March, 2021
2021 BDBL
Farm Report
After an entire year without amateur
and minor league baseball (for the most part), not much has changed in
the prospects world since last March. There are no breakout seasons to
report. No career-threatening injuries. No new pitches developed or
major swing adjustments made -- at least, none with any in-game impact.
Despite the fact that trades are still
being made, players were still promoted to the big leagues, and players
were drafted and moved from the unranked to the ranked, there has been
very little movement in our team rankings from last year. Nine out of
the top-ten-ranked teams from 2020 are also among the top-ten this year.
And eight of the bottom-ten from a year ago are still ranked among the
bottom-ten today.
For the newbies, here is how our farm
report works. I gather the top-100 prospect lists from what we call our
"panel of experts." In past years, we have used up to five different
sources on our panel, but thanks to budget cuts, we're down to three:
Baseball America, MLB.com, and FanGraphs. I assign 100 points to the
top-ranked player in each list, 99 points to #2, 98 points to #3, etc..
I then sum all of the points to create a nifty little table like this
one:
Team |
Total Pts |
21 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
09 |
08 |
07 |
06 |
05 |
04 |
03 |
02 |
01 |
00 |
MBH |
2,079 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
9 |
24 |
24 |
7 |
18 |
12 |
21 |
21 |
7 |
13 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
8 |
12 |
16 |
22 |
DBW |
1,905 |
2 |
3 |
16 |
18 |
11 |
21 |
23 |
18 |
15 |
9 |
15 |
13 |
16 |
21 |
20 |
17 |
20 |
18 |
6 |
14 |
17 |
11 |
SAL |
1,110 |
3 |
9 |
15 |
16 |
13 |
2 |
13 |
9 |
23 |
23 |
20 |
6 |
10 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
1 |
10 |
7 |
1 |
NIA |
1,043 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
11 |
23 |
24 |
6 |
9 |
23 |
KAN |
1,031 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
12 |
6 |
19 |
18 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
22 |
23 |
9 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
11 |
16 |
11 |
4 |
HLF |
921 |
6 |
5 |
8 |
8 |
4 |
5 |
17 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
11 |
15 |
17 |
14 |
16 |
11 |
15 |
11 |
9 |
7 |
14 |
15 |
SPG |
880 |
7 |
7 |
12 |
9 |
8 |
12 |
4 |
13 |
8 |
13 |
10 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
7 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
10 |
18 |
18 |
8 |
CLT |
830 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
5 |
11 |
7 |
14 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
10 |
21 |
10 |
14 |
17 |
11 |
20 |
24 |
CHI |
786 |
9 |
6 |
7 |
13 |
15 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
13 |
15 |
9 |
1 |
6 |
12 |
2 |
10 |
14 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
8 |
12 |
ALN |
648 |
10 |
11 |
13 |
17 |
7 |
17 |
14 |
22 |
9 |
17 |
5 |
4 |
20 |
22 |
18 |
22 |
8 |
3 |
18 |
15 |
5 |
13 |
CAR |
547 |
11 |
16 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
10 |
1 |
24 |
8 |
5 |
11 |
9 |
19 |
10 |
23 |
17 |
12 |
19 |
LKN |
518 |
12 |
8 |
14 |
14 |
19 |
9 |
5 |
17 |
22 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
14 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
13 |
20 |
4 |
22 |
19 |
14 |
LVF |
483 |
13 |
18 |
21 |
19 |
21 |
20 |
15 |
16 |
20 |
18 |
22 |
20 |
11 |
10 |
14 |
15 |
21 |
17 |
13 |
23 |
22 |
16 |
LAU |
458 |
14 |
12 |
4 |
4 |
23 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
19 |
11 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
19 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
ISP |
456 |
15 |
17 |
20 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
22 |
24 |
18 |
22 |
11 |
24 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
JOP |
361 |
16 |
13 |
22 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
22 |
20 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
3 |
7 |
15 |
23 |
22 |
15 |
14 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
SCS |
313 |
17 |
14 |
19 |
21 |
14 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
12 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
12 |
5 |
9 |
13 |
2 |
3 |
10 |
17 |
SLF |
294 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
10 |
18 |
9 |
23 |
10 |
20 |
8 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
7 |
8 |
15 |
10 |
AKR |
179 |
19 |
22 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
16 |
11 |
14 |
11 |
7 |
5 |
12 |
8 |
23 |
12 |
18 |
21 |
15 |
13 |
2 |
9 |
BKS |
125 |
20 |
24 |
23 |
15 |
20 |
22 |
11 |
12 |
21 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
13 |
16 |
6 |
13 |
4 |
16 |
12 |
9 |
4 |
18 |
CLE |
74 |
21 |
15 |
9 |
3 |
18 |
15 |
10 |
15 |
19 |
19 |
16 |
10 |
21 |
20 |
13 |
19 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
24 |
24 |
20 |
GLS |
48 |
22 |
21 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
21 |
6 |
17 |
24 |
18 |
16 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
14 |
16 |
9 |
16 |
19 |
21 |
6 |
RAV |
39 |
23 |
20 |
11 |
7 |
17 |
13 |
12 |
19 |
11 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
22 |
24 |
23 |
12 |
22 |
20 |
13 |
5 |
BCJ |
19 |
24 |
23 |
17 |
23 |
22 |
14 |
19 |
24 |
6 |
6 |
13 |
8 |
9 |
23 |
9 |
3 |
12 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
21 |
#1
Myrtle Beach Hitmen
Ranked prospects: MacKenzie
Gore (5), Dylan Carlson (11), Andrew Vaughn (15), Tarik Skubal (20),
Corbin Carroll (35), Joey Bart (39), Nolan Jones (44), Kristian Robinson
(58), Zac Veen (62), Jo Adell (66), Forrest Whitley (72), Geraldo
Perdomo (72), Ivan Herrera (88)
Unranked prospects: Ji-Hwan Bae, Jose de la Cruz, Elijah Green,
Cristian Hernandez, Jordan Lawler, James Wood, Braden Olthoff
For the third year in a row, the Hitmen
rank #1 in this annual report. The Carolina Saints are the only other
franchise in league history that has achieved this feat. What happened
after that franchise ranked #1 three years in a row from 2014-16? Well,
they went on to win the BDBL championship in 2018. The long-suffering
fans in Myrtle Beach would love to see history repeat itself in that
same fashion.
