November 1, 2004

2004 BDBL Playoff Preview

Last year, for the fifth year in a row, the BDBL World Series required the full seven games to determine the league champion.  Though that series was marred by ugly controversy, it was one of the more exciting World Series in league history, featuring two legendary managers and two dominant teams.

This year, we witness the return of both of those teams, and say hello once again to several familiar franchises from Novembers past.  In fact, this is the first year since the league's inception that the playoffs will feature not one franchise that hasn't made the playoffs before.

That's not to say, however, that every manager in the playoffs has been here before.  Making their sixth appearance in six seasons will be the Stamford Zoots, though without their usual fearless leader.  Taking the place of He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named is Andy Lurie, who won the lottery when he missed getting stuck with the Litchfield franchise by a matter of hours.

Facing the Zoots for the fourth time in league history will be the Salem Cowtippers, who are returning to the post-season party after taking a year's vacation, courtesy of Sharky Airlines.  Matching Salem's five post-season appearances is the Los Altos Undertakers, who are looking for their first-ever World Series appearance.  They'll be facing another new face in the crowd, Brian Potrafka, whose franchise was nearly shut out in four straight games by the Undertakers the last time these two teams met in November.

Over in that other league, the Allentown Ridgebacks, Chicago Black Sox and Southern Cal Slyme take a break from picking over the dead carcasses of the non-contending teams in the BDBL to play a little fall ball.  For the Ridgebacks, they are looking for an invitation to the World Series for the third year in a row.  Standing in their way is the SoCal Slyme, whose skipper has spent nearly the entire year half a world away, playing DMB in a tent in the desert.

The other ELDS match-up features the two teams that swapped Mark Prior for Scott Rolen, back when Prior was still a college boy.  Prior now takes his 24-1 record to the hill to face the MVP candidate Rolen in what promises to be an interesting match-up.

With controversies and loopholes now a distant memory, we focus on what really matters: the game on the field.  May the best team win.

Quick Links:
Los Altos vs. Ravenswood
Salem vs. Stamford
Southern Cal vs. Allentown
Chicago vs. Akron

Los Altos Undertakers vs. Ravenswood Infidels

How they match up overall:

How they got here:

The Undertakers came into the winter of 2004 with an offense that included Mark Loretta, Jose Valentin and little else, and a pitching staff comprised of Ryan Frankin, Odalis Perez and the traditional Los Altos collection of role players in the bullpen.  Yet somehow, working with that paltry foundation, GM Jeff Paulson was able to emerge with the winningest team in the BDBL.

What the Undertakers lacked in player assets, they made up for by having $33.2 million to spend in the auction/draft -- the fourth-highest total in the league.  Prior to the auction, there was some speculation as to how much money Eric Gagne would fetch as a free agent.  Typically, relievers aren't rewarded with huge salaries in the BDBL -- especially by Paulson, who has built a BDBL career out of building cheap bullpens with spare parts.  But Gagne is no typical reliever.  On the first day of the auction, Paulson won the bidding for Gagne at $7.5 million, topping the bids of four other teams.  It turned out to be the biggest bargain of the draft.

The Gagne signing, more than any other decision made by GM Jeff Paulson last winter, is what turned the Los Altos Undertakers into the #1 seed in the BDBL playoffs.  Paulson also signed Shawn Chacon on that first day of the auction (for $5 million), then struck gold on the final two days of the auction, nabbing Jim Thome for $7.5m and Jamie Moyer at $9.5m.  In all, the Undertakers spent $29.5 million (or 89%) of their $33.2m on four players in the auction.  It was money well spent.

The Undertakers added Jose Cruz and Adrian Beltre prior to the auction, then filled out the roster by picking up Billy McMillon, Curtis Leskanic, Matt Williams and Todd Hollandsworth (among others) in the draft.

Los Altos made just two trades during the season, loading up just prior to the annual deadline by swapping future considerations (Lyle Overbay, Mike Myers and assorted unmentionables) for Preston Wilson, Tim Wakefield, John Vander Wal and Julio Franco.

Ravenswood's path to the post-season began during the Brian Hicks Era, when the franchise's former GM acquired staff ace Johan Santana as a Chapter One free agent pick-up in 2002.  (Note: Santana was originally drafted by Allentown in 2001, but was released on Cutdown Day.)  Eric Chavez was acquired that same year (in exchange for Jeff Bagwell) from the Los Altos Undertakers, in a rare swap between two contending teams.  He also acquired Dontrelle Willis that year as a mid-season farm free agent.  Last year, Hicks traded for Ivan Rodriguez early in the year, then added Adam Dunn, Alex Cintron and Kelvim Escobar through a massive rebuilding effort later in the season.

