February, 2023
2023
Season Preview
Welcome to Season #25! It's our silver
anniversary, and I forgot to bake a cake!
This is already shaping up to be an
exciting season. Thanks to realignment, we have several new natural
rivalries in the making, all involving personal, off-the-field,
connections. In the McGowan Division, Lee Scholtz will now battle for
the division title against his cousin-in-law, Tim Chubb. In the Griffin
Division, Matt Clemm will compete against not only his lifelong friend, Jeff
Paulson, but also his former co-worker, Bart Chinn.
The Higuera Division features not one,
but two, family rivalries between father-and-son Badger and the Brothers
Luhning. In the Wilkie Division, the Sylvester family will duke it out
with good friends Adam Miner and Joe Demski. And in the Hrbek Division,
we'll see the Gill family take on long-time pals Tony Chamra and Ian
Hartner.
This season is also unusually exciting
thanks to the preponderance of MONSTER starting rotations. We have seen
many fantastic rotations in the past, but never like this, and never so
many. In Los Altos, reigning NL Cy Young Sandy Alcantara joins fellow Cy
Young candidates Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer, and Luis Severino. South
Carolina GM Tony DeCastro went nuts in the auction, adding Justin
Verlander and Joe Musgrove to a rotation that already includes two
Cy-worthy arms in Zac Gallen and Julio Urias.
Akron owned the best starting rotation
in the league a year ago, and yet somehow managed to improve that
rotation this year, thanks to the breakout season by Nasty Nestor
Cortez. Cortez, along with the newly-acquired franchise pitcher Triston
McKenzie, join a familiar trio of Cy Young candidates: Gerrit Cole,
Corbin Burnes, and Brandon Woodruff.
Another reason to be psyched about this
coming season: expanded interleague play! We will now face every team in
the BDBL for the first time in our history. This will be especially
interesting given the stark differences between the Ozzie and Eck
Leagues this year. The OL has a league OPS of .737, a RC/27 of 4.7, and
a CERA of 3.02. The EL has a league OPS of .724, a RC/27 of 4.5, and a
CERA of 3.65. The EL once dominated interleague play, besting the OL
seven seasons in a row, from 2009-15. Since then, the OL has beaten the
EL four times in the past seven seasons. This year, I predict the OL
will top their all-time best interleague winning percentage of .542.
Finally, another reason to get stoked
about the 2023 season is the possible emergence of some fresh faces in the
postseason. Of the eight playoff teams I am predicting below, seven did
not participate in last year's Tournament of Randomness (TOR). Many of
those seven have not appeared in the postseason in a very long time. One
of the teams I've picked to win its division has never done so in 24
years! Another hasn't seen a division title since the 1990s!
(Granted, I only accurately predicted
four of last year's eight playoff teams. Honestly, I'm not sure why I
bother trying anymore.)
Oh, and one reason not to be excited
about this season: the designated hitter. 'Nuff said?
Jump to:
McGowan |
Benes |
Griffin | Higuera |
Wilkie
| Hrbek
Darien
Blue Wave
Owner: Lee Scholtz
2022 Record: 68-92 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Tony Gonsolin (.536), Michael
Kopech (.641), Logan Gilbert (.686), Alex Cobb (.665), George Kirby
(.693), Garrett Whitlock (.639), Matt Manning (.621)
Bullpen: Felix Bautista (.536), Andres Munoz (.523),
Jhoan Duran (.571), Scott Effross (.564), Penn Murfee (.570), Brooks
Raley (.542), Brusdar Graterol (.584), Bryan Abreu (.570), Tim Hill
(.629), Tanner Houck (.608), Adrian Morejon (.652)
Projected Lineup: Justin Turner (3B, .788), Mike
Trout (CF, .999), Yordan F'ing Alvarez (LF, 1.019), Anthony Rizzo (1B,
.817), Ryan Jeffers/Cal Raleigh (C, .909/.734), Will Myers/Jack Suwinski
(RF, .815/.794), Carlos Santana/Darick Hall (DH, .789/.865), Riley
Greene (CF, .682), Ha-Seong Kim (SS, .708), Thairo Estrada (2B, .722)
Strengths:
This bullpen is ridiculous. It is almost
as ridiculous as the Los Altos bullpen; that is how ridiculous it is.
Who is this team's closer? Take your pick from the eight -- count 'em,
eight -- closers with a sub-600 OPS! There are so many closers on
this team that some of those eight -- not to mention all of the others
with a sub-700 OPS -- will have to waste away on the reserve roster this
year.
Gonsolin is among the best starting
pitchers in this league, inning-for-inning. Unfortunately for Darien
fans, he only has
143 innings of usage this year. Similar usage limits plague the rest of
this rotation, but there are enough innings here to get by, and this
starting rotation is solid.
The lineup includes two of the best
hitters in the game in Trout and Alvarez. Only three players in MLB
posted an OPS of .999 or above last year, and the Blue Wave lineup
includes two of them. Darien's .813 OPS against lefties leads the entire
BDBL. Trout (1.058), Alvarez (.998), Jeffers (.909), and Rizzo (.893)
crush lefties. (Which is unfortunate, given that one of my best starters
is a lefty.)
Weaknesses:
The supporting cast for those two mashers
is very weak. Once you get past those two monsters, it's smooth sailing.
Raleigh can mash right-handers (24 HR in 285 AB), but that comes with a
very low on-base percentage of .276. The others in the lineup face
similar challenges getting on base. The bottom half of this lineup is
cobbled together with role players.
Greene (.656 vs. RH) could use a
platoon partner in center field. So could Kim (.681 vs. RH) and Estrada
(.671 vs. RH). In general, this lineup is much, much, weaker against
right-handers than southpaws. That weakness can (and should!) be easily-exploited.
Outlook:
This is going to be a great team someday
soon. Maybe even today. Kopech, Kirby, and Manning are only just
beginning to show what they can do in the big leagues. Riley Greene has
barely scratched the surface of his big league career. Alvarez still has
seven years left on his contract. This is Trout's final year with the
Blue Wave, but that also means Darien will have an extra $26.5 million to spend next winter, on
possibly the best auction class in league history.
This bullpen, combined with the front
half of this starting lineup, could carry this team to a division title.
If that should happen, it would be the first division title for this
franchise since...checking my notes...oh, yeah, EVER! This franchise's
last season above .500 happened way back in 2013 when my son, Ryan, ran
this team. That was one of only two above-.500 seasons for this
franchise in over twenty years. I'd say this franchise is long
overdue for another, no?
Prediction:
1st place. A division title seems like a fitting end to Mike Trout's
time in Darien. Trout helped the Wyoming Ridgebacks win a BDBL
championshp in 2014. He also carried the 2018 Buckingham Sovereigns to a
division title. (That was the year that Bobby Sylvester ran the table
and swept all twelve of his playoff games.) Sadly, those were the only
two postseason appearances for Trout, who is famous in real life for
never seeing the postseason despite his Hall of Fame career. He deserves
another chance, and he'll get one this year. I predict that it will be a brief
appearance, but it's better than nothing.
Florida
Mulligans
Owner: Mike Glander
2022 Record: 101-59 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Shohei Ohtani (.574), Framber
Valdez (.600), Luis Garcia (.678), Jon Gray (.663), Ranger Suarez
(.713), J.P. Sears (.716)
Bullpen: A.J. Minter (.556), David Bednar (.618), Buck
Farmer (.611), Kyle Nelson (.583), Carl Edwards (.652), Ryan Tepera
(.618)
Projected Lineup: Trea Turner (SS, .809), Garrett
Stubbs/Adley Rutschman (C, 1.179/.889), Rafael Devers (3B, .879), Shohei
Ohtani (DH, .875), Andrew Benintendi (LF, .772), Mark Canha (CF, .770),
David Villar/Alfonso Rivas (1B, .978/.684), Austin Slater/Aaron Hicks (RF,
.824/.644), Jonathan Schoop (2B, .561)
Strengths:
In any other season, the one-two punch of
Ohtani and Valdez would be the best in the BDBL. This season, that
one-two punch ranks third at best -- in the Ozzie League. The Framber
Valdez who pitched for the Cowtippers last season had no resemblance
whatsoever to the Framber Valdez who pitched for the Astros in 2021. It
remains to be seen whether that was only an anomaly or if this game
simply hates Framber Valdez.
Minter is a legitimate closer, backed
by solid, but unspectacular, setup men. The Florida lineup includes
three players who ranked among the top-21 in offensive WAR in MLB '22. Considering
the anemic state of offense in baseball, this lineup is
incredibly solid from one through six. Based on MLB '22 stats, the
Mulligans rank fifth in the BDBL in OPS (.751) and fourth in RC/27
(5.0). They own the second-best OBP in the league (behind Bear Country)
at .341.
Weaknesses:
The bottom-third of this lineup is a hot
mess. In fact, before I added those bottom three players to the lineup,
Florida ranked #1 in OPS and RC/27. Schoop, who is in this lineup
entirely because of his defense and full-time usage, barely hits better
than the average pitcher. Which means the Mulligans have not benefitted
at all from our new DH rule. In fact, Florida is the only team in the
league that has been penalized because of it, as we lose the extra
hitter in our lineup when Ohtani pitches.
Outlook:
I'm not sure what to make of this team at this point. The plan is to
play a chapter or two, see which direction the wind is blowing, and
adjust accordingly. The competition in this division is much stronger
than it was a year ago. The Peaks remain in rebuilding mode, but the
Blue Wave look like serious contenders and the Fightin's are no
pushovers. It looks like it will be a dog fight all the way.
Prediction:
2nd place. Unlike last year's squad, this new Florida version does not
look like a playoffs team. Even last year, with a roster chock-full of
superstars, we managed to struggle in the second half and finished with
a sub-.500 record in Chapter Six. For whatever reason,
under-performance, grave disappointment, and shattered expectations are
the hallmarks of this franchise. I don't expect that to change in 2023.