Not much has changed on the Hitmen farm
since a year ago. Last year's #1 prospect, Adell, fell from #4 to #66
only because he graduated to the big leagues. Apparently, Baseball
America missed that memo, because they ranked him #13 in their top-100
this year. Gore, who was also ranked #5 a year ago, becomes the team's
new top prospect. The hard-tossing lefty is currently ranked as the best
pitching prospect in baseball. Unfortunately, with San Diego's stacked
starting rotation, it could be at least another two years before we see
him in the Hitmen rotation.
Carlson and Vaughn both made the leap
from the twenties to the teens over the past year. Carlson made the
top-ten
on BA's list after an impressive MLB debut last year in which he started
very slow, but ended on a high note in October. Both he and Vaughn are
likely to see full-time (or near-full-time) play for the Hitmen in 2022.
Last year's #1 pick, Skubal, pitched better in his MLB debut last year
than his numbers would suggest. He and Gore will soon become an imposing
duo at the top of the Myrtle Beach rotation.
Carroll (ranked #100 a year ago) made
the biggest leap up the chart after an impressive showing at Arizona's
alternate training site last summer. He is developing into a true
five-tool talent. (Yet another one the Cowtippers let get away.) Bart and
Jones give the Hitmen seven top-50 prospects, which is surpassed
only by the Blue Wave below. The same is true of Myrtle Beach's thirteen
top-100 prospects. Although
several of those players will graduate their way off this list over the
next year, they will soon be replaced by Green, Lawler, and Hernandez.
#2
Darien Blue Wave
Ranked prospects: Marco
Luciano (12), Matt Manning (23), Riley Greene (26), Michael Kopech (28),
J.J. Bleday (29), Logan Gilbert (32), Emerson Hancock (46), Trevor
Larnach (48), Ryan Jeffers (70), Heston Kjerstad (78), Noelvi Marte
(80), Matthew Allan (92), Adrian Morejon (104), Dane Dunning (121)
Unranked prospects: Hunter Barco, Jaden Hill, Tanner Houck, Kumar
Rocker, Noah Song
The Blue Wave spent a BDBL-record $26.5
million on one player in the auction on the gamble that their farm
system will produce enough minimum-wage talent to offset that ginormous
salary. They had better hope that gamble pays off!
Luciano has stepped to the plate just
206 times in his professional career, and never above the short-season
rookie level, and yet he ranks as the 12th-best prospect in baseball
overall, and was ranked among the top-20 by all three of our panel of
experts. His scouting reports suggest that he could be a Francisco
Lindor type of impact player up the middle if he continues to develop
according to plan.
If it seems like Kopech has been a
prospect forever, it's only because he has. He made his debut in this
report way back in 2015! Since then, he's hopped around from the New
Milford Blazers to the Ravenswood Infidels to the Flagstaff Outlaws to
the Allentown Ridgebacks to the Blue Wave. He rose all the way to #12 in
2018 and has hovered around in the twenties ever since. Despite missing
the entire 2019 and 2020 seasons, he is still ranked #28 overall thanks
to that 105-mph fastball.
This Darien team needs pitching so
desperately, they would like to see Kopech move quickly into the "ace"
role that so many have envisioned for him. Hancock, the
6th-overall pick of last year's MLB draft, could move quickly through
the system as well.
If he can stay healthy, Manning has the potential to be a front-end starter. Hill and Rocker are likely to join the top-50 a year
from now after they are drafted this year. Look for Kjerstad and Marte
to rise into the top-50 as well.
#3
Salem Cowtippers
Ranked prospects: Adley
Rutschman (2), Austin Martin (25), Asa Lacy (27), Spencer Howard (31),
Nick Madrigal (39)
Unranked prospects: Felnin Celesten, Brooks Lee, Casey Martin,
Jason Vosler, J.T. Ginn, Antoine Kelly, Carmen Mlodzinski, Connor
Prielipp
Somehow, the Cowtippers have avoided
trading away every decent prospect they own, leaving them with a
top-three farm system! In a year where nothing happened outside of Major
League Baseball, the Cowtippers farm leapt six spots in this survey
thanks to the graduations of the unranked (Austin Martin and Lacy) to
the top-30, thanks to the MLB draft. Rutschman is the highest-ranking Salem farmhand
since Andrew Benintendi. He joins Benny, Kris Bryant, Stephen Strasburg,
Jay Bruce, Delmon Young, B.J. Upton, and Mark Teixeira as top-two Salem
prospects. Not bad company! If all goes as planned, Rutschman will be
firmly-entrenched in the heart of the Salem lineup for many years to
come -- hopefully beginning in 2022.