When Brian Potrafka took over the reigns last winter, he made his mark through a few small trades, acquiring role players Garrett Stephenson, Frank Catalanotto, Dan Miceli and Eduardo Perez.  He also released four overpriced players, giving the Infidels $30.5 million to spend on Draft Day.  Then, like Paulson, Potrafka went on a spending spree.

The very first player in the very first lot, Carlos Delgado, was signed for $11 million.  Potrafka then bolstered the bullpen by purchasing two top-notch relievers, Paul Quantrill ($4m) and Damaso Marte ($6m.)  Luis Matos ($4.5) was then signed on the final day of the auction, giving Ravenswood $25.5 million worth of free agents.

In the draft, Potrafka continued to strengthen the bullpen, adding Ray King.  Then, during the season, Potrafka added Scott Williamson, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jeremi Gonzalez, Terry Adams, Aaron Boone and Erasmo Ramirez through trade.

What they've done this year:

The Undertakers had one of the most unusual seasons in league history.  Their offense posted a batting average (.248), OBP (.320) and slugging percentage (.414) below league average.  They also led the league in strikeouts, and stole fewer bases (18) in fewer attempts (24) than any other team in the league.  (This, coming on the heels of their record-setting stolen base performance of 2003.)  Yet, despite all of that, they somehow managed to score 755 runs -- good for fifth in the Ozzie League -- and win more games than any other team in the BDBL.

How on earth did they manage to do that?  Part of the reason was good clutch hitting.  The Undertakers were one of only three teams in the OL to score more runs (755) than they created (740.3).  As a team, they hit .267/.343/.444 (with an OPS 53 points higher than their overall average) with runners in scoring position.  With two outs and runners in scoring position, they were even better: .257/.352/.442.  And with a runner on third base, the Undertakers hit .292/.359/.462 as a team.

The strength of the Los Altos team, of course, was their pitching.  The Undertakers led the OL in ERA at 3.51 and allowed the fewest hits per nine (7.9) and lowest OPS (672) in the league.  Two Undertakers starters ranked #1 and #2 in the league in ERA: Jamie Moyer (2.56) and Tim Wakefield (2.89.)  Odalis Perez (3.83) gave them three of the top ten.

The Undertakers won eleven more games than the "Pythagorean formula" predicts.  A major reason for that is their record in one-run games (33-10).  And a big reason for that record is the mind-numbing performance of Eric Gagne.  In 85 innings, Gagne allowed just 24 hits (an average of only 2.5 per nine), one earned run, 15 walks, 132 K's, 62 saves and an ERA of 0.11.  It is virtually impossible for a pitcher to be more dominant than Gagne was this season.  He faced 289 batters and allowed only 36 of them to reach base, striking out nearly half (46%) of them.  Gagne inherited 30 runners this year, and allowed just three to score.

More than any other team in the BDBL, the Undertakers feasted off of teams in their own division.  They played .729 ball against these teams while posting a .634 winning percentage against teams outside of their division.   Remove the inter-league games (where they went 12-4), and the Undertakers were "just" a .615 team against the rest of the Ozzie League.

One other team in the Ozzie League played .615 ball against teams outside of their division, excluding inter-league play.  Yep, you guessed it: the Ravenswood Infidels.  Ravenswood was just 28-20 against teams in their division, and 6-10 against the Eck League.  But against all other teams, the Infidels were a combined 59-37 -- the exact same record as the Undertakers.

The Infidels offense benefited from a high number of walks (696 -- tops in the OL) and a high batting average on balls in play (.314, tops in the OL.)  Ravenswood ranked fourth in the OL in runs scored, though the difference between them and the fifth-ranked team (Los Altos) was more than 100 runs (117).  They also used the sacrifice bunt more than any other BDBL team (93), including 19 squeeze bunts -- which is a full dozen more than the next-highest total in the BDBL.

The Ravenswood pitching staff ranked third in the OL in ERA (3.97), led by three starters with sub-4.00 ERA's: Garrett Stephenson (11-4, 3.81), Johan Santana (16-10, 3.83) and Miguel Batista (14-12, 3.98.)  Rookie Jae-Wong Seo (14-5, 4.36) enjoyed a solid year, but another rookie, Dontrelle Willis (11-10, 5.36), was a major disappointment.  The two-headed bullpen monster of Paul Quantrill (2.13 ERA, 25 SV) and Damaso Marte (1.54 ERA, 10 SV) dominated for Ravenswood, while Danny Kolb (2.76) and Scott Williamson (3.42) performed well as setup men.

How they've done against each other this year: 

The Infidels held the season advantage over the Undertakers this year, winning 7 of 12 contests, while out-scoring Los Altos 61-42.   In three starts against the Undertakers, Santana was pummeled for 11 ER in 17+ innings.  Stephenson, Batista and Seo combined for a 1.55 ERA against Los Altos.   Seo was particularly successful, limiting the Undertakers offense to just 9 hits and no walks through 22+ innings.