Philadelphia
Fightin's
Owner: Tim Chubb
2022 Record: (83-77, 3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Blake Snell (.635), Kevin Gausman
(.700), Mike Clevinger (.716), Justin Steele (.660)
Bullpen: Daniel Bard (.503), Anthony Bass (.569), Amir
Garrett (.572), Seranthony Dominguez (.596), Tyler Rogers (.682)
Projected Lineup: Luis Urias/Kolten Wong (2B,
.752/.845), Dansby Swanson (SS, .776), Will Smith (C, .807), Christian
Walker (1B, .804), J.D. Martinez (DH, .790), Giancarlo Stanton (LF,
.759), Mitch Haniger/Oscar Gonzalez (RF, .764/.807), Josh Rojas (3B,
.739), Max Kepler (CF, .666)
Strengths:
I did a double-take when I saw Bard's
numbers just now. I know that I hardly follow the game of baseball, but
when the hell did Daniel Bard become an ace reliever? The last I
checked, he had retired from the game -- or at least disappeared from
the radar. He now leads a Philly bullpen that is quite good. New guy Tim
Chubb spent a whopping $20 million in the auction to beef up this
starting rotation with Gausman, Snell, and Clevinger. All three will be
good contributors this season and decent risks going forward.
Weaknesses:
Snell (140), Steele (130), and Clevinger
(125) are all severely limited in usage. In fact, this pitching staff as
a whole has a serious usage issue. If you figure six innings per start
on average, you would need 960 innings just to get through this season.
As I type, the Fightin's are about 370 innings short.
The lineup has some problem areas as
well. Neither Stanton (.652) nor Christian Yelich (.694) can hit
lefties, but one of them will have to play left field, I assume. With
Martinez unranked at any defensive position, he clogs up the DH spot, so
one of those two will have to sit. Likewise, after the signing of
Swanson, who is only rated at shortstop, Elvis Andrus (827 vs. LH) will
have to sit unless he is played out of position. Kepler (677/662) is the
only viable center fielder, and he can't hit anyone.
Outlook: New owner, new division, new league. It is a fresh start for
the former Great Lakes Sphinx franchise. Tim Chubb spent an awful lot of
money this winter. He also spent it very wisely. Of the nine
players he signed in the auction, only three -- Swanson, Gausman, and
Snell -- were signed to Type-H deals. All of the other players signed (Kepler,
Haniger, Yelich, Stanton, Clevinger, Martinez) are coming off sub-par
MLB seasons, but could easily bounce back. If even one or two of those
players has a resurgence in MLB '23, then the Fightin's will greatly
benefit from it. And if they don't, there is zero risk involved. They
can simply be cut without penalty at the end of this season. It's a very
smart strategy.
As for this team's 2023 outlook, I
believe it will be a struggle, simply because of the usage issue in this
starting rotation. Unless Chubb sacrifices a crap-ton of his team's
future to trade for quality innings, those innings will have to be
filled with pitchers from the free agent scrap heap. The yet-to-be-named home ballpark of
the Fightin's is very friendly to home run hitters (121/119 splits.)
That is not good for sub-standard pitchers.
Prediction: 3rd place. I have a long history of poorly predicting how this
franchise will perform. Given that, you should expect the Fightin's to
win the BDBL championship this year. If they perform as I predict, for
the first time ever, expect a finish somewhere around .500.
Flagstaff
Peaks
Owners: Greg Newgard
2022 Record: 56-104 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Zach Davies (.722), Paul Blackburn
(.752), Dylan Bundy (.765), Zach Eflin (.681), Jordan Lyles (.784),
Eduardo Rodriguez (.720)
Bullpen: Connor Overton (.499), Dennis Santana (.637),
Hirokazu Sawamura (.664), Duane Underwood (.660), Yimi Garcia (.621),
Johan Oviedo (.653), Chase De Jong (.679), Nabil Crismatt (.650)
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts (RF, .873), Marcus
Semien (SS, .733), Ketel Marte (2B, .727), Bobby Dalbec/Wilmer Flores
(1B, .754/.711), Dylan Carlson/Austin Hays (CF, .845/.725), Nelson Cruz
(DH, .651), Orlando Arcia (3B, .733), Luke Maile/Victor Caratini (C,
.701/.692), Tyler Naquin (LF, .705)
Strengths:
Betts (983/832 splits) remains one of the
best players in the game as he heads into his thirties. He has three
more years remaining on his contract, which makes him attractive
trade bait. Unfortunately, he's franchised, so he can't be traded. Semien had an off year last year, but could also attract
some trade attention depending on how he bounces back this year. He has
one year remaining on his contract at $10.5 million.
Weaknesses: This is not a good pitching staff in any year, but especially
in this year of abundant pitching. Davies is the "ace" by default, but he would be a #5 starter for most teams in the BDBL.
Overton has great numbers (447/547 splits, and a 1.70 CERA), but is
limited to just 36 innings this year. Betts is the only above-average
hitter in this lineup.
Outlook: From league champions to last place. That is the story of the
2021 Peaks, through no fault of their current owner. Newgard
inherited a team that Jim Doyle had completely stripped of any talent
beyond the franchise player, Betts -- a player Doyle had inherited from
Anthony Peburn. We are now entering year two of this franchise's
rebuild, and it will be a long one.
That said, there are reasons for
optimism in the near future. The Kodai Senga Era will begin next year.
He could give this club an instant ace. Ricky Tiedemann is among the
best pitching prospects in the game, and he should arrive to the big
leagues shortly as well. I have Steven Matz and Eduardo Rodriguez
declared as bounce-back candidates in 2023. Put it all together and the
2024 Peaks rotation could be rock-solid.
On the offensive side, there isn't as
much room for optimism. However, this team will shed $9.6 million when
the contracts of Nelson Cruz and Wilmer Flores expire at the end of this
season. The 2024 free agent class will be among the strongest ever. With
a few slick trades and free agent signings, the Peaks could move back
into contention sooner than later.
Prediction: 4th place. Sorry, Hoss.
Akron Ryche
Owner: D.J. Shepard
2022 Record: 108-52 (1st place, BDBL champions)
Projected Rotation: Corbin Burnes (.602), Gerrit Cole
(.650), Nestor Cortes (.554), Triston McKenzie (.611), Brandon Woodruff
(640), Tyler Wells (.691)
Bullpen: John Schreiber (.577), Jose Alvarado (.585), David
Robertson (.589), Josh Hader (.714), Josh Winder (.780)
Projected Lineup: Ronald Acuna (RF, .764), Austin Riley
(3B, .878), Joey Meneses (LF, .930), Bryan Reynolds (CF, .807), Jose
Miranda/Vinne Pasquantino (1B, .821/.826), Andres Gimenez (SS, .837),
Jesse Winker/Chris Taylor (DH, .794/.706), Francisco Mejia/Keibert Ruiz
(C, .833/.700), Tommy Edman (2B, .725)
Strengths:
If you thought the Akron starting rotation
was ridiculous last year, wait until you get a load of this year's
version. It features the same cast of Cy Young-caliber characters (Burnes,
Cole, and Woodruff), but with two more Cy Young arms added to the
mix in Cortes and McKenzie. Cortes is arguably the best of the lot. Of
all MLB pitchers that tossed 150+ innings last year, only AL Cy Young
winner Justin Verlander (.497) owns a lower opponents OPS.
Acuna (.266/.351/.413) didn't exactly
have an Acuna-like year last year, but he's still above-average and has
more usage in his tank than he had a year ago. Riley is an MVP
candidate. Reynolds, Meneses, Miranda, and the rest of the lineup can
rake as well. The MLB average OPS last year was .706. Akron's lineup
features eight players who are above that average.
Weaknesses: This year's bullpen is nowhere near as good as last year's.
Hader's performance fell off a cliff, leaving someone named John
Schreiber as the de facto "closer." He's actually a decent closer, as he
limits the longball and has balanced splits (676/522). I don't know who
the hell he is or where he came from, but of course, I don't follow
baseball very closely. I just looked it up, and D.J. didn't even pick
him up until the Chapter Four deadline last year -- with the final pick
in that first round. So, I guess 23 of us don't know who the hell he is,
either.
Outlook:
With a starting rotation like this one, how could they possibly not win
a division title? In fact, with a starting rotation like this, Akron has a
fighting chance to defend their BDBL title with another title. As we all saw
last November, a starting rotation can carry a team all the way to the
finish line in the
Tournament of Randomness, where regular-season offensive performance
seems to fly out the window.
This year's Ryche are arguably better than last year's trophy-winning
Ryche. The starting rotation is somehow even better than it was a
year ago, when Akron owned the best rotation this league has ever seen.
The lineup is missing Josh Bell, but Meneses is a fair (although limited
in usage) replacement. Swanson also left via free agency, but Gimenez
(who came out of absolutely nowhere) is even better.
Prediction:
1st place. I expect Akron to reach the OLCS for the third time in the
last four years. I don't think they'll make it past Los Altos, but
stranger things have happened before.
Las Vegas Flamingos
Owner: John Bochicchio
2022 Record: 83-77 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Zack Wheeler (.626), Tyler Anderson
(.617), Chris Bassitt (.656), Tyler Mahle (.693), Jeffrey Springs
(.620), Braxton Garrett (.725)
Bullpen: Yency Almonte (.470), Brock Burke (.630),
Camilio Doval (.624), Cionel Perez (.568), Lucas Luetge (.721), Jharel
Cotton (.713)
Projected Lineup: Dylan Moore (2B, .753), Francisco
Lindor (SS, .788), Pete Alonso (1B, .869), Hunter Renfroe (RF, .807),
Taylor Ward (LF, .833), Odubel Herrera/Josh Naylor (DH, .739/.856), Adam
Duvall (CF, .677), Yan Gomes (C, .625), Isiah Kiner-Felefa (3B, .642)
Strengths:
If you had told me in 2019 that Tyler
Anderson and Chris Bassitt would be above-average starting pitchers, I
would have enjoyed a hearty chuckle. Back then, Bassitt was okay, I
guess. He posted a 3.81 in 144 innings that year, but did so at age 30.
Anderson, meanwhile, was a total bum. He posted an 11.76 ERA in 20+
innings with the Rockies that year, and hadn't ever given any impression
that he was on the verge of a breakout. But just look at the two of them
now!
The winner of the "Out of Nowhere"
award, however, goes to Springs, who suddenly discovered that he can
pitch at age 29. I cut Springs back in 2021 in the foolish belief that
he can't pitch. Boy is my face red! Put Springs together with Anderson
and Bassitt, and add the franchise ace Wheeler, and you have yourself a
damn good starting rotation. In most divisions, this would be the best
rotation in the division. In this one, Vegas will have to settle for
third place.
Speaking of coming from absolutely
nowhere, remember Casey Sadler? The dude magically appeared one day to
suddenly become the world's greatest relief pitcher. He racked up a
crazy-insane 0.21 ERA for the Flamingos a year ago, in just 43+ innings.