Martin (ranked as high as #19 by BA)
should join him in the heart of that lineup within the next two years.
Madrigal, who hit .340 in his 103-AB MLB debut last year, is already
helping the big club. With Strasburg and Sonny Gray both set to depart via
free agency after this season, and Max Scherzer and Jon Gray trailing
close behind, the Cowtippers really need Lacy and Howard to step up and
replace their spots in the rotation quickly.
Howard and Madrigal are all-but-certain
to graduate their way off of this list within the next year, while the
other three ranked players have an outside chance of seeing
significant-enough MLB playing time to earn their way off the list as
well. This means someone will need to step up and fill those voids on
the farm. As it stands, it doesn't look like any of the unranked
prospects are quite ready to do so.
#4
Niagara Locks
Ranked prospects: Wander
F'ing Franco (1), Christian Pache (7), Bobby Witt (14), Jasson
Dominguez (37), Austin Hendrick (108)
Unranked prospects: Cam Collier, Ezequiel Duran, Andruw Jones,
Ronaldo Hernandez, Khalil Lee, Hedbert Perez, Rayner Santana, Jordan
Walker, Chris Rodriguez, Blake Walston
The top four prospects on this farm are
the same as last year, and in the same order, but mostly ranked higher
than a year ago. What is left to say about Wander F'ing Franco? He's the
next Mike Trout, but in shortstop form. He's the only 80-grade prospect
in baseball, and one of the only few that I've ever seen. And I traded
him for three chapters of Max Fucking Kepler. Three years later, I still
lose sleep over that trade. I figure by the time Franco is unanimously
elected into the Hall of Fame in 2051,
I might finally be over it. Of course, by then, I'll be happy just to be
alive.
Pache jumped several spots in this
ranking, and will likely graduate off of this list a year from now after
excelling late in the MLB season last year. Witt was ranked as high as
#7 (by MLB.com) following an impressive showing at the alternate
training site last summer and in the fall. He will likely move quickly.
The most exciting player on this roster
whose middle name isn't "F'ing" hasn't even played a single professional
game, and yet he's ranked in the top-40 overall, and as high as #32 (MLB.com).
Dominguez is the most hyped prospect since Franco, and could very well
become the next Franco. It would be shocking if he weren't ranked
among the top-ten (at least) a year from now.
The former owner of this franchise,
Steve Osborne, was famous (infamous?) for crafting his entire
farm-building strategy around stockpiling Japanese players. It seems
that Mike Ranney's strategy relies almost entirely on drafting 15- and
16-year-old Latin American players. The unranked list is filled with
players who could become the next Wander F'ing Franco, but could also
become the next Angel Villalona. That's the beauty of 15-year-old
lottery tickets.
#5
Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: C.J.
Abrams (6), Randy Arozarena (18), Casey Mize (22), Daniel Lynch (37),
Robert Hassell (69), Taylor Trammell (132)
Unranked prospects: Gabriel Arias, Peyton Burdick, Adrian Del
Castillo, Wilman Diaz, Hudson Head, Termarr Johnson, Chris Newell, Andy
Pages, Mark Vientos, Brady Singer, Kyle Isbel
Thanks to his record-setting postseason
performance, Arozarena was arguably the highest-profile breakout rookie
to take part in the abbreviated 2020 MLB season. After hitting
.281/.382/.641 in just 23 games (76 PA's) during the regular season,
Arozarena caught fire in October. He ended up with more PA's during the
postseason (91) than he had during the regular season, and hit
.358/.429/.790 in that span, with 10 homers in 18 games. FanGraphs is so
high on him that they ranked him #4 overall. Baseball America (#17) and
MLB (#34) were a little less exuberant. There are reasons to pump the
brakes a little. He's 26 years old. He's never been ranked by anyone on our panel
of experts in the long history of this Farm Report. His minor league
numbers (.292/.377/.477 career) suggest that he's good, but not quite as good
as he was last October. Still, if October's performance is his new
level, then that #4 ranking will look prescient.
Abrams rose from the mid-20's a year
ago to the top-10 this year on the strength of the defensive
improvements he showed at the alternate training site last summer.
Unfortunately, that improvement is pointless unless the Padres move
Fernando Tatis to another position. Given the fact that Tatis also showed
vast defensive improvement last year, and was just signed to a
fourteen-year contract, that seems unlikely. That means Abrams will
either need to be traded or will see a position switch in his future.
Mize was on the cusp of the top-ten a
year ago, but has fallen to the twenties after a somewhat disappointing
MLB debut in which he posted a 6.99 ERA over seven starts. Granted, it
was only seven starts, and there is no reason to believe he won't bounce
back in 2021. He could be joined in the 2022 Kansas rotation by the
newly-acquired Lynch, who is earning praise from his coaches in spring
training already.