Undertakers lefty starters (Moyer, Perez and Darrell May) were pounded by Infidels hitters for 60 hits and 30 walks allowed in 52+ innings, with a combined ERA of 5.13, while righty starters (Wakefield, Chacon and Ryan Franklin) held the Infidels to a 3.00 ERA over 27 innings.

Keys to the series:

The Undertakers own home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  How much of a factor will that be?  Los Altos played .638 ball at home versus .688 ball on the road.  At home, Los Altos hit just .236/.315/.377.   On the road, they hit .259/.327/.431.  The numbers for Undertakers pitchers split out similarly.  At home, opponents hit .235/.301/.357 against Los Altos pitching.  On the road, they hit .251/.316/.396.  As you can see, The Graveyard plays a bit like a pitcher's ballpark.

What that means in terms of this series is that we should see a lot of close games.  Which means -- theoretically -- it will be to the advantage of the team with the better bullpen.  In other words, advantage: Los Altos.

On the other hand, before the Undertakers can get to their bullpen, they'll need their starting pitchers to hold off the potent Infidels offense.  Two years ago, that's exactly what the Undertakers pitchers did to the Infidels franchise (then the Madison Fighting Mimes) in the Division Series.   Madison's offense (which was ranked fourth in the OL in runs scored) didn't score a run in the series until the third inning of Game Four -- and by then, it was all over.   Might we see a repeat of history?

Not likely, and here's why.  The Undertakers' best starting pitcher, and three of the team's four best starters, are all left-handed, and Ravenswood has absolutely smoked left-handed pitching all season.  Against southpaws, the Infidels hit .293/.390/.423 this season -- the third-best OPS against lefties in the OL.  In particular, Ivan Rodriguez led the Ozzie League in batting average (.444) and OBP (.545) against lefties, and ranked second in slugging (.669).

Of course, Los Altos has three right-handed options (Wakefield, Chacon and Franklin) to turn to if they should get spooked by those splits.   But do they really want to throw their "B" team in the playoffs?  And do they want to see those guys face the likes of Carlos Delgado (.345/.479/.765 vs. righties) and Eric Chavez (.333/.406/.504 vs. RH)?  Plenty of interesting decisions to be made, for sure.

Prediction:

These teams are much more closely matched than the standings page would indicate.  Ravenswood's offense gives them a distinct advantage, while Los Altos' bullpen provides an equally impressive advantage for them.  Both teams feature a dominant lefty ace and a strong rotation.

Because Ravenswood hits lefties so well, I believe they could take the Undertakers bullpen out of the game by putting them away early.   However, when teams are as evenly matched as these two, the winner is often the team that gets the clutch hits or lucky breaks when they need them.  Expect this one to go down to the wire.

Ravenswood in seven. 

Salem Cowtippers vs. Stamford Zoots

How they match up overall:

How they got here:

The story of how the 2004 Salem Cowtippers were put together was well-chronicled in the best-selling novel, "Monkeyballs."  The Reader's Digest version of that story is that the Cowtippers came into last winter with no pitching beyond Roger Clemens and Barry Zito, and a mediocre offense that included Lance Berkman, Jeff Bagwell, Ray Durham, and rookies Mark Teixeira and Sean Burroughs.  Three free agent signings and sixteen winter trades later, the Cowtippers roster had been completely transformed from top to bottom.

Among the players acquired through trade this past winter: Kerry Wood, Brandon Webb, J.T. Snow, Luis Gonzalez, Milton Bradley, Francisco Cordero and Bengie Molina.  The Cowtippers then made five more trades during the season, adding Placido Polanco, Eddie Guardado, Ron Villone, Bartolo Colon, Brett Boone and Marquis Grissom.

Trot Nixon, Curt Schilling and Michael Young were added through the auction, and Brian Buchanan was added during the draft.  In all, only eight players on Salem's current 25-man active roster were on the active roster at the end of the 2003 season.  Which, in Salem, isn't all that unusual.

As usual, Stamford's road to the post-season was not without its fair share of controversy.  The most notable, of course, was the Edmonds trade of last winter.  That trade (and the Chipper Jones trade, also completed last winter) freed up enough cap room for the Zoots to acquire two of the top offensive prizes in the '04 auction: Manny Ramirez (at $12m) and Jose Vidro ($8.5m.)  Woody Williams ($6m) was also added in the auction to provide badly-needed quality innings in the starting rotation.

