July, 2009
The
10-Year Farm Report
Through
the years, I have attempted many times to measure or quantify our farm systems. Way back in 2003, I
attempted my first-ever "all-time" farm analysis, where I applied
subjective ratings (from -1 for a "WORS" to a +5 for an impact
player) to every player on our BDBL farm clubs. At that time, I declared the Madison
Fighting Mimes (today's Ravenswood Infidels) to have the best farm
system in league history.
People complained, though, that my
system was based too heavily on subjective opinion (and those people
were right.) So, in 2004, I embarked upon yet another exhaustive
historical study of BDBL farm systems, where I applied the
completely non-subjective new stat "win shares" to all players occupying
a spot on our BDBL farm clubs. I then determined that the
Wapakoneta Hippos owned the best farm system in league history.
But people complained that not enough time had passed to properly
evaluate our farm systems. They also complained that because some
teams made more trades than others, those teams were able to acquire
more farm players, and thus rank higher.
So, I dropped the concept. Until
now. Now that ten full seasons have passed, we have a large enough
sample size to properly measure our farm
systems. And I believe I've come up with a completely fair and
non-subjective method for evaluating those farm systems.
I began by compiling a list of every
player ever drafted as a farm player or acquired as a farm free agent.
This system gives zero credit to the GM who traded for a farm player.
There are some who believe a GM
shouldn't get credit for players acquired via trade. Only the
players we had the foresight to acquire in the first place are counted.
However, we're also giving credit to the GM's who acquired a future star and then released or
traded him, believing he had no value. So it's all relative.
No system is perfect.
Next, I had my most trusted and
faithful stat-dude, Greg Newgard, append the career WARP3's to each and every one of these
players. This meant that Greg needed to manually look up the
career WARP3's of all 1,900 players in this list. Yes, Greg is an
incredible asset to this league. And yes, I will be buying him
several beers at BDBL Weekend.
My goal here is not only to discover
which franchise has done the best job of developing a farm system, but
to uncover interesting trends throughout the years. With that in
mind, let me start by answering a question that was asked in a FTDOTC
article a year ago at this time:
Question: How do BDBL farm drafts
break down in terms of professional vs. amateur players, and has this
changed over the years?
It's probably no surprise to anyone
that as this league has matured, we have elected to choose what is
behind door #3 more and more often:
More and more often, as our league
has evolved, GM's are opting for players with zero professional
experience over those with established minor league track records. The question is: how many of these
virtual lottery tickets have actually paid dividends?
Type |
# Players |
Adj WARP3 |
WARP3/Pl |
College |
181 |
342.8 |
1.89 |
High school |
99 |
193.2 |
1.95 |
International |
30 |
16.7 |
0.56 |
Japan |
42 |
169.6 |
4.04 |
Minors |
1,518 |
4,987.2 |
3.29 |
As you can see, Steve Osborne's
strategy of loading up his farm club with Japanese players is a proven
winner. The amateur categories haven't proven nearly as bountiful
as selecting from the professional ranks.