#6
Highland Freedom
Ranked prospects: Jarred
Kelenic (3), Brandon Marsh (33), Nick Gonzales (55), Edward Cabrera
(60), Oneil Cruz (66), Brendan Rodgers (86), Mick Abel (96), Brendan
McKay (100), Alexander Vargas (121), Brett Baty (126)
Unranked prospects: Seth Beer, Blaze Jordan, Luke Leto, Jared
Walsh, Jay Groome, Kodai Senga, Cole Wilcox
The Freedom franchise's farm system has
ranked among the top ten six years in a row now. With new GM Bobby
Sylvester in charge, that streak will likely continue into the
foreseeable future. Under his watch, the (much) younger Sylvester's franchise
ranked among the top ten thirteen times in the past fifteen
seasons!
This is now the second year in a row
the Freedom has owned the #3 overall prospect in baseball.
Last year, it was Luis Robert. This year, the torch has been passed to Kelenic, who rose to that spot from #9 a year ago. Not much has changed
in the past year for the five-tool future all-star. A cup of coffee
seems more than likely in 2021. He should be batting in the heart of the
Freedom lineup every day by Opening Day, 2023.
Highland's new GM made a huge splash
with his first trade, adding Marsh, McKay, Abel, and the NL's Rookie of
the Year, Devin Williams, from the Cleveland Rocks in exchange for Zack
Greinke and Ketel Marte. Marsh was mostly known as a glove-first
shortstop until recently. He was ranked as high as #15 (FanGraphs) and
as low as #53 (MLB.com). McKay's immediate future depends on how he
recovers from torn labrum surgery last August. Abel is pure, raw, tools
and projection at this point. Missing the entire 2020 season due to the
Rona may have hurt players like him more than most.
The rest of the Highland farm is filled
with interesting prospects, but none more so than Senga, who has been
stuck in Japanese Limbo for the past four years as he has practically
begged his team to be posted. Unfortunately for him, the SoftBank
Hawks is the only team in the NPB that has never posted a player -- and
they don't intend to start now. He has one year remaining before he hits
free agency as a 30-year-old. Assuming he stays healthy, he should
make an immediate impact in the major leagues.
#7
South Philly Gritty
Ranked prospects: Nate
Pearson (10), Alex Kirilloff (19), Josiah Gray (48), Matthew Liberatore
(56), Jeremy Pena (89), Reid Detmers (103), Brayan Rocchio (107), Shane
McClanahan (111)
Unranked prospects: Gilberto Jimenez, Bayron Lora, Matt McLain,
Erick Pena, Ethan Wilson, Jackson Rutledge
Let's give Pearson a mulligan for his
performance during his long-awaited MLB debut last year. Yes, he walked
13 batters in 18 innings -- but it was only 18 innings, and he was dealing
with some injury issues. Fully-healthy, he is a big league front-line
starting pitcher. Kirilloff continued to display an elite contact rate
and burgeoning power throughout the summer camp and during his pro debut
in October. Gray and Liberatore could have really used another full year
to hone their craft and perfect their secondary pitches against
top-level competition in game situations. Unfortunately, like almost
every other prospect in this report, their 2020 season consisted of
nothing but exhibition games and side sessions.
Keep an eye on Detmers, who could move
quickly up the ladder, both in the Angels organization and in this
top-100 list. That unranked list above is filled with lottery tickets
that could either fizzle out or burst into flames at any moment.
#8
Charlotte Mustangs
Ranked prospects: Julio
Rodriguez (8), Ke'Bryan Hayes (9), Francisco Alvarez (41), George Valera
(87), Tyler Freeman (89), Daulton Varsho (92)
Unranked prospects: Maximo Acosta, Colin Barber, Colton Cowser,
Shed Long, Marcelo Mayer, Kyren Paris, Miguel Vargas, Kolby Allard,
Jonathan Cannon, J.J. Goss, Gunnar Hogland, Chase Petty
This is the first time this franchise
has ever owned two top-ten prospects in the Farm Report; however, it
isn't the first time that Tony Chamra has accomplished this feat. Way
back in 2006, when Chamra owned the Villanova Mustangs franchise (now
the South Philly Gritty), the 'Stangs farm included both Chad
Billingsley (#7) and Andy Marte (#9). For the sake of present-day 'Stangs
fans, let's hope history doesn't repeat itself. Rodriguez was ranked
among the top-five by both BA and MLB, but fell to #20 on the FanGraphs
list for some reason. Hayes jumped all the way into the top-ten from #39
a year ago, following his impressive 95-PA MLB debut (.376/.442/.682)
last year.
At 18 and 19 years old, respectively,
Alvarez and Valera are a long way from the big leagues, but have very
high ceilings. Both will likely begin this season at the Low-A level.
The unranked group is filled with players I've never heard of, but I'm
sure they're all great. I especially hope that Gunnar Hogland makes it,
because his name is so much fun to say, and there is so much potential
for nicknames and puns.
