January, 2021

2021 Draft Day Preview

2020 was a year unlike any other in human history, filled with unprecedented actions that would have seemed inconceivable a year ago. Like everything else in 2020, the BDBL was severely affected by the global pandemic known as "COVID-19." As a result, for the first time in our league's history, we will not be playing with actual MLB stats, but projected stats. This will have a major effect on our 2021 season, and that effect extends to Draft Day.

In addition to the major change in the stats that we use to play this game, there were also some significant changes made to our rulebook, which will have a tremendous impact on this season and this auction/draft. Some of those rule changes were made necessary by the pandemic. Others were passed via voting in September of 2019, back when the world was relatively normal.

Perhaps the most significant rule change we introduced this year was to erase all bonuses and penalties for wins and losses. The total amount of spending money available this winter is in the same ballpark as past years, but with one major difference: the teams with the most amount of money to spend are generally those who were toward the bottom of the standings a year ago. Hopefully, this will help break the pattern of seeing the same teams in the postseason year after year.

For only the third time in league history, a team will have more than $50 million to spend this winter. (More on that story below.) And, for the first time ever, Mike Trout will be a free agent. (More on that story below, as well.)

The 2021 BDBL season is shaping up to be a very interesting and competitive season already. Pandemic, schmandemic. The BDBL rolls on like an unstoppable freight train.

How does this year's auction class compare to others?

Well...we have no way of knowing the answer to that question. Comparing VORP, as we have in past years, would be pointless, given the fact that MLB played only 60 games in 2020. That said, there is a ton of offensive talent available this winter, including arguably the greatest free agent available in the auction since Barry Bonds. Not since Bonds has their been a safer bet to produce MVP-caliber numbers year after year than Mike Trout. Unlike Bonds, who became a free agent in his late-30's and early-40's, Trout is still in the prime of his career at age 29.

In the winter of 2009, Jeff Paulson paid a record $22 million for a 28-year-old C.C. Sabathia, who earned every penny of that salary by winning 29 games and a Cy Young award that year, en route to the Undertakers' first of many BDBL championships, and 20-plus games over the next two years. Could Mike Trout fetch more than $22 million? You betcha. In fact, I would say it's almost a certainty.

In this year of regressed/normalized stats, Trout is the only player on the disk with an overall OPS of over 1.000, and the only one with a 1.000+ OPS against left-handers. He leads all hitters on the disk in OPS, OPS vs. LH, OPS vs. RH, runs created, on-base percentage, slugging, and RC/27. He is one of only five hitters with 40+ home runs, and one of only three hitters with a 1.000+ OPS against right-handers.

Gosh, I wonder who will be bidding heavily on Trout this winter! Could it be the guy who has a history of putting all of his auction eggs in one basket, leaving a roster filled with emptiness? Hmm...

In addition to Trout, those with spending money can fight over the rights to Nolan Arenado (.298/.367/.567 projection) for the first time in league history. Jose Ramirez (.281/.361/.527), Nick Castellanos (.281/.335/.521), Charlie Blackmon (.298/.355/.519), Anthony Rizzo (.284/.388/.510), Marcus Semien (.274/.348/.486), and Eugenio Suarez (.262/.349/.515) are available as well.

Those guys are the "A Team." The "B Team" isn't too shabby, either: Trey Mancini (.273/.337/.495), Carlos Santana (.253/.365/.455), Jorge Soler (.256/.351/.509), J.T. Realmuto (.277/.333/.498), Mike Moustakas (.270/.332/.521), D.J. LeMahieu (.293/.345/.440), Jose Abreu (.269/.322/.476), and Starling Marte (.285/.332/.460) all created between 80 and 95 runs on the disk.

On the pitching side, the pickings are slim. Yu Darvish (154+ IP, 3.56 ERA), Charlie Morton (159 IP, 3.34 ERA), Lance Lynn (173+ IP, 4.05 ERA), Zack Wheeler (177 IP, 4.02 ERA), and Robbie Ray (164+ IP, 4.00 ERA) represented the cream of a very thin crop before Mike Stein graciously handed Justin Verlander (190+ IP, 3.22 ERA) his walking papers. Assuming our newly-formed auction committee adds Verlander to the mix, he will become the #1 pitching target of the auction, and is guaranteed to fetch Jacob deGrom-type money in this severely-depressed pitching market, even despite his age and health concerns.

Another pitcher released on Cutdown Day who will surely be added to the top-50 is Felipe Vazquez (64 IP, 2.67 ERA). He becomes the best relief option available in the auction, with very few others who even resemble a closer. Given that Vazquez is scheduled to spend the bulk of the next few years behind bars, and can be released without penalty at the end of this season, it's a given that he will fetch well over $5 million in this auction. The only question is how much money a team is willing to spend for a one-year closer.

The next-closest resemblance to a "closer" available this winter is Cowtippers castaway Taylor Rogers (3.09 ERA in 67 IP.) In a year where no pitcher has dominant stats, the whole idea of having a shutdown closer has gone out the window for the time being. Every team in the league will face challenges in the late innings as a result of our normalized projections.