Then he disappeared as quickly and mysteriously as he appeared. Poof! This year, Casey Sadler's name is Yency
Almonte: 35+ IP, .229 OPS vs. LH, .597 vs. RH. He is surrounded by an
excellent supporting cast of setup men.
The top half of this lineup is very
strong, including one MVP candidate (Alonso) and several above-average
bats.
Weaknesses: If you consider par to be the MLB OPS average of .706, then
the bottom half of this lineup is sub-par. In golf, that is outstanding.
In baseball, not so much. We can't expect every spot in the lineup to be
filled with an above-average superstar. (Well, Jeff Paulson can expect
that, but not us mere mortals.)
The back half of this lineup can be
fixed at the trade table. Anthony Volpe would make some tasty trade
bait, but I can't imagine Johnny Bo trading him. That leaves Grayson
Rodriguez, Jack Leiter, and Cade Horton as the next-tastiest on the
farm.
Outlook: Don't look now, but the Flamingos have finished above .500 two
years in a row. Their last back-to-back winning seasons were way
back in 2006-07. This year, look for the pink birds to increase that streak to an
unprecedented three years in a row.
It's hard to believe this is the final
season of the Lindor Era in Las Vegas. It sure would be nice to send him
off with a division title -- or at least a playoffs visit. In his seven
seasons as a Flamingo, Lindor has only reached the postseason once, in
Vegas' division-winning 2021 season. He hit two homers in the Division
Series to help advance his team to the OLCS, which Billy Romaniello,
managing on behalf of the ousted Jim Doyle, somehow managed to win.
Lindor went just 3-for-20 in that series. It would be a shame if that
were his final playoffs appearance as a Flamingo.
Prediction: 2nd place, and the OL wildcard. For the above reason only, I
am predicting a wildcard win for the Vegas Flamingos in 2023. Call me
sentimental.
South Carolina Sea Cats
Owner: Tony DeCastro
2022 Record: 74-86 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander (.497), Julio
Urias (.599), Zac Gallen (.560), Joe Musgrove (.667)
Bullpen: Adam Ottavino (.591), Jake Woodford (.610),
Andrew Wantz (.661), Connor Brogdon (.713), Jalen Beeks (.673)
Projected Lineup: Jean Segura (2B, .723), Nathan Lowe
(1B, .851), Ji-Man Choi (DH, .729), Nico Hoerner (SS, .736), David Peralta (LF, .731), Michael
A. Taylor (CF, .670), Brian Anderson (3B, .657), Kyle Higashioka (C,
.653), Jake Fraley (RF, .812)
Strengths:
Tony DeCastro made a huge splash in the
auction when he shelled out a whopping $17.5 million to add Verlander to
an already-bloated starting rotation. He also added Musgrove at the
steep price of $9.5 million. With Gallen and Urias already in place,
there is no doubt that this is one of the strongest starting rotations
in league history. All four of those pitchers are likely to earn Cy
Young votes next winter.
Weaknesses:
Evidently, someone forgot to tell DeCastro that offense is half the game
of baseball. I honestly don't know what to make of this lineup. It is an
absolute mess. Neither Segura (.669 OPS) nor Ozzie Albies (.696) can hit
right-handers, but one of them has to play second base. Anderson (.632)
also can't hit righties, but there is no other option at third base. The
bottom five batters in the lineup above own an overall OPS below .700.
The last two holes in this lineup weren't even plugged until the
21st round.
The bullpen is another problem area on
this roster. Having the league's best starting rotation is all well and
good, but if those starters are handing the game over to this bullpen,
what's the point? I have Ottavino listed as the closer, but his .837 OPS
against lefties would make that difficult to pull off. No one else on
the roster fits that job description.
Outlook:
Welcome to the Ozzie League, Tony DeCastro! A year ago on this page, I
predicted that the Sea Cats would contend for the division title.
Instead, they finished below .500, just as they had for the previous ten
seasons in a row. You have to go all the way back to 2011 to find a .500
Sea Cats team (and they finished that year at exactly .500), and
ALLLLLLLL the way back to 2006 to find the last winning Sea Cats team
(97-63.)
I do not believe South Carolina will
finish above .500 this year, which would extend that streak to a dozen
years in a row. This experiment with winning on starting pitching alone
is interesting, I'll give it that, but I do not think it will work. This
is the last year under contract for Julio Urias. If this experiment
doesn't work, at least the team will have some Grade-A trade bait to
fetch some future value in exchange.
Prediction:
3rd place. DeCastro does not have a reputation for wheeling-and-dealing
mid-season, so I do not think he will trade Urias. (I have been wrong
before.) Instead, I think he'll stick with this roster to the end, just
as he did a year ago, with similar results.
Ravenswood Infidels
Owner: Brian Potrafka
2022 Record: 98-62 (2nd place, and the OL wildcard)
Projected Rotation: Alek Manoah (.582), Ross Stripling
(.614), Corey Kluber (.729), Sonny Gray (.639), Lance Lynn (.697), Noah
Syndergaard (.715)
Bullpen: Will Vest (.691), Lucas Gilbreath (.680), Alex
Lange (.620), Taylor Rogers (.725), Trevor Richards (.728)
Projected Lineup: Tommy Pham/Cedric Mullins (CF,
.784/.782), Isaac Paredes/Garrett Cooper (1B, .840/.788), M.J.
Melendez/Eric Haase (C, .839/.731), Gio Urshela (SS, .767), Donovan
Solano (3B, .724), Christian Arroyo/Seth Brown (RF, .777/.793), Gavin
Sheets (DH, .706), Tony Kemp (LF, .641)
Strengths:
Manoah is an absolute beast. In an age
where hardly anyone reaches 200 innings, he barely missed that mark by
just 3 1/3 innings. He held lefties to a respectable .680 OPS, but he
completely dominated right-handed batters. Among all MLB pitchers with
100+ innings last year, Manoah led the league with his .460 OPS allowed
to righties. There are only eight relief pitchers (with 40+ IP) that
allowed a lower OPS to righties!
Stripling (134+ IP, 2.43 CERA, 562/655
splits) would be the ace on most pitching staffs. On this team, he'll
have to settle for number two. Like Stripling, Gray (119+ IP), Lynn
(121+), and Syndergaard (134+) are limited in usage this year, but
effective when used.
Weaknesses: I had a tough time filling in that lineup above. There is no
clear-cut order in which those players should appear. Luis Guillorme
(.351) owns the highest on-base percentage on the roster, but I couldn't
find a spot for him. He is the only batter on this roster with an OBP
above .340, which leaves this team without a leadoff hitter. They also
lack a middle-of-the-order type of hitter, as not a single Infidel owns
an OPS above .800. Urshela (.767) comes closest.
Likewise, I had trouble naming a closer
to this bullpen. Vest (689/691 splits) has balanced splits and 63
innings, so he is the most likely candidate. He isn't exactly a dominant
closer, though.
Outlook: Last year, the Infidels went from last-place to nearly first-place. Nothing could have stopped that runaway train in Akron. They were
a team of destiny. The Baseball Gods have not been kind to Ravenswood
over the past year. The Infidels lost Max Scherzer and Jose Altuve to free
agency. They lost Walker Buehler to injury. Cedric Mullins crashed back
to earth after his out-of-nowhere performance in MLB '21.
This year's team is going to struggle
to score runs, and they're going to struggle to keep runs off the board
in the late innings. This very much looks like a rebuilding year --
especially in this division.
Prediction: 4th place. If this turns out to be a busted season for
Ravenswood, the rebuilding process won't take long. Buehler is expected
to miss most of the 2023 MLB season, but could return by late August.
Syndergaard is still working his way back to full health, and has
flashed signs of that return. Triston Casas should play full-time in MLB
this year, and could be a middle-of-the-lineup contributor to this team.
There are plenty of reasons for optimism in Ravenswood.
Los Altos Undertakers
Owner: Jeff Paulson
2022 Record: 77-83 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Sandy Alcantara (.588), Shane
Bieber (.613), Max Scherzer (.574), Luis Severino (.616), Jose Suarez
(.708)
Bullpen: Emmanuel Clase (.425), Ryan Helsley (.438),
Jovani Moran (.490), Jason Adam (.471), Bailey Ober (.621), Jordan
Romano (.531), Zack Thompson (.512), Keegan Akin (.650), Dustin May
(.611), James Karinchak (.516), Matt Moore (.564)
Projected Lineup: Sam Haggerty/Steven Kwan (CF,
1.100/.811), Bo Bichette (2B, .802), Corey Seager (SS, .772), Eloy
Jimenez (LF, .858), Rob Refsnyder/Michael Brantley (DH, 1.005/.810),
Kyle Tucker (RF, .808), Eugenio Suarez (3B, .791), Patrick Wisdom/Daniel
Vogelbach (1B, .892/.879), Mitch Garver/Christian Vazquez (C,
1.025/.677)
Strengths:
Where to begin? There are only 11 pitchers
in the game of baseball who threw 40+ innings last year and allowed an
OPS below .500. Los Altos owns five of them. There is only one pitcher
in the game who tossed 70+ innings and allowed an OPS below .430. (That
would be Clase.) Not only did those five Undertakers allow an overall
OPS below .500, but Clase (439/414), Adam (433/492), and Helsley
(449/430) allowed a sub-.500 OPS against lefties and righties.
This bullpen is so stacked that four of
the names listed above will be riding the bench on the reserve roster
this season. Los Altos has no room for them. I didn't even bother
listing Seth Lugo (65 IP, 518/776 splits), Seth Martinez (38+, 777/394),
or Clarke Schmidt (57+, 797/548), who most teams would be perfectly
happy having on the active roster. Los Altos has had many, many,
ridiculous bullpens over the years. This one may be the most ridiculous
of them all.
Two years ago, John Gill gifted the
Undertakers with a reigning MLB Cy Young winner, Shane Bieber. This
winter, he did it again, sending reigning NL Cy Young Alcantara to sunny
Los Altos. Paulson then added a third Cy Young candidate to his rotation
by signing Max Scherzer
in the auction. If Severino (102 IP) had thrown a few more innings in
MLB, that would have given Los Altos four Cy Young-caliber starting
pitchers to go along with their ridiculous bullpen.
I haven't even mentioned the offense.