#9
Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Ian
Anderson (12), Jordan Groshans (51), Brennan Davis (53), D.L. Hall (63),
Brailyn Marquez (64), Tyler Stephenson (100), Shea Langeliers (102),
Tyler Soderstrom (123)
Unranked prospects: Owen Caissie, Ed Howard, Spencer Jones,
Reggie Preciado, Chase Strumpf, Travis Swaggerty, Elijah Tatis, Jared
Kelley, Bobby Miller, Nate Savino
The BDBL's most notorious flag-wavers
added Anderson to the mix just prior to Opening Day, at the mere expense
of Clayton Kershaw. On the plus side, Anderson finished with a miniscule
1.95 ERA in his big league debut last year, and then carried that
performance over to the postseason. On the minus side, it was only six
starts. Believe it or not, Anderson becomes the first pitcher to be
ranked as this franchise's top prospect since Yovani Gallardo, way back
in 2007. In fact, the similarity between the minor league records of
those two pitchers is eerie:
|
IP |
ERA |
RA9 |
H/9 |
HR/9 |
BB/9 |
K/9 |
Anderson |
378 |
2.91 |
3.19 |
7.0 |
0.4 |
4.0 |
10.7 |
Gallardo |
459 |
2.78 |
3.27 |
7.1 |
0.4 |
3.2 |
10.0 |
The two Cubs prospects, Davis and
Marquez, came over this winter from Phase One of the Great Flag-Waving
Project of '21, in exchange for Freddie Freeman. Davis has 30/30 upside,
but is a long way from reaching that upside. Marquez may end up in the
bullpen, but would be dominant in that role. Groshans is a bat-first
shortstop, which means he will likely end up at third base eventually.
The unranked group is filled with
several players who could/should make the leap into the ranked a year
from now, including Preciado, Savino, Miller, and Kelley.
#10
Allentown Ridgebacks
Ranked prospects: Spencer
Torkelson (4), Triston Casas (47), Jeter Downs (52), Jose Garcia (77)
Unranked prospects: Franklin Labour, Kendall Simmons, Michael
Toglia, Ryan Vilade, Adbert Alzolay, Luke Little
The top two prospects on the Allentown
farm are all holdovers from the Newgard Era. Torkelson was acquired by
Newgard from the Myrtle Beach Hitmen in 2019 (along with Keibert Ruiz!)
in exchange for...checking my notes...Travis Shaw?? What happened
there?? Casas came over from the Salem Cowtippers in 2019 in exchange
for none-other-than Kike Hernandez. (Worth. Every. Penny!)
Downs was foolishly cut by Salem in
2019, drafted by Darien in the first round of the 2020 farm draft, and
was then traded to Allentown in that monster 13-player trade this past
winter that involved Matt Olson and Michael Kopech (among many others.)
Torkelson is one of the safest bets in
this entire report to become an all-star-caliber player in the
near-future. He will hit for average and massive power, draw plenty of
walks, and won't be a liability in the field. If he is promoted to The
Show in 2021, we will see an Allentown lineup next year that features Torkelson, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, George Springer, and Matt
Olson. Won't that be fun!?
#11
Carolina Saints
Ranked prospects: Luis
Patino (17), Triston McKenzie (45), Jazz Chisholm (58), Brice Turang
(111)
Unranked prospects: Oscar Colas, Carlos Colmenarez, Estevan
Florial, Brady House, Jung-hoo Lee, Robert Puason, Cristian Santana,
Khalil Watson, Ty Madden, Yerry Rodriguez, Tomoyuki Sugano
Bobby Sylvester practically owned this
Farm Report for nearly a decade, between 2011 and 2019. This farm system
is now under new management, however, and it is now Don Swearingen's job
to keep this torch lit for a while longer. With the exception of Turang
(acquired via trade from the franchise that Sylvester now helms), every
ranked prospect on this farm is a holdover from the Sylvester Era. Of
the unranked group, Swearingen added Madden, Watson, Lee, and Santana in
this winter's draft.
Patino seems to get better and better
every year. There are still some concerns that he'll end up in the
bullpen, but you know that his new team in Tampa Bay will do everything
they can to make him a frontline starter. (And they have the track
record to do just that.) It's easy to imagine Patino joining McKenzie in
the '22 Saints rotation. After missing the entire 2019 season, McKenzie
made his big league debut last year and didn't seem to skip a beat. He
looks as though he's ready for prime time.
The unranked group seems to include
several cautionary tales for risk-averse investors. It wasn't that long
ago that Puason was considered to be the Jasson Dominguez of the
international class. House was the consensus best high school player in
the nation. Colas was the latest/greatest can't-miss Cuban
superstar. Sugano was a shoo-in to become the next great Japanese
pitching import. Things change very quickly when it comes to these
long-shot lottery tickets! That said, the Saints could dominate the
first round of the MLB draft with several of those unranked players.
#12
Lake Norman Monsters
Ranked prospects: Sixto
Sanchez (15), Royce Lewis (21), Hunter Greene (98)
Unranked prospects: Keoni Cavaco, Yoelqui Cespedes, Armando Cruz,
Levi Kelly, Eric Pardinho, Norge Vera
Lake Norman's recent trade with the
Kansas Law Dogs netted Lewis, who single-handedly bumped this team's
ranking up a notch, from #13 to #12. The #1 overall pick of the 2017 MLB
draft stumbled badly (.661 OPS) in 2019, but rebounded in the fall, and
showed well at the alternate camp last summer. At his best, he is a
five-tool shortstop. At worst, he will be a versatile utility infielder
with a good bat and a good glove.
The team's top prospect, Sanchez,
ranked as high as #6 (by Baseball America) and as low as #28 (FanGraphs.)
He got a boost from his #28 ranking a year ago thanks to an impressive
39-inning MLB debut in 2020 that culminated with five shutout innings in
the postseason. He and the hard-throwing Greene could be a formidable
one-two punch in the Monsters rotation at some point down the road.
