January 25, 2001

BDBL 2001 Preview

It may be winter for most of you (well...except Dean), but here in the BDBL it is spring.  Two weeks before Major League pitchers and catchers report to Florida and Arizona, BDBL teams will be taking the field for Opening Day.  And 30 days (or more) after the final pitch of the Major League World Series, we will be wrapping up our regular season.  It is a long season to say the least.   Fortunately, the length of our season allows us ample time to delude ourselves with false hope that some team other than the Zoots will win the BDBL championship this year.

With the dawn of another new season, it has become BDBL tradition for me to write a series of really bad predictions.  Predictions such as:

• "This year, I think (the Los Altos Undertakers) will win 75-80 games."  (Hey, I was only 24 games off!)
• "...(I am) predicting the Blazers to finish third in the Griffin Division..."  (Only 16 more wins and they would have.)
• "The Swamp Rats are a few players away from guaranteeing a spot in the post-season."  (And they were...if you define "a few" as 35.)
• "(The Litchfield Lightning) offense is too good, and the pitching too deep, for the Lightning not to win (the Griffin Division.)"   (They did win 102 games, but no division title.)

Unfortunately, my bad predictions weren't limited to the Griffin Division.  Read on:

• "...(the Plattsburgh Champs) offense may just be enough to carry them into the post-season."  (...unless the Salem Cowtippers end up scoring 126 more runs than the Champs!)
• "...the Predators could threaten .500 thanks to their bullpen, but I wouldn't expect much more than that."  (Note: Phoenix actually finished eight games above .500.)
• "I think this team (the South Carolina Sea Cats) will contend for a wild card."  (Instead, they contended for the #1 draft pick.)

To be fair, I also had my fair share of good predictions:

• "When you get right down to it, is there really any reason why we should go through the motions and play out this season?  The fate of the 2000 season was sealed the moment Marazita shipped off Jose Rosado for Johnson last season.  The Zoots will face some stiff competition in the Ozzie League, especially in their own division, but in the end - barring a miracle - they'll end the regular season exactly where they were last year."
• "After an intense two-month struggle with the Madison Fighting Mimes, Marazita (will deal) John Halama to the New Milford Blazers in exchange for Alex Fernandez, Tony Fernandez and Matt Mantei (and three of New Milford's draft picks, thrown in to "balance it out.")"  (Note: I was right about Halama, but wrong about who he'd get for him.  To be fair, Nostradamus himself couldn't have predicted that the soft-tossing Halama would have fetched John Smoltz.)
• "The senior Sylvester (will be) humbled by his own flesh and blood in the opening round of the playoffs, as the Slyme are swept out of town without a prayer."  (Note: this prediction was so accurate that, frankly, I'm now frightened of my own powers.)

I also predicted all three of the Eck League division champions and five of the eight playoff teams.  But enough about last year.   This is a time where we should be looking forward, not backward.  So let's do that.

The usual disclaimer: Please do not be offended by anything you read here.  This is just one man's opinion.  And as you have already witnessed, this man is wrong more often than he is right.

Jump to:

OZZIE LEAGUE

STAMFORD ZOOTS

Owner: Paul Marazita
2000 Finish: 99-61 (1st place, BDBL champions...again)
Projected rotation: Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Rick Helling, Gil Meche and C.J. Nitkowski
Bullpen: Jose Paniagua, Bung Hole Kim, Mark Buehrle and Onan Masaoka
Projected lineup: 1. Omar Vizquel, 2. Chad Curtis/Rusty Greer, 3. Edgardo Alfonzo, 4. Rafael Palmeiro, 5. Magglio Ordonez, 6. Ruben Mateo/Michael Tucker, 7. Mike Lowell/Ken Caminiti, 8. Brad Ausmus/Joe Oliver.

Strengths: For the third year in a row, the Zoots' strengths will be: a) the first two pitchers in their starting rotation, and b) their GM's ability to steal another ace for the stretch run.  Despite a combined age that makes them eligible to be Anna Nicole Smith's next husband, Brown and Johnson continue to defy Mother Nature.  They are joined in the rotation this season by Helling, the Gillette Swamp Rats' gift to the Zoots for allowing them the privilege of owning Angel Pena for two weeks.  Paniagua and Kim form a very formidable one-two punch from the right-hand side, and I'm sure that the Zoots will get as much mileage out of Buehrle and Masaoka as they got from Yorkis Perez and B.J. Ryan last year.  The Zoots offense is very similar to last year, with Alfonzo, Palmeiro and Ordonez returning for a third straight year.  Caminiti could be this year's Luis Polonia, and the two outfield platoons should provide as much punch as last year's two outfield platoons.

