January 26, 2005

2005 Season Preview

Last year, we learned that in order to take home the grandest of all grand prizes, all you have to do is be invited to the party.  As I type, all but two or three of the twenty-four teams in the BDBL truly believe they will be party-going this November.  We all know, however, that all but eight of those teams are completely delusional.  My goal today is to separate the righteous from the delusional.

As is the case every year, the following assessments and predictions are made without a net.  As per league rules, I do not simulate any seasons using the league disk, and I do not perform any sort of complicated formulas to gauge a team's strengths and weaknesses.  I derive my supernatural powers of prediction simply through gut feeling, general eyeballing and a well-worn Ouija board.

Every season presents new challenges, and this year, a few new wrinkles have been thrown into the laundry pile.  For starters, we now have an in-season luxury tax that is designed to severely reduce the number of lopsided stars-for-prospects trades we've seen all too often in the past.  We also have new penalties and rewards in place to encourage success and discourage failure.  Will these new measures measure up?  Probably not, but it will be interesting to find out.

Before previewing the coming season, let's take a look at some of my predictions from last year:

• Of the six division races, I correctly picked five division winners (missing only the Higuera Division, where I predicted Kansas to win it all.)
• I predicted a World Series match-up between the Cowtippers and Slyme and went 0-for-2 on that one.
• I predicted the Gillette Swamp Rats would wildly overspend in the 2005 auction, yet they turned out to be downright prudent.
• I predicted that Silicon Valley's trade of Barry Zito for Casey Kotchman would look much different today than it did at the time.  I imagine that's probably accurate.
• I predicted the Great Lakes Sphinx would tie the New Milford Blazers' record with five straight 90-loss seasons, and unfortunately for Scott, they did.
• I predicted that Akron would trade Pedro Martinez to an evil Sith.  Okay, so that didn't happen.
• My best prediction: "By August 1st, the Irish Rebels will fall out of the race.  By August 2nd, Jim Doyle will devise a completely new team-building strategy for 2005."  Granted, that one was a gimme.
• My worst prediction: a 3rd-place finish for the Zoots.  "The Zoots will eventually unload some salary and some talent in an effort to rebuild, and will finish with just enough wins to avoid a Rule 7.16 penalty."  Wishful thinking, I guess.
• My funniest prediction: "Once again, Los Altos runs away with their division.  Once again, Jeff Paulson's (bleep) doesn't work in the playoffs."  So sad, and yet so true.

As you can see, there were a few hits and a whole lot of misses.  And yet, I predict with 100% certainty that you'll feel compelled to read my predictions for the coming season, even with the knowledge that these predictions are spotty at best.

In league-wide polling, by the way, the league correctly picked all six division winners.  Maybe I should take that Ouija board into the shop to be looked at.

Jump to:
Higuera | Person | Hrbek | Butler | Benes | Griffin

Salem Cowtippers

Owner: Mike Glander
2004 Record: 104-56 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux and Barry Zito.
Bullpen: Francisco Cordero, Juan Cruz, Rudy Seanez, Bruce Chen, Scott Dohmann and Aaron Fultz.
Projected Lineup: Mark Loretta (2B), Michael Young (SS), Ivan Rodriguez (C), Lance Berkman (CF), Mark Teixeira (1B), Trot Nixon/Jay Payton (RF), Jose Hernandez/Craig Monroe (LF) and Sean Burroughs (3B).

Strengths: Schilling and Clemens own a combined 3.12 ERA over 441 innings, forming the best one-two combo in the Ozzie League.  Maddux is a solid #3, the bullpen is very strong and balanced, and the top five batters in the Salem lineup created 582.2 runs combined in MLB '04 -- the second-highest total in the BDBL (trailing only the mighty Hippos.)

Weaknesses: As you may have heard, Zito had an off-year last year.  Even so, as #4 starters go, he's not too shabby.  The lineup is a little platoon-heavy toward the bottom, which may open up this team to some late-game exploitation.  And the rotation could use an inning-eating #5 starter.

Outlook: The Cowtippers are poised to return to the playoffs for the sixth time in seven seasons.  Whether or not they can capture the division crown for the sixth time in seven seasons remains to be seen, as the competition has never been tougher.

Prediction: 1st place.  Schilling and Clemens become the first pair of 20-game winners in Salem history, and Ivan Rodriguez wins the OL MVP.  Salem then gets swept out of the Division Series in four games, as Schilling and Clemens surrender ten runs each in the first innings of their starts.

New Milford Blazers

Owner: Billy Baseball and Anthony Peburn
2004 Record: 78-82 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Zack Greinke, Orlando Hernandez, Jose Lima, Mike Hampton, Horacio Ramirez and Vicente Padilla.
Bullpen: Tom Gordon, Akinori Otsuka, J.C. Romero, Dave Burba, Tim Harikkala, Carlos Almanzar and Duaner Sanchez.
Projected Lineup: Shannon Stewart/Randy Winn (CF), Melvin Mora (3B), Todd Helton (1B), Alfonso Soriano (2B), Mark Sweeney/Jeff DaVanon (LF), Mike Cuddyer/Luis A. Gonzalez (RF), A.J. Pierzynski (C) and David Eckstein (SS).