#13
Las Vegas Flamingos
Ranked prospects: Grayson
Rodriguez (24), Nolan Gorman (43), Heliot Ramos (74), Jordyn Adams (119)
Unranked prospects: Yasel Antuna, Kody Hoese, Bo Naylor, Ronnier
Quintero, Cole Roederer, Anthony Volpe, Hans Crouse, Jack Leiter, Jared
Shuster
Rodriguez must the quietest top-25
prospect in recent history. You never hear much of anything about him.
Maybe it's because he's with such a boring MLB organization? If he comes
anywhere near replicating his minor league performance in the big
leagues, that could change in a hurry. To me, he looks like the AL's
version of Spencer Howard, who is ranked seven spots lower on this list!
Gorman seems more well-known than
Rodriguez thanks to his high-profile high school career. He has the
potential to be a power-hitting, middle-of-the-order, run-producer in
his prime, but he'll have to cut way down on his strikeouts to get
there. Like Gorman, Ramos was also a highly-touted first-round draft
pick out of high school. He also hits for power, and also has his issues
with whiffs. Adams was yet another first-rounder, who is known more for
his 80-grade speed than his bat.
The unranked list is filled with guys
who make my forehead wrinkle. I have no idea who they are except for
one. Leiter is either the #1- or #2-ranked prospect in the Class of '21,
depending on who you ask. He was flashing triple-digits (according to a
juiced-up radar gun) in his first start of the season for Vandy. He could be the franchise pitcher the
Flamingos have been searching for since 1999.
#14
Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Luis
Campusano (34), Vidal Brujan (42), Josh Jung (64)
Unranked prospects: Luisangel Acuna, Sherten Apostel, Rodrick
Arias, Brayan Buelvas, Jeremiah Jackson, Alexander Mojica, Seiya Suzuki,
Cristian Vaquero, Kohei Arihana, Slade Cecconi, Ryan Pepiot, Zack
Thompson
Well, this is jarring to see, isn't it?
The legendary Los Altos Undertakers farm system is ranked among the bottom
half of the BDBL? As if we needed more signs of the coming Apocalypse,
surely this is the most obvious of them all! This is only the fourth
time in the 22-year history of the BDBL Farm Report that Los Altos has
ranked in the bottom half. The last time this happened was in 2017...which
was followed by a top-five ranking in the following two years. In other words,
don't expect this to last much longer.
Brujan (#24 by FanGraphs) and Campusano
(#27 by FG) were the only two Los Altos prospects who earned a top-30
ranking by any of our panel of experts. Campusano went from A-ball to
the big leagues last year, thanks to the Rona, and hit an opposite-field
homer in his very first game. Unfortunately for him, that was his last
game in the big leagues, as he suffered a season-ending injury after
that. Brujan grades out as a top-of-the-lineup speedster who will get on
base and carry an above-average glove.
GM Jeff Paulson rolled the dice on two
types of players in that unranked group: Japanese veterans and
15-year-old lottery tickets. Arihara will make his MLB debut with the
Rangers this year. At this point, he looks more like a
back-of-the-rotation inning-eater than an ace, but that remains to be
seen. Suzuki is a power/speed outfielder who won a ton of gold glove
awards (or their equivalent) in Japan. He will likely come to the US at
the end of this season. Arias and Vaquero are both 15 years old, and
both are considered to be among the top Latin prospects on the market
this year.
#15
North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs
Ranked prospects: Max Meyer
(29), Alek Thomas (70), Ryan Mountcastle (79), Andres Gimenez (89),
Xavier Edwards (96), Sam Huff (106), Jackson Kowar (127), A.J. Puk (130)
Unranked prospects: Diego Cartaya, Jud Fabian, Jesus Galiz,
Jonathan India, Cal Raleigh, Luis Rodriguez, Ethan Hankins, Ethan Lindow,
Jonathan Steiver
Meyer was the third overall pick in the
MLB draft last year, and was the second (I believe) overall pick in last
summer's BDBL midseason farm draft. He is one of the few players
acquired in 2020 who made this list, and the highest-ranked of that
group, by far. With his triple-digit fastball and 80-grade slider, he
has the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation ace. Puk was ranked #32 on
this list a year ago, but earned only one ranking (#99 by FanGraphs)
this year. Like almost all of the players on this list, he didn't play a
single game in 2020. Unlike most others, it was because he was injured
the entire year. The early reports from spring training are promising,
however.
The unranked group is a lot more
interesting than the ranked group, as far as I'm concerned. Cartaya has
one of the strongest arms behind the plate in all of baseball. Fabian
could be a top-ten draft pick this summer. Rodriguez has yet to play a
single professional game, but could surprise a lot of people this year,
and could easily appear on this top-100 list a year from now.
#16
Joplin Miners
Ranked prospects: Quinn
Priester (50), Clarke Schmidt (75), Simeon Woods Richardson (76), George
Kirby (92), Orelvis Martinez (114), Miguel Amaya (117)
Unranked prospects: Patrick Bailey, Yiddi Cappe, Kameron Misner,
Misael Urbina, Ryan Cusick, Ryan Rolison, Jordan Wicks
It's hardly a secret that Jim Doyle
went all-in on the 2021 season. Toward that effort, he sacrificed Ian
Anderson (#12), Randy Arozarena (#18), and Royce Lewis (#21). If he had held
on to all three, the Miners would rank fourth in this report, just three
points below the Salem Cowtippers. Sacrifices must be made in order to
get that shot at the OL wildcard.