The top ten players from each type:
College:
Player |
Year |
WARP3 |
Franchise |
Teixeira, Mark |
1999 |
34.6 |
GLS |
Prior, Mark |
2001 |
16.5 |
AKR |
Zimmerman, Ryan |
2005 |
15.8 |
SCA |
Braun, Ryan |
2004 |
14.6 |
COR |
Pedroia, Dustin |
2003 |
13.2 |
STL |
Greene, Khalil |
2002 |
12.3 |
SAB |
Swisher, Nick |
2002 |
11.7 |
RAV |
Tulowitzki, Troy |
2005 |
11.3 |
CLE |
Weaver, Jared |
2003 |
11.1 |
LAU |
Youkilis, Kevin |
2002 |
10.6 |
SAL |
High school:
Player |
Year |
WARP3 |
Franchise |
Mauer, Joe |
2001 |
31.6 |
STL |
Beckett, Josh |
1999 |
23.2 |
CHI |
Markakis, Nick |
2003 |
21.6 |
RAV |
Kazmir, Scott |
2002 |
16.6 |
MAN |
Gonzalez, Adrian |
2001 |
16.0 |
COR |
Upton, B.J. |
2002 |
13.4 |
SAL |
Fielder, Prince |
2002 |
12.8 |
STL |
Hermida, Jeremy |
2002 |
9.0 |
LAU |
Danks, John |
2003 |
7.2 |
BCJ |
Kotchman, Casey |
2001 |
7.1 |
SAL |
International:
Player |
Year |
WARP3 |
Franchise |
Contreras, Jose |
2003 |
7.7 |
SCA |
Escobar, Yunel |
2006 |
5.9 |
NAS |
Ramirez, Alexei |
2008 |
2.4 |
GLS |
Morales, Kendry |
2004 |
0.7 |
SAL |
Japan:
Player |
Year |
WARP3 |
Franchise |
Suzuki, Ichiro |
2001 |
53.2 |
MAR |
Matsui, Hideki |
2002 |
17.5 |
BCJ |
Saito, Takashi |
2006 |
15.9 |
KAN |
Johjima, Kenji |
2005 |
12.7 |
SAL |
Otsuka, Akinori |
2004 |
11.0 |
NMB |
Matsui, Kaz |
2002 |
11.0 |
SAL |
Matsuzaka, Daisuke |
2005 |
9.1 |
NAS |
Iguchi, Tadahito |
2005 |
7.8 |
NAS |
Iwamura, Akinori |
2006 |
6.3 |
NAS |
Okajima, Hideki |
2007 |
6.0 |
NMB |
Minors:
Player |
Year |
WARP3 |
Franchise |
Pujols, Albert |
2001 |
78.5 |
STL |
Santana, Johan |
2003 |
58.9 |
RAV |
Berkman, Lance |
1999 |
55.0 |
NHB |
Hudson, Tim |
1999 |
49.9 |
STL |
Oswalt, Roy |
2001 |
49.3 |
ALN |
Rollins, Jimmy |
2000 |
44.4 |
SCA |
Webb, Brandon |
2003 |
41.4 |
CLE |
Sabathia, C.C. |
1999 |
41.3 |
NAS |
Soriano, Alfonso |
1999 |
41.0 |
SAL |
Utley, Chase |
2001 |
38.3 |
CLE* |
*Note: Las Vegas also
gets credit for drafting Utley in 2003.
The next question is: which franchises
have historically gone with that "Door #3" option most often?
Franchise |
# Players |
# College |
# HS |
# Int |
# Japan |
# Amateur |
% Amateur |
SAL |
127 |
42 |
11 |
2 |
7 |
62 |
48.8% |
LAU |
70 |
19 |
10 |
0 |
1 |
30 |
42.9% |
MAN |
67 |
12 |
6 |
4 |
1 |
23 |
34.3% |
COR |
75 |
15 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
32.0% |
NMB |
80 |
6 |
12 |
2 |
3 |
23 |
28.8% |
SCA |
74 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
2 |
18 |
24.3% |
CHI |
54 |
4 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
22.2% |
MAR |
127 |
13 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
26 |
20.5% |
STL |
81 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
15 |
18.5% |
NAS |
73 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
13 |
17.8% |
SAB |
63 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
17.5% |
ATL |
53 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
17.0% |
BCJ |
86 |
6 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
14 |
16.3% |
KAN |
76 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
11 |
14.5% |
GLS |
45 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
13.3% |
CLE |
99 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
13 |
13.1% |
NHB |
50 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
12.0% |
SYL |
53 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
9.4% |
RAV |
107 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
8.4% |
LVF |
57 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
7.0% |
ALN |
93 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
6 |
6.5% |
SCS |
75 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
5.3% |
AKR |
98 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
5.1% |
VIL |
86 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
3.5% |
Boy, is my face red! Almost HALF
of the farm players I acquired over the first ten years were college
kids! I would've bet just about anything that Paulson would have
led that category, yet I picked more more than TWICE as many college
kids (and one more high school kid!) than the King of Kids!
On the opposite end of the spectrum,
it's somewhat of a surprise to discover that the Villanova franchise has
taken a gamble on only three amateur players in ten years! Trivia
answer: those three amateurs are Tony Gwynn, Jr., Satoru Komiyami and
Shingo Takatsu.