The bulk of the '04 team was built during the 2003 season.  During the '03 auction, then-GM Paul Marazita placed a $3.5 million bid on David Ortiz, for no other reason than to drive up his price.  The move seemed to backfire on him when the bid was won.  But the Zoots ended up with the last laugh, as Ortiz has turned into the second coming of Mo Vaughn.  That same good fortune came into play in 2000, when Marazita took a Chapter Five flier on a rookie who had posted some decent numbers out of the bullpen as a middle reliever for the White Sox.  That rookie, Mark Buehrle, turned out to be Stamford's ace in 2004 and beyond.

The team's closer, Bung-Hole Kim, was acquired as a farm free agent in Chapter Four of the 1999 season, back when young relievers with gaudy credentials and MLB service time could still slip under the free agent radar of most teams in the league.  Moises Alou, Carlos Baerga, Jerome Williams and Scott Linebrink all came over as part of the "salary purge" trades of last winter, while co-closer Shiggy Hasegawa was acquired during one of 2003's many controversial Zoots/Blazers deals.

During the season, Stamford continued to add to their offensive arsenal, acquiring Larry Walker, Greg Myers, Steve Finley and Carlos Guillen in exchange for various spare parts.  When Andy Lurie took over the Stamford franchise in Chapter Four, one of his first acts as GM was to trade away Manny Ramirez in an effort to bolster the pitching staff.  Mike Mussina was added, along with Aramis Ramirez, giving the Zoots the four quality starters they needed for the post-season.

How they've done this year:

The story of the 2004 Butler Division race should really be broken into two pieces.  In the first two chapters, Stamford (36-20) outplayed Salem (31-25) by five games.  The rest of the way, Salem (73-31) outplayed Stamford (60-44) by thirteen games.

Salem struggled during the first two chapters due to their record in one-run games (9-12) and their inconsistent offense (.260/.343/.404).   From Chapter Three on, the Cowtippers seemed to turn it all around, posting a 22-10 record in one-run games and hitting .293/.375/.485 as a team.

Overall, the Cowtippers offense led the Ozzie League in batting (.282), OBP (.364) and runs scored (937), and ranked #2 in walks (689).  Seven Salem batters (with 200+ AB's) hit .300 or better.  Five different batters posted an OBP of .400 or greater.  And five different batters slugged better than .500.  Cowtipper batters posted the best K/BB ratio in the BDBL, and Salem base stealers were successful on 82% of their attempts.

The 2004 Cowtippers were supposed to feature one of the best starting rotations in league history.  Instead, Salem posted a 3.88 team ERA (2nd in the OL), and every starter in the rotation posted a BDBL ERA higher than his MLB ERA.  Of particular head-scratching curiosity was Curt Schilling, whose ERA of 4.57 was over a run and a half higher than his MLB ERA.

The bullpen wasn't immune from this strange phenomenon, either.  Guillermo Mota, the team's de facto closer coming out of spring training, posted a 4.03 ERA compared to his 1.97 MLB ERA.  And Eddie Guardado's 5.10 ERA was over 2.2 runs above his MLB ERA.

Despite the bullpen's shortcomings, however, Salem lost only three games when leading after seven innings, and were the best come-from-behind team in the league, winning 28 games when tied or trailing after seven.

The Stamford pitching staff ranked fourth in the OL with a 3.95 ERA, and the offense ranked third in the OL with 874 runs scored.  The trade of Manny Ramirez for Mike Mussina and Aramis Ramirez had the expected effect of reducing run production (5.7 runs/game before the trade, 5.0 runs/game after) and increasing run prevention (4.13 ERA before the trade, 3.60 after.)

Like the Undertakers, the Zoots scored more runs (874) than they created (860.2), in part because of uncanny clutch hitting (.310/.395/.471 with runners in scoring position.)  (Note: Salem also hit well in the clutch (.311/.393/.492), but scored 14.7 runs fewer than they created.)

Also, for the first time in league history, the Zoots owned a better record at home (50-30) than on the road (46-34.)

How they've done against each other this year:

Overall, Salem and Stamford split their season series at eight wins apiece.  On the season, Stamford outscored Salem 74-60, but strip away Chapter One, and Salem outscored Stamford 51-48.

Brandon Webb (23 IP, 16 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 14 K) and Bartolo Colon (26 IP, 22 H, 5 ER, 7 BB, 18 K) pitched well against the Zoots, but Barry Zito (22.2 IP, 27 H, 18 ER, 12 BB, 14 K) and Curt Schilling (19.1 IP, 30 H, 20 ER, 7 BB, 13 K) got spanked like a red-headed stepchild.

On the Stamford side, Woody (29 IP, 25 H, 7 ER, 6 BB, 15 K) and Jerome (19.2 IP, 14 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 21 K) Williams pitched well against Salem, while Mark Buehrle (24.1 IP, 26 H, 15 ER, 13 BB, 9 K) and Mike Mussina (30 IP, 25 H, 13 ER, 9 BB, 20 K) were clobbered.