What about the draft class?

Normally, it is a wise draft strategy to grab bargains in the draft who were injured, or simply slumped, in the previous MLB season, and hope for a comeback. This year, that strategy is mostly impossible, as the auction committee has already factored this into their equation, and our normalized projections washed out any actual injuries and slumps that occurred during the 2020 MLB season.

What remains are the fliers and roster-fillers that you would normally find after Round 25 of our draft. Because it's baseball, some of those guys will actually have productive MLB 2021 seasons (if they are allowed to play at all this year.) Discovering those hidden gems will be either a total crapshoot or an indication of general managerial genius.

How much money is out there this year?

I have often felt that the BDBL could be used as a model for some young Economics major's thesis paper. It really is fascinating to see how our little micro-economy works from year-to-year. Our total currency in circulation hasn't changed since 1998, and yet due to the laws of supply-and-demand, we have seen some drastic changes through the years in terms of how teams allocate their spending money.

This year, after several years of shifting the goalposts on bonuses and penalties for wins and losses, we finally dumped the entire concept altogether. You would think that would have had a major impact on the amount of spending money available this winter, but it appears as though the bonuses and penalties simply cancelled each other out. As a result, the total spending money available this year is roughly in line with past years.

That said, take a look at the table below. Notice that "cash per player" column for 2021? Teams will have an average of over $2 million to spend per free agent for the first time in our auction's history. There are a total of 840 roster spots (on the 35-man roster) in the BDBL. This year, 575 of those spots are already filled, as the players from last year were given extensions to this season. That leaves only 265 roster spots that need to be filled this winter:

In 2012, we needed to fill roughly the same number of spots (267), but we had a whopping $181.7 million less to spend! In 2010, there were only 261 spots to fill (a record-low), but there was $125.2 million less to spend. What we're looking at this winter is a tremendous amount of money to be spent on a very small number of players. Big demand, plus low supply, equals massive inflation!

There is one other wrinkle to this auction that is unprecedented in league history, and which could have significant ramifications on pricing. Until this year, the top 50 free agents were objectively chosen by their VORP totals over the previous three MLB seasons. This year, those fifty were chosen subjectively by a committee. In past years, we saw many deserving free agents miss the top-50 for various reasons. That will not be the case in 2021. This year's auction class should be filled with the most-deserving top-50 free agents ever. Which means that column to the far-right could break 2010's record of 69% of all money spent in the auction. Buckle-up!

Which teams will be spending all this money?

Here is where it gets very interesting. We could very well see a situation unfolding where a team is able to buy its way into the postseason. This has happened before, as recently as last season, when Matt Clemm used his significant funding to purchase Aroldis Chapman, Hyun-Jin Ryu, J.D. Martinez, Wilson Ramos, and Paul Goldschmidt in the auction. Those players carried Bear Country into the postseason (although, granted, just barely, as it required a one-game playoff to get there through the wildcard.)

This winter, we have a team that has enough money to do the same. However, that team -- the newly-named South Philly Gritty -- not only has the money, but has a foundation of talent significant enough to carry them further into the postseason than the Jamboree last season. Like the kid born with a silver spoon in his mouth, J.D. Luhning begins his BDBL career with a roster that already includes Carlos Correa, Lourdes Gurriel, Austin Meadows, and Roberto Osuna. He then has a whopping $51 million to fill in the rest of the roster.

Two years ago, the Darien Blue Wave set a new BDBL auction-era record with $52.3 million in spending cash. Only one other team -- the 2010 Chicago Black Sox -- ever had more than $50 million to spend (although the 2019 Iron Spider Pigs came close, at $49.8 million.) Of course, none of those three teams finished their season with a record above .500, but they also didn't have the foundation that South Philly has.

The other big spenders this winter will be the Lake Norman Monsters ($47.7 million), Joplin Miners ($38.9), Buckingham Sovereigns ($37), Darien Blue Wave ($34.8), and Las Vegas Flamingos ($30.2). What do five of the six top spending teams all have in common? They all finished the 2020 BDBL season below .500.

At the opposite end of the spending spectrum, the Ravenswood Infidels ($2.7 million), Salem Cowtippers ($4.6), Bear Country Jamboree ($11), Great Lakes Sphinx ($11.1), and Los Altos Undertakers ($12.5) will mostly sit on the sidelines throughout the auction. What do those five teams have in common? They all finished above .500 in 2020!

How does the Class of 2022 look at this point?

The 2022 auction is shaping up to be a tremendous pitcher's market. This draft class is filled with aces: Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Sonny Gray, Patrick Corbin, Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Roberto Osuna, Chris Sale, and Madison Bumgarner.

The offensive side looks a little light at this point, with Anthony Rendon heading the class, followed by a mixture of younger players still in their primes and fading superstars well past theirs: Ketel Marte, Tommy Pham, Trevor Story, Justin Turner, Eddie Rosario, Matt Carpenter, Tim Anderson, Michael Conforto, and Joey Votto.