In addition to the type of farm
players we've acquired through the years, it's also interesting to see
how we've acquired them. There is roughly a 60/40 split in
players acquired through the draft (59%) and through free agency (41%.)
If we did a good job of projecting future performance, then you would
expect the players drafted in the early rounds would be move valuable
than those drafted in the later rounds.
Round |
# Players |
Adj. WARP3 |
Avg. WARP |
1 |
229 |
1071.5 |
4.68 |
2 |
219 |
900.3 |
4.11 |
3 |
196 |
552.4 |
2.82 |
4 |
160 |
390.9 |
2.44 |
5 |
122 |
253.3 |
2.08 |
6 |
71 |
83.7 |
1.18 |
7 |
53 |
93.4 |
1.76 |
8 |
27 |
49.2 |
1.82 |
9 |
17 |
25.5 |
1.50 |
10 |
6 |
11.3 |
1.88 |
Yep, we did a good job. Who were
the top picks in each round? Glad you asked.
Round |
Player |
Franchise |
Year |
WARP3 |
1 |
Albert Pujols |
STL |
2001 |
78.5 |
2 |
Johan Santana |
RAV |
2003 |
58.9 |
3 |
Chase Utley |
CLE* |
2001* |
38.3 |
4 |
Aaron Rowand |
COR |
1999 |
25.2 |
5 |
Brian Schneider |
STL |
2000 |
20.6 |
6 |
Hank Blalock |
MAN |
2000 |
14.3 |
7 |
Michael Young |
SCA |
2000 |
32.4 |
8 |
Austin Kearns |
LAU |
2000 |
22.0 |
9 |
Paul Maholm |
LAU |
2003 |
10.3 |
10 |
Troy Tulowitzki |
CLE |
2005 |
11.3 |
* Note: Las Vegas also
selected Utley in the 3rd round of the 2003 draft.
Oddly enough, four of those ten players
above were eventually released by the teams that drafted them.
Pujols, needless to say, owns the highest career WARP3 of any player
ever selected to a BDBL farm club.
Finally, I was hoping to answer the
question as to the best farm class in league history. However, as
with the rest of this analysis, there is a clear bias toward the players
selected earliest in the league's history (as they've had more time to
compile career numbers.)
Year |
# Draft |
# FA |
Total |
Avg WARP3 Draft |
Avg. WARP3 FA |
Avg. WARP3 Total |
1999 |
105 |
37 |
142 |
8.8 |
9.1 |
8.8 |
2000 |
143 |
13 |
156 |
3.7 |
5.9 |
3.9 |
2001 |
82 |
72 |
154 |
6.2 |
4.4 |
5.3 |
2002 |
77 |
130 |
207 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
2003 |
185 |
140 |
325 |
2.8 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
2004 |
91 |
68 |
159 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2005 |
99 |
76 |
175 |
2.5 |
1.6 |
2.1 |
2006 |
100 |
75 |
175 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
1.2 |
2007 |
113 |
70 |
183 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
2008 |
110 |
85 |
195 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
This is somewhat surprising, given the
legendary status of the 2001 farm class. However, the 1999 class
deserves its top ranking, as it included Lance Berkman, C.C. Sabathia,
Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Rafael Furcal, Vernon Wells, Adam Kennedy,
Ramon Hernandez and Pat Burrell, among others. Mark Teixeira, Josh
Beckett, Tim Hudson, Joe Nathan, Miguel Cabrera, Jason LaRue and Eric
Gagne were also acquired as farm free agents that year.