Weaknesses: If you really want to get picky, you can point to the Zoots' middle relief.  You could also point to the rather ordinary stats of the starting pitching beyond Johnson and Brown.  Or maybe you could find fault in the many lopsided platoons that could be exploited by a smart opposing manager.  But in the end, the Zoots - like all good teams - always find a way to enhance their strengths while diminishing their weaknesses.

Outlook: Those (like me) who dream of a day when we can wake up in the morning with the comforting knowledge that the Zoots are not the reigning BDBL champs may have to wait another year for that glorious day to come.   The Zoots have enough pitching, enough offense, and enough tricks left up their sleeves to win this division once again.  And once they reach the playoffs, we are all too well aware of what happens when the Zoots throw Johnson and Brown in a short series.

Prediction: 1st place.  Paul Marazita, training at the foot of Yoda himself, learns a new set of Jedi mind tricks and unleashes them upon Dean Ashley of the Perth Breeze.  "You WILL trade Al Leiter to me," says Marazita with a wave of his hand.  "You WILL take Nate Rolison, Shane Spencer and this old smooshed-up Powerbar I found at the bottom of my dufflebag in return.  And you WILL be thankful for it."  The Zoots win the OLDS and their third consecutive Ozzie League title, but fall to the Akron Ryche in the BDBL World Series.  The long, nightmarish reign of the Stamford Zoots finally comes to a merciful end.  Marazita spends the entire winter blaming his defeat on the absence of Spencer's bat from the Zoots lineup.

MADISON FIGHTING MIMES

Owner: Brian Hicks
2000 Finish: 98-62 (2nd place, two heart-breaking wins away from knocking the Zoots out of the post-season.)
Projected rotation: David Wells, Kevin Millwood, Matt Herges, Elmer Dessens, Jose Mercedes and Willie Blair
Bullpen: Katz Sasaki, Bob Wickman, Kevin Walker, Manny Aybar and Tim Crabtree
Projected lineup: 1. Jose Vidro, 2. Brian Giles, 3. Jeff Kent, 4. Mark McGwire/Russ Branyan, 5. Gary Sheffield, 6. Benny Agbayani/Rickey Henderson, 7. Brooke Fordyce/Wiki Gonzalez, 8. Mike Benjamin/Jose Vizcaino

Strengths: For about 65 games this season, the Mimes will feature a lineup from one-to-five that can't be matched by any other team in the BDBL, including the mighty Chicago Black Sox.  Even during the 95 other games of the season, when McGwire will not be in the lineup, Madison's offense is still pretty devastating.  With McGwire, Madison has four hitters in the lineup with an OPS over 1.000.  No other team in the BDBL can claim this remarkable feat.  Wells and Millwood will provide a ton of quality innings (486 to be exact.)  And the bullpen, headed by AL Rookie of the Year Sasaki, is very solid.

Weaknesses: Even if you replace Matt Stairs' bat with Vidro's, Madison's offense still pales in comparison's to last year's team.   Especially when you consider that McGwire will be out of action for most of the season.  Once you get past the first five hitters in the lineup, the bottom four are not very Mimes-like at all.  While Wells and Millwood should keep the Mimes in the game, neither one of them put up numbers that would make you lose sleep at night.   Herges posted outstanding numbers, but in only half a season.  And the rest of the rotation is pretty bleak.

Outlook: The Madison Fighting Mimes put up a helluva fight in 2000, but came up just short of their goal.  This season, the battle won't be any easier.  If the Mimes do get into the playoffs, where they can use McGwire and Herges as full-time players, they will be a force to be reckoned with.

Prediction: 2nd place.  Frustrated by another disappointing season, David Wells blames it all on the Madison fans, proclaiming they "suck big-time."  Mark McGwire, as usual, threatens to retire.  Gary Sheffield pouts.  And Rickey Henderson spends the final week of the season playing cards in the clubhouse with Benny Agbayani.