Strengths: An outstanding lineup including three all-stars and a bullpen featuring two of the best relievers in baseball.  Although poor Billy has caught a lot of flak for his trading ability (or lack thereof), it is important to recognize that New Milford's trio of all-star hitters were acquired through trade in exchange for (for all intents and purposes) Kenny Rogers, Austin Kearns, Sean Burroughs and C.C. Sabathia.  Billy also takes a lot of grief for his ability to choose farm players, yet the team's current ace (Greinke) and co-closer (Otsuka) are both products of the New Milford farm system.  In addition to these strengths, the Blazers also feature a deep bench, which includes the second halves of the platoons listed above, plus Jeff Conine, Doug Mirabelli and Jose Offerman.

Weaknesses: New Milford's rotation is a bit weak once you get past Greinke (who can only pitch half the season) and Hernandez (who can only pitch about two chapters.)  And the lineup, once you get past the front four, is equally weak.  The big three in the lineup could use some support, with another table-setter at the top of the order and a bit more protection at the bottom to keep rallies alive.  The lack of depth in the rotation will make it difficult for the Blazers to sweep a series, and the lack of quality innings at the top of the rotation means more innings from guys like Ramirez and Padilla.  This lack of depth has a way of dragging good teams down.

Outlook: New Milford "led the league" in our pre-winter VORP study, yet I'm predicting them to finish in second place.  Why?  Because this team has a nasty habit of disappointing, and some habits are hard to break.  In order to be a serious contender in '05, New Milford needed to add some key pieces to the puzzle through trading this winter.  But the Blazers' team of GM's sat on their hands all winter, leaving this team with a few glaring holes and not a lot of money to fill them.  With $17.5 million to spend in the auction and draft, New Milford could have easily added a big bat or innings-eating arm to their roster, and they would be sitting pretty.  Instead, they spent $4.5 million on Hernandez's 85 innings, and $5m on Stewart (who is an unnecessary luxury), and never seriously entered into the bidding for the impact players who would have really made a big difference.

Prediction: 2nd place.  On the heels of their first-ever .500 season, the Blazers place higher than they ever have before.  But it's still not enough to get them into the post-season.  By the middle of Chapter Three, expect to see Blazers fans (all five of them) begin a grassroots campaign to move the team back to the Griffin Division.

Corona Confederates

Owner: Ed McGowan
2004 Record: 96-64 (2nd place, EL wild card)
Projected Rotation: Mark Buehrle, Odalis Perez, Woody Williams, Mike Mussina and Jerome Williams.
Bullpen: Scott Linebrink, Julian Tavarez, Alan Embree, Brian Fuentes and Javier Lopez.
Projected Lineup: Juan Pierre (LF), Orlando Cabrera/Barry Larkin (SS), David Ortiz (1B), Aramis Ramirez (3B), Mike Cameron (CF), Julio Lugo (2B), Dave Roberts (RF) and Brad Ausmus (C).

Strengths: A strong rotation fronted by two outstanding lefties and an MVP candidate batting in the #3 hole.  Buehrle and Perez should combine for at least 30 wins and a 3.50 ERA, while Ortiz should once again thrive in the middle of a lineup surrounded by two great table-setters and the protection of Aramis Ramirez.

Weaknesses: This lineup just wasn't the same when Manny Ramirez was traded mid-season last year for Mussina.  The bottom half of the order is very weak, and it's hard to find an outfield trio with less pop than Pierre, Cameron and Roberts.  Although Linebrink is an outstanding pitcher, and one of the best bargains of the auction, his supporting cast is not very strong at all.  Because of that, Corona could run into some trouble in the middle innings.

Outlook: Ed McGowan has quite a legacy to live up to.  The Confederates franchise is the most storied franchise in BDBL history.  As the winners of four BDBL championships (*) and over 600 games in six seasons, this franchise has left Ed with some mighty big shoes to fill.  From what we've seen so far, the rookie appears to be up to the challenge.  The Confederates have a very strong roster and could very well win this division.  At the very least, expect this team to be in the hunt for a playoff spot through the final days of the season.

Prediction: 3rd place.  The Corona offense loses more than 100 runs off their 2004 total, and the team is forced to rely upon their pitching to carry them.  In the end, it just isn't enough, and the Confederates fall short in a heated wild card race against the Hammerheads, Padawans and Blazers.

New Hope Badgers

Owner: Tony Badger
2004 Record: 61-99 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Carl Pavano, Eric Milton, Randy Wolf, Sidney Ponson, Victor Santos and Daniel Cabrera.
Bullpen: Salomon Torres, Yhency Brazoban, Scott Eyre, Jason Grimsley, Jorge Julio and John Franco.
Projected Lineup: Miguel Cairo (2B), Matt Lawton (RF), Jim Edmonds (CF), Eric Chavez (3B), Shea Hillenbrand (1B), Rondell White (LF), Cesar Izturis (SS) and Todd Greene/Bengie Molina (C). 

Strengths: Two very strong lefty sluggers in the middle of the lineup, surrounded by capable hitters.  That, and having a GM who actually cares about his team.  Not only are Edmonds and Chavez two outstanding lefty hitters, but they are two outstanding lefty hitters who have no trouble hitting lefty pitching.  Expect Cairo and Lawton to score at least 180 runs combined batting in front of those two.