And now, for the moment you've all been
waiting to brag about:
Overall rank |
Franchise |
# Players |
WARP3 |
Adj. WARP3* |
Top 30^ |
Top 30 rank |
1 |
RAV |
107 |
406.6 |
428.2 |
389.0 |
2 |
2 |
STL |
81 |
375.0 |
395.6 |
395.6 |
1 |
3 |
MAR |
127 |
361.9 |
384.6 |
374.1 |
3 |
4 |
CLE |
99 |
350.4 |
370.0 |
354.4 |
4 |
5 |
SAL |
127 |
289.8 |
313.7 |
289.6 |
6 |
6 |
AKR |
98 |
288.6 |
300.8 |
292.5 |
5 |
7 |
COR |
75 |
272.4 |
282.9 |
282.1 |
7 |
8 |
ALN |
93 |
265.8 |
281.3 |
279.0 |
8 |
9 |
SCA |
74 |
255.4 |
267.4 |
267.4 |
9 |
10 |
VIL |
86 |
239.2 |
258.3 |
251.9 |
10 |
11 |
LAU |
70 |
236.5 |
241.2 |
240.3 |
11 |
12 |
KAN |
76 |
215.8 |
227.6 |
221.3 |
14 |
13 |
BCJ |
86 |
210.0 |
227.1 |
221.6 |
13 |
14 |
NAS |
73 |
213.5 |
225.9 |
224.5 |
12 |
15 |
SCS |
75 |
184.8 |
199.1 |
199.1 |
15 |
16 |
LVF |
57 |
177.6 |
191.8 |
191.8 |
16 |
17 |
CHI |
54 |
168.8 |
174.6 |
174.6 |
17 |
18 |
MAN |
67 |
162.7 |
170.8 |
170.8 |
18 |
19 |
GLS |
45 |
154.4 |
160.4 |
160.4 |
19 |
20 |
NHB |
50 |
137.1 |
141.4 |
141.5 |
20 |
21 |
SYL |
53 |
122.1 |
130.4 |
130.4 |
21 |
22 |
NMB |
80 |
105.2 |
120.3 |
120.3 |
22 |
23 |
SAB |
63 |
105.5 |
118.3 |
118.3 |
23 |
24 |
ATL |
53 |
81.2 |
97.8 |
97.8 |
24 |
* Note: "Adjusted WARP3"
simply excludes negative WARP's.
^ Note: "Top 30" denotes the total WARP3 of the franchise's top 30
prospects.
#1
Ravenswood Infidels
Top 10 prospects: Johan
Santana, Vernon Wells, Dontrelle Willis, A.J. Burnett, Nick Markakis,
Mark Ellis, Robinson Cano, Alex Rios, Jayson Werth and Tim Lincecum.
Just as I concluded in my first-ever
"Historical Farm Analysis," the Infidels franchise has had the most
successful farm system in league history. Oddly enough, the
Infidels franchise owns the second-worst average ranking in our annual
BDBL Farm Report (with an average ranking of 17.8.) Hmm...maybe
the experts don't know as much as they like to make us think they know!
Of the players listed above, Santana ranked only as high as #51 on
Baseball America's top 100 list, Wells reached #12, Willis reached
#43, Burnett peaked at #20, Markakis ranked as high as #21, neither
Ellis nor Cano were ever ranked, Werth ranked #48 (before falling
quickly) and Lincecum was the #11 prospect in baseball in 2007.
#2 St. Louis Apostles
Top 10 prospects: Albert
Pujols, Tim Hudson, Joe Mauer, Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Brian
Schneider, John Lackey, Luis Ayala, Jonathan Papelbon and Dustin Pedroia.
That list above doesn't include Prince
Fielder, Francisco Liriano or Joba Chamberlain, who will likely join the
top ten soon enough. If you take only the top 30 prospects from
each franchise, the Apostles rank #1 in league history. Pujols
alone would carry any franchise's WARP3 total to the top of the ranking,
as he owns a WARP3 that is 19.6 ahead of the next-best player on the
list (Johan Santana.) Hudson (49.9) gives the Apostles franchise
two of the top five. Incredibly, of all of those names I just
mentioned, all of them except Pujols were traded before they had made
much of an impact on the Apostles franchise. Even Pedroia was
traded before he was reacquired last winter.
#3 Marlboro Hammerheads
Top 10 prospects: Ichiro
Suzuki, Carlos Zambrano, Orlando Hudson, Milton Bradley, Ryan Howard,
Casey Blake, Aaron Cook, Brad Lidge, Joe Crede and Ian Kinsler.