The four best prospects on this farm
now are pitchers -- and you know what they say about pitching prospects. Priester was a late first-round pick in
2019, and tossed fewer than 40 innings in his pro debut prior to 2020's
lost season. He's big, he throws hard and he's working on his breaking
stuff. That gives him something in common with probably 90-percent of
all pitching prospects. Schmidt is a little less big, throws a little
less hard, and has a better breaking ball than most. Like Priester and
Schmidt, Kirby was also selected in the first round of the MLB draft. He
is known more for his control and command than his size, fastball
velocity, and spin rates.
#17
South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked prospects: Ronny
Mauricio (53), Garrett Crochet (61), Garrett Mitchell (83), Jordan
Balazovic (105), Shane Baz (119), Cade Cavalli (130), Tahnaj Thomas
(132)
Unranked prospects: Alexander Canario, Luis Garcia, Heriberto
Hernandez, Nico Hoerner, Mason Martin, Lolo Sanchez, Braden Schewmake,
Nick Yorke, Tanner Burns
Once upon a time, the Sea Cats farm
system ruled this annual report. However, it has now been six
years since this farm ranked among the top ten in the BDBL. This is only
the third time in franchise history that South Carolina hasn't owned a
top-50 prospect. Mauricio (#42 by FanGraphs) was the only Sea Cat to be
ranked among the top-50 by any of our panel. He is all about projection
at this point. His scouting report is filled with words like "may" and
"could be" and "should."
Had it not been for the two Garretts
South Carolina received from Salem last summer, the 'Cats would have
ranked among the bottom five for only the second time in history.
Crochet was the 11th overall pick in the MLB draft last summer, and was
the first player in that draft to be promoted to the big leagues. He was
a major weapon out of the Chicago bullpen late in the season, and he
could fill that role again for them this year. Eventually, he will be a
frontline starter. Mitchell is a five-tool stud who has made vast
improvements each and every year. Balazovic, Baz, Cavalli, and Thomas
are all pitching prospects ranked in the 90's by our panel. At this
point, each one of them has a 50/50 chance of either bursting into flames or disappearing into
obscurity.
#18
South Loop Furies
Ranked prospects: Drew
Waters (36), Josh Lowe (84), Nick Lodolo (85), Hunter Bishop (111)
Unranked prospects: Bryan Acuna, Bryce Ball, Pete Crow-Armstrong,
Jarren Duran, Bryson Stott, Anderson Tejeda, Bryce Jarvis, Ethan Small
The South Loop farm system has ranked
between #18 and #20 for four years in a row now, all during a rebuilding
period. You have to wonder: if the Furies aren't rebuilding through the
farm, then how, exactly, are they rebuilding? Or are they?
Not much has changed since a year ago.
Waters and Lowe are still ranked #1 and #2. Lodolo and Bishop, two
first-round picks from the 2019 draft, were picked up from the Myrtle
Beach Hitmen and Allentown Ridgebacks, respectively, through a pair of
trades since last year's report. That's it. That's all the movement on
the farm during the past year.
Acuna, the youngest brother of Ronald,
will be eligible to sign with a MLB team this summer. I haven't seen his
name mentioned anywhere as a name to watch this coming year, but maybe I
missed it.
#19
Akron Ryche
Ranked prospects: Keibert
Ruiz (57), Alejandro Kirk (82), Gabriel Moreno (125)
Unranked prospects: Tristin English, Gunnar Henderson, Miguel
Hiraldo, Gabriel Moreno, Terrin Vavra, Colton Welker, Adam Kloffenstein,
Cole Sands
Three years ago, the Akron Ryche farm
system ranked #1 in this Farm Report for the second year in a row. Last
year, they earned their first trip to the BDBL World Series.
Coincidence?
Since that 2018 Farm Report, Ronald
Acuna (older brother of Bryan, above) graduated to The Show, as did
Francisco Mejia, Keston Hiura, and Austin Riley (among others.)
Unfortunately for Akron Ryche farm system fans, there was no "second
wave" waiting to take their place. As a result, Akron ranked
#22 a year ago, and bolted up to #19 this year after their recent
addition of Ruiz. Also unfortunately for Akron farm system fans, Ruiz
was drafted at a salary of $2 million, so he technically isn't even
eligible for the farm club.
All three ranked prospects are
catchers. Kirk and Moreno are both catchers in
the Toronto Blue Jays system. Kirk made his MLB debut last year, and
Moreno is many years away from doing so. Of the unranked list, I've only
heard of one of them, and that is only because D.J. told me to draft him
and trade him to the Ryche.
#20
Buckingham Sovereigns
Ranked prospects: Deivi
Garcia (68), Oswald Peraza (92), Luis Medina (128)
Unranked prospects: Kevin Alcantara, Antonio Cabello, Gilberto
Celestino, Maikol Escotto, Hudson Potts, Canaan Smith, Josh Stowers,
Nick Bitsko, Roansy Contreras, Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gomez, Osiel
Rodriguez, Alexander Vizcaino
Way back in 2016, when Tony Badger took
over this storied franchise, he selected someone named Wilkerman Garcia
(a Yankees shortstop) with his first pick of the farm draft. John Gill immediately followed
that pick by selecting Eloy Jimenez. Thus began the weirdest farm draft
strategy the BDBL has seen since the day when Tim Zigmund selected Mike
Tyson and Evander Holyfield back-to-back.
