August, 2022

Chapter Four Recap

Players of the Chapter

The year was 2013. A fleet-footed young man with a bright future at North Carolina State University was selected in our midseason draft by the Salem Cowtippers with their first pick of the draft. His name: Trea Vance Turner. The following year, Turner was selected in the first round of the MLB draft. The rest, as they say, is history. After getting off to a brutal start to this 2022 BDBL season, Turner finally found second gear in Chapter Four, leading the Ozzie League with 30.1 runs created, and batting .393/.416/.636 with a league-leading 28 RBI's. He is our OL Hitter of the Chapter.

Side note: With their next eight picks in that 2013 midseason draft, the Cowtippers selected Alex Bregman, Derek Fisher, Erik Johnson, Jose Campos, Rafael Devers, Marten Gasparini, Aaron Nola, and Julio Urias. That's FIVE future BDBL all-stars in one draft! We may never see anything like that again!

Last winter, Chicago GM John Gill took a massive gamble on A.J. Pollock. Coming off an age-33 season in which he managed to play only 117 games, following back-to-back seasons of 86 or fewer games played, Gill decided to roll the dice with a $7.5 million Type H contract. Pollock is hitting only .236/.282/.352 in MLB so far this year, so that gamble looks pretty bad going forward. However, the EL Hitter of the Chapter earned his paycheck in Chapter Four, hitting .459/.506/.811 with 31.3 runs created.

In 2012, my oldest son, Ryan, took over the legendary franchise now known as the Darien Blue Wave. He lost a then-BDBL-record 120 games that year, which gave him the number one pick in the 2013 farm draft. Ryan selected six players in that draft, including Clint Frazier, Rafael Montero, Blake Snell, and -- with his sixth and final pick of that draft -- an 18-year-old Japanese player named Shohei Ohtani.

The following winter, Ryan dealt Ohtani (along with Anibal Sanchez) to the unholy alliance in Wyoming in exchange for five players. Before the draft ended that year, Wyoming then sent Ohtani packing to Charlotte for Mark Reynolds. In the winter prior to our 2016 season, Charlotte needed some salary cap space, so they traded Ohtani to the Salem Cowtippers (along with Ryan Zimmerman's unwanted salary) in exchange for the legendary Tuffy Gosewich. And that is how the Cowtippers acquired our OL Pitcher of the Chapter. Ohtani led the OL with a 1.88 ERA and 4-0 record in Chapter Four, holding opponents to a .185/.256/.284 batting line.

Pollock wasn't John Gill's only $7.5 million Type H gamble last winter. The other, Sean Manaea, has panned out slightly better in MLB for next season (110 IP, 4.25 ERA, 4.37 FIP.) Manaea went a perfect 5-0 last chapter, with a league-leading 2.41 ERA, and held opponents to a .193/.253/.281 batting line.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Benes Division Madness

We are now 65-percent of the way through the 2022 season and the Benes Division is still tied at the top. The Akron Ryche and Ravenswood Infidels have posted identical records in each of the four chapters we've played this season. This past chapter, they each went 16-8. Akron swept Lake Norman and Los Altos, while losing only one series to Bear Country. Ravenswood also swept Lake Norman, but split with Los Altos, and lost one series to Salem.

Akron has scored 37 more runs than Ravenswood this year, and has allowed 30 fewer runs on the season. Their runs differential of +156 is the second-highest margin in the BDBL (with Salem leading the pack at +248.) The Ryche own a Pythagorian difference of -4 thanks to a meager 14-12 record in one-run games. The Infidels have excelled (17-9) in that category.

Neither GM made a big move prior to the final trading deadline, so these will be the teams that will battle it out the rest of the way. They will, of course, play each other eight times over the next two chapters. Akron owns a 6-2 record in their first eight head-to-head match-ups, so this is Ravenswood's chance for some payback.

Story #2: Higuera's Battle Royale

The Buckingham Sovereigns managed to gain one game in the Higuera Division standings last chapter. They went 15-9 to Kansas' 14-10 despite outscoring their opponents by only four runs. Buckingham went a nearly-perfect 6-1 in one-run games, while the Law Dogs went a modest 4-2. That, it seems, made all the difference, since the Law Dogs outscored their opponents by a whopping 46 runs. (Granted, that runs differential was highly-skewed by two 14-1 blowouts.)