There are interesting stories
surrounding many of the players listed above. Suzuki was expected
to be the #1 overall pick in the 2001 farm draft. I once held both
the #1 and #2 overall picks in that draft, but traded the #2 pick to
Sharky in a huge multi-player trade. I announced that Ichiro would
be my #1 pick weeks before the farm draft began. But at the last
second, I changed my mind and selected Adam Johnson instead. The
rest is the stuff of BDBL legend. Zambrano was traded for Mike
Trombley, and Howard was traded (along with Scott Olsen) for Aquilino
Lopez and Dan Plesac, in two of the worst trades of Sharky Kaminski's
career.
#4 Cleveland Rocks
Top 10 prospects: Brandon
Webb, Chase Utley, Milton Bradley, Ramon Ortiz, Russ Martin, Jeremy
Affeldt, Joe Crede, Freddy Sanchez, Dan Uggla and Rick Ankiel.
Surprise, surprise, surprise! The
worst farm system in BDBL history, according to our annual BDBL Farm
Report (with an average ranking of 21.0 out of 24 teams) has owned the
fourth-best farm system in terms of actual performance. Looking at
that list above, it's easy to see why. Aside from Ankiel (ranked
#1 by Baseball America in 2000), Ortiz (ranked #28 in 2000) and
Bradley (ranked #36 in 2000), none of Cleveland's top ten farm products
were ever ranked among the top 80 by BA. It's
difficult to believe today, but in June of 2003, when Brandon Webb had
55 MLB innings under his belt and a 2.45 ERA, he lasted until the second
round of the mid-season free agent draft before Stein took a flier on
him. Of course, he was traded the following chapter as part of the
disastrous Barry Bonds deal. BDBL trivia: Ankiel was the
first-ever BDBL farm player, selected way back when he was still a
pitcher.
#5 Salem Cowtippers
Top 10 prospects: Alfonso
Soriano, Grady Sizemore, Aaron Rowand, B.J. Upton, Jeff Zimmerman, Kenji
Johjima, Kaz Matsui, Kevin Youkilis, Jeff Francis and Justin Verlander.
Despite my apparent fixation with
college players, only two of the players listed above (Francis and
Verlander) were selected out of college. Technically, I could have
listed Soriano as a Japanese player, as he played in Japan the year
before I selected him (in the second round of the inaugural farm draft.)
If your eyebrow is raised over the fact that Kaz Matsui has a higher
career WARP3 than Youkilis, you're not alone. No stat is perfect,
and evidently WARP3 has its flaws. If I can convince Greg to do
all the work for me again for our 20th anniversary, I imagine that
Jacoby Ellsbury, Casey Kotchman, Stephen Drew and Alex Gordon will have
displaced some of those names in the top ten.
#6 Akron Ryche
Top 10 prospects: Ramon
Hernandez, Adam Dunn, Travis Hafner, Rich Harden, Mark Mulder, Mark
Prior, Jeff Weaver, David Riske, Cliff Lee and Ryan Church.
Anyone else surprised that the top
three prospects to come out of the Akron Pitching Factory are all
hitters? The fact that two of Akron's top three pitching products
have spent the vast majority of their careers on the DL shows you how
difficult it is to cultivate a pitching staff from the farm club.
DJ Shepard has only selected five amateur players in his GM career:
Prior, Stephen Drew, Dustin Ackley, James Darnell and Matthew Shepard
(his son.)
#7 Corona Confederates
Top 10 prospects: Mark
Buehrle, Aaron Rowand, Juan Pierre, Garrett Atkins, Wade Miller, Nick
Johnson, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Braun, Jayson Werth and Byung-Hyun Kim.
All ten of the players listed above
were selected by Paul Marazita, and only Braun was selected after 2002.
Again, it's difficult to imagine a player like Buehrle lasting until the
final pick of the first round of the Chapter Five free agent pick-up
period, but that's exactly how he was acquired. Just two years
later, he filled the void left by the departed Randy Johnson.
Marazita took full advantage of the fact that most people in the BDBL
didn't pay a lot of attention to free agency in the early years of the
league, as five of the top ten were acquired as free agents. The
best free agent selected by Ed McGowan to date? That would be
Peter Moylan (career WARP3 of 4.7.) Of course, Jay Bruce and
Cameron Maybin will soon lap Moylan on that all-time chart.