As I have mentioned a few times already, the MLB OPS last season was
just .706. Every qualified hitter on the Los Altos roster owns an
overall OPS above that average with the exceptions of Garver, Jonathan
Aranda, and Vidal Brujan. Aranda and Brujan won't be on the active
roster, anyway. Garver's OPS was dragged down by a .574 OPS against
righties that won't play a factor in this season. His 1.025 OPS against
lefties certainly will, though.
Garver is one of four batters on
the Los Altos roster who has an OPS above 1.000 against lefties. That's
nearly half the lineup, folks. Los Altos' total OPS of .809 against
lefties is second only to the Darien Blue Wave (.813). Against
right-handers, Los Altos has "only" six of their nine batters sporting
an OPS of 800+.
Not listed above is the league's best
pinch hitter. He is arguably the best pinch hitter of all time, given
that he posted an OPS above 1.000 against both lefties and righties. His
name is Matt Carpenter. If you see him in the late innings, just put him
on base. Trust me.
Weaknesses: I have to come up with something, right? I can't just leave
this space blank, can I? How about this: Los Altos doesn't have a
catcher who can hit right-handers. Garver's OPS sits at .574 against
righties, and Vazquez is only at .677. So there you go. One hole in the
lineup. Do with it what you can.
Outlook: It was fun while it lasted, wasn't it? That all-too-brief
intermission from the relentless Los Altos dynasty lasted a grand total
of five years. In that time, a few of us who had never won a trophy
before got that chance. Bobby won his first. D.J. won his first. Jim
Doyle and Billy Romaniello, of all people, got their trophy. Hell, even
I, little ol' me, finally got to win one. It was fun while it lasted.
The fun is now over. The GOAT is back, and he's looking to make BDBL
history with trophy number five. Frankly, I don't know where he puts
them all. It must be an incredible burden.
If you're looking for a silver lining,
consider the fact that Alcantara and Severino are both free agents at
the end of this season. With the way Scherzer ended his MLB '22 season,
it's possible that he may finally fulfill Matt Clemm's prophecy and
become a washed-up has-been at age 39. That would leave Los Altos with
"only" Bieber. Maybe Bieber also stumbles a bit. Hey, a boy can dream,
can't he?
Prediction: 1st place, and the BDBL championship. Championship number five
will tie the all-time record set by Tom DiStefano (who technically
shared his fifth trophy with Gene Patterson.) If Paulson does win it
this year, it will mean that over half (52%) of the 25 trophies we've
ever handed out went to only three people: Paulson, DiStefano, and Paul
Marazita.
Bear
Country Jamboree
Owner: Matt Clemm
2022 Record: 99-61 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Dylan Cease (.584), Luis Castillo
(.611), Drew Rasmussen (.614), Logan Webb (.639), Domingo German (.713),
Freddy Peralta (.569)
Bullpen: Alexis Diaz (.476), Alex Vesia (.527), Matt
Bush (.630), Will Crowe (.686), Craig Kimbrel (.675), David Phelps
(.622), Matt Strahm (.664)
Projected Lineup: Jeff McNeill (2B, .836), Josh Bell
(DH, .784), Freddie Freeman (1B, .918), William Contreras (C, .860), Tim
Anderson (SS, .734), J.D. Davis (3B, .758), Kyle Garlick/Yadiel
Hernandez (LF, .805/.745), Romy Gonzalez/LaMonte Wade (RF, .810/.730),
Myles Straw (CF, .564)
Strengths:
Cease (184 IP, 2.48 CERA, 644/527 splits)
is a legit ace. He is likely to earn a few Cy Young votes at the end of
this season. He is backed by three others who could be called aces as
well. The order in the rotation above is entirely irrelevant, as their numbers are all
similar. The Bear Country bullpen is also filled with capable arms, led
by someone named Alexis Diaz. Diaz posted a 1.75 CERA in 63+ innings
last year, and held right-handers to a microscopic .382 OPS. I have no
idea who he is, but he's pretty good!
(Note: I just looked it up, and Matt
picked up Diaz at the Chapter Five deadline, so apparently no one else
knew who he was, either. That has to be one of the greatest Chapter Five
pickups in league history!)
The Bear Country lineup is rock-solid
one-through-six. Of the six, the only one with a platoon issue is
Anderson, who posted an OPS of only .686 against righties. The Jamboree
don't seem to have a platoon partner there, so they'll have to deal with
it.
Weaknesses: The outfield seems like an afterthought. Bear Country had a
piecemeal outfield at the start of the winter and ended the draft with a
piecemeal outfield. Straw (650/537 splits) can't hit anyone, but plays
Vg defense in center field. Every other outfielder listed above has a
drastic platoon split. The most drastic belongs to Wade, who hit .730
against righties, but only -- get this -- .252 against lefties! I don't
think I've ever seen an OPS that low!
Outlook: In a normal year, Bear Country's team CERA of 2.79 would be
incredibly impressive. This year, the Jamboree are merely one of
eight teams sporting a sub-3.00 CERA as of this writing. Bear
Country's combination of pitching and offense gives them a well-rounded
team that should compete for a playoffs spot this year. Unfortunately,
playing in the same division as the 2023 Undertakers makes the wildcard
the only possible gateway to the playoffs.
This year, we should see a tight race
for that wildcard. The Florida Mulligans and Darien Blue Wave are both
playoff-caliber teams, but only one can win their division. The Las
Vegas Flamingos look like a playoff team, but have the defending
champion Akron Ryche to contend with. The South Carolina Sea Cats and
Cleveland Rocks both have a playoffs-caliber pitching staff, but
probably don't have enough offense to contend.
Prediction: 2nd place. The Jamboree will finish above .500 for the fourth
year in a row. They will more than likely fall far behind the
Undertakers early in the division race, but will compete for that
wildcard based entirely on Matt Clemm's uncanny ability to post
double-digit positive Pythagoreans.
Cleveland Rocks
Owner: Mike Stein
2022 Record: 54-106 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Spencer Strider (.517), Carlos
Rodon (.571), Martin Perez (.646), Clayton Kershaw (.556), Dean Kremer
(.708), Drew Smyly (.717)
Bullpen: Sam Hentges (.516), Reynaldo Lopez (.564), Eli
Morgan (.619), Trevor Stephan (.628), Hayden Wesneski (.580), David Price (.704)
Projected Lineup: Paul Goldschmidt (1B, .981), Gleyber
Torres (2B, .761), Evan Longoria (3B, .767), Gary Sanchez (C, .659),
Nick Gordon (LF, .743), Leody Taveras (CF, .675), ? (RF), ? (DH)
Strengths:
In a sane world, a starting rotation that
includes four pitchers with an opponents OPS below .650 would be
considered unusually outstanding. This season, however, it is
yawn-inducing. Strider, although limited to 144 innings in usage, should
earn a few Cy Young votes in December. Kershaw (138) is also limited in
usage, but will be extremely effective when he does appear on the mound.
The Cleveland bullpen is also stacked
with above-average arms. Hentges (.370 OPS vs. LH) is ridiculous against
lefties, but also holds his own (.617) against righties. Lopez and Morgan have well-balanced splits.
Weaknesses: After Mike Stein paid $11 million to sign the 35-year-old Goldschmidt in the
auction, I made the remark that the signing didn't make a lick of sense
to me. It still doesn't. Cleveland went into the auction with no offense
whatsoever aside from Torres. They had to rebuild an entire lineup with
$34.5 million to spend. Spending nearly one-third of that total on one
guy defeats the purpose if he's surrounded in the lineup by a bunch of
low-cost placeholders drafted in the late rounds of the draft.
Goldschmidt is outstanding; don't get
me wrong. He is the reigning National League MVP for a reason. He will
probably earn a lot of MVP votes in the BDBL this year as well. But look
at the lineup that surrounds him. One bat cannot carry an entire team no
matter how good that bat may be. The next-highest paid player signed by
the Rocks this winter was Gary Sanchez at $5 million. Sanchez (554/697
splits) can't hit. (He also can't catch, but that's another problem.)
The next player drafted by Cleveland was Cody Bellinger (583/684), who
also can't hit for shit. This is not good.
I couldn't even fill out the rest of
this lineup, the options were so bad (or non-existent.) As I type, the
Rocks only have 4,100 plate appearances. With 10% extra, that comes to
roughly 4,500. A team needs between 6,100 and 6,400 PA's to get through
a season. Where on earth is Stein going to find those missing 2,000 PA's?
The free agent garbage dump? You mean to tell me this lineup could get
worse??
Outlook: Out of the frying pan and into the fire. The Rocks have finally
escaped from the hellscape of the Hrbek Division, which is the home of
two of the last four EL champions, but have now entered a fresh new Hell
inhabited by a four-time BDBL champion who appears to be poised for
trophy number five. Mike Stein has his work cut out for him yet again.
Like the Sea Cats, the Rocks appear to
be experimenting with a strategy of having a killer starting rotation
and no offense whatsoever. There are only so many 1-0 and 2-1 games a
team can win. It is extremely difficult to win a baseball game when your
team hardly scores any runs. I know this isn't exactly a groundbreaking
statement to make, but evidently it needs to be made.
Prediction: 3rd place. The only thing saving the Rocks from a last-place
finish is the presence of the Furies. The Rocks have lost 100+ games
three times in the past six seasons. I predict this will be the fourth
in seven.
South
Loop Furies
Owner: Bart Chinn
2022 Record: 76-84 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Robbie Ray (.722), Jose Urquidy
(.730), Jakob Junis (.757), Nick Lodolo (.727), Roansy Contreras (.715),
Aaron Civale (.723)
Bullpen: Liam Hendriks (.620), Caleb Thielbar (.613),
Andrew Chafin (.619), Brad Boxberger (.649), Bryce Elder (.643), Davis
Martin (.748), Drew Smith (.687)
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve (2B, .921), Travis
d'Arnaud (C, .791), Kyle Farmer/Ben Gamel (1B, .948/.751), Josh
Donaldson (3B, .682), Jorge Polanco (SS, .751), Luis Rengifo (LF, .724),
Jace Peterson (RF, .698), ? (CF), Miguel Rojas (DH, .605)
Strengths:
Locking up a relief pitcher to a Type-H
contract has turned out badly more often than not, but at least the
Furies will have a quality reliever for this year. Hendriks isn't a
"lights-out" closer, but he'll get the job done. South Loop's other big
free agent signing, Altuve, will also get the job done with his 1086/860
splits.