No team in the BDBL allowed fewer runs in Chapter Four than Kansas -- and it wasn't even close. Law Dogs pitchers allowed just 84 runs -- an average of only 3.5 per game. The next-lowest total of runs allowed belongs to the Bear Country Jamboree, who allowed 95 (an average of 4 runs per game.) They were the only two pitching staffs in the BDBL that allowed fewer than 100 runs last chapter.

Neither Buckingham nor Kansas made a move at the final trading deadline, so these are the two teams we will see down the stretch. Buckingham owns a two-game cushion in this division despite being outscored by 12 runs this season. Kansas appears to be a much better team on paper, but has been plagued by bad luck in one-run games. Those games do tend to even out over the long run, so don't be surprised if Kansas pulls ahead over the final two chapters.

Story #3: Niagara Creates Some Breathing Room

The Niagara Locks have held first place in the Wilkie Division since day one. In Chapter Four, they tripled their lead from two games to six, thanks to a 15-9 chapter and the collapse of their competition. The D.C. Memorials and South Carolina Sea Cats were tied for second place in this division one chapter ago, both only two game back. In Chapter Four, D.C. went just 11-13, and the 'Cats slumped to 10-14. They are now six and seven games behind, respectively.

Historically speaking, a six game lead after four chapters is practically a guarantee of a division title. If that happens, it would be the first division championship in Mike Ranney's 12-year BDBL career, and the first for this franchise since 2007. This race isn't over yet, but the fat lady is clearing her throat.

Story #4: Chicago Dominates

The Chicago Black Sox led the BDBL with 19 wins in Chapter Four, and tied with the Cowtippers for the largest runs differential (+72). Chicago scored a whopping 176 runs (7.3 per game) while allowing only 104 (4.3/game.) They owned both the Hitter (A.J. Pollock) and Pitcher (Sean Manaea) of the Chapter.

Unfortunately for Black Sox fans, those Charlotte Mustangs just keep winning. Charlotte went 15-9 in Chapter Four, which means Chicago only gained four games in the standings, leaving them nine games behind.

The good news is that Chicago leap-frogged over the Myrtle Beach Hitmen last chapter, as the Hitmen went just 10-14 and fell 11 games behind. Myrtle Beach's pitching completely fell apart last chapter. They entered the chapter with a team ERA of 3.96. Last chapter, that figure blew up to 5.44. Christian Javier and Alex Cobb started six games in Chapter Four and allowed 27 runs combined -- a combined ERA of 8.88.

The Black Sox played .500 ball through the first half of this season. If they play .500 over the final two chapters, Myrtle Beach would need to go 30-26 (.534) to tie for the EL wildcard. Given that the Hitmen have played .548 baseball this year, this seems plausible. However, those aren't the only two teams vying for that wildcard. The Kansas Law Dogs (.548) are right there in the thick of it as well. Should Buckingham stumble down the stretch, they could contend for that wildcard as well.

Story #5: BDBL Weekend(?)

What constitutes an official BDBL Weekend? If two BDBL members get together to watch a ballgame, is that a BDBL Weekend? How about three? How about four, but one of them is no longer an active member? What if one of those members didn't even meet with two of the others? The BDBL rulebook, oddly enough, does not address these questions at all. It is clearly an area we need to address in the coming months.

Last weekend, I met with BDBL legend Billy T. Baseball III, one of our founding members, and BDBL hanger-on Matt Morin, in Tampa/St. Pete on a Friday evening. We wolfed down some tasty burgers and wings at a bar around the corner from the ballpark, took in a few innings of a game between the hometown Rays and visiting Ind-- err, "Guardians," and then moved to the Budweiser section for some Friday night $5 beer specials. Afterward, we spent a few hours at Ferg's, which is a huge sports bar within walking distance of the ballpark.

The following day, I met Ian Hartner, Tony Chamra, and two of their friends, at our seats along the third base line. At some point during the game, we were joined by two random guys who sat next to me in the open seats left by Billy and Matt. One of them turned out to be the cousin of that night's starting shortstop, Taylor Walls.