#8 Allentown Ridgebacks
Top 10 prospects: Roy Oswalt,
Joe Nathan, Brandon Inge, Jhonny Peralta, Brad Wilkerson, Rocco Baldelli,
Felix Hernandez, Andre Ethier, Chad Tracy and John Maine.
Allentown is another franchise that has
historically shied away from amateur players, with only one college
(Andrew Brackman), one high school (Andrew Miller) and one Japanese (Kaz
Ishii) farm acquisition in ten years. Like his doppelganger,
Marazita, Tom DiStefano used the mid-season free agent transaction
period to acquire half of his top top prospects. But the biggest
fish he ever caught was Oswalt, snagged with the #3 overall pick in
2001. Oswalt was one of those rare pitchers who hits the MLB
ground running. He made an impact on the Ridgebacks franchise
immediately, and was extremely effective for the next several years,
earning a reputation as perhaps the greatest playoffs pitcher in BDBL
history.
#9 Southern Cal Slyme
Top 10 prospects: Jimmy
Rollins, Jake Peavy, Michael Young, Randy Wolf, Ryan Zimmerman, Octavio
Dotel, Reed Johnson, J.J. Hardy, Jose Valverde and Dioner Navarro.
I tend to forget that Jake Peavy was
originally a Slyme. Midway through the 2002 season, the Ridgebacks
were on their way to the most dominating season in BDBL history, while
the Slyme were heading toward the worst record in the BDBL. So why
on earth would the worst team in the league trade their best prospect to
the best team in the league? Well, at the time, the Ridgebacks
needed a left-handed pinch hitter for the playoffs. Bob Sylvester
put first baseman Fred McGriff on the block, and McGriff (who hit
.363/.442/.642 in 179 AB for Allentown down the stretch) certainly fit
the bill. To get that bat, Tom DiStefano gave up Vernon Wells, who
was a 23-year-old up-and-comer who would finish 2002 with a
.275/.305/.457 average in his first full MLB season. Fair enough,
right? Well...DiStefano also added Chin-Feng Chen, Abraham Nunez,
Chad Tracy and Barry Larkin, and got Sylvester to throw in Peavy to make
it even. The rest is history.
#10 Villanova Mustangs
Top 10 prospects: Miguel
Cabrera, David Eckstein, Brian McCann, Tony Armas, Henry Blanco, Rod
Barajas, Chad Billingsley, Chris Snyder, Jeremy Guthrie and Andre Ethier.
What's that? You don't remember
Cabrera being a member of the Mustangs franchise? That's because
then-GM Eric Zigmund released Cabrera in Chapter Six of 1999 in order to
make room on the farm roster for...wait for it...Armando Almanza.
Strange, but true. Three of this franchise's top ten prospects
were acquired during that 1999 season. But 2004 was also a good
year for the 'Nova farm, as McCann, Billingsley, Snyder and Ryan Domit
were all acquired in the draft. (That was the year Tony decided to
corner the market on catchers.)
#11 Los Altos Undertakers
Top 10 prospects: Ben
Sheets, Austin Kearns, Juan Uribe, Carlos Pena, David Bush, Brett Myers,
Oliver Perez, Jared Weaver, Mike Cuddyer and Paul Maholm.
How funny is it that -- after all the
bad-mouthing Jeff Paulson has done over the years -- Austin Kearns is
this franchise's second-best prospect to date? Incredibly, despite
all the concentration on college and high school kids throughout the
years, only two of the top ten came from the college ranks (and none
from high school.) Of course, Justin Upton, Jeremy Hermida and
Matt Wieters could change that someday.
#12 Kansas Law Dogs
Top 10 prospects: David
Wright, Carl Crawford, David DeJesus, Takashi Saito, Jose Lopez, Juan
Rincon, Johnny Estrada, Zack Duke, Ryan Madson and Bobby Crosby.