Weaknesses: Aside from Altuve, no one else in this lineup is a threat.
Rengifo can hit left-handers (.909), but turn him around and he's
useless (.629). Vaughn Grissom can also pound lefties (.940), but is
severely limited in usage. Farmer (.948) and d'Arnaud (.946) also crush
southpaws. Against righties, however, the only threats are Altuve (.860)
and Polanco (.832).
The starting rotation is rather
mediocre -- or worse, compared to the others in this league. However,
the larger problem is usage. The starters listed above combine for only
760 innings -- or 836 with an extra 10% allowed. That's roughly 125
innings short of a full starting rotation. Where those innings come from
could get ugly.
Outlook: I'm not sure that I get the strategy at play here. Why spend
$18.5 million to lock up Altuve (age 33) and Hendriks (age 34) for three
years when there is not enough of a supporting cast surrounding them to
contend in any of the next three years? There is no youth movement on
the way as far as I can see. d'Arnaud, Donaldson, Farmer, Garcia, and
Peterson are all on the wrong side of age 30. I just don't see how this
team blossoms into a contender over the next few years.
If/when the white flag is raised in
South Loop, Ray (a free agent after this year) could be the team's best
trade bait. Type-H's Altuve and Hendriks can't be traded, and Polanco
($9.5M next year) and Garcia ($6.5) are way too expensive. Last year,
when that flag was raised, Chinn traded his two best assets, Bryan
Reynolds and Freddie Freeman, for eight players. Three of them were
since released. The other five are Shea Langeliers, Brennan Davis, Contreras,
Kevin Alcantara, and Nick Bitsko. Hopefully, he gets a better haul for
Ray.
Prediction: 4th place, with 100+ losses. There's no way to sugarcoat it.
It is what it is.
South
Philly Gritty
Owner: J.D. Luhning
2022 Record: 57-103 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Shane McClanahan (.562), Kyle
Wright (.647), Reid Detmers (.682), Adrian Sampson (.687), Chris Archer
(.708), Andre Pallante (.726)
Bullpen: Raisel Iglesias (.572), Giovanny Gallegos (.594),
Tanner Banks (.596), Taylor Clarke (.718), Matthew Festa (.717), Brett
Martin (.718)
Projected Lineup: Lourdes Gurriel (RF, .743), Carlos
Correa (SS, .834), Nolan Arenado (3B, .891), Jeremy Pena/Rowdy Tellez
(DH, .822/.801), Adolis Garcia (CF, .756), Robbie Grossman/Marcell Ozuna
(LF, .879/.763), C.J. Cron (1B, .783), Austin Nola (C, .649), Cavan
Biggio (2B, .668)
Strengths:
The heart of this lineup features two of
the best hitters in the game: Arenado and Correa. Both play on the left
side of the infield, and both carry above-average gloves. Against
lefties, we may see Jeremy Pena (Ex) take over for Correa (Vg), which
would move Correa to the DH spot. In past years, this would have
presented a strategic challenge for the manager. With the DH now in
place, no thinking is required. No challenge involved. What "progress," eh?
The Gritty have several above-average
gloves that can be moved around the field. In addition to the two above,
Gurriel is an Ex at first base. I put him in right field in the lineup
above simply out of necessity, however, South Philly could carry three
Ex gloves in the infield (Gurriel, Arenado, and Pena) if they wanted to.
The pitching staff is solid. McClanahan
is a legitimate ace and Cy Young contender. Wright is as solid a
number-two starter as you'll find in the BDBL. Detmers (129 IP) has some
usage issues, but is otherwise a very good number three.
Weaknesses: After the front three, the quality of pitching in the rotation
quickly drops. But really, who needs more than three quality
starting pitchers? Beyond that, it's just showing off.
The back end of the lineup is really
weak. Biggio can't hit lefties (.546), and doesn't exactly mash righties
(.691), either. Nola holds his own against lefties (.733), but can't hit
righties at all (.599).
Outlook: The Gritty rebuilding effort turned out to be only a two-year
project. This very much looks like a contending team from top to bottom.
Looking at this roster, it is hard to believe this team lost over 100
games a year ago. The out-of-nowhere breakthrough season by McClanahan
in MLB '22 made a huge difference. A year ago, he posted a 6.24 ERA for
this team. Needless to say, it will be a bit lower than that this year.
Wright was wisely kept stashed on the
farm roster after he missed nearly the entire 2021 season to injury.
Detmers, who was ranked as this team's best prospect (#27 overall) in
last year's Farm Report, enjoyed a fantastic MLB debut. So did Pena, who
was ranked #65 overall in that report. The Gritty are one of many
examples of how winners are built through the farm system.
Prediction:
1st place. This franchise has had ten different owners over the years.
Their last division title happened under the watchful eye of Tony Chamra,
who took that 2006 team all the way to the end, and received a shiny
trophy for his efforts. This Gritty team will probably not win a shiny
trophy, but they'll win a division title and bragging rights in the
Luhning family for a whole year. That's almost as priceless, right?
Blacksburg
Beamers
Owner: Dylan Badger
2022 Record: 79-81 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Jameson Taillon (.713), German
Marquez (.791), Kyle Freeland (.798), Austin Voth (.761), Taylor Hearn
(.769), Michael Lorenzen (.679), Vince Velasquez (.721)
Bullpen: Clay Holmes (.547), Jonathan Loaisiga (.599),
Trevor Gott (.661), Erasmo Ramirez (.676), Joely Rodriguez (.645), Manny
Banuelos (.637)
Projected Lineup: George Springer (CF, .814), Aaron
Judge (RF, 1.111), Matt Olson (1B, .802), Charlie Blackmon (RF, .733),
Jurickson Profar (DH, .723), Eduardo Escobar (2B, .726), Aledmys Diaz
(3B, .691), Christian Bethancourt (C, .692), J.P. Crawford (.675)
Strengths:
Aaron Judge, Aaron Judge, Aaron Judge. The
Captain. The Man, the Myth, the Legend. He is such a superhero of epic
proportions that he is capable of carrying an entire team on his back,
straight to the postseason. Hell, he even managed to do that with the
hapless Yankees last year.
Judge famously blasted 62 homers in MLB
last season. He is now moving from a MLB ballpark with a 108 home run
factor for righties to a brand-new park in Blacksburg with a factor of
120. Is 70 homers a possibility? Perhaps. How about the BDBL record of
79, which was set by Dylan Badger's father's slugger, David Ortiz, back
in 2007? That seems unlikely, but it sure will be fun to watch that
chase!
Judge still has two more seasons
remaining on his contract. Sadly, this will be the last season
he shares the same lineup with Matt Olson and George Springer. Both
players are free agents at the end of this season. Judge and Springer
have been teammates since 2017. In those six seasons, the Beamers
franchise has managed to finish above .500 only twice, winning division
titles in 2018 and 2021. This is the last hurrah for this group.
Weaknesses: Sadly, this trio will have to attempt to win baseball games
without much help from their pitching staff. The Beamers went into the
auction with no starting pitchers whatsoever. Voth (only 101+ IP last
year) and Hearn (100) were the only starting pitchers on the roster with
100 innings or more. GM Dylan Badger went crazy in the auction, filling
in those gaps by signing Taillon ($7M) to a massive Type-H deal.
He also signed Marquez at $5 million, and then drafted Freeland and
Lorenzen in the $5 million rounds of the draft.
Even after those additions, the Beamers
starting rotation remains weak, especially when compared to some of the
other rotations in this league. As of this writing, Blacksburg ranks
dead-last in the BDBL in ERA, and ranks among the lowest in the league
by CERA, OPS allowed, and most other measurements. The new Hokie House
home run dimensions are 140/120, which bodes ill for Marquez, Taillon,
Gott, Velasquez, and Voth -- all of whom allowed more than one homer per
nine last season.
Outlook: Father and son Badger are now squaring off head-to-head for
the same division crown. It will be as fun to watch as the other
father/son division rivalries we've seen in the past: the Sylvesters,
the Gills, and even the Glanders. Unfortunately, this year won't give us
much of a show to watch. Beamers vs. Sovereigns games will be as
tightly-contested as Globetrotters vs. Generals games, only without all
the hilarity.
If the Beamers had a bit more offense,
they could contend for a place in the postseason. They could trade for
some offense, which would require sacrificing some of their top farm
players -- most of whom are still in college or high school. The
prevailing "wisdom" among the "Farm Expansion Forever!" contingent is
that it will now be difficult to replace such talent. That remains to be
seen, and I remain skeptical.
Prediction:
2nd place, and the EL wildcard. I foresee a very short postseason
experience for young Badger. Short, however, is better than nothing.
Kansas
Law Dogs
Owner: Chris Luhning
2022 Record: 93-67 (1st place, EL champions)
Projected Rotation: Brady Singer (.679), Michael Wacha
(.693), Zack Greinke (.737), Kyle Gibson (.759), Austin Gomber (.807),
Trevor Rogers (.816)
Bullpen: Scott Barlow (.590), Robert Suarez (.569), Joe
Mantiply (.640), Chris Martin (.622), Adam Cimber (.669), Dylan Coleman
(.617)
Projected Lineup: D.J. LeMahieu (2B, .734), Sean Murphy
(DH, .759), Albert Pujols/Max Muncy (1B, 1.146/.724), Salvador Perez (C,
.757), Ty France (3B, .774), Randy Arozarena (RF, .773), Matt Vierling/Mike
Yastrzemski (CF, .760/.737), Kike Hernandez (SS, .629), Mauricio Dubon/Kerry
Carpenter (LF, .765/.851)
Strengths:
This bullpen is very deep, and filled with
pitchers sporting well-balanced splits. The bench is equally deep. I
couldn't find a spot for Jazz Chisholm and his .927 OPS against
righties. Likewise, Peyton Burdick (.760 vs. LH) is without a home. Defensively, Kansas could field a lineup with two Ex gloves (Dubon
and LeMahieu) in the infield.
Weaknesses: Kansas ranks near the bottom of the league in every relevant
pitching statistic. Gibson (167+) and Singer (153+) are the only two
pitchers on the roster with more than 150 innings pitched, which means
this team will likely be forced to give someone like Daniel Lynch (5.60
CERA, 862/803 splits) or Kris Bubic (6.22, 1069/793) a spot start every
now and then.
