clearpix.gif (43 bytes)
clearpix.gif (43 bytes)
Big Daddy Baseball League

www.bigdaddybaseball.com

O F F I C I A L   S I T E   O F   T H E   B I G   D A D D Y   B A S E B A L L   L E A G U E
slant.gif (102 bytes) From the Desk of the Commish

Commish

clearpix.gif (43 bytes)

June, 2022

Chapter Three Recap

Players of the Chapter

The Myrtle Beach Hitmen are the feel-good story of 2022. After taking over this franchise from the clueless Doyle administration, Team Gill has spent the past five years wallowing in misery. Four last-place finishes, four seasons of 100+ losses, an average of 112 losses per season, and a BDBL-record 128 losses in 2020. Thankfully, all of that has changed in a big way this year. Halfway into this season, the Hitmen own a 47-33 record, good for second place in the Hrbek Division, and four games ahead of the next-best team in the EL wildcard race. Their $15 million investment from last winter, Jose Ramirez, has been a big part of their success. Our EL Hitter of the Chapter hit .357/.443/.745 in Chapter Three, with 9 home runs and 33 runs created.

The Akron Ryche continued to steamroll over the competition in Chapter Three, posting the best record (15-9) in the Ozzie League, and taking a one game lead over the Ravenswood Infidels in the airtight Benes Division race. Homegrown talent Josh Bell, who was acquired in trade by D.J. Shepard way back in 2013, led the OL in batting (.387), OBP (.478), slugging (.720), and runs created (26.5). In the final year of a four-year contract, Bell has quietly put together an impressive BDBL career. In four full seasons prior to this year, he has posted a career line of .273/.360/.500 with an average of 29 homers per year.

Several pitchers available in last winter's auction fit the same general description: early-30's, mixed recent track record of success, limited usage in 2022, and fairly decent odds of MLB '22 success. Each and every one of those pitchers ended up fetching a Type H salary, including our EL Pitcher of the Chapter, Sonny Gray. Myrtle Beach's ace went 3-1 in Chapter Three, with a 2.33 ERA (second only to South Carolina's German Marquez), and a .154/.238/.396 opponents line.

The Bear Country Jamboree made huge strides in their division race in Chapter Three, opening up a four-game lead over the Blacksburg Beamers with a 14-10 chapter. One major reason for their success was the performance of OL PoC Dylan Cease, who posted a sparkling 1.82 ERA on the chapter, and held opponents to a microscopic .109/.204/.218 batting line. Cease was involved in a pair of trades during the winter of 2019. The Chicago Black Sox acquired him from Los Altos in exchange for Seth Lugo and Evan White. Chicago GM John Gill then flipped Cease to Bear Country, along with two others, in exchange for Aroldis Chapman and Wilsson Contreras. I'd say all three teams won those trades.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Interleague Play

Does good pitching beat good hitting? Or vice versa? At the halfway point of this season, there is a 26-point difference in OPS between the Ozzie and Eck Leagues, with the EL owning that advantage. The EL has scored 285 more runs (6.4%) than the OL. The OL's ERA is 4.28 compared to the EL's 4.63 league ERA.

Interleague play presents a unstoppable-force-vs.-immovable-object scenario. How did that turn out?

Year OL W EL W OL W Pct.
2009 86 106 .448
2010 91 101 .474
2011 93 99 .484
2012 81 111 .422
2013 82 110 .427
2014 88 104 .458
2015 93 99 .484
2016 104 88 .542
2017 94 98 .490
2018 97 95 .505
2019 97 95 .505
2020 92 100 .479
2021 93 99 .484
2022 98 94 .510
  1,289 1,399 .480

This time, at least, it appears as though pitching has won. The Ozzie League has now won three of the past five seasons in interleague play, and four of the past seven -- all after losing the first seven contests (dating back as far as my record-keeping goes, at least.)

Ozzie rules!

Story #2: The Higgy Heats Up

In late April, the Law Dogs were sporting a sub-.500 record and GM Chris Luhning announced on the Selling forum that Jacob deGrom and several other bullpen arms were up for grabs. Over the next 40 days, the 'Dogs posted the best record (16-8) in the BDBL in Chapter Three, and moved from third-place (five games behind) in the Higuera Division to just one game behind the Buckingham Sovereigns. Suddenly, Luhning is now actively adding some pieces to the Kansas puzzle for the final stretch run. Funny how quickly things can change in the BDBL!

