June, 2022
Chapter
Three Recap
Players of the Chapter
The Myrtle Beach Hitmen are the
feel-good story of 2022. After taking over this franchise from the
clueless Doyle administration, Team Gill has spent the past five years
wallowing in misery. Four last-place finishes, four seasons of 100+
losses, an average of 112 losses per season, and a BDBL-record 128
losses in 2020. Thankfully, all of that has changed in a big way this
year. Halfway into this season, the Hitmen own a 47-33 record, good for
second place in the Hrbek Division, and four games ahead of the
next-best team in the EL wildcard race. Their $15 million investment
from last winter, Jose Ramirez, has been a big part of their success.
Our EL Hitter of the Chapter hit .357/.443/.745 in Chapter Three, with 9
home runs and 33 runs created.
The Akron Ryche continued to steamroll
over the competition in Chapter Three, posting the best record (15-9) in
the Ozzie League, and taking a one game lead over the Ravenswood
Infidels in the airtight Benes Division race. Homegrown talent Josh
Bell, who was acquired in trade by D.J. Shepard way back in 2013, led
the OL in batting (.387), OBP (.478), slugging (.720), and runs created
(26.5). In the final year of a four-year contract, Bell has quietly put
together an impressive BDBL career. In four full seasons prior to this
year, he has posted a career line of .273/.360/.500 with an average of
29 homers per year.
Several pitchers available in last
winter's auction fit the same general description: early-30's, mixed
recent track record of success, limited usage in 2022, and fairly decent
odds of MLB '22 success. Each and every one of those pitchers ended up
fetching a Type H salary, including our EL Pitcher of the Chapter, Sonny
Gray. Myrtle Beach's ace went 3-1 in Chapter Three, with a 2.33 ERA
(second only to South Carolina's German Marquez), and a .154/.238/.396
opponents line.
The Bear Country Jamboree made huge
strides in their division race in Chapter Three, opening up a four-game
lead over the Blacksburg Beamers with a 14-10 chapter. One major reason
for their success was the performance of OL PoC Dylan Cease, who posted
a sparkling 1.82 ERA on the chapter, and held opponents to a microscopic
.109/.204/.218 batting line. Cease was involved in a pair of trades
during the winter of 2019. The Chicago Black Sox acquired him from Los
Altos in exchange for Seth Lugo and Evan White. Chicago GM John Gill
then flipped Cease to Bear Country, along with two others, in exchange
for Aroldis Chapman and Wilsson Contreras. I'd say all three teams won
those trades.
Top Stories of the
Chapter
Story #1: Interleague Play
Does good pitching beat good hitting?
Or vice versa? At the halfway point of this season, there is a 26-point
difference in OPS between the Ozzie and Eck Leagues, with the EL owning
that advantage. The EL has scored 285 more runs (6.4%) than the OL. The
OL's ERA is 4.28 compared to the EL's 4.63 league ERA.
Interleague play presents a
unstoppable-force-vs.-immovable-object scenario. How did that turn out?
Year |
OL W |
EL W |
OL W Pct. |
2009 |
86 |
106 |
.448 |
2010 |
91 |
101 |
.474 |
2011 |
93 |
99 |
.484 |
2012 |
81 |
111 |
.422 |
2013 |
82 |
110 |
.427 |
2014 |
88 |
104 |
.458 |
2015 |
93 |
99 |
.484 |
2016 |
104 |
88 |
.542 |
2017 |
94 |
98 |
.490 |
2018 |
97 |
95 |
.505 |
2019 |
97 |
95 |
.505 |
2020 |
92 |
100 |
.479 |
2021 |
93 |
99 |
.484 |
2022 |
98 |
94 |
.510 |
|
1,289 |
1,399 |
.480 |
This time, at least, it appears as
though pitching has won. The Ozzie League has now won three of the past
five seasons in interleague play, and four of the past seven -- all
after losing the first seven contests (dating back as far as my
record-keeping goes, at least.)
Ozzie rules!
Story #2: The Higgy Heats Up
In late April, the Law Dogs were
sporting a sub-.500 record and GM Chris Luhning announced on the Selling
forum that Jacob deGrom and several other bullpen arms were up for
grabs. Over the next 40 days, the 'Dogs posted the best record (16-8) in
the BDBL in Chapter Three, and moved from third-place (five games
behind) in the Higuera Division to just one game behind the Buckingham
Sovereigns. Suddenly, Luhning is now actively adding some pieces to the
Kansas puzzle for the final stretch run. Funny how quickly things can
change in the BDBL!