Some of the players taken ahead of
David Wright in the 2002 farm draft: Wily Aybar, Luis Terrero, Brian
Sager, Gary Burnham, Mike Gosling, Craig Anderson, Garrett Gentry, Mark
Phillips, Allen Baxter, Alex Herrera, Tony Pluta, Joe Thurston, Eric
Cyr, Will Smith, Adam Morrissey, Ryo Kumagai, Adrian Burnside, Jesus
Cota, Mario Ramos, Tim Hummel and Felix Diaz. It's hard to believe
Wright isn't the best third-round pick in farm draft history (at least,
according to WARP3.) That honor (so far) belongs to Chase Utley.
#13 Bear Country Jamboree
Top 10 prospects: Carlos
Lee, Jacque Jones, Hideki Matsui, Kris Benson, Dustin Pedroia, David
Bush, Ryan Freel, Josh Willingham, John Danks and Francisco Liriano.
Three of the franchise's top four
prospects were selected by infamous BDBL villain Bryan Sakolsky in 1999.
Of the others, only Liriano and Willingham (494 AB for Bear Country in
2007) ever actually played for the Jamboree.
#14 Nashville Funkadelic
Top 10 prospects: C.C.
Sabathia, Casey Blake, Brian Fuentes, Kelly Johnson, Josh Hamilton,
Joakim Soria, Toby Hall, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Juan Rivera and Dan Wheeler.
The Nashville franchise's top two farm
products both came from the inaugural draft of 1999. Hamilton,
Soria and Matsuzaka were all acquired by Steve Osborne. Osborne's
obsession with Japanese players resulted in only two other players with
positive WARP3 value: Tadahito Iguchi and Akinori Iwamura.
Incredibly, Marlboro (Ichiro) and Salem (Kenji Johjima and Kaz Matsui)
actually squeezed more value out of the Japanese market than Nashville.
#15 South Carolina Sea Cats
Top 10 prospects: Freddy
Garcia, Jason LaRue, Jose Reyes, Aaron Harang, Justin Duchscherer, Hank
Blalock, Brady Clark, Jon Lester, Oscar Villareal and Dan Johnson.
It's hard to believe LaRue has a higher
career WARP3 than Reyes, but he did have a four-year head start.
Not one of the Sea Cats' farm products with a positive WARP3 came from
the high school, college, Japan or international ranks. All were
established minor leaguers. Only 25 players from the Carolina farm
system have compiled a positive career WARP3, and only 13 of those 25
make a living hitting the ball.
#16 Las Vegas Flamingos
Top 10 prospects: Chase
Utley, Rafael Furcal, Erik Bedard, Chien-Ming Wang, Guillermo Mota, Jake
Westbrook, Gerald Laird, Joe Blanton, Alfredo Amezaga and Shawn Chacon.
Eight of the ten players listed above
were acquired during the draft, and only one (Westbrook) was picked up
in the first round. Johnny Bo hasn't had much luck with free
agency, as only six players acquired as farm free agents have compiled
positive career WARP3's: Amezaga, Chacon, Greg Smith, Lance Broadway,
Matt Blank and Jason Anderson. Not exactly a parade of stars.
Bochicchio only took a dip in the amateur pool five times in ten years
(including, famously, selecting Toe Nash), and none of those players has
yet to produce a positive career WARP3.
#17 Chicago Black Sox
Top 10 prospects: Francisco
Rodriguez, Victor Martinez, Josh Beckett, Aubrey Huff, Dan Uggla, Josh
Hamilton, Ryan Ludwick, Evan Longoria, Kurt Suzuki and Jason Marquis.
Boy, that list of players above sure
seems more impressive than some of the lists above it, yet the Black Sox
franchise owns only the 17th most productive farm system in the league's
first decade despite an average Farm Report ranking of 7.2. The
main reason is that Chicago's best farm products haven't had enough time
yet to build impressive careers. Give this franchise another
decade and they could easily rank at the top of this study.
#18 Manchester Irish Rebels
Top 10 prospects: Miguel
Cabrera, Nick Markakis, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir, Hank
Blalock, Corey Patterson, Jeremy Hermida, Carlos Quentin and Joe
Saunders.