Weaknesses: The starting rotation is a little thin -- okay, a lot thin -- once you get past Pavano.  Not one starter aside from Pavano has an ERC under 4.50, and even Pavano should struggle a bit with the change in ballpark factors.  The bullpen is a bit weak as well, once you get past Torres.

Outlook: The Badgers are a thousand times better than they were six months ago, but let's not kid ourselves.  A thousand times zero is still zero.  And this franchise began at zero.  Tony Badger has done a remarkable job with this team in his short reign as GM, and he has this franchise finally moving in the right direction after years of neglect.  But these things take time.  Miracles don't happen overnight.  And at this point, it would be a miracle if the Badgers finished with fewer than 90 losses.

Prediction: 4th place.  By the middle of Chapter Two, a white flag will be raised over the capital of New Hope.  Unfortunately, the team's most marketable commodity, Edmonds, carries a salary ($11.5m) that would put most teams above the luxury tax threshold.  Which either means that Edmonds stays put, or he gets traded to the Ridgebacks in exchange for a handful of mediocre prospects with the aid of some creative accounting.  Bank on the latter.

Ravenswood Infidels

Owner: Brian "Skizm" Potrafka
2004 Record: 92-68 (1st place, BDBL champions)
Projected Rotation: Johan Santana, Brad Penny, Tom Glavine and Adam Eaton.
Bullpen: Dan Kolb, Damaso Marte, Rheal Cormier, Jim Mecir, Erasmo Ramirez, Cliff Politte and Steve Reed.
Projected Lineup: Placido Polanco (2B), Michael Barrett (C), Mike Lowell (3B), Jim Thome (1B), Adam Dunn (LF), Larry Bigbie/Jayson Werth (CF), Richard Hidalgo (RF) and Alex Cintron/Wilson Delgado (SS).

Strengths: A strong rotation fronted by a true Cy Young candidate, a very deep and talented bullpen, a strong lineup from one to eight and a deep bench.  With a sub-600 OPS against both lefties and righties, Santana should be the best pitcher in the Ozzie League this season, hands-down.  Potrafka spent $11.5 million on veteran starting pitching in the auction this winter, shoring up what was the team's biggest weakness.  The lineup features four players with OPS splits over 1.000, and the bench will include the likes of John Mabry (940/846 splits), Frank Menechino (963 vs. LH) and Miguel Ojeda (1189 vs. LH.)

Weaknesses: The only real knock against this team is that there are stronger #2, #3 and #4 pitchers in the BDBL than Penny, Glavine and Eaton.  But then again, there were stronger #2, #3 and #4 pitchers than Jae Wong Seo, Dontrelle Willis and Jeremi Gonzalez in the BDBL last year, yet those three carried the Infidels all the way to the championship.

Outlook: For one fleeting moment, Brian Potrafka entertained the idea of calling 2005 a rebuilding year.  Unfortunately for the rest of the Ozzie League, that idea didn't last long.  Rather than rebuild, Brian has decided to put it all on the line once again and defend his title.  Through a series of seven trades and two free agent signings, the Infidels now appear to be stronger on paper in 2005 than they were in their championship season of 2004.

Prediction: 1st place and the OL championship.  The franchise record for wins is 98, set in 2000.  Breaking that record this season could be tough, considering the competition in this division.  The Infidels will win the Benes Division, but it will not be a cakewalk.  I see another visit to the World Series in Ravenswood's future.  Only this time, they'll find out what it's like to be on the opposite end of a hot streak.

Marlboro Hammerheads

Owner: Ken "The Shark" Kaminski
2004 Record: 86-74 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Carlos Zambrano, Tim Hudson, Wilson Alvarez and Steve Trachsel.
Bullpen: Justin Duchscherer, Steve Kline, Brian Shouse, Cal Eldred, Justin Speier, Mike Remlinger and Todd Jones.
Projected Lineup: Jimmy Rollins (SS), Keith Ginter/Damian Easley (2B), J.D. Drew (RF), Moises Alou (LF), Eric Byrnes/Steve Finley (CF), Ryan Klesko (1B), Vinny Castilla/Troy Glaus (3B) and Jason LaRue/Greg Zaun (C).

Strengths: Sharky spent half the winter collecting SUS's and the other half denying that he was doing it.  Regardless, all those SUS's add up to one hell of an offense.  The Hammerheads came within $500,000 of landing Barry Bonds, and within another $500k of signing Adrian Beltre.  They "settled" for Drew and Alou, who, combined, created 236 runs (65 more than Bonds) for the same amount of salary that Bonds fetched all by himself.  Against lefties, the Hammerheads will feature eight hitters with OPS's over 800.  Against righties, they'll have six players with 800+ OPS's.  As a result, expect the Hammerheads to easily surpass the 900-run mark, with 1,000 runs scored not out of the question.  On the hill, Zambrano and Hudson form an impressive one-two punch at the top of the rotation.

Weaknesses: If you go back and read what I wrote last year for the Hammerheads, you'll see that their weaknesses haven't changed over the past twelve months.  They still have no #4 starter, not enough quality innings in the starting rotation, and no legitimate closer in the bullpen.  Although the offense is ridiculous against left-handers, the lineup against righties may be a weakness for this team as well -- especially considering Kaminski Park's factors for lefty hitters.