BEAR COUNTRY JAMBOREE

Owner: Matt Clemm
2000 Finish: 82-78 (2nd place in the EL Person Division)
Projected Rotation: Kris Benson, Brad Radke, Hideo Nomo, Jamie Wright and Mark Gardner
Bullpen: Turk Wendell, Todd Jones, Doug Henry, Felix Heredia and Chris Brock
Projected Lineup: 1. Kenny Lofton, 2. Ray Durham, 3. Alex Rodriguez, 4. Jim Thome, 5. Rondell White, 6. Phil Nevin, 7. Dave McCarty/Stan Javier, 8. Benito Santiago/Eddie Taubensee

Strengths: A very, very solid all-around ballclub with very few "weak links."  The Bear Country pitching rotation is not the best rotation in the league.  It's not even the best rotation in the division.  But it is very solid from one to four.  Benson and Radke are legitimate aces, and Nomo, Wright and Gardner are hardly push-overs.  The bullpen has three pitchers with more than 60 innings and sub-4.00 ERA's.  Again, none of these relievers are jaw-dropping closers, but they all should be capable of getting the job done.  The Bear Country lineup is also very solid from one-to-seven.  With Lofton and Durham setting the table for A-Rod, Thome, White and Nevin, this team should score some runs. 

Weaknesses: This team should score some runs, but not as many runs as division rivals Stamford or Madison.  That means their pitching staff would have to be head-and-shoulders above the staffs of those two teams in order to come close to a playoff spot.  Unfortunately for the Jamboree, it isn't.

Outlook: If the Jamboree still played in the Person Division, they would most likely be the favorites to win the division.   Hell, if the Jamboree played in the Higuera or Griffin Divisions they would probably be the favorites.  But Matt Clemm wanted the chance to meet his main rival, Jeff Paulson, in the playoffs.  So the Jamboree were moved to the toughest division in the BDBL.  Clemm's wish may come true this season if everything falls into place.  The fate of this division may depend upon which team's GM makes the best mid-season deals.  We've already seen what Marazita and Hicks are capable of doing at the trade table.  Clemm's talents as a GM remain to be seen.

Prediction: 3rd place.  Alex Rodriguez agrees to take a $9.9 million pay cut every year for the remainder of his contract.  "I'm a single guy, playing a kid's game for a living," explains Rodriguez.  "What would I possibly do with $10 million?  No one could ever spend that kind of money in one year.  I'm not even home to enjoy that money nine months out of the year.  Besides that, I make more than enough money on the side, doing promotions and endorsements.  What's important to me is that we do well as a team, not how much money I make.  So I'd like to give that $9.9 million back to management, and let them use that money to build us a winner."

BOWLING GREEN SPOILERS

Owner: Mark Ross
2000 Finish: 74-86 (2nd place, Benes Division)
Projected rotation: Curt Schilling, Chuck Finley, Orlando Hernandez, John Halama and Eric Gagne
Bullpen: Paul Shuey, John Rocker, Antonio Alfonseca, Rick Aguilera, Buddy Groom and Russ Springer
Projected lineup: 1. Mike Cameron, 2. Damion Easley, 3. Mark Grace, 4. Brian Jordan/Garret Anderson, 5. Reggie Sanders/Jacque Jones, 6. Greg Zaun/Henry Blanco, 7. Placido Polanco/Matt Williams, 8. Mike Bordick

Strengths: For the third year in a row, Bowling Green carries into the season one of the best pitching staffs and defenses in the league.  Schilling, Finley and Hernandez form one of the best (if not THE best) pitching trios in the league.  Defensively, Bowling Green could (if they wanted to completely sacrifice their offense) start a player at every position with a range rating of "Vg" or "Ex".

Weaknesses: The Spoilers finished last in the BDBL in runs scored last season, and that is almost guaranteed to happen again this season.  Bowling Green scored 664 runs last season, and I'd be shocked if the 2001 edition scores more than 650.  The Spoilers pitching staff allowed 722 runs last season, so in order to break even this year, the Spoilers staff will have to shave 72 runs off of that total.  This pitching staff is good...but not that good.

Outlook: I'm afraid that until Mark Ross concedes that hitting is a necessary evil of the 21st century, the Spoilers franchise is doomed to finish in the second division.  The Spoilers have played in three different divisions for the past three years.  Unfortunately, the competition gets tougher and tougher with each move.