Like the Black Sox above, the Irish
Rebels' list of top ten prospects seems a lot more impressive than its
ranking. And again, the reason is that most of these players
didn't become successful until the latter half of the league's first
decade. Of the top ten, only Cabrera (2002), Kazmir (2002) and
Patterson (1999) were acquired prior to 2003. Jim Doyle's patented
strategy of running his finger down the list of the previous year's
first round MLB draft picks resulted in the acquisitions of seven of the
top ten above.
#19 Great Lakes Sphinx
Top 10 prospects: Mark
Teixeira, Pat Burrell, Justin Morneau, Bobby Jenks, Adam Wainwright,
Adam LaRoche, Carlos Marmol, Chris Young (OF), Todd Wellemeyer and
Felipe Lopez.
Losing has its advantages: four of the
top ten above were selected in the first round of the draft.
Teixeira was famously traded (in exchange for Wes Anderson) while a
sophomore in college. Burrell was this franchise's first-ever farm
selection, and Morneau and Wainwright were products of the Dean Ashley
scouting system. That leaves Jenks as Scott Romonosky's most
productive farm product.
#20 New Hope Badgers
Top 10 prospects: Lance
Berkman, Doug Davis, Gary Matthews, Shaun Marcum, Jody Gerut, Kelly
Shoppach, Saul Rivera, Robb Quinlan, Kevin Slowey and Rajai Davis.
Considering that Phil Geisel ignored
his farm club for the first six years of this franchise's history,
ranking #20 is actually pretty impressive. Not surprisingly, given
the fact that Geisel hardly ever selected free agents during the season,
all ten of the franchise's top ten came from the draft. Marcum,
Slowey and Davis were all selected by Tony Badger.
#21 Sylmar Padawans
Top 10 prospects: Jason
LaRue, Eric Gagne, Jon Garland, Jason Jennings, Jay Gibbons, Denard
Span, Shea Hillenbrand, Scott Downs, Howie Kendrick and Joe Kennedy.
Eight of this franchise's top ten farm
products came from the scouting efforts of Mark Ross. The first
round of the farm draft hasn't resulted in very many "hits" over the
years. Gibbons, Downs, Christian Parra, Gary Burnham, Scott Moore,
Adriano Rosario, Brendan McCarthy, Michael Durant, Sean O'Sullivan and
Andrew Brackman have totaled just 18.6 WARP3 over ten years.
#22 New Milford Blazers
Top 10 prospects: Brad
Penny, Chris Young (P), Zach Greinke, Akinori Otsuka, Jack Cust, Hideki
Okajima, Yovani Gallardo, Brian Tallett, Micah Owings and Hiroki Kuroda.
It's difficult to tell how many of
these players above were acquired by Billy Romaniello, and how many can
be credited to Anthony Peburn. Regardless, it's interesting to
note that the top four players (and nine of the top ten) produced by the
New Milford farm system are all pitchers. The Blazers owned the #1
overall farm pick three times in ten years. Two of those picks
were traded, and the other one was used to select Luis Rivas.
#23 San Antonio Broncs
Top 10 prospects: Marcus
Giles, Chris Singleton, Khalil Greene, Eric Hinske, Huston Street,
Jeremy Hermida, Aaron Hill, Wily Tavares, David Murphy and Brad Ziegler.
Three of the top ten (Giles, Hinske and
Hermida) were first-round draft picks. Greene, Street and Murphy
were all selected out of college. (Note: Murphy was actually
acquired twice -- once in 2003 and again in 2006.) And eight of
those ten make a living swinging the bat.
#24 Atlanta Fire Ants
Top 10 prospects: Adam
Kennedy, Dan Haren, Ted Lilly, Ricky Nolasco, Jason Frasor, Jeff
Francoeuer, Jair Jurrjens, Wily Mo Pena, Blake DeWitt and Mike Darr.
That list above deserves a ranking
better than #24. But given that most of those players were
selected after 2003, it's not surprising that Atlanta ranks so low in
this study. The problem is a lack of quantity -- not quality.
Only FIFTEEN players acquired by the Atlanta franchise through the farm
draft or through free agency have generated a positive WARP3. For
the mathematically-challenged, that's an average of 1.5 per year.
Given that our farm systems have ranged from five to fifteen players a
year over ten years, that is an incredible (lack of) achievement!
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