Outlook: There is never a dull moment in Marlboro, and you never know what the volatile front office might do next.  At any given moment, Kaminski could pull off a trade that could make the Hammerheads instant World Series contenders.  It is just as likely, however, that he could pull off a trade that destroys this team's chances of winning in 2005.  Sharky has stated that his goal is to build a long-term dynasty in Marlboro, and 2005 is the first step toward that goal.  But don't blink, or you might miss the changing of the guards.

Prediction: 2nd place and the OL wild card.  Any team that scores 900 runs has a good chance at making the playoffs, and that is exactly what Marlboro will do in 2005 -- if they aren't messed with too badly.  Expect the Hammerheads to put up a hell of a fight in the Division Series and earn their first trip to the OLCS.  The Infidels, however, will prove to be too tough in the end.  

Las Vegas Flamingos

Owner: John Bochicchio
2004 Record: 79-81 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Brad Radke, Doug Davis, Jon Lieber, Derek Lowe and Erick Bedard.
Bullpen: B.J. Ryan, Lance Carter, Jim Brower, Chris Hammond, Greg Aquino, Jamie Walker and Julio Mateo.
Projected Lineup: Johnny Damon (CF), Rafael Furcal (SS), Javy Lopez (C), Hideki Matsui (LF), Jeromy Burnitz (RF), Tino Martinez (1B), Bill Mueller (3B) and Chase Utley/Alex Cora (2B),  .

Strengths: A solid front three in the rotation, a solid bullpen led by a legitimate closer, and a strong lineup from one to seven.  Johnny Bo has assembled a nice, balanced attack in 2005.

Weaknesses: The rotation is a bit thin at the bottom (though no more so than most other teams), and the same applies to the bullpen.  The Swamp Rats -- er, Flamingos -- shouldn't have any trouble scoring runs this season, but preventing runs may be a problem.

Outlook: In some other divisions, the Flamingos might have a shot at the playoffs.  But in this division, playing against three very strong teams, it is going to be an uphill battle all season long.  Las Vegas plays sixteen times each against the Infidels, Hammerheads and Irish Rebels this year, including twelve games against those teams in Chapters One and Two.  That will be a good test for this team, as we should know by the end of the second chapter whether or not this team can contend in this division.

Prediction: 3rd place.  The Flamingos have a very good team in 2005, but a lot of things will have to go their way in order to finish ahead of the Infidels or Hammerheads.

Manchester Irish Rebels

Owner: Jim Doyle
2004 Record: 65-95 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Rodrigo Lopez, Kerry Wood, Brett Tomko, Matt Morris and Victor Zambrano.
Bullpen: Mariano Rivera, Mike Timlin and Luis Ayala.
Projected Lineup: Nomar Garciaparra/Omar Vizquel (SS), Erubiel Durazo (1B), Sean Casey (3B), Miguel Cabrera (RF), Jorge Posada (C), Jose Guillen (LF), Wily Mo Pena (CF) and Bobby Hill (2B).

Strengths: A quality starting rotation and a strong heart of the lineup.  Lopez, Wood and Tomko match up well against the other starters in the league, and should be able to keep this team competitive.  Durazo, Casey, Cabrera, Posada and Guillen form a very strong offense.

Weaknesses: Softness at the bottom of the rotation and a thin bullpen lacking depth and middle-relief innings.  Is Bobby Hill really this team's starting second baseman?  Is Sean Casey really going to play third base?  Only the warped mind of Jim Doyle knows for sure.

Outlook: If you can figure out Doyle's latest strategy, you're smarter than I am.  (Or, more likely, you're as mentally disturbed as he is.)  Apparently, his new strategy involves committing $16 million over two years for a one-year wonder at first base when he's already paying $5.5 million to Durazo to play first base.  I am assuming his plan is to play one of them at third.  He did, after all, play Brett Boone out of position all year last year, so that would not be a complete surprise.  (Note: This is the same guy who once built an entire team around guys like Rey Ordonez, believing defense was of utmost importance.)  There is simply no figuring out what Doyle is up to.  The problem is that none of his schemes seem to work.  But you have to give him credit for recognizing that, and trying something new rather than sticking to the same failed formula every year.

Prediction: 4th place.  This team has a very good offense, and some quality pitching, but the competition in this division is simply too tough.  Manchester could win 75 games and still finish in fourth place.

Silicon Valley CyberSox

Owner: Greg Newgard
2004 Record: 61-99 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Chris Carpenter, Ryan Drese, Carlos Silva, Noah Lowry and Nate Robertson.
Bullpen: Keith Foulke, Trevor Hoffman, Giovanni Carrara, Braden Looper, T.J. Tucker, Trever Miller and Danny Graves.
Projected Lineup: Orlando Hudson (2B), Marquis Grissom/Brady Clark (RF), Adrian Beltre (3B), Ben Broussard/Hee Seop Choi (1B), Carlos Lee (LF), Milton Bradley (CF), Charles Johnson/Adam Melhuse (C), Adam Everett (SS).

Strengths: An all-star third baseman and an outstanding corps of relievers.   Beltre is a bona-fide superstar, and a legitimate offensive threat in the middle of this lineup.  The CyberSox bullpen is arguably the best bullpen in the BDBL (along with Sylmar's), and so deep that Silicon Valley could easily trade three of those arms and still have a great bullpen.  The biggest off-season acquisition by this team wasn't a player, but a ballpark.  The CyberSox have finally escaped the pitcher's Hell-hole modeled after Enron and traded it in for a pitcher's paradise modeled after Dodger Stadium.  That move should save Greg Newgard a few hours of sleep (at least until the baby arrives.)