Keys to the series:

Since the trade of Manny Ramirez, the Zoots are hitting a paltry .253/.319/.414 as a team against left-handed pitching.  The Cowtippers can throw Zito twice in the series if necessary, and Ron Villone (who miraculously compiled a 2.08 ERA through 52 innings as a Cowtipper this season) can start as well.

Another possible factor in this series could be team defense.  The Cowtippers led the Ozzie League in fielding percentage (.988) and committed just 71 errors on the season, while Stamford ranked ninth in fielding (.981), committed 114 errors and allowed 60 stolen bases in 86 attempts (69.8%).

One factor Stamford's favor is that Sam Adams Stadium is tailor-made for left-handed power hitters (+13% doubles, +36% triples, +6% homers), which should be of help to David Ortiz, Larry Walker and Steve Finley

One factor that hurts Stamford is losing Carlos Baerga, Greg Myers and Bung-Hole Kim for the Division Series due to overuse.  Losing Baerga (.331/.410/.423) will hurt the Zoots in late innings as a pinch-hitting option, while Myers (.278/.333/.383 as a Zoot) will need to be replaced by someone like Bobby Estalella (.152/.250/.283) or Brian Schneider (.214/.285/.325).  The biggest loss is Kim (11-4, 3.29 ERA), who could have been used as either a starter or reliever in this series.

Prediction:

Whenever these two teams get together (especially in the post-season) there's no way to predict what might happen.  In 1999, Stamford hit just .226/.293/.311 against Salem pitching, and were outscored 23-19 in the series, but won anyway.  In 2001, Salem swept their way into the Championship Series with a lineup that included seven all-stars and were swept right out of it by the Zoots.  In 2002, Salem captured their first OL title at the hands of Stamford when only two of Salem's twelve pitchers allowed a run to score off of them.

This year, who knows what the Baseball Gods have in store.  Though this match-up has lost a bit of the sex appeal it had in the past, it is still a tight battle between two evenly-matched teams.

Salem in six.

How the Championship Series may play out:

If Salem makes it past Stamford, they own a 7-5 record against both Ravenswood and Los Altos this season.  If Stamford beats Salem, they were 6-6 against Ravenswood and 7-5 against Los Altos.

Either way, the OLCS should be an evenly-matched contest.   At the risk of jinxing myself, I'll predict Salem in seven.

Southern Cal Slyme vs. Allentown Ridgebacks

How they match up overall:

How they got here:

The Southern Cal Slyme went into rebuilding mode for two full seasons, finishing dead-last in the BDBL in both the 2002 and 2003 seasons.   Those last-place finishes allowed them to pick up Kevin Brown with the first pick of the sixth round in '03, Matt Clement with the first pick of the second round in '04 and Jose Contreras with the first pick of the '03 farm draft.

During those two rebuilding seasons, Slyme GM Bob Sylvester added Vernon Wells, Joel Piniero and Edgar Renteria (among others) through salary dump trades.  Then, with his eye on the prize this past winter, Sylvester added Mark Redman, Josh Beckett and Octavio Dotel to a pitching staff that was already considered to be among the league's best.

In the 2003 auction, the Slyme added Edgar Martinez, Shannon Stewart and Todd Walker, and in '04, Southern Cal walked away with the top free agent catcher, Mike Lieberthal.

Throughout the course of the summer, the Slyme added a ridiculous amount of talent through trade, including Roy Halladay, Troy Percival, Jeff Bagwell, Esteban Loaiza, Jacque Jones, Mike Cameron and Luis Castillo.

Allentown's path to the 2004 playoffs was forged in the winter of 2002, when GM Tom DiStefano built a BDBL champion by trading for Barry Bonds and Manny Ramirez in the winter of '01, then adding Curt Schilling in the summer of that year.

Bonds left as a free agent after the '02 season, then returned last year when Mike Stein graciously traded the game's best player back to his old team in exchange for...Brad Wilkerson??  Schilling left after the '03 season, but was graciously replaced this past winter by Mark Mulder, who was acquired from Akron in exchange for...Geoff Jenkins?!?  Sidney Ponson was also acquired prior to the draft in exchange for Paul Lo Duca, Aaron Rowand and prospects.

Two of Allentown's starters -- Roy Oswalt (1st round, 2001) and Rocco Balls-smelly (a Chapter Four free agent pick-up in '02) -- are home-grown talents.  Allentown's biggest mid-season acquisitions all came at the Chapter Four deadline, when Sammy Sosa, Rod Beck, Sterling Hitchcock and Jody Gerut were added at the cost of assorted spare parts, prospects and leftover crumbs from the bottom of the DiStefano family's refrigerator.