The Sovereigns lead the division
despite being outscored by their opponents (-16). Their success this
season is a function of their remarkable 14-7 record in one-run games,
which is topped only by Charlotte's ridiculous 16-2 record in that
category. Neither the Sovereigns nor the Law Dogs are scoring a ton of
runs this season. They rank eighth and ninth, respectively, in runs
scored in the EL. Both teams own an OPS that is almost exactly the
league's average.
The big difference between the two
teams has been on the pitching side. Kansas owns a 4.24 team ERA (good
for fourth in the EL), while Buckingham owns an eighth-ranked team ERA
of 4.94. The Kansas pitching staff is almost entirely-dependent on its
bullpen. Three members of that 'pen -- Josh Staumont, Jacob deGrom, and
Aaron Cimber -- own a combined ERA of 1.91 in 122+ innings.
Buckingham's pitching staff is mostly a
hot mess. Of the ten pitchers who have pitched 30 or more innings this
season, half of them own an ERA north of 5.00. The lone shining star on
the staff is the starting pitcher for the EL in the all-star game,
Charlie Morton. Morton, Tony Badger's $9 million investment from 2021,
shares the EL lead with 10 wins, and owns a 3.89 ERA in 111 innings.
Buckingham also owns the league leader in saves, Ryan Pressly, who was
picked up in this past winter's auction at $6 million.
Kansas has just added two more bats --
Mike Yastrzemski and Akil Baddoo -- to the mix, which could be just
enough to tip them over the top. The Law Dogs trail in the EL wildcard
race by four games. If Myrtle Beach keeps up their winning pace, we may
see Kansas or Buckingham watching the postseason from the sideline.
Story #3: Battle for the Benes
While the Higuera Division race could
decide which contender makes the playoffs and which does not, it seems
likely that the loser of the Benes Division race will make the
postseason as the wildcard team. Currently, the Ravenswood Infidels own
a three-game lead over the Las Vegas Flamingos in that race, with the
Blacksburg Beamers trailing close behind at five games back.
The Benes is the only division in the
league that includes two .600 ballclubs, and the only one with three
teams owning a .560+ winning percentage. At the moment, Akron leads the
division by just one game over Ravenswood. This, despite the fact that
they have outscored their opponents by more runs (+131) than every other
team in the league aside from Salem (+176).
At this point, it seems clear that
Akron is playing beneath their potential. Their Pythagorean difference
of (-5) is the lowest in the league. They are scoring more runs than any
other team in the OL other than Salem. They own the best ERA (3.25) in
the entire BDBL (although Salem has allowed nine fewer runs overall.)
They own the third-lowest opponents OPS in the league (behind Salem and
Bear Country.) All of the above is true despite the fact that Brandon
Woodruff is just 3-6 on the season, with a middling 4.16 ERA.
Nearly all of the hitters on the Akron
roster are over-performing compared to their MLB numbers. Out of the
eleven hitters with 100+ PA's on the season, eight of them own a BDBL
OPS that is higher than their MLB OPS (with Austin Riley barely missing
the cutoff at .880 vs. .898). Edmundo Sosa, Victor Reyes, Harrison
Bader, Francisco Mejia, and Tommy Pham all own a BDBL OPS that is more
than 100 points higher!
Ravenswood's hitters, in contrast, are
mostly under-performing. Of the ten Infidels batters with 100+ PA's,
five of them own a lower BDBL OPS than their MLB figure. Cedric Mullins,
one of only two Ravenswood all-star representatives, owns a BDBL OPS
that is more than 100 points lower (.769) than his MLB OPS (.878).
While the eyes of the BDBL punditry are
focused on Akron and Ravenswood, the Las Vegas Flamingos have quietly
snuck into the picture. After a 12-16 start to the season, the pink
birds have gone 33-19 (.635) since then. That is the best record in the
division, two wins better than Akron, over the last two chapters. In
fact, over that time, Vegas is tied with Salem, Buckingham, Myrtle
Beach, and Charlotte for the best record in the BDBL.
Story #4: How 'Bout Them Hitmen?
I have already mentioned above the
ignominious history of the Myrtle Beach Hitmen franchise. I also
mentioned above that the Hitmen are tied with five other BDBL teams with
the best record in the BDBL since the start of Chapter Two. This team,
however, deserves a story of its own.
Not only has Myrtle Beach tied the
Charlotte Mustangs with the best record (33-19) in the division during
the last two chapters, but they have outscored their opponents by more
runs (+63) than any other team in the Eck League. They have scored more
runs than every other EL team except South Carolina (who have scored
only two more.)
For the first time since the Gill
brothers took over this franchise, a Myrtle Beach Hitman (Ketel Marte)
will be starting in the all-star game. Two more Hitmen (Sonny Gray and
Robbie Ray) will participate in that game as well. During the five
previous seasons, Jose Ramirez (last year) was this franchise's only
representative in the midsummer classic.