Weaknesses: Beltre's supporting cast in the lineup is not overly intimidating, which may lead to a ton of free passes.  He is the only person in the lineup capable of beating a team all by himself.  The starting rotation is adequate, but not dominant, and it is questionable whether or not this rotation can hold its own against some of the better teams in the league.

Outlook: The CyberSox have put it all on the line this year in an attempt to go from worst to first.  They committed $24.5 million next year to a hitter with a sub-800 career OPS and a pitcher with severe nerve damage, in the hope that a 2005 championship will justify that spending.  To be sure, they have come a long, long way since last year.  Unfortunately, they still have a way to go before they can be considered surefire contenders.  With the change in ballparks, this offense may struggle to score 750 runs, even with the presence of Beltre, unless additional bats are added.  Having come this far, and gambled this much, don't expect Newgard to settle for good enough.

Prediction: 1st place.  Because they have the benefit of playing in a division that includes the two worst teams in the BDBL, Silicon Valley could very easily sneak into the playoffs, either as the division winner or wild card team.  The CyberSox franchise has lost 98 or more games in three out of the past four years and four times in its six year history.  With the improvements made to this team over the past year, and with the benefit of playing 32 games against the Jamboree and Undertakers, expect Silicon Valley to win at least 85 games in 2005 -- an improvement of at least 24 wins in one year.

Sylmar Padawans

Owner: John Duel
2004 Record: 60-100 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: A.J. Burnett, Bobby Madritsch, Kris Benson, Roy Halladay and Dewon Brazelton.
Bullpen: Francisco Rodriguez, John Smoltz, Ray King, Orber Moreno, Danys Baez.
Projected Lineup: Carl Crawford (CF), Craig Biggio (LF), Lyle Overbay (1B), Juan Uribe (2B), Raul Ibanez/Juan Rivera (RF), Casey Blake/Brandon Inge (3B), Bobby Crosby (SS) and Damian Miller/Miguel Olivo (C).

Strengths: A phenomenal, Undertakers-like bullpen, a quality rotation and a solid lineup from one to eight.  Imagine a starting pitcher who throws 227.2 innings, and allows just 169 hits, 11 homers and 70 walks while striking out 248 and posting an ERA of 2.37.  Those are the combined numbers for Rodriguez, Smoltz and King.  Now imagine a starting pitcher with these numbers: 208-176-12-71-173 and a 3.50 ERA.  Those are the combined numbers for Burnett and Madritsch, the two-headed ace of this staff.

Weaknesses: Although this lineup has no glaring holes, it also lacks a true power threat.  Overbay, Uribe and Ibanez/Rivera are fine hitters, but they're not your typical 3/4/5 hitters.  Overbay is the only Padawan batter who ranks among the top 50 in VORP, and he just barely squeezes into the picture at #48.

Outlook: Like the CyberSox, the Padawans are leaving their comfy confines and moving into a new ballpark.  Although they are moving from a park modeled after Dodger Stadium to one modeled after the home of the Angels (whatever they are calling it these days), don't expect to see a drastic change in run-scoring, as the two ballparks are more similar than you might expect.  Right-handed hitters will have a much easier time in the new park, but it won't help Overbay, Crawford or Ibanez very much.  This franchise has never won more than 81 games in the BDBL, but that will undoubtedly change this year.  Unfortunately, they just don't have the offensive firepower to make that leap from worst to first.

Prediction: 2nd place.  While Sylmar won't be a dominant team by any stretch of the definition, they have enough talent to contend in this very weak division.  If they can win 20 games against the Jamboree and Undertakers (which would be no difficult feat), they could be major players in the OL wild card race.

Bear Country Jamboree

Owner: Matt Clemm
2004 Record: 75-85 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: John Lackey, Scott Schoeneweis, Kirk Rueter and Ramon Ortiz.
Bullpen: Jason Isringhausen, Jose Mesa, Troy Percival and Mike Myers.
Projected Lineup: Jose Vidro (2B), Kevin Youkilis (3B), Alex Rodriguez (SS), Luis Gonzalez (LF), Sammy Sosa (RF), Carlos Pena (1B), Jody Gerut/Scott Podsednik (CF), Todd Zeile/Yorvit Torrealba (C).

Strengths: Well, they've still got A-Rod, and he still qualifies at shortstop.

Weaknesses: Yowza.  For starters, John Lackey is the ace of this pitching staff.   'Nuff said?

Outlook: Even in this weakest of weak divisions, the Jamboree don't have a prayer of competing in 2005.  Which means it's time to look at trade possibilities.  Their 2005 free agents include Ben Grieve, Quinton McCracken, Zeile, Mesa, Hideo Nomo, Stephen Randolph and Schoeneweis.  Nope, no trade bait there.  The most marketable -- and perhaps the ONLY marketable -- player on this team is A-Rod, and the Bear Country front office seems to be dead set against ever trading him.  Which means this team is destined to spend 2005 hoping Sosa and Gonzalez make a comeback while desperately trying to avoid a huge Rule 7.16 penalty.

Prediction: 3rd place.  This franchise is in trouble, and in desperate need of an overhaul.  Unfortunately, it's not going to be easy to build without some kind of building material.