The Sovereigns lead the division despite being outscored by their opponents (-16). Their success this season is a function of their remarkable 14-7 record in one-run games, which is topped only by Charlotte's ridiculous 16-2 record in that category. Neither the Sovereigns nor the Law Dogs are scoring a ton of runs this season. They rank eighth and ninth, respectively, in runs scored in the EL. Both teams own an OPS that is almost exactly the league's average.

The big difference between the two teams has been on the pitching side. Kansas owns a 4.24 team ERA (good for fourth in the EL), while Buckingham owns an eighth-ranked team ERA of 4.94. The Kansas pitching staff is almost entirely-dependent on its bullpen. Three members of that 'pen -- Josh Staumont, Jacob deGrom, and Aaron Cimber -- own a combined ERA of 1.91 in 122+ innings.

Buckingham's pitching staff is mostly a hot mess. Of the ten pitchers who have pitched 30 or more innings this season, half of them own an ERA north of 5.00. The lone shining star on the staff is the starting pitcher for the EL in the all-star game, Charlie Morton. Morton, Tony Badger's $9 million investment from 2021, shares the EL lead with 10 wins, and owns a 3.89 ERA in 111 innings. Buckingham also owns the league leader in saves, Ryan Pressly, who was picked up in this past winter's auction at $6 million.

Kansas has just added two more bats -- Mike Yastrzemski and Akil Baddoo -- to the mix, which could be just enough to tip them over the top. The Law Dogs trail in the EL wildcard race by four games. If Myrtle Beach keeps up their winning pace, we may see Kansas or Buckingham watching the postseason from the sideline.

Story #3: Battle for the Benes

While the Higuera Division race could decide which contender makes the playoffs and which does not, it seems likely that the loser of the Benes Division race will make the postseason as the wildcard team. Currently, the Ravenswood Infidels own a three-game lead over the Las Vegas Flamingos in that race, with the Blacksburg Beamers trailing close behind at five games back.

The Benes is the only division in the league that includes two .600 ballclubs, and the only one with three teams owning a .560+ winning percentage. At the moment, Akron leads the division by just one game over Ravenswood. This, despite the fact that they have outscored their opponents by more runs (+131) than every other team in the league aside from Salem (+176).

At this point, it seems clear that Akron is playing beneath their potential. Their Pythagorean difference of (-5) is the lowest in the league. They are scoring more runs than any other team in the OL other than Salem. They own the best ERA (3.25) in the entire BDBL (although Salem has allowed nine fewer runs overall.) They own the third-lowest opponents OPS in the league (behind Salem and Bear Country.) All of the above is true despite the fact that Brandon Woodruff is just 3-6 on the season, with a middling 4.16 ERA.

Nearly all of the hitters on the Akron roster are over-performing compared to their MLB numbers. Out of the eleven hitters with 100+ PA's on the season, eight of them own a BDBL OPS that is higher than their MLB OPS (with Austin Riley barely missing the cutoff at .880 vs. .898). Edmundo Sosa, Victor Reyes, Harrison Bader, Francisco Mejia, and Tommy Pham all own a BDBL OPS that is more than 100 points higher!

Ravenswood's hitters, in contrast, are mostly under-performing. Of the ten Infidels batters with 100+ PA's, five of them own a lower BDBL OPS than their MLB figure. Cedric Mullins, one of only two Ravenswood all-star representatives, owns a BDBL OPS that is more than 100 points lower (.769) than his MLB OPS (.878).

While the eyes of the BDBL punditry are focused on Akron and Ravenswood, the Las Vegas Flamingos have quietly snuck into the picture. After a 12-16 start to the season, the pink birds have gone 33-19 (.635) since then. That is the best record in the division, two wins better than Akron, over the last two chapters. In fact, over that time, Vegas is tied with Salem, Buckingham, Myrtle Beach, and Charlotte for the best record in the BDBL.

Story #4: How 'Bout Them Hitmen?

I have already mentioned above the ignominious history of the Myrtle Beach Hitmen franchise. I also mentioned above that the Hitmen are tied with five other BDBL teams with the best record in the BDBL since the start of Chapter Two. This team, however, deserves a story of its own.

Not only has Myrtle Beach tied the Charlotte Mustangs with the best record (33-19) in the division during the last two chapters, but they have outscored their opponents by more runs (+63) than any other team in the Eck League. They have scored more runs than every other EL team except South Carolina (who have scored only two more.)

For the first time since the Gill brothers took over this franchise, a Myrtle Beach Hitman (Ketel Marte) will be starting in the all-star game. Two more Hitmen (Sonny Gray and Robbie Ray) will participate in that game as well. During the five previous seasons, Jose Ramirez (last year) was this franchise's only representative in the midsummer classic.