The Hitmen owned the #1-ranked farm
system in the BDBL three years in a row, from 2019 to 2021. Andrew
Vaughn (.296/.389/.582), Dylan Carlson (.249/.321/.420), and Tarik
Skubal (5-1, 2.87 ERA in 34+ IP) are all products of that stellar farm
system. The bulk of this team's production, however, has come from the
veterans they purchased at the auction: Marte (.373/.425/.601), Gray
(5-4, 3.53 ERA), Ray (6-5, 3.38), and Ramirez (.257/.320/.521).
The Charlotte Mustangs own the
second-best record in the BDBL, with only three fewer wins than the
Salem Cowtippers. They own a seemingly-comfortable six-game lead over
Myrtle Beach in the Hrbek Division. It seems as though they are poised
to cruise into the postseason. But are they? In many ways, Charlotte's
performance looks like a mirage. They have outscored their opponents by
78 runs, which is barely higher than Myrtle Beach's +72 differential.
The Mustangs own a crazy 32-8 record at home, but are barely playing
.500 (21-19) on the road. Their +5 Pythagorean difference is second only
to Buckingham's +6. They are 16-2 in one-run games and 10-2 in extra
innings, which seems...unsustainable.
Call me crazy, but I think there is
more than enough time for Myrtle Beach to close this gap.
Story #5: Blacksburg Beamers Bumble Badly
The Bear Country Jamboree went a
respectable 14-10 in Chapter Three despite being outscored by eight
runs. Normally, this wouldn't be cause for much celebration, but the
Blacksburg Beamers, who were hot on their tails through the first two
chapters, slipped up big-time last chapter. They went just 10-14, which
drops them to four games back in the division race. One chapter ago, the
Beamers and Jamboree were tied atop the division.
What on earth happened? Well, two weird
things happened to the Beamers last chapter. Their pitching staff
allowed the same exact OPS (.687) last chapter as they did during the
first two chapters. However, they allowed a lot more runs (4.8 runs per
game in Chapter Three vs. 4.0 in Chapters 1-2.) How on earth did they
manage that? By walking a crap-ton of batters.
The Beamers staff averaged 2.9 walks
per nine in Chapters One and Two. Last chapter, that figure ballooned to
4.5. More walks equals more base runners, which equals more runs
crossing the plate. Ten Blacksburg pitchers saw a strange increase in
walk rate last chapter. Steve Cishek's BB/9 leaped from 6.8 to 13.5 --
an increase of 6.7! Joe Musgrove (+4.0), Clay Holmes (+2.6), Jhoulys
Chacin (+2.5), Erik Fedde (+1.9), Kevin Gausman (+1.8), Andrew Kittredge
(+1.5), and Taylor Hearn (+1.1) also saw massive increases in their walk
rates last chapter.
Another oddity is that Blacksburg's
potent offense suddenly stopped hitting. They posted an .809 team OPS in
Chapters One and Two, but that figure fell to just .752 last chapter.
The entire drop in team OPS can be attributed to just two players. Matt
Olson (-234) and J.P. Crawford (-203) both saw an OPS drop of more than
200 points last chapter. Olson's overall OPS almost perfectly matches
his MLB OPS. Crawford, however, had been playing well over his head for
two chapters. Olson's performance, then, is likely to rebound, whereas
Crawford's feels like a correction.
There is still plenty of time for the
Beamers to regroup, and plenty of time for the Jamboree to finally catch
up with their Pythagorean record. A lot can happen in 80 games.
Story #6: The Whacky Wilkie
Three Wilkie Division teams are playing
winning baseball this season. The Niagara Locks currently cling to a
two-game lead over the D.C. Memorials and South Carolina Sea Cats. These
three teams are as evenly-matched as it gets. They are separated by only
30 runs scored and 41 runs allowed. The Sea Cats currently lead the Eck
League with 428 runs scored. The Locks lead the EL with an .800 team
OPS. The Memorials own the best team ERA (4.05) of the three.
Of the three teams, it looks like D.C.
is suffering the most from bad luck. They have yet to win a single
come-from-behind game this year -- the only team in the entire BDBL
(including the Monsters!) that has yet to do so. They are an abysmal
6-17 in one-run games and 1-7 in extra innings. These bad luck quirks
usually have a way of balancing out over time.
From a GM standpoint, none of the three
contenders appears to be in a hurry to add more key pieces for the
second half. Niagara GM Mike Ranney added a couple of inning-eaters last
chapter. D.C.'s GM, Adam Miner, has made only minor trades to date.
South Carolina GM Tony DeCastro is legendary for his inactivity. Not
only hasn't he made a trade since Chapter One, but he hasn't even picked
up a free agent all season!
This division is completely
up-for-grabs. The question is: does anyone want it?
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