Prediction: 4th place.  In an effort to tailor the game to fit the Spoilers style of play, Mark Ross petitions the Commissioner's Office to replace the official baseballs used by the BDBL with the "dead ball" used in the early 1900's. 

SALEM COWTIPPERS

Owner: Mike Glander
2000 Finish: 93-67 (1st place, another first-round elimination in the playoffs)
Projected rotation: Mike Mussina, Bruce Chen, Frank Castillo, Pedro Astacio and Eric Milton
Bullpen: Derek Lowe, Mike Myers, Anthony Telford, Jeff Zimmerman, Adam Bernero and Geraldo Guzman
Projected lineup: 1. Randy Velarde, 2. Lance Berkman/Adam Piatt, 3. Jeff Bagwell, 4. Bobby Abreu, 5. Sammy Sosa, 6. Travis Fryman, 7. Scott Hatteberg/Keith Osik, 8. Damian Jackson/Benji Gil

Strengths: A parade of heavy lumber from two-to-six, a suffocating righty/lefty bullpen combo and the deepest starting rotation in the division.  Bagwell, Abreu and Sosa are one of the toughest trios of hitters in the BDBL (trailing only Madison's trio of Kent, Giles and Sheffield and Chicago's three-headed monster of Garciaparra, Delgado and Ramirez.)  The fact that last year's ace, Eric Milton, has become the rotation's #5 pitcher shows just how much this rotation has improved (or how far Milton has fallen.)  Not many teams can boast of a #5 pitcher who placed in the top-five in the American League in opposition OBP and baserunners per nine.   Mussina becomes Salem's first "sure thing" starter since Greg Maddux.  And Chen and Castillo combined (272 IP, 228 H, 102 BB, 216 K, 3.44 ERA) make one very good pitcher.  Lowe and Myers SHOULD get the job done in late innings (although that is never a guarantee with any Salem reliever.)  And Velarde (Ex range), Jackson/Gil (Vg) and Sosa (Vg) give Salem great up-the-middle defense.

Weaknesses: Last season, the Cowtippers had probably the deepest bench in the history of baseball.  That bench helped Salem win a ton of games in late innings.  This season, Salem has very few options in the late innings.  They will have to rely upon good timing and the big inning in order to score runs.  The bullpen is also significantly weaker than last year's, and with only 997 innings available from their starters, they will have to rely upon that bullpen fairly often.

Outlook: The Cowtippers could have easily gone a different direction this season.  With Sean Burroughs, Mark Teixeira, Bobby Hill, Hee Choi, Berkman and Piatt all due to explode upon the Major League scene within the next two years, Salem could have easily conceded defeat this season and prepared for their day in the sun.  But when the Salem Cowtippers see an opportunity to win another division title and lose another OLDS, they grab it with both hands.  The 2001 Cowtippers are much, much better than they would have been had they not made their BDBL-record seventeen trades this off-season.  Are they good enough to finally advance to the championship series?  Time will tell.

Prediction: 1st place.  Halfway through the season, Salem and Marlboro decide to swap their entire 35-man rosters.  One chapter later, they swap them back.  Salem goes on to win their division by one game, but fall once again to the Los Altos Undertakers in the OLDS, as Matt Walbeck wins the OLDS MVP award by driving in a series-high eleven runs.  Mike Glander finally accepts Brian Hicks' long-standing offer of providing free mental health care.

MARLBORO HAMMERHEADS

Owner: Ken Kaminski
2000 Finish: 79-81 (3rd place in the Butler Division)
Projected Rotation: Javier Vazquez, Glendon Rusch, Adam Eaton, Tony Armas, Julian Tavarez and Blake Stein
Bullpen: Robb Nen, Rick White, Juan Acevedo, Mike Fetters, Mike Timlin, Tom Martin, Matt Mantei and Dennys Reyes
Projected Lineup: 1. Mark Loretta/Mark Grudzielanek, 2. Jorge Posada, 3. John Olerud/Jeff Conine, 4. Ellis Burks/Timo Perez, 5. Tim Salmon, 6. Geoff Jenkins, 7. Aaron Boone, 8. Julio Lugo

Strengths: Depth.  Thanks to a draft strategy and team-building philosophy that stresses quantity over quality, the Hammerheads have probably the deepest roster in the BDBL.  Depth in the rotation, depth in the bullpen and depth on the bench.  The Hammerheads are tailor-made for the manager who likes to change his players often.  And who better to manage this team than a guy who changes his mind more often than he changes his underwear? 