Offensively, Kansas ranks among the
bottom-third in the league in OPS and RC/27. They hit lefties much
better than righties. Part-time bench players Kerry Carpenter (.851) and
Chisholm (.927) are the only two players on the roster with an 800+ OPS
against right-handers.
Outlook:
Simply put, this is not the pitching staff of a contending team. I
believe Chris Luhning knows this, which is why he concentrated most of
his efforts this winter on acquiring players who are likely to fetch a
fair price on the trading market. Quality relief pitchers are always in
demand, and the Law Dogs have plenty of them to offer. Luhning spent
$9.5 million on Chris Martin and Robert Suarez in the auction, likely
with the intention of flipping them at some point. Free agent-to-be
Barlow would fetch a good return as well.
More than $21 million will come off the
Kansas books next winter once Wacha, Yastrzemski, Muncy, and LeMahieu
leave via free agency. With a very strong auction class coming in 2024,
the Law Dogs should be well-positioned to earn their way back into
contention sooner rather than later.
Prediction: 3rd place. It is a rebuilding year for the defending EL
champs. This comes only one season removed from their last rebuilding
year in 2021. The 'Dogs immediately turned it around in one season last
year. They will likely do it again next year. The Kansas pendulum never
stops swinging.
Virginia
Sovereigns
Owners: Tony Badger
2022 Record: 89-71 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Charlie Morton (.727), Nick Pivetta
(.753), Glenn Otto (.734), Brad Keller (.771), Chad Kuhl (.855)
Bullpen: Edwin Diaz (.446), Jacob deGrom (.525), Michael King
(.547), Dylan Lee (.572), Ron Marinaccio (.525), Ryan Pressly (.516),
J.P. Feyereisen (.226)
Projected Lineup: Andrew McCutchen (CF, .700), Nick
Castellanos (RF, .694), Jorge Soler (LF, .695), Nick Fortes (C, .696),
Jesus Aguilar (1B, .661), Roughned Odor (SS, .632), Taylor Walls (2B,
.553), Josh Smith (3B, .556)
Strengths:
If not for the existence of the Los Altos
Undertakers, this Sovereigns bullpen would be the best in the league. I am
assuming that deGrom will be used out of the bullpen, as he was a year
ago, given that he would only be able to make eleven or twelve starts.
If so, he joins the best reliever in baseball, Diaz, along with three
others sporting sub-600 OPS's.
And then there is Feyereisen, who is
on a planet all by himself. He may be the biggest SUS weapon in league
history -- and that is quite a statement to make! He tossed only 24+
innings, but allowed just seven hits and five walks. That's a WHIP of
0.49! He allowed only one unearned run in those 24+ innings, giving him
an ERA of 0.00. His splits are an insane 284/197! Having Feyereisen on
your roster is like having a nuclear missile in your back yard. Before
the season has even begun, Badger has already placed Feyereisen on the Selling board.
It will be interesting to see what he fetches in return.
Weaknesses:
I don't even know what to say about this lineup. I'm thinking that it
may be the weakest lineup in our 25-year history, but I would need to do
a little research before making that call. Suffice it to say that
whatever the league records are for fewest runs scored, lowest batting
average, lowest OBP, and lowest slugging, those records are in serious
jeopardy this season.
There isn't a single batter on this roster who has an OPS above the
league average. Not a single one. Jorge Soler's .820 OPS against lefties
is the only split OPS on this entire roster that is above .750!
Outlook:
It's hard to believe this team scored 795
runs a year ago. Buster Posey retired. Franmil Reyes fell off a cliff.
Eduardo Escobar and Gio Urshela became free agents. Jorge Soler threw
out his back. Shit happens. But when shit happens, you have to try to
clean up the shit! You don't just leave it lying around in steaming
piles!
Here is the greatest BDBL mystery of
this winter: why on EARTH did Tony Badger spend $7 million on Edwin
Diaz? Badger went into this winter with zero offense and a bullpen
chock-filled with closers...so he spent over 20% of his funds on another
closer?! Why?!?!
The problem I see with this offense is
that it will be incredibly difficult to fix. It isn't as if there are
huge bats waiting in the wings on the farm roster. I can't imagine Jesus
Aguilar or Andrew McCutchen suddenly discovering the Fountain of Youth.
The one and only player on this entire roster who owns a split OPS above
.750 is a free agent at the end of this season. Other than maybe the two
Oswalds (Cabrera and Peraza), I can't see any player on this roster
posting an above-average OPS in MLB '23.
You can build an entire offense from
scratch, but it takes a ton of time, money, and top prospects used as
sacrificial lambs. Badger has all the time he wants. He will have money
to spend on a strong auction class next winter. Unfortunately, his farm
system has ranked among the bottom five four years in a row, and this
year will more than likely make it five. Two out of three ain't bad?
Prediction:
4th place, with 100+ losses. At some point, I think Tony Badger needs to
dump his farm strategy. It's killing this franchise. As I mentioned
above in the Gritty review, BDBL (and MLB) history is filled with
countless examples of teams that achieved great success by building
through the farm system. Unless you have Steve Cohen money, it is really
the only way to achieve success in a game like this. The
Sovereigns franchise is stuck behind the eight ball because they have no
youth to look toward when shit eventually happens.
Lake
Norman Monsters
Owner: Joe Demski
2022 Record: 52-108 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Aaron Nola (.603), Merrill Kelly
(.657), Jose Quintana (.645), Joe Ryan (.664), Marcus Stroman (.664),
Hunter Greene (.725)
Bullpen: Paul Sewald (.521), Griffin Jax (.607), Caleb
Ferguson (.572), Bryan Baker (.616), Luis Garcia (.617), Jimmy Lambert
(.672), A.J. Puk (.667), Jose Quijada (.636)
Projected Lineup: Alejandro Kirk (.786), Manny Machado
(3B, .898), Ian Happ (LF, .781), Anthony Santander (RF, .773), Willy
Adames (SS, .756), Starling Marte (CF, .814), Brandon Drury (2B, .813),
Connor Joe/Keston Hiura (1B, .744/.866), Seiya Suzuki (DH, .770)
Strengths:
This is a very good, and very deep, lineup. There isn't a single weak spot from one-through-nine. This
lineup is so stacked, I couldn't even find a place for Randal Grichuk
and his .920 OPS against lefties or Ryan Mountcaste and his 22 homers.
The Monsters lead the BDBL in MLB home runs -- by a lot. They are the
only team in the BDBL with 300-plus MLB homers last season. Three Monsters
(Santander, Machado, and Adames) clubbed 30+ homers in MLB '22. Two
others (Drury at 28 and Mountcastle) topped 20.
Nola is an ace and a workhorse. The
same is true of the recently-added Kelly. Quintana and Ryan are as solid
as you'll find at the back end of any starting rotation. The bullpen is
overflowing with quality arms. Sewald is equally effective against both
lefties (.589) and righties (.468). Quijada (.443) and Puk (.509) stifle
left-handers. Garcia (.574) and Jax (.612) are excellent against
righties.
Weaknesses: I could pick a few nits, but why bother? Of all the players
listed above, not one of them is below-average.
Outlook: If anyone should have been most excited about this winter's
realignment, it was Joe Demski. Imagine this golden opportunity to move
away from Jeff Paulson's division! That said, it seems that the Monsters
would have been the best-possible contender to knock the Undertakers off
of their perch. This Lake Norman team, which lost over 100 games a year
ago, looks as though they can win 100 or more this year.
How did they turn it around so
quickly? I would say that Joe Demski has put on a clinic as the GM of
this squad. One trade that sailed completely under the radar last year
was his acquisition of Quintana from the Great Lakes Sphinx. Who did
Demski sacrifice in that deal? Eric friggin' Hosmer! Where did Joe Ryan
come from? He was acquired from Akron this winter in exchange for
Triston McKenzie. Where did McKenzie come from? He was acquired in a
pre-season 2022 deal with D.C. in exchange for Manny Machado (who was
then re-signed as a free agent.) Where did Adames come from? Another trade acquisition from 2022, also from D.C.
Demski finished in third place in last year's GM of the Year vote. He
should have won the damn award.
Prediction: 1st place. Generally speaking, teams with at least one ace
starter and a strong bullpen, that rely on home runs for most of their
scoring, tend to do well in the playoffs. (The 2022 Salem Cowtippers
being the rare exception. And yes, I'm still bitter about it.) If that
formula holds, then the Monsters should go far in November. How far?
Well, right now, I would rank them as the #2 team in the Eck League
behind the Hitmen. Anything can happen in a short series, but if the
most deserving teams end up winning in the end, then we'll see a Myrtle
Beach vs. Lake Norman ELCS match-up. Wouldn't that be fun?!
Niagara Locks
Owner: Mike Ranney
2022 Record: 95-65 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Pablo Lopez (.700), Jordan
Montgomery (.665), Eric Lauer (.709), Adrian Houser (.722), Mitch White
(.760)
Bullpen: Jorge Lopez (.700), Dillon Tate (.615),
Kendall Graveman (.693), Michael Fulmer (.697), Jesse Chavez (.747),
Garrett Hill (.707)
Projected Lineup: Xander Bogaerts (SS, .833), Vladimir
Guerrero, Jr. (1B, .818), Byron Buxton (CF, .833), Yandy Diaz (DH,
.824), Jonah Heim/Danny Jansen (C, .833/.863), Rodolfo Castro/Ryan
McMahon (2B, .906/.779), Diego Castillo/Jesus Sanchez (RF, .788/.759),
Bobby Witt, Jr. (3B, .722), Chad Pinder/Joey Gallo (LF, .727/.690)
Strengths:
The top of this lineup is the stuff of
nightmares. Guerrero isn't nearly the monster he was last year, but he's
still a massive threat. Niagara's catching platoon will probably combine
for well over 30 home runs this season. There is so much talent on this
roster that I couldn't even find a spot for poor Wander F'ing Franco.
Ranney has demonstrated in the past that he has no problem fielding
players out of position, but even with that option -- and the DH -- I
don't know where to put him.
Weaknesses:
As I mention every year on this page when
reviewing the Niagara roster, you can't win a baseball game without
pitching. It's literally half the game. The Locks somehow managed to win
last year with a pitching staff that cost them less than $9 million.
This year, Ranney doubled that budget, but it still isn't enough to buy
a pitching staff that looks like a contender.
