of the closers that are available in the draft this year.
A few mid-rotation options are
available as well, including Andrew Cashner (150 IP, 4.68 ERA), Wade
Miley (167+, 3.98), Brett Anderson (176, 3.89), and Bobby Sylvester
favorite Michael Pineda (146, 4.01).
On the offense side, Mike Yastrzemski
(411 PA, .852 OPS) somehow failed to make the top-50, as did C.J. Cron
(499, .780), Robinson Cano (423, .735), and Wil Myers (490, .739). Other
than those three, you'll be hard-pressed to find a useful full-time bat.
If you're in rebuilding mode, you may
find some value in veterans coming off of injury-plagued seasons (Justin
Upton, Odubel Herrera, Scooter Gennett, Greg Bird, Logan Morrison,
Carlos Rodon, Jimmy Nelson, Jordan Montgomery, Taijuan Walker, Dellin
Betances.)
How much money is out there this year?
Every year, without exception, we hear
the lament: "There is SO much money out there this year! More than ever
before!" And every year, it's wrong. There is more total money available
to spend in 2020 than there was the past two years, but historically,
we're pretty much in line with each of the past five seasons:
Year |
Total cash
available ($MM) |
# of free
agents needed |
Cash per
player ($MM) |
$ spent in
auction
($MM) |
2003 |
$557.1 |
360 |
$1.55 |
$328.5 (59%) |
2004 |
$606.2 |
343 |
$1.77 |
$363.5 (60%) |
2005 |
$498.2 |
292 |
$1.71 |
$318.0 (64%) |
2006 |
$621.3 |
327 |
$1.90 |
$341.5 (55%) |
2007 |
$569.0 |
296 |
$1.92 |
$364.5 (64%) |
2008 |
$595.5 |
320 |
$1.86 |
$324.0 (54%) |
2009 |
$543.3 |
292 |
$1.86 |
$289.5 (53%) |
2010 |
$417.5 |
261 |
$1.60 |
$289.5 (69%) |
2011 |
$472.9 |
295 |
$1.60 |
$269.0 (57%) |
2012 |
$361.0 |
267 |
$1.35 |
$214.5 (59%) |
2013 |
$511.8 |
293 |
$1.75 |
$272.0 (53%) |
2014 |
$489.0 |
297 |
$1.64 |
$296.5 (61%) |
2015 |
$352.5 |
275 |
$1.28 |
$201.0 (57%) |
2016 |
$540.9 |
291 |
$1.85 |
$278.5 (51%) |
2017 |
$589.7 |
306 |
$1.93 |
$294.0 (50%) |
2018 |
$505.9 |
295 |
$1.71 |
$253.0 (50%) |
2019 |
$523.6 |
284 |
$1.84 |
$274.0 (52%) |
2020 |
$573.2 |
316 |
$1.81 |
TBD |
Although the overall dollars are
similar, the distribution is much different than years past. (See
below.)
Which teams will be spending all this money?
Since 2007 (the first year I kept such
records), we have never seen three teams with $40 million or more to
spend in the auction and draft...until now. The Kansas Law Dogs ($45.2
million), Ravenswood Infidels ($42M), and Bear Country Jamboree ($40.1M)
all have a TON of money to spend this winter. If it seems like Chris
Luhning appears at the top of the spending list every year, it's only
because he does. Luhning spends a shit-ton of money on free agents every
winter, then trades away all of those big-money contracts the following
winter, freeing up a shit-ton of money to spend on free agents yet
again. Lather, rinse, repeat. Luhning not only has a shit-ton of money
overall, but he ranks #3 in the league in available cash per open roster
spot ($2.7 million.)
Trailing close behind the $40M Club are
the Great Lakes Sphinx ($38.6M), Las Vegas Flamingoes ($38.3M), and --
wait for it -- the Allentown Ridgebacks ($37.5M). St. Louis ($36.2M) and
Kansas City ($35.5M) also have a shit-ton of money to spend. That gives
us EIGHT teams with more than $35 million to spend. Last year, only half
as many teams enjoyed such a spending budget.
On a per-player basis, the KC
Boulevards ($3.2M per player) and Akron Ryche ($3.1M) lead the way. On
the flip side, the poor Saskatoon Sasquatch have 16 roster spots to
fill, and can only fill them with $100K picks. Which means we won't hear
from Kyle until about the third week of January.
How does the Class of 2021
look at this point?
The biggest fish of all, Mike Trout,
will be up for grabs in 2021. The last time the BDBL saw a star that big
hit the open market was when Barry Bonds was still active. In any other
year, Nolan Arenado would have been the Big Kahuna of free agency. He'll
have to settle for second fiddle next winter.
Starling Marte, Jay Bruce, Mike
Moustakas, Michael Brantley, Jose Abreu, Jorge Soler, Eugenio Suarez,
Andrew McCutchen, J.T. Realmuto, Marcus Semien, Nick Castellanos,
Anthony Rizzo, Charlie Blackmon, Brian Dozier, D.J. LeMahieu, Jose
Ramirez, and Paul DeJong will be free agents on the offensive side.
On the pitching side, Lance Lynn, Adam
Ottavino, Cole Hamels, Charlie Morton, Carlos Carrasco, Yu Darvish,
Kenta Maeda, Zack Wheeler, and Julio Teheran highlight a comparatively
mediocre market. |