How they've done this year:

The Slyme tied with the Salem Cowtippers for largest run differential, outscoring their opponents by 263 runs.  They led the entire BDBL in fewest runs allowed, yielding an average of just 3.8 runs per game.  Slyme pitchers posted a 3.32 ERA -- best in the BDBL -- thanks to the best starting rotation in the league: Roy Halladay (8-3, 3.16 ERA in 94 IP as a Slyme), Esteban Loaiza (11-1, 2.45 as a Slyme), Kevin Brown (19-8, 2.91), Joel Piniero (17-11, 3.07) and Mark Redman (9-12, 3.98).

The Slyme bullpen was equally brilliant.  Chad Bradford, Jose Contreras and Jose Valverde combined for a 1.57 ERA in over 137 innings of relief.  As a whole, the SoCal bullpen saved 72% of their opportunities (best in the EL), allowed just 28.9% of inherited baserunners to score (second in the EL) and blew just five games when leading after seven innings (second in the EL.)

Offensively, the Slyme were third in the EL in runs scored (870), led by remarkable efforts by Edgar Renteria (.335/.385/.504 with 52 doubles), Luis Castillo (.335/.391/.409), Edgar Martinez (.333/.456/.625 in 291 AB), Dmitri Young (.326/.401/.603 with 38 HR) and Derrek Lee (.315/.394/.561).

Both the Slyme and Ridgebacks feasted on the soft underbellies of their division and inter-league rivals this year, each going 32-16 in intra-division play and 10-6 against OL squads.  The two teams had nearly identical offensive performances as well.  Allentown scored one more run than Southern Cal, and the difference in OPS between the two teams was just .001.

The big difference between the two teams was pitching, where Allentown's fourth-ranked ERA of 4.14 was nearly a full run higher (0.82) than SoCal's.  As a team, the Ridgebacks allowed more hits than innings (an average of 9.3 per nine), and struck out just 6.9 batters per nine -- a far cry from the dominant Ridgebacks staffs of the past.

Of course, that all changes in the playoffs, when Roy Oswalt (8-3, 3.54 ERA in 140 IP) becomes a full-time pitcher.  Oswalt, Mark Mulder (15-9, 3.56) and Sidney Ponson (11-11, 3.38) formed a powerful trio of starters in the rotation, while SUS's Rod Beck (1.29 ERA), Will Cunnane (1.61), Jack Cressend (2.01) and John Parrish (2.74) did an excellent job of setting up closer Tim Worrell (3.40, 21 SV.)

How they've done against each other this year:

Against the Slyme, the Ridgebacks were 7-5 this season, outscoring them 68-57, including two shutouts.  Ponson was brutalized by SoCal hitting in three games this season (15.2 IP, 29 H, 13 ER, 6 BB, 4 K), but Oswalt (14 IP, 14 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 13 K) and Mulder (12.2 IP, 14 H, 4 ER, 6 BB, 9 K) enjoyed some success.

For Southern Cal, Halladay (24 IP, 22 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 20 K) and Brown (18.2 IP, 18 H, 6 ER, 8 BB, 19 K) enjoyed great success against the Ridgebacks, while Piniero (16.2 IP, 25 H, 10 ER, 9 BB, 18 K) and Redman (17 IP, 20 H, 10 ER, 5 BB, 11 K) didn't.  Loaiza didn't get a start against Allentown after coming over from Litchfield.

Keys to the series:

Who will the Ridgebacks start in Game Four?  Randy Johnson got just one start against the Slyme this year, and held them scoreless through 7 1/3.  But Johnson wasn't particularly impressive this year (4.52 ERA, 134 hits and 21 HR allowed in 123+ innings), and Southern Cal murdered southpaws (.315/.394/.501 -- best OPS against lefties in the BDBL), so he may not be the wisest choice.  Then again, there really aren't any other appetizing candidates on the R-Backs roster.  The only other options for that Game Four start are Jake Peavy (14-9, 5.47, 40 HR allowed in 199 IP), Jesse Floppert (7-6, 5.90) and Rick Reed (5-2, 4.83).  Sterling Hitchcock (3-0, 3.44 ERA as a Ridgeback) can also start, though he is also a lefty, and would be limited to five innings in the series.

Contrast that to the Slyme roster, where Josh Beckett (9-4, 4.49) likely doesn't get a chance to start.

The key to any Ridgebacks series, of course, is Barry Bonds.  Bonds batted .383 against Slyme pitching this year, with 8 homers and 16 RBI in 12 games.  He walked 10 times, but only two of those were intentional.   Judging by those numbers, Bob Sylvester might want to reconsider that strategy.