Badger has explained that he gets more
enjoyment from watching his own prospects develop in-person than he does
from watching them develop from a distance, which is why he selects
Yankees farmhands almost exclusively. Fair enough. We all enjoy
different aspects of this hobby.
Oddly enough, MLB.com did not think
highly enough of any of Buckingham's prospects to give them a ranking.
Garcia earned a #60 and #50 ranking from FanGraphs and Baseball America
(respectively), Peraza earned a #67 ranking from FG, and Medina snuck in
with a #97 ranking from the same outlet.
According to FanGraphs, Garcia, Peraza,
and Medina rank #2, #3, and #6 in a deep and talented Yankees farm.
Garcia has the stuff, but not the size (5'9"/163 lbs) to handle a
starting pitcher's workload. FanGraphs defines Peraza as a
"contact-oriented shortstop" and an "above-average defender." Medina
showed big improvements in the Puerto Rican winter league, and could be
a surprise impact player in '21.
#21
Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Ha-seong
Kim (80), Luis Matos (116)
Unranked prospects: Blaze Alexander, Alex Binelas, Pedro Leon,
Bubba Thompson, Clayton Beeter, Kris Bubic, Francisco Morales
This is the lowest ranking for the
Cleveland farm system since the dark days of 2009. Back then, Cleveland
owned the bottom-five of this report. In fact, they finished in the
bottom-five eight out of the first ten years of the Farm Report's
existence. Mike Stein traded for guys like Gleyber Torres and Nick
Senzel, and the Cleveland farm suddenly gained some long-awaited
prestige. But then those guys graduated to the big leagues and their
void was filled by the likes of Ha-seong Kim and Luis
Matos.
It is nearly impossible to know how
Kim's Korean League stats will translate to MLB. Shin-Soo Choo is the
only position player who has made that leap successfully so far. Recent
MLB history is filled with plenty of players (Jung-ho Kang, Hee-seop
Choi, etc.) who weren't able to transition as easily. At best, Kim will
be an above-average offensive utility infielder. At worst, Kim will be a
below-average offensive utility infielder.
Matos is in the same boat as Leon:
high-risk/high-upside teenage lottery tickets.
#22
Great Lakes Sphinx
Ranked prospects: Bobby
Dalbec (108), Ryan Weathers (114), Trevor Rogers (117)
Unranked prospects: Aramis Ademan, Jose Devers, Reivaj Garcia,
Greg Jones, Tucupita Marcano, Eddy Julio Martinez, Seth Corry, Brendon
Little
This is now the seventh year in
a row the Sphinx own a bottom-four
farm system. How is that even possible? Even if you weren't
trying, you'd think you'd stumble across a top prospect by accident
every now and then.
Tony Badger barely tries to build a farm system, and he manages to rank
higher than the Sphinx farm in most years! This is just pathetic.
Weathers wins the prize for earning the
highest ranking (#84) from any of our panel of experts. Dalbec earns the
prize for being the only Great Lakes prospect who made the top-100 (just
barely) from two out of the three experts. There isn't much to say about
any of these guys, nor is there much to say about the unranked group. As
depressing as that is, it's even more depressing that we still have two
more teams to go in this report!
#23
Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked prospects: Michael
Busch (98), Daniel Espino (123)
Unranked prospects: Henry Davis, Brenton Boyle, Mario Feliciano,
Justin Foscue, Christian Franklin, Sal Frelick, Liover Peguero, Luis
Frias, Brennan Malone, Alek Manoah, Andrew Painter, Masyn Winn
Busch and Espino were both first-round
draft picks in 2019. Busch would move quickly through the system if: a)
he played for a different MLB team, and b) he had a defensive position.
Espino throws very hard, but has yet to pitch a full season at any
level.
Davis, Frelick, and Painter are all
ranked among the top-twenty prospects in the 2021 MLB draft, although
it's early, and those rankings tend to move a lot in the six months
prior to Draft Day.
#24
Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Jhoan
Duran (108)
Unranked prospects: Micker Adolfo, Aaron Bracho, William
Contreras, Dillon Dingler, Elehuris Montero, Alexfri Planez, Aaron
Sabato, Austin Wells, Will Wilson, Logan Wyatt, Joey Cantillo, Jairo
Solis
At this point, it is a well-established
fact that I barely follow the game of baseball. It is no surprise, then,
that I have never heard of almost every player on the Bear Country farm.
It's to the point where I question where other people gather their scouting
information.
Duran was ranked #82 by FanGraphs. He's
tall (6'5") and throws hard (101 mph), but has a lot of work to do in
terms of command. I recall watching Adolfo hit from behind home plate
while seated next to Bob Sylvester at an Arizona spring training game.
Adolfo looks like he could hit the ball a mile if he ever makes contact
-- which is all too rare. He owns a career K% of nearly 40%!
Contreras is the younger brother of
Willson. Wells was another awful first-round pick by the Yankees last
year. And...that's about it. That's all I know. Sorry.
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