Los Altos Undertakers

Owner: Jeff Paulson
2004 Record: 106-54 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: David Bush, Kevin Millwood, Jamie Moyer, Tim Wakefield and Ryan Franklin.
Bullpen: Eric Gagne, Mike Koplove, Mike Adams and Ron Villone.
Projected Lineup: Brett Boone (2B), Alexis Rios (CF), Carlos Delgado (1B), Rafael Palmeiro/Olmedo Saenz (3B), Cliff Floyd (LF), Jay Gibbons/Juan Gonzalez (RF), Jose Valentin (SS) and Mike Redmond (C).

Strengths: Wow.  Where to begin?  Well, for starters, there's Eric Gagne, who won the OL MVP and Cy Young last year.  Then there's, um...let's just move on.

Weaknesses: The starting rotation, the bullpen, the offense and the defense.  But other than those things, the Undertakers are awesome.

Outlook: This is just plain ugly.  We've seen rebuilding teams before in the BDBL, but never anything quite this drastic.  Looking at this team, it is hard to imagine how they could have won more games than any other team in the league only a year ago.  For all the other Griffin Division teams that have grown tired of finishing 20 games behind the Undertakers every year, 2005 is a golden opportunity for sweet redemption.  The Undertakers are so awful this year, it will be embarrassing to lose one game to them (and I plan to lose at least half a dozen.)  If Los Altos finishes with more than 55 wins, Jeff Paulson should not only be named Manager of the Year, but he should have his own wing named after him in the not-yet-built BDBL Hall of Fame.  With most of the Undertakers' best prospects having less than a year of professional experience under their belts, it may be quite a while before we see this team back on top.

Prediction: 4th place.  By about 60 games.

Allentown Ridgebacks

Owner: Tom DiStefano
2004 Record: 95-65 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Randy Johnson, Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, Glendon Rusch and Jimmy Gobble.
Bullpen: Billy Wagner, Antonio Osuna, Dan Miceli, Dave Williams and Jon Leicester.
Projected Lineup: Bobby Kielty/Larry Walker (RF), Marcus Giles (2B), J.T. Snow/Josh Phelps (1B), Carlos Guillen (SS), Craig Wilson (C), Geoff Jenkins (LF), Jamie Burke/Felipe Lopez (3B) and Rocco Ballsmelly (CF).

Strengths: The best starting rotation in the BDBL and an impressive collection of hitters.  A year ago, Johnson and Oswalt were injured and Peavy was struggling.  Today, no team in the BDBL can match Allentown's rotation.  In fact, no team even comes close.  Offensively, Emperor DiStefano took this team's biggest weakness and transformed it overnight into a formidable asset.  By spending $20 million on Walker, Snow and Guillen, the Ridgebacks were able to add the one missing ingredient they needed to return to the BDBL World Series once again.

Weaknesses: The Ridgebacks had so much money to spend this winter, they had no idea what to do with it.  They basically just threw out bids haphazardly on every player in the auction, and when they stumbled upon the winning bid for Nomar Garciaparra, they turned around and traded him for Billy Wagner, shoring up what was then the team's biggest weakness.  Even with that addition, however, the bullpen is still a bit thin.

Outlook: The Ridgebacks are very well positioned to reach the World Series for the third time in the last four years.  Their pitching is without rival in the BDBL, and their offense is powerful enough to place among the top five in runs scored.  Expect the Ridgebacks to be among the league leaders in run differential.

Prediction: 1st place and the BDBL championship.  The Ridgebacks easily run away with this division, turning the pennant race into a yawn-fest once again, with Allentown winning this division by at least 30 games.  They then cruise to the World Series once again, where they recapture the BDBL trophy once again.

Villanova Mustangs

Owner: Tony Chamra
2004 Record: 61-99 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Rich Harden, Dontrelle Willis, Josh Fogg, Jarrod Washburn and Kip Wells.
Bullpen: Ryan Madson, Danny Haren, Chad Harville and Brian Bruney.
Projected Lineup: Edgardo Alfonzo (2B), David Newhan (RF), Johnny Estrada (C), Travis Hafner (1B), Garrett Anderson (LF), Corey Koskie/Morgan Ensberg (3B), Royce Clayton (SS) and Reggie Sanders (LF).

Strengths: A strong heart of the lineup and the world's sickest farm system.   Estrada, Hafner, Anderson and Koskie form a nice core of hitters in the middle of the order.  But the biggest strength of this team is its foundation of outstanding young players, including Harden, Willis, Estrada, Hafner, Madson, Haren, Casey Kotchman, Andy Marte, Jeremy Reed, Nick Swisher, Chad Billingsley, Joe Blanton, Jesse Crain, Ryan Wagner and Adam Wainwright.

Weaknesses: Unfortunately, all those good, young players won't help this team a whole lot in 2005.  Although the Mustangs had a solid foundation and gobs of money to spend this winter, they laid low throughout the auction, shelling out just $8.5 million (on Anderson and Newhan), then ended the draft with $5.8 million still sitting on the table.  Tony Chamra made up his mind early in the winter that the Mustangs would not be competitive in '05, and dropped out of the race before it even began.  Had he invested even a tiny bit of the team's resources into the 2005 team, it is easy to imagine this team contending for a playoff spot.