Weaknesses: I hate to say it, but the Hammerheads really don't have that many glaring weaknesses.  Other than Nen (who will most likely be traded by the time you read this), Marlboro really doesn't have any dominating full-time players.  Nevertheless, this team should put up good numbers as a whole.  This is the type of team that needs to be managed properly in order to succeed.  Is The Shark capable of managing properly?  Well...that remains to be seen.

Outlook: In Ken Kaminski's first full season as owner of the Hammerheads (hopefully?), Marlboro should compete for the division title all season.  It will be a very close race, and I predict the wild card team will come from the Benes Division.  I give the slight edge to the Cowtippers, which means the Hammerheads win the OL wild card in a tight race with the Madison Fighting Mimes and Bear Country Jamboree.

Prediction: 2nd place.  Game One of the OL Division Series is delayed for 35 minutes as The Shark ponders whether or not to bunt in the first inning.  Fortunately, this delay gives Paul Marazita enough time to drive to Marlboro, smack Kaminski in the head, and hit the "1" key for him.

PERTH BREEZE

Owner: Dean Ashley
2000 Finish: 70-90 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Al Leiter, Jim Parque, Dave Burba, Kenny Rogers and Steve Sparks
Bullpen: Roberto Hernandez, Jose Jiminez, Kerry Ligtenberg, Terry Adams, Doug Jones, Chuck McElroy and Tanyon Sturtze
Projected Lineup: 1. Delino DeShields, 2. Craig Biggio/Jay Canizaro, 3. Mike Piazza, 4. Tony Batista, 5. Richard Hidalgo, 6. Glenallen Hill/Derek Bell, 7. Derrek Lee/Shane Andrews, 8. Kevin Elster/Alex Gonzalez

Strengths: Back in the days when Tim Zigmund was GM of this franchise, using a #1 overall draft pick on a pitcher would have been unthinkable.  But for the first time in this franchise's history, the Breeze have a legitimate ace at the top of their rotation thanks to new GM Dean Ashley.  What was once the long-standing weakness of this franchise - pitching - has turned into somewhat of a strength. The rotation beyond Leiter is serviceable, and the bullpen is surprisingly solid.  This team should murder left-handed pitching with Andrews (1.099 OPS), Elster (.934), Hidalgo (1.009), Hill (.964) and Piazza (1.275) all posting dominant numbers.

Weaknesses: The lineup, as always, is first-rate, but the front and back ends aren't as impressive as they have been in past years thanks in part to the inexplicable collapse of Biggio.  Last year, Tony Batista was the #8 hitter in the lineup.  This year, it's Kevin Elster.  The starting pitching beyond Leiter is less impressive than the rotations of division rivals Salem and Marlboro.

Outlook: This franchise has made great strides with the revolutionary introduction of quality pitching.  However, the Breeze are still a player or two away from contending in this division.  That said, Perth is not going to roll over and make it easy for the other teams in this division.  In fact, they may have enough talent to surprise some people (including me) and win this division.

Prediction: 3rd place.  Inspired by the Aussie-based "Survivor II", Dean Ashley forms an alliance to vote Paul Marazita (a.k.a. "The Rich Hatch of the BDBL") out of the league.  The result is a 23-1 vote in favor of Marazita's expulsion.  However, when Marazita (following in the footsteps of his hero, Al Gore) demands a recount of this vote, an exasperated Commissioner Glander decides to let him stay rather than face the inevitable lawsuits.