The larger problem I see with the
Niagara pitching staff is a shortage of innings. As I type, the Locks
sit at 1,248 total, which would give them just below the 1,440 they
would need to get through a 160-game season. The problem is who fills
those missing innings. As it stands, the Locks don't have enough innings
from their starting rotation to get through a season. The only options
are to trade for quality innings or sift through the free agent garbage
dump. Neither option is appealing.
Outlook:
It is hard to believe, but this is Xander Bogaerts' final year under
contract with the Niagara Locks. Franco will easily slide into that
shortstop void in 2024, but it sure would be nice to send Bogaerts out
the door with another postseason appearance.
The Great Lakes Sphinx enjoyed several
winning seasons, and several playoff appearances, despite having what
appeared to be, on paper, no pitching whatsoever. The Locks managed to
repeat that trick last year, winning 95 games with the league's
15th-best pitching staff (as ranked by CERA.) The Darien Blue Wave
allowed 43 fewer runs than Niagara and finished 24 games below .500.
The difference-maker, of course, is
offense. The 2022 Niagara offense scored a whopping 938 runs (second
only to Salem.) This year's Niagara offense isn't going to score
anywhere near that many runs. If I had to estimate, I would say the
Locks will score around 725 runs this season. That means they'll need to
allow fewer than 725 runs in order to finish above .500. I can't see
that happening.
Prediction:
2nd place, with a record below .500. The one saving grace enjoyed by
Niagara is that they get to face Highland and D.C. sixteen times each
this season. They should walk away with at least ten wins in those
games, which would artificially inflate their overall wins total.
Highland
Freedom
Owners: Bob Sylvester,
Sr. (manager), Bobby Sylvester (GM)
2022 Record: 46-114 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Miles Mikolas (.640), Jesus Luzardo
(.601), Nick Martinez (.713), Mitch Keller (.729), Lucas Giolito (.794),
Marco Gonzales (.779), Edward Cabrera (.621)
Bullpen: Rafael Montero (.535), Devin Williams (.472), Diego
Castillo (.588), Jose Leclerc (.625), Zach Pop (.650), MacKenzie Gore
(.722), Gregory Soto (.660)
Projected Lineup: Yasmani Grandal/Joey Bart (C,
.773/.665), Jared Walsh (1B, .642), Randall Grichuk/Gavin Sheets (LF,
.926/.736), Yoan Moncada (3B, .626), Oneil Cruz (SS, .744), Kevin
Kiermaier (CF, .649), Luis Robert (RF, .746), Joey Wendle (2B, .658),
C.J. Abrams (DH, .604)
Strengths:
Add Highland to the list of
ridiculously-stocked bullpens in the BDBL in 2023. Castillo would be the
closer for most teams in most seasons, but here, he is a mere setup man.
Williams held righties to a subatomic .365 OPS, but Montero has more
balanced splits (507/560), so I listed him as the closer. Of course, the
Freedom are not legally-bound to use him that way just because I said
so.
Mikolas and Luzardo both came out of
nowhere. Neither player topped 100 innings in MLB '21, and neither
looked poised for a breakout, and yet here we are. Those two breakouts
helped numb the pain of Giolito's unexpected fall from grace.
Weaknesses: The Freedom lineup ranks among the worst in the BDBL in pretty
much every relevant category. There are no threats in this lineup
against lefties or righties, with the sole exception of Robert's .909
OPS against southpaws. Other than that, it's smooth sailing for opposing
pitchers, who can practically take the day off and throw BP to this
club.
Outlook:
From first place in 2021 to last place in
2022...back to first place in 2023? Well, no. Not yet. But it's coming.
There is so much talent oozing from this roster it almost seems unfair.
Who on earth is this team's shortstop of the future? C.J. Abrams? Oneil
Cruz? Royce Lewis? Take your pick, but it can't be all three.
The next Highland dynasty will come in
waves. Wave number one has already arrived, but has been delayed on the
tarmac for just a bit. That wave includes Abrams, Cruz, Jarred Kelenic,
Moncada, Bart, Casey Mize, and Robert, all of whom have already seen a
decent amount of time in the big leagues, but have yet to demonstrate
their full potential.
The second wave arrives within the next
two-to-three years. That wave includes Royce Lewis (who has already tasted The
Show), Henry Davis, Brett Baty, and Nick Gonzales.
Finally, we have the third, and
possibly most devastating wave yet, which will likely arrive within the
next three-to-five years: Elijah Green, Jackson Chourio, and Ethan Holliday.
Prediction:
3rd place. But the trend line is rising sharply.
D.C.
Memorials
Owner: Adam Miner
2022 Record: 79-81 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Nathan Eovaldi (.754), Sean Manaea
(.766), Jake Odorizzi (.720), Keegan Thompson (.731), Spenser Watkins
(.757), Dakota Hudson (.731), Graham Ashcraft (.743)
Bullpen: Kyle Finnegan (.665), Dylan Floro (.625),
Brandon Hughes (.684), Aaron Loup (.671), Brent Suter (.713), Luis Cessa
(.753)
Projected Lineup: Jake McCarthy (RF, .769), Yonathan
Daza/Lars Nootbar (CF, .801/.772), Tyler O'Neill (LF, .700), Jake
Cronenworth (2B, .722), Trey Mancini (1B, .710), Ramon Urias (3B, .720),
Brandon Lowe (DH, .691), Jo Adell (RF, .637), Ildemaro Vargas (SS,
.691), Jacob Stallings (C, .584)
Strengths:
I was taught that if you have nothing nice
to say, don't say anything at all. But that would make this a very
boring season preview, wouldn't it? The nicest thing I can say about
this roster is that it appears to be slightly less dysfunctional than
the city where this team plays.
Weaknesses:
If not for the existence of the Virginia
Sovereigns, this would be the weakest lineup in the BDBL. McCarthy (.769
in only 354 PA's) and Nootbar (.788 in just 347 PA's) are the only two
players on this roster with an overall OPS above .750. Against lefties,
Nootbar (.855) and Daza (.801) are the only two with an 800+ OPS.
Against righties, Nootbar's .772 OPS is the team-high. This team has
three qualified catchers, but not a single one of them can hit.
On the pitching side, Eovaldi is no
ace, and yet there he is listed first in the rotation above. One of the
problems the Memorials have is that their pitchers are no good. A more
pressing issue, however, is that they all have usage issues. Eovaldi can
pitch just 120 innings this year. Every other starting pitcher listed
above has similar usage limits with the exception of Manaea, who is
available for 173 innings.
Kyle Finnegan is no closer, and yet
there he is listed first in the bullpen above. He has some serious
platoon split issues (527/768), but then, so do most of the others in
this bullpen. Floro (770/537) gets smashed by lefties. Cessa (696/806)
gets hammered by righties. This bullpen is a mess.
Outlook:
There is no way to sugarcoat this. The Memorials are a very bad team.
That's the bad news. The good news is that they shouldn't be this bad
for much longer. They should have a crap-ton of money to spend next
winter on a very strong auction class. Odorizzi ($7M) and Mancini ($7M)
will be coming off the books. Another $10 million will be recaptured
when the contracts of Suter, Cessa, Zunino, Stallings, Ortega, Molina,
and Hernandez expire.
Unfortunately, there isn't a lot of
tasty trade bait evident on this roster. Nor do I see any top prospects
who appear poised to make the leap to the big leagues over the next year
and become an asset to the '24 Memorials. These things take time.
Patience is a virtue. (Or so I'm told. I have no personal experience to
validate that claim.)
Prediction:
4th place. Last year on this page, I wrote that the Memorials could win
it all. Instead, they finished below .500. After a while, you have to
wonder why anyone reads this thing.
Myrtle
Beach Hitmen
Owners: Mitch Gill
(GM), Ryne Gill (manager)
2022 Record: 86-74 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Yu Darvish (.587), Max Fried
(.581), Cristian Javier (.557), Tarik Skubal (.661), Taijuan Walker
(.663)
Bullpen: Jimmy Herget (.564), Zach Jackson (.547),
Hector Neris (.580), Joe Jimenez (.609), Tyler Matzek (.590), Steven
Okert (.648), Ryan Stanek (.556), Matt Wisler (.618), Steven Wilson
(.623)
Projected Lineup: Jose Ramirez (3B, .869), Joc Pederson
(LF, .874), Brandon Nimmo (CF, .800), Rhys Hoskins/Jose Abreu (1B,
.945/.816), Tyler Stephenson (C, .854), Teoscar Hernandez (RF, .807),
Brendan Rodgers/Christopher Morel (2B, .899/.782), A.J. Pollock/Andrew
Vaughn (DH, .935/.753), Amed Rosario (SS, .715)
Strengths:
This is the best offense in the BDBL, no
debate about it. By the MLB numbers, Myrtle Beach ranks number one in
the BDBL in OPS and RC/27, but that is largely irrelevant. More relevant
is the fact that there isn't an easy out in this entire lineup. All nine
spots are filled with above-average hitters. It is doubtful that the EL
MVP or Babe Ruth winner will be a Hitman, but this is truly a team
effort.
No fewer than seven Hitmen carry an
overall OPS above .800 (and another is at .794.) Hernandez (.978),
Hoskins (.945), Rodgers (.899), Jose Trevino (.882), Abreu (.857), and
Stephenson (.852) all pound the crap out of lefties. Ramirez (.918),
Pederson (.894), and Stephenson (.852) all pummel righties. Not even
listed above is rookie Corbin Carroll, who posted a .917 OPS against
righties in limited time.
The pitching staffs of the Hitmen and
Undertakers own virtually identical overall numbers. They own an
identical OPS allowed of .593. The Undertakers barely edge-out the
Hitmen in CERA, 2.40 to 2.41. Their hits, walks, home runs, and
strikeouts per nine are all very similar. It's difficult to name an ace of this
Hitmen rotation. Darvish, Fried, and Javier are all likely to get Cy Young
votes at the end of this season. Naming a closer is equally difficult.
Having five relievers with an overall OPS allowed under .600 is a nice
problem to have.
Weaknesses: If you find one, let me know.
Outlook: This is it. The wait is finally over. The time has arrived.
This is the year that this Myrtle Beach Hitmen franchise finally --
finally! -- reaps the rewards of all of the hard work and
extraordinary patience that has led up to this point. For you newbies
who may be unaware of league history, this franchise was once led by a
clownish old man named Jim, who spent 17 years running this franchise into the
ground. In those 17 seasons, Jim's team finished in last-place seven
times, never once made the playoffs, and never once finished above .500.