If Bonds is pitched around as often as he was in last year's World Series, the burden will fall on either Marcus Giles (.306, with 1 HR and 6 RBI in 12 games vs. SoCal this season) or Sammy Sosa (.297, with 4 HR and 12 RBI in 10 games vs. SoCal.)  Last year, the Ridgebacks lost the World Series because the player protecting Bonds in the lineup (Manny Ramirez) went 3-for-26 in the series.  Will Giles and/or Sosa choke as badly as Ramirez?

Prediction:

Oswalt can go toe-to-toe with any of the SoCal pitchers, and despite the fact that these two teams are evenly-matched offensively, you have to give the edge to the team with Barry Bonds in a short series.  Look for Allentown to take Game One, then.

From there, however, the Slyme far outclass the R-Backs when it comes to pitching match-ups.  The probable starters for the next three games are: Loaiza vs. Mulder in Game Two, Brown vs. Ponson in Game Three and Piniero vs. some pitcher-to-be-named in Game Four.  Match-ups like those cause grown men to listen to Meatloaf.

Slyme in five.

Chicago Black Sox vs. Akron R�che

How they match up overall:

How they got here:

The Chicago Black Sox came into last winter with what many believed to be the strongest team in the BDBL, including one of the league's strongest pitching staffs.  But after a series of winter trades, where GM John Gill traded away pitchers Carlos Zambrano and Josh Beckett, many BDBL pundits wondered whether or not Gill had just traded his team out of the playoff picture.  After all, we're told, baseball is all about pitching and defense.

But Gill had a different theory.  He believed that if you build a strong enough offense, a team could win with mediocre pitching.  And as long as the team still had Mark Prior at the top of the rotation, Chicago's pitching was anything but mediocre.  So, as he did in 2000, when the Black Sox won the EL championship with the league's top run-scoring offense, Gill loaded up on hitting.   He traded for Chipper Jones, Vlad Guerrero and Vernon Wells, adding them to a lineup that already included Nomar Garciaparra, Aubrey Huff, Jason Kendall and Aramis Ramirez.

The bulk of the Chicago lineup was acquired in trade.   Garciaparra was acquired prior to the 2000 season, in exchange for Miguel Tejada and Michael Barrett.  Ramirez and Kendall were both acquired in the winter of 2002.   Only Huff, a 2000 second-round farm pick, was born and raised a Black Sox.

At the '04 trading deadline, Gill added two weapons of mass destruction: Manny Ramirez (acquired, in effect, for Aramis Ramirez, Aaron Sele and Jose Acevedo in what has to be one of the biggest bargains ever) and Tim Hudson (acquired for prospect Victor Martinez.)

Where would the Akron Ryche be without their ace, Pedro Martinez, the first player ever to wear a Ryche uniform?  In most years, Martinez is the ace of a deep Akron pitching rotation.  This year, he is the only Akron starter with 150+ MLB innings and an MLB ERA under 4.44.  Scott Shields was acquired for Guillermo Mota last year, and Jason "Who" Davis was acquired for Marlon Anderson that same year.  It's unusual to see a team with the #23 pick in the draft pick up TWO starting pitchers (Jeff Weaver in the 6th round and Paul Wilson in the 11th) who account for 33% of the team's starts, and actually make it to the playoffs.  But that's exactly what Akron has managed to do.

The offense is led by Scott Rolen, who was acquired three years ago in exchange for Mark Prior.  In the '04 auction, Akron added Kenny Lofton for the princely sum of $5 million.  This summer, while battling the Cleveland Rocks for the wild card, the Ryche made just one trade, adding Scott Spiezio and Matt Mantei.

How they've done this year:

By now, the Chicago Black Sox's strange path to the playoffs has become the stuff of BDBL legend.  In what has to be the quirkiest one-chapter record of all time, the Black Sox went 8-20 in Chapter One despite heading into the season as the favorite to win their division.  From that point on, however, Chicago played better than any other team in the BDBL, winning at a .712 clip -- five games better than any other team.

Not only were the Black Sox the only team in the BDBL to score over 1,000 runs this season, but they scored 104 runs more than the next-best team!   Besides runs scored, Chicago led the entire BDBL in OBP (.365), slugging (.504), home runs (244) and fewest strikeouts (891).  Vladimir Guerrero (.354/.437/.614) posted Babe Ruth Award-type numbers.  He, combined with Vernon Wells (.342/.376/.616), Aubrey Huff (.338/.388/.654) and Manny Ramirez (.382/.460/.750 in 204 AB) gave the Black Sox four hitters with slugging percentages above .600 and batting averages above .330.

After Ramirez was added just prior to the deadline, Chicago hit .296/.368/.515 as a team, and averaged 6.5 runs per game.