MANCHESTER IRISH REBELS

Owner: Jim Doyle
2000 Finish: 62-98 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Albie Lopez, Kerry Wood, Cal Eldred, Brian Meadows and Ryan Rupe
Bullpen: Lance Painter, Cory Lidle, Jeff Brantley, Scott Kamienicki, Paul Rigdon, Jerry Spradlin and Wayne Franklin
Projected Lineup: 1. Carl Everett, 2. Chipper Jones, 3. Todd Helton, 4. David Justice, 5. Moises Alou, 6. Charles Johnson, 7. Tim Bogar/Kevin Jordan, 8. Rey Ordonez/Felix Martinez

Strengths: Is this the same franchise that has finished 11th out of 12 teams in their league in runs scored for the past two seasons?  Hard to believe, but yes.  Returning from last year's 688-run team are Everett, Helton and Johnson.  Joining those three sluggers (each of whom posted career highs in nearly every category last season) are Jones, Justice and Alou.  It's hard to find a team with six better hitters than that.  Aside from the starters, Olmedo Saenz (.915 OPS) and Greg Colbrunn (.928) occupy the bench.  

Weaknesses: Just as it is hard to find a team with six better hitters, it is almost as difficult to find a team with an uglier pitching staff than this one.  Lopez is a decent pitcher, and would probably make a good #4 or #5 pitcher on most teams.  But on this team, he is the staff ace.  Eldred, Meadows and Rupe would have trouble finding work for any other team in the league, and even the legendary Wood would have trouble making the rotation for most teams based on last year's numbers.   And then...there is the bullpen.  When Lance Painter is your "closer", you know you're in trouble.  You want middle relief?  Of the middle relief corps of Lidle, Brantley, Franklin, Kamienicki, Rigdon and Spradlin, Lidle sports the lowest ERA at 5.03.  This pitching staff could break several BDBL records.  Unfortunately for Manchester, they would be the wrong kind of records.

Outlook: If BDBL history proves anything, it is that teams cannot succeed with hitting alone.  The Plattsburgh Champs tried it and failed.  The same goes for the Delafield Ogres/Minneapolis Haymakers franchise.   If history teaches us anything about our future, we can probably safely assume that Manchester will also fail with this strategy.  At least, that is, until Wood, Quevedo, Rupe, Bootcheck and Heilman come of age. 

Prediction: 4th place.  In a typical game against division rival Salem, Manchester trails by a score of 26-24 heading into the bottom of the ninth.  Manchester manager Jim Doyle calls upon pinch hitter Al Del Greco, who kicks a 52-yard field goal to give Manchester a stirring victory.

LOS ALTOS UNDERTAKERS

Owner: Jeff Paulson
2000 Finish: 104-56 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Chan Ho Park, Woody Williams, Shawn Estes, Scott Elarton and Ismael Valdes
Bullpen: Jeff Tam, Jim Mecir, Scott Williamson, Mike Remlinger and Matt Whisenant
Projected Lineup: 1. Rich Aurilia/Ramon Martinez, 2. Larry Walker/Eric Davis, 3. Albert Belle, 4. Brad Fullmer, 5. Paul Konerko, 6. Brent Mayne/Matt Walbeck, 7. Danny Bautista/Orlando Palmeiro, 8. Pokey Reese

Strengths: Surprise, surprise.  For the third year in a row - despite trading away Trevor Hoffman, John Rocker, Antonio Osuna and Mike Venafro this winter without getting one reliever in return - the Los Altos Undertakers have the best bullpen in the Ozzie League.  Unlike past years, however, the 2001 Undertakers also have a strong starting rotation.  If Jeff Paulson can turn Tom Candiotti, Dennis Martinez and Masato Yoshii into pitching aces, just wait and see what he does with decent starters like Park and Williams.

Weaknesses:  Unusually poor defense, especially in the infield where two "Pr"-ranged fielders man the corners.  Offensively, it's hard to imagine how this team will break 700 runs scored.  And if this team does score 700 runs, it's hard to imagine how they will win more than 85 games.  So why on earth am I predicting a first-place finish for a team that can't possibly win 85 games given my projections?  Three reasons: a) I simply refuse to make the same mistake three years in a row, b) if the Undertakers always do the opposite of what I predict they'll do, then I won't have to face them in the playoffs if this pattern continues, and c) never, ever, underestimate the power of Jeff Paulson to squeeze blood from a stone.

Outlook: I have predicted a last-place finish for the Los Altos Undertakers for the past two years, and they have won two division titles and a BDBL-best 203 games during that time.  For two years, I have been unconvinced that the Undertakers had enough starting pitching to win their division.   This year, I believe they finally do.  Only now, I'm not convinced that they can possibly put together enough offense to compete.  Then again, I wasn't totally convinced that my team could be beaten in a short series last November by a lineup that included Terry Shumpert, Jerry Hairston, Darrin Jackson, Brent Mayne and Shawon Dunston.   So I'm pretty sure there is no way to predict what this team will do simply by looking at them on paper.