The Brothers Gill took over in 2017 and
immediately set into action a rebuilding effort that has probably taken
longer than they anticipated. That effort has been painful to watch.
Myrtle Beach lost 113 games in their first season at the
helm, and proceeded to lose 100+ in each of the next four seasons,
including a BDBL-record 128 losses in 2020.
Finally -- mercifully -- the curse was
broken last year. For the first time since the 1990s, this franchise
finished above .500. They missed the playoffs by eight games, but this
is the year that 24-year streak comes to an end. The Hitmen are
playoffs-bound, no question about it. The only question remaining is how
far they can advance in the TOR.
Prediction: 1st place and the EL championship. A World Series matchup
against the Undertakers would be downright fun! Jeff Paulson, the
grizzly vet, against the young Brothers Gill. The Myrtle Beach Hitmen,
losers of so many games in recent history, taking on the GOAT.
The Gill brothers, in their very first attempt at winning a World
Series, set out to accomplish what their father has not been able to do
in four attempts. Unfortunately, I don't see anyone beating the
Undertakers this year. Paulson is too slick, too experienced, and too
lucky to allow that to happen. The Baseball Gods shine upon Jeff Paulson
the way the old Greek gods shined upon Apollo (who, like Paulson, became
a god among men himself!) It may or may not play out the way we'd like,
but either way, it will be a boatload of fun to watch!
Charlotte
Mustangs Owner:
Tony Chamra
2022 Record: 108-52 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Patrick Sandoval (.655), David
Peterson (.706), Chris Flexen (.723), Jose Berrios (.805), Paolo Espino
(.816), Trevor Williams (.720)
Bullpen: Evan Phillips (.430), Collin McHugh (.556),
Kenley Jansen (.612), Lance McCullers (.640)
Projected Lineup: Juan Soto (RF, .853), Yuli Gurriel/Luis
Arraez (1B, .740/.824), Alex Bregman (3B, .820), Julio Rodriguez (CF,
.853), Alex Verdugo (LF, .732), Elias Diaz/Daulton Varsho (C,
.750/.801), Manny Margot (DH, .700), Ke'Bryan Hayes (SS, .659), Santiago
Espinal (2B, .692)
Strengths:
Evan Phillips is the best reliever in the
game of baseball that no one has heard of. I checked around, and even
people who went to high school with him don't remember who the hell he
is. How someone goes from an absolute nobody to the best relief pitcher
in baseball in one year is something that makes the game of baseball
unique among sports. You simply don't see that happen in other games.
Phillips has plenty of capable setup
men paving the way for his ninth-inning appearances this year. The
Mustangs bullpen would look unusually strong if unusually strong-looking
bullpens hadn't become so common in 2023. The top of the 'Stangs lineup
is absolutely stacked. Soto and Rodriguez -- and possibly Bregman --
should receive some votes for the EL Babe Ruth award when all is said
and done.
Weaknesses:
Like many teams in the BDBL this season,
the bottom-third of the Charlotte lineup features three below-average
hitters. The math works out. There are only so many above-average
hitters to go around, and some of these greedy GM's tend to hog them
all.
On the pitching side, Charlotte's
starting rotation leaves a lot to be desired. Sandoval is a decent
mid-rotation arm, but he's no ace. His 385/725 splits will be exploited
mercilessly. Peterson is a decent back-end option, but he's limited to
just 116 innings in usage. Usage issues plague every other starter in
this rotation with the one exception of Berrios (172 MLB IP.) Of course,
the problem there is that Berrios sucks giant, hairy, monkey testicles.
Outlook:
Welcome to the beginning of the Julio Rodriguez Era in Charlotte! It
looks like an uphill battle for Rodriguez and his teammates as they
attempt to defend their division title. Teams with great bullpens have
tended to deliver surprisingly great performances in years past. Combine
Charlotte's bullpen with a very productive top half of the lineup, and
this team might be one of those surprise contenders. Since I'm on record
here, I will predict that will not happen. This team will finish above
.500, but not by much.
Prediction:
2nd place, but more wins than the Iron Spider Pigs. And that is all that
really matters, isn't it?
North
Carolina Iron Spider Pigs
Owner: Ian Hartner
2022 Record: 65-95 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright (.697), Cole Irvin
(.709), Zach Plesac (.741), James Kaprielian (.735), Rich Hill (.747),
Carlos Carrasco (.751)
Bullpen: Enyel De Los Santos (.603), Jaime Barria
(.665), Pete Fairbanks (.393), Jason Foley (.697), Jordan Hicks (.659),
Hoby Milner (.686), Wandy Peralta (.534), Ryan Thompson (.648)
Projected Lineup: Brendan Donovan (LF, .773), J.T.
Realmuto (C, .820), Michael Harris (CF, .853), Matt Chapman (3B, .757),
Alex Bohm/Luke Voit (1B, .935/.767), Chas McCormick/Brandon Marsh (RF,
.972/.735), Kevin Newman/Jonathan India (DH, .837/.704), Trevor Story
(2B, .737), Whit Merrifield/Juan Yepez (LF, .711/.755), Bryson Stott
(SS, .653)
Strengths:
The Michael Harris III Era has begun! He
has power! He has speed! (He just can't hit lefties.) He will
undoubtedly be the face of this franchise for years to come. He is
surrounded in the lineup this year by some very capable batsmen,
including fellow rookie Donovan, veterans Realmuto and Chapman, and a
plethora of platoons.
Defensively, the ISP's are incredibly
versatile. Multiple players play multiple positions. Donovan,
Merrifield, Newman, Stott, and Yepez are all rated at three or more
positions. The ISP's could field a team with three Ex gloves on the
diamond. They could also field a team where every player except one is
rated Vg or better.
Weaknesses:
GM Hartner traded away his best pitcher
(Merrill Kelly) before the season even began. This team's franchise ace,
Jack Flaherty, missed most of the MLB season with an injury. Both
factors have left this team's starting rotation in shambles. The bullpen
is a collection of middling veteran arms with middling splits. It's
tough to get excited about any of them as potential trade bait.
Outlook:
The decision to trade Kelly for prospects sent a clear signal that
this is another rebuilding year in North Carolina. There are a few
promising young players on the roster who could break out in MLB '23 and
help this team next year. The biggest problem I see is the whopping $29
million this team owes to Realmuto, Story, and Wainwright next year.
That handcuffs Hartner in a big way, and effectively freezes this team
out of a very strong 2024 auction class.
Now that Hartner is playing in the same
division as Chamra, it will be fun to watch this natural rivalry play
out. Will they continue to be best buds? Or will the bitter battle for
BDBL supremacy eat away at their once-rock-solid friendship, driving a
wedge between them forever?
(Okay, I'm sure it's the former, but I
have to hype this rivalry somehow.)
Prediction:
3rd place.
Last year, I predicted 85 wins for this team. I was only off by twenty.
This year I'll play it safe and predict 80 wins. Don't make me look
foolish again, guys.
Chicago Black Sox
Owner: John Gill
2022 Record: 94-66 (2nd place, EL wildcard)
Projected Rotation: Cal Quantrill (.696), Frankie
Montas (.710), Alex Wood (.721), Johnny Cueto (.717), Ian Anderson
(.753)
Bullpen: Erik Swanson (.535), Nick Sandlin (.548), Tim
Mayza (.688), Brad Hand (.654), Dany Jimenez (.537)
Projected Lineup: Kris Bryant (LF, .851), Bryce Harper (RF,
.877), Willson Contreras (C, .815), Kyle Schwarber (DH, .827), Javy Baez
(SS, .671), Ramon Laureano (CF, .663), Eric Hosmer (1B, .716), Gavin Lux
(2B, .745), Elehuris Montero (3B, .702)
Strengths:
As always, the greatest strength of the
Chicago Black Sox is its offense. Schwarber (.218/.323/.504, 46 HR)
didn't hit for average, and struck out 200 times, but still managed to
create nearly 100 runs. Harper and Bryant were terrific when they were
in the lineup, but simply weren't in it often enough.
Weaknesses:
If John Gill would stop trading every one of his Cy Young-winning
pitchers to Jeff Paulson, he'd have a terrific pitching staff! As it
stands, Gill was forced to spend $18 million on Cueto, Montas, Swanson,
and Wood just to fill those gaping holes. Even after spending all of
that money, this is still a below-average pitching staff.
The starting lineup has a few holes as
well. Third base seems like an afterthought. Montero only has 203 PA's
of usage this year, but he's the only third baseman on the 35-man roster
as I type. Lux (.684 vs. LH) could use a platoon partner. Ditto for
Hosmer (.693 vs. RH.) Ditto for Baez (.618 vs. RH.) With Harper and
(especially) Bryant limited in usage, backups will be needed to fill
those two spots in the lineup card. Regardless of who that is, it will
be a severe downgrade.
Outlook:
Two-thirds of Chicago's starting lineup is comprised of franchise
players. As those six players go, so goes the franchise. Last year, four of those
six ran into a rough patch. Fernando Tatis missed the entire season to
injury. Harper followed up his MVP season with an injury-plagued 99-game
effort. Javy Baez entered his thirties by forgetting how to get on base
(an OBP of just .278) and forgetting how to hit right-handed pitching (a
.618 OPS.) Kris Bryant also suffered from an assortment of injuries, and
managed to play in just 42 games. The only two franchise players who
managed to avoid injuries and excel were Contreras and Schwarber.
Sadly enough, this is the final hurrah
for this core six. Baez, Harper, and Schwarber are all free agents at
the end of this season. By the end of next season, Chicago will lose
Bryant and Contreras as well. It has been a good run for these
half-dozen teammates. Five of them have played together since 2016.
Contreras was then added in 2019. In the six seasons since 2016, Chicago
has finished above .500 five times. They won four division titles and
one wildcard, and appeared in one World Series.
It's been a great run, but it looks as
though this mini-dynasty will end with a whimper instead of a bang.
Prediction:
4th place. I give it roughly three and a
half nanoseconds into the season before Gill begins waving that white
flag. The problem is that he has no one to trade. He can't trade any of
those six franchise players. Pollock ($8.5M next year) is too expensive.
No one wants Hosmer. The best bets to be traded are Cueto, Montas,
Swanson, and Wood. I'm not sure how much return those guys would get,
but when John Gill is involved, you know it'll be more than you'd
expect.
|