After the game, I introduced the guys to Ferg's. We opted for the air-conditioned section, which was probably a good call. We shared some nachos, wings, and other unhealthy food. There was no discussion of expanding the farm system, so I'm not sure that this qualified as a BDBL Weekend at all.

Story #6: Midseason Draft

The midseason BDBL draft, which was pushed back to Chapter Five by a league vote last year, is always a fun and exciting time. Any draft, really, gets the juices flowing. This year's was no exception. In fact, this may be the first year I can remember where so many top-100 prospects, MLB first-round draft picks, and projected first-rounders for next season were available. In most years, those bones are picked clean by this point in the season. In alphabetic order, here are some of the "winners" I noted from this draft:

• The Akron Ryche picked up two players who are having breakthrough minor league seasons. Kyle Manzardo, Tampa Bay's second round pick in '21, is off to a .326/.429/.633 start at the High-A level, with 17 home runs and a sparkling 42/46 BB/K ratio. Endy Rodriguez, a catcher in the Pirates system who was involved in the Joe Musgrove deal, is hitting .305/.395/.549 this season, with 16 homers in only 315 at-bats at the High-A level. This comes on the heels of a breakout 2021 season, in which he hit .294/.380/.512 with 15 homers in 377 AB's. Both of these guys look legit.
• Felix Bautista (44+ IP, 1.81 ERA, 60 K) has been one of the best relievers in baseball this year. John Gill somehow managed to nab him with the 19th pick in the draft. He then added three players who were just selected within the first 21 picks of the MLB draft, plus the first player selected in the second round.
• I have no idea who those other two guys are that were picked by Mike Stein in this draft, but his first pick, Gavin Stone, is one of the best pitchers in minor league baseball this year. He posted a 1.44 ERA in 25 innings at High-A, was promoted to Double-A, and has proceeded to post an even lower ERA (1.40) in 64+ innings at that level. His career numbers: 180 IP, 155 H, 8 HR, 57 BB, 255 K, 2.60 ERA. He is currently ranked by Baseball America as the #55 prospect in the game.
• The highest-ranked available player on that BA updated top prospects list, at number 15, is Ezequiel Tovar. Unfortunately, he fell all the way to #7 in this draft, which means he is now a member of the deplorable Darien Blue Wave. Thanks a lot, guys.
• Clocking in at #33 on that BA list is a left-handed fireballer by the name of Ricky Tiedemann. He instantly became the top prospect in the Peaks organization the moment he was selected. Just one year out of high school, he is off to a crazy-good start in pro ball: 67+ IP, 34 H, 3 HR, 25 BB, 103 K, 2.13 ERA. With his final pick in the draft, Greg Newgard acquired the Hispanic Titanic, Ivan Melendez, who posted video game numbers (315 PA, .387/.508/.863, 32 HR) with Texas U. this year.
• We can always count on Team Sylvester to have a good farm draft, and this one is no exception. Jackson Chourio has had a breakthrough year, earning accolades from scouts and pundits alike, since the beginning of this season. He hit out of his mind at the Low-A level -- .324/.373/.600, with 23 doubles and 12 homers -- before a promotion to High-A (where he has continued to rake.) Folks, this kid just turned 18 years old in March! BA ranks him as the 18th-best prospect in the game. Speaking of video game numbers, Highland's second pick, Esteury Ruiz, somehow managed to swipe 60 bases before he was promoted to the big leagues.
• Ravenswood GM Brian Potraka had himself a draft. He started by nabbing BA's #22 prospect, Brayan Bello, arguably the best pitcher available in this draft. He then added Zach Neto (the #13 overall pick in the MLB draft) and Drew Gilbert (#28) -- two athletic prospects with high upside, who should move quickly up the ladder.
• Your Salem Cowtippers had the dead-last pick in this draft, but managed to nab the best pitcher in college baseball (Chase Dollander), the best international prospect in the Class of '23 (Ethan Salas), two of the projected top-10 picks in the '23 draft (Wyatt Langford and Enrique Bradfield), and a key piece for the playoffs (Andy Ibanez.)