Prediction: 1st place.  Pokey Reese shocks the baseball establishment by hitting .350 with a .460 OBP and 99 stolen bases in 100 attempts.  Brad Fullmer and Paul Konerko also tear up the base paths, stealing 68 bases combined in 70 attempts.  Woody Williams wins 27 games, Shawn Estes wins the OL ERA title and Jeff Tam leads the league in saves.  The Undertakers face the Cowtippers in an OLDS rematch and easily dispose of them in four straight games.  But Fate being cruel as it is, the Undertakers once again lose the OLCS to the only team in the world that is able to produce more over-achievers: the Stamford Zoots.

LITCHFIELD LIGHTNING

Owner: Phil Geisel
2000 Finish: 102-58 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Darren Dreifort, Mac Suzuki, Denny Neagle, Pete Harnisch, Pat Hentgen and Wade Miller
Bullpen: Steve Karsay, Arthur Rhodes, Scott Strickland and Jeff Shaw
Projected Lineup: 1. Eric Young, 2. Gerald Williams, 3. Edgar Martinez, 4. Barry Bonds, 5. Preston Wilson, 6. Will Clark/Erubiel Durazo, 7. Mike Matheny/Jorge Fabregas, 8. Luis Lopez/Pat Meares

Strengths: The strongest offense in the division, and the uncanny ability of this franchise to succeed despite all obstacles.  With Bonds returning to full-time duty this season, the Lightning offense is probably as good as it has ever been - especially against right-handed pitching.  The bullpen is solid and well-balanced.

Weaknesses: The pitching staff - from one to ten - is only the third-best in the division.  None of the starters are dominating, and the relievers - with the exception of Rhodes - all have lopsided split stats that could be exploited.  The team needs a true #2 hitter, and the bottom third of the lineup is very weak.  Defensively, the Lightning will be starting Edgar at third base once again this season with Clark on board.  Despite the fact that Edgar always seems to play brilliant defense against your team, he actually didn't fare as well at third last year as perceived.  The team also lacks a right fielder, and the two center fielders have only "Fr" range. 

Outlook: Coming into the 2001 season, Phil Geisel ranks second (tied with the esteemed Paul Marazita) in career wins.  But it looks like the Lightning dynasty is coming to an end soon.  With no Grade A prospects on the horizon, this may be Litchfield's last chance to make the playoffs for quite some time.  The Lightning have given us many memorable post-season moments.  It will be a shame if this really is this franchise's last hurrah.

Prediction: 2nd place.  Frustrated with finishing second to the Undertakers once again, Geisel goes on a rampage.  He pins Gerald Williams to his garage with his Jeep, slugs Pat Hentgen with a baseball bat, sprains Denny Neagle's ankle by dragging him through the streets, challenges Luis Lopez to a roadside fist-fight and rips Mike Matheny's shirt.  He then changes his name back to "Kevin Lowary" and becomes a roadie for the "Milli Vanilli Reunion Tour."  (Note: each of these predictions is based upon an actual event.)

NEW MILFORD BLAZERS

Owner: Billy Romaniello
2000 Finish: 52-108 (4th place...again)
Projected Rotation: Greg Maddux, Jeff D'Amico, Robert Person, Brad Penny, Tim Wakefield and Dwight Gooden
Bullpen: Danny Graves, Dave Veres, Curt Leskanic, Mike Stanton and Mark Guthrie
Projected Lineup: 1. Luis Castillo, 2. Jason Kendall, 3. Cliff Floyd, 4. Jose Valentin, 5. Paul O'Neill, 6. Herbert Perry, 7. Darryl Ward/Marvin Benard, 8. Eric Karros

Strengths: Maddux and D'Amico are legitimate aces and Person isn't far behind.  This year's staff is even better than last year's, when I predicted the Blazers would place third thanks to the starting pitching of Alex Fernandez, Jose Rosado, Chuck Finley and Kenny Rogers.   (Unfortunately, Blazers pitching coach Ron Guidry somehow managed to screw up those four pitchers so much, they combined for a 5.15 ERA while with the Blazers.)  The bullpen, unlike last season, is very solid and very deep.  Castillo and Kendall are excellent table-setters, and Floyd and Valentin give this team the pop it hasn't had in a long time.