This team wasn't all about hitting, though.  The '04 Black Sox ranked fifth in the EL in ERA (4.46) and featured a rotation fronted by Cy Young candidate Mark Prior (24-1, 3.46 ERA, 270 K's in 226+ IP) and Tim Hudson (6-4, 2.69 ERA as a Black Sox.)

Chicago's one weakness was a lack of a true closer.   Kyle Farnsworth led the Black Sox in saves (23), but owned a 4.78 ERA, a WHIP of 1.33 and an opponent's OPS of 714.  Ugueth Urbina (3.18 ERA in 62+ IP) was the team's best reliever, but no other reliever finished with an ERA under 3.50.

Chicago's weakness was one of the Akron Ryche's greatest strengths.  Akron's bullpen featured two pitchers (Matt Mantei and Tim Spooneybarger) with ERA's under 2.00.  Ron Mahay also contributed 46+ innings and a 2.53 ERA.

But Akron's biggest asset, of course, was their ace, Pedro Martinez.  Martinez shattered the BDBL single-season ERA record at 1.81, and allowed a mind-boggling 127 hits in 204+ innings -- an average of just 5.6 per nine.

As a team, the Ryche ranked third in ERA at 4.01, fourth in runs scored with 859, and second in fielding percentage at .986.  Like Chicago, Akron enjoyed a surge of winning late in the season.  The Ryche won 51 games after the all-star break, which was more wins than any other EL team except for Southern Cal (57) and Chicago (54).

How they've done against each other this year:

Chicago won 9 out of 16 games between these two teams this year, though they were outscored by the Ryche 75-73.  Though three of those losses came during Chicago's bizarre Chapter One, three more were recorded during the final chapter of the season.  In between, Chicago won seven of the eight games that were played in Chapters Two and Five.

All four of Chicago's pitchers were beat up by Akron hitting this year: Prior (25.2 IP, 28 H, 11 ER, 7 BB, 31 K), Hudson (29 IP, 19 H, 10 ER, 6 BB, 30 K), Ben Sheets (18.2 IP, 20 H, 9 ER, 5 BB, 14 K) and Brad Penny (26.1 IP, 28 H, 13 ER, 8 BB, 22 K).

And all four of Akron's starters were roughed up a bit by Chicago as well. Pedro Martinez lasted only until the third inning in two of his three starts against Chicago this year (13 IP, 12 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 15 K in total.)  Scott Shields (19.2 IP, 20 H, 11 ER, 3 BB, 12 K), Jason "Who?" Davis (23.2 IP, 28 H, 14 ER, 3 BB, 8 K) and Paul Wilson (12.1 IP, 18 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 3 K) had inconsistent performances against the Black Sox.

Keys to the series:

Can Akron's pitching -- or any pitching staff for that matter -- stop Chicago's hitting?  That's really the only question that Ryche fans need to wonder about in this series.  In the 2000 series, when Chicago's lineup was as ridiculously loaded as this year's lineup, the Black Sox rolled into the Championship Series in four games (in a best-of-five series), and nearly swept the series with a two-run blast by Carlos Delgado in the ninth.

The big difference between that '00 Chicago team and the '04 team is that Todd Ritchie was the ace of that '00 staff and Mark Prior is the ace this year.  Just a tiny bit of difference there.

Prediction:

It's hard to imagine how a team with a rotation that includes Jason "Who?" Davis and Paul Wilson can make it as far as the post-season -- never mind advance any further than that.  But stranger things have happened in the BDBL.  Expect Chicago's ridiculously potent offense to manhandle Akron pitching once they get past Pedro in Game One.

Prior gives Chicago a fighting chance to stay in the game against Martinez in Game One, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see Akron pull that one off.  Chicago's offense is simply too overpowering for any pitching staff, however, so expect this one to be over relatively quickly.

Chicago in five.

How the Championship Series may play out:

Look for Southern Cal and Chicago to play in what should be the most exciting, action-packed post-season series in league history.  I'm hard-pressed to think of any playoff series that involved two more dominating teams.   SoCal owned a 7-5 record against the Black Sox this year, but that doesn't mean their job will be easy by any means.  If these two teams meet, it will be a match-up of one of the league's best-ever pitching staffs against one of the league's best-ever lineups.  And it just doesn't get any better than that.

Prediction: Chicago in seven.

How the World Series may play out:

Let's face it: It doesn't matter who wins the Ozzie League championship this year.  The Eck League is walking away with the trophy this year without breaking a sweat.  After watching Chicago, Southern Cal and Allentown step all over each other on the way to the trade table all summer long, those three teams are stacked beyond belief.

But then again, crazy things often happen in a short series...

Prediction: Chicago in seven.