Outlook: The Mustangs allocated $25.1 million (nearly 40% of their total budget) to something other than player salaries this year.  Clearly, the focus for this team is 2006 and beyond.  Like the Undertakers, Villanova is embarking on a rather unique experiment by building a dominant farm system, then actually retaining all of those players rather than trading them away.  Since Villanova's prospects are closer to making an impact than Los Altos', we'll know the results of this experiment sooner than later.  Whereas the Hippos traded away a couple of good, young players and spent some money to become a strong contender in '05, the Mustangs are content to play the waiting game once again.  Villanova's goal this season seems to be to simply avoid Rule 7.16 penalties.  As this team is presently constructed, and having the benefit of playing in a weak division, they should be able to meet that lofty goal.

Prediction: 2nd place.  2005 will be an important year for Villanova, as many questions will be answered.  Is this the year Rich Harden becomes Tim Hudson?  Are Johnny Estrada and Travis Hafner for real?  Will Casey Kotchman or Andy Marte ever get a chance to prove themselves at the big league level?  The answers to these questions will determine the fate of this team in 2006.  And if those answers aren't satisfactory, it will be yet another year of waiting for Tony Chamra and the legions of Mustang fans.

Kansas Law Dogs

Owner: Chris Luhning
2004 Record: 80-80 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Kevin Brown, Mark Redman, Ismael Valdez and Aaron Harang.
Bullpen: Armando Benitez, Chad Bradford, Mike Stanton, Brooks Kieschnick, Jaime Cerda, Todd Williams and Nate Field.
Projected Lineup: Luis Castillo (2B), Victor Martinez (C), Carlos Beltran (CF), Gary Sheffield (RF), Magglio Ordonez/David DeJesus (LF), B.J. Surhoff/Adam LaRoche (1B), David Wright/Eric Hinske (3B) and Angel Berroa (SS).

Strengths: As always, a very potent offense.  Every hitter in the Kansas lineup from one to seven is a threat at the plate, and the Law Dogs' bench is probably the deepest bench in the BDBL.  Ken Harvey and Reed Johnson would likely be full-time starters for some other teams in this league, and Nick Green and Scott Hairston would make a nice second base combo.  But in Kansas, these players are relegated to pinch hitting duties.  Luhning favorite Mike Sweeney is also hanging around, looking for at-bats.

Weaknesses: With Brown, Redman, Valdez and Harang comprising the starting rotation, the Law Dogs are sure to give up more runs in their Coors-modeled ballpark than they will score.  As deep as this lineup is, it is still impossible to win if your pitchers allow more runs than your hitters are capable of scoring.

Outlook: In some ballparks, maybe the Law Dogs could get away with their all-offense/no-pitching strategy.  But they'll struggle big-time to win games with the pitching staff they've got this year.  And as we all know by now, at the first hint of defeat, Luhning will raise the white flag, making it difficult to predict this team to finish any higher than third.

Prediction: 3rd place.  By the end of Chapter Two, Luhning will be looking to unload Castillo, Sheffield and Benitez for whatever Kansas City Royals prospects he can get in return.

Great Lakes Sphinx

Owner: Scott Romonosky
2004 Record: 66-94 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Freddy Garcia, C.C.Sabathia, Cory Lidle, John Garland, Dustin Hermanson and Andy Pettitte.
Bullpen: Brad Lidge, Ugueth Urbina and Ricardo Rincon.
Projected Lineup: Eric Young/Jerry Hairston (2B), Derek Jeter (SS), Kevin Millar (1B), Jermaine Dye (RF), Corey Patterson (LF), Ross Gload/Gary Matthews (CF), Chad Tracy (3B) and Rod Barajas/Jason Phillips (C).

Strengths: A Gagne-like closer in Brad Lidge.  The Sphinx owned two Gagne-like closers heading into the winter, but sacrificed one of them for Jeter.  Garcia is a legitimate ace at the top of the rotation, though he, too, came at a steep cost.  The Sphinx also have a deep bench, in part because they signed Millar when they already had viable options at first (Justin Morneau and Scott Hatteberg) and the outfield.

Weaknesses: With the exceptions of Lidge and Garcia, the rest of the players on this team are fairly mediocre.  The starting rotation is rather dull, even with the presence of Garcia (who should see a dramatic dip in homers allowed with the move to The Pyramid.)   Lidge's supporting cast of setup men is very weak, and the lineup lacks one hitter with an OPS above .900 (and only two part-timers with OPS's above .850.)

Outlook: There isn't a lot here for Sphinx fans to get excited about.  This franchise hasn't won 70 games since Al Gore was last taken seriously, and it doesn't appear they will break that streak this year, either.  Unfortunately, there isn't a lot of trade bait here, unless someone wants to take on Garcia's $10.5 million contract.  In retrospect, the Sphinx would have been better served by bargain-hunting in this year's auction rather than shelling out $17 million for one-year solutions like Garcia and Millar.

Prediction: 4th place.  If Great Lakes loses 90 games this year, they will break the New Milford Blazers' record for consecutive 90-loss seasons.  Needless to say, they would like to avoid that record at all costs.  If I were a betting man, however, I'd place the over/under for Sphinx losses this year at 92.