Weaknesses: The remainder of the rotation beyond the first three is downright awful.  If Penny, Wakefield and Gooden win ten games combined, it will be a miracle.  While the offense is vastly improved from last season, it is still one of the weakest in the league.  I project less than 700 runs from the starting lineup, which isn't going to cut it.  Once you get past the first four hitters in the lineup, it's pretty much smooth sailing the rest of the way.  And if you're throwing a lefty against this team, you really only have to worry about three of them.

Outlook: The New Milford Blazers are vastly improved from last year.  Of course, after losing 100 games two years in a row, they had nowhere to go but up.  Since last season, the Blazers have added Kendall, Floyd and Valentin to the worst offense in the league, and Graves, Leskanic, Stanton and Guthrie to the worst bullpen in the league.  Unfortunately, they are still several players shy of contending.  Will this team finish in last place again?  Not a chance.  Will this team lose 100 games again this season?  I doubt it.  Will they finally reach the .500 mark?  Possibly.  Will they contend for the division title?  Not likely.  But at least now they are headed in the right direction.

Prediction: 3rd place.  The town of New Milford holds a ticker-tape parade for the heroic Blazers after the team breaks the .400 mark for the first time in franchise history.  The parade is attended by several former Blazers, most of whom are now working as analysts for ESPN.

GILLETTE SWAMP RATS

Owner: John Bochicchio
2000 Finish: 68-92 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Paul Abbott, Andy Ashby, John Burkett, Rolando Arrojo and Jose Lima
Bullpen: Jeff Nelson, Bobby Chouinard, Mike Trombley, Hector Carrasco, Steve Rain and Rheal Cormier
Projected Lineup: 1. Rafael Furcal, 2. Johnny Damon, 3. Andres Galaragga, 4. Darrin Fletcher, 5. Juan Gonzalez, 6. Al Martin/Bill Spiers, 7. Geoff Blum/Craig Paquette, 8. Geoff Blum/Craig Paquette

Strengths: Furcal and Damon are great table-setters for Galaragga, Fletcher and Gonzalez.  And Nelson is a pretty good middle reliever.  Other than that, I'm afraid there's not a lot of strengths to report.

Weaknesses: The starting rotation is without a doubt the most dismal in the entire BDBL.  Abbott isn't bad, but he's no #1 pitcher.  Gillette fans should probably bring their extra-fluffy seat cushions to Swampland Park when Ashby (4.92 ERA), Burkett (4.89), Arrojo (5.63) and Lima (6.65) pitch, because they'll be in those seats for a long, long time (assuming they stay to witness the carnage.)  Galaragga, Fletcher and Gonzalez may be the weakest 3-4-5 hitters in the BDBL.  And the remainder of the lineup beyond Gonzalez is not pretty.

Outlook: Coming off a 92-loss season, and heading into a season faced with more than $13 million in penalties and $22 million tied up among Gonzalez, Ashby and Lima, it was assumed that this would be a rebuilding year for the Swamp Rats.  Instead, Gillette is behaving very much like a contender.  They rejected pre-season trade offers that would have stocked this team's farm with top-shelf talent.  They made pre-season deals that netted Angel Pena (who was released), Chouinard and Trombley (both free agents after this season.)  They spent their first $2 million in the free agent draft on a 40-year-old hitter and a "32 year old" pitcher (who is probably closer to 40 than 30.)  And they spent the remainder of their draft budget on veterans like Paquette (32 years old), Pratt (34), Carrasco (31), Cormier (34), Hal Morris (36), Jeff Reed (38) and Heathcliff Slocumb (35).  I hate to pick on John Bochicchio, because he's a very nice guy (and a fellow Yankee fan), but I really have no choice in the matter.

Prediction: 4th place.  Like Cal Ripken, the Gillette Swamp Rats break a record that was once thought to be unbreakable: the BDBL record for losses (114) in a season, currently held by division rival New Milford.  New Milford, seizing a unique opportunity to erase one of their many embarrassing records, goes on a mission in Chapter Six, sweeping all six games from Gillette.