The Hitmen owned the #1-ranked farm system in the BDBL three years in a row, from 2019 to 2021. Andrew Vaughn (.296/.389/.582), Dylan Carlson (.249/.321/.420), and Tarik Skubal (5-1, 2.87 ERA in 34+ IP) are all products of that stellar farm system. The bulk of this team's production, however, has come from the veterans they purchased at the auction: Marte (.373/.425/.601), Gray (5-4, 3.53 ERA), Ray (6-5, 3.38), and Ramirez (.257/.320/.521).

The Charlotte Mustangs own the second-best record in the BDBL, with only three fewer wins than the Salem Cowtippers. They own a seemingly-comfortable six-game lead over Myrtle Beach in the Hrbek Division. It seems as though they are poised to cruise into the postseason. But are they? In many ways, Charlotte's performance looks like a mirage. They have outscored their opponents by 78 runs, which is barely higher than Myrtle Beach's +72 differential. The Mustangs own a crazy 32-8 record at home, but are barely playing .500 (21-19) on the road. Their +5 Pythagorean difference is second only to Buckingham's +6. They are 16-2 in one-run games and 10-2 in extra innings, which seems...unsustainable.

Call me crazy, but I think there is more than enough time for Myrtle Beach to close this gap.

Story #5: Blacksburg Beamers Bumble Badly

The Bear Country Jamboree went a respectable 14-10 in Chapter Three despite being outscored by eight runs. Normally, this wouldn't be cause for much celebration, but the Blacksburg Beamers, who were hot on their tails through the first two chapters, slipped up big-time last chapter. They went just 10-14, which drops them to four games back in the division race. One chapter ago, the Beamers and Jamboree were tied atop the division.

What on earth happened? Well, two weird things happened to the Beamers last chapter. Their pitching staff allowed the same exact OPS (.687) last chapter as they did during the first two chapters. However, they allowed a lot more runs (4.8 runs per game in Chapter Three vs. 4.0 in Chapters 1-2.) How on earth did they manage that? By walking a crap-ton of batters.

The Beamers staff averaged 2.9 walks per nine in Chapters One and Two. Last chapter, that figure ballooned to 4.5. More walks equals more base runners, which equals more runs crossing the plate. Ten Blacksburg pitchers saw a strange increase in walk rate last chapter. Steve Cishek's BB/9 leaped from 6.8 to 13.5 -- an increase of 6.7! Joe Musgrove (+4.0), Clay Holmes (+2.6), Jhoulys Chacin (+2.5), Erik Fedde (+1.9), Kevin Gausman (+1.8), Andrew Kittredge (+1.5), and Taylor Hearn (+1.1) also saw massive increases in their walk rates last chapter.

Another oddity is that Blacksburg's potent offense suddenly stopped hitting. They posted an .809 team OPS in Chapters One and Two, but that figure fell to just .752 last chapter. The entire drop in team OPS can be attributed to just two players. Matt Olson (-234) and J.P. Crawford (-203) both saw an OPS drop of more than 200 points last chapter. Olson's overall OPS almost perfectly matches his MLB OPS. Crawford, however, had been playing well over his head for two chapters. Olson's performance, then, is likely to rebound, whereas Crawford's feels like a correction.

There is still plenty of time for the Beamers to regroup, and plenty of time for the Jamboree to finally catch up with their Pythagorean record. A lot can happen in 80 games.

Story #6: The Whacky Wilkie

Three Wilkie Division teams are playing winning baseball this season. The Niagara Locks currently cling to a two-game lead over the D.C. Memorials and South Carolina Sea Cats. These three teams are as evenly-matched as it gets. They are separated by only 30 runs scored and 41 runs allowed. The Sea Cats currently lead the Eck League with 428 runs scored. The Locks lead the EL with an .800 team OPS. The Memorials own the best team ERA (4.05) of the three.

Of the three teams, it looks like D.C. is suffering the most from bad luck. They have yet to win a single come-from-behind game this year -- the only team in the entire BDBL (including the Monsters!) that has yet to do so. They are an abysmal 6-17 in one-run games and 1-7 in extra innings. These bad luck quirks usually have a way of balancing out over time.

From a GM standpoint, none of the three contenders appears to be in a hurry to add more key pieces for the second half. Niagara GM Mike Ranney added a couple of inning-eaters last chapter. D.C.'s GM, Adam Miner, has made only minor trades to date. South Carolina GM Tony DeCastro is legendary for his inactivity. Not only hasn't he made a trade since Chapter One, but he hasn't even picked up a free agent all season!

This division is completely up-for-grabs. The question is: does anyone want it?