Wapakoneta Hippos

Owner: Bobby Sylvester, Jr.
2004 Record: 67-93 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Jake Westbrook, Jeff Suppan, John Thomson, Mike Maroth, Joe Kennedy and Cliff Lee.
Bullpen: Felix Rodriguez, Brian Meadows, Travis Harper and Antonio Alfonseca.
Projected Lineup: Mark Bellhorn (3B), Jason Bay (CF), Barry Bonds (LF), Albert Pujols (1B), Shawn Green (RF), Kaz Matsui (SS), Tony Womack/Chris Gomez (2B) and Mike Matheny/Benito Santiago (C).

Strengths: In case you haven't heard, the Hippos lineup will feature the game's two greatest sluggers -- Bonds and Pujols -- back-to-back.  Those two can create 450 runs all by themselves.  With Bellhorn and Bay setting the table, and Green providing protection, expect record-setting years from Bonds and/or Pujols.  200 RBI's isn't out of the question for either one, and by batting those two back-to-back, it eliminates an opposing team's greatest weapon: the intentional walk.  The top five hitters in the Wapakoneta lineup combined for 593.4 runs created in MLB '04 -- tops in the BDBL.  The Hippos rotation is very, very deep, with three quality righties at the front of the rotation and three quality lefties at the bottom.  Wapakoneta also has a lot of depth and flexibility on their bench, with several good players that qualify at several different positions.  In case you were wondering why you were having trouble finding quality innings and at-bats this winter, now you know where they went.

Weaknesses: The team's only weakness at the moment is their bullpen, which can be rectified easily enough.  Though the rotation is very deep, quality has been sacrificed for quantity.  Quantity wins pennants, but quality wins playoff games.  Fortunately, the Hippos have plenty of time to fix that problem as well.

Outlook: You have to give Bobby Sylvester a lot of credit.  Last year, I predicted it would take the Hippos five or six years to contend.  But this winter, Bobby went for broke and snagged the biggest pitcher available on the trade market (Westbrook) and the biggest fish in the free agent pond (Bonds.)  And with the Baseball Gods continuing to shine down upon the Hippos farm club, this team was magically transformed into an overnight contender.  Mad props to Bobby for a job well done.

Prediction: 1st place.  The Hippos should have no trouble winning this division, but they'll face some stiff competition in the playoffs.  My prediction: Chicago over Wapakoneta in the Division Series in seven hard-fought games.

Nashville Funkadelic

Owner: Steve Osborne
2004 Record: 60-100 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Al Leiter, Jason Marquis, Kaz Ishii, Paul Byrd, Bartolo Colon and Shawn Estes.
Bullpen: Joe Nathan, Shingo Takatsu, Kent Mercker, Grant Balfour, Eddie Guardado and Randy Choate.
Projected Lineup: Ichiro Suzuki (CF), Jack Wilson (SS), Lew Ford (RF), Phil Nevin (1B), Pat Burrell (LF), Pedro Feliz (3B), Ray Durham (2B) and Brian Schneider/Toby Hall (C).

Strengths: A strong bullpen, a quality hitter at every position in the lineup from one to seven and significant depth on the bench.  Before the trade of Justin Duchscherer to the Hammerheads, the Funkadelic had three relievers ranked among the top sixteen in baseball according to Baseball Prospectus' RRE rankings.  With Nathan and Takatsu, they still have two of the top thirteen.  Suzuki and Wilson should be all-star candidates, and Nashville fans will be elated to see Ford batting in the #3 hole all season.  The bench is so deep it includes $10 million "All-Century" player Ken Griffey, Jr..

Weaknesses: Despite having gobs of money to spend, the Funk sat out most of the auction, preferring to load up in the draft portion instead.  As a result, they passed up on adding a quality arm or two, which may have greatly improved this team's chances of making the playoffs this season.

Outlook: Winning with this pitching staff will not be easy, as every team in this division carries a star-studded lineup.  When you think about guys like Bartolo Colon and Kaz Ishii facing guys like Bonds and Pujols sixteen times a year, you get a sense of what this team is up against this year.

Prediction: 2nd place.  A few more pieces to the puzzle, and the Funkadelic may be able to sneak into the playoffs through the wild card.

Southern Cal Slyme

Owner: Bob Sylvester, Sr.
2004 Record: 106-54 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Josh Beckett, Joel Piniero, Jose Contreras and Esteban Loaiza.
Bullpen: Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch and Jose Valverde.
Projected Lineup: Edgar Renteria (SS), Bernie Williams (LF), Jeff Kent (2B), Derrek Lee (1B), Mike Lieberthal (C), Dmitri Young (3B), Torii Hunter (CF) and Michael Tucker (RF).

Strengths: The lineup is filled with eight solid hitters.  There isn't an easy out in the bunch.  Dotel is a capable closer, and Beckett is a legitimate ace.

Weaknesses: The Baseball Gods have not been kind to the Slyme over the past several months.  First, they lost in the first round of the post-season despite fielding a ridiculously loaded team.  Then, every starting pitcher in their deep rotation failed to live up to expectations in MLB '04.  As a result, a year after fielding the deepest rotation in BDBL history, the Slyme go into 2005 with the thinnest rotation in the league.

Outlook: SoCal is going to have a lot of problems squeezing quality innings out of that pitching staff.  The offense could easily score 800 runs this year, but the pitching staff could easily allow 900.  As a result, the Slyme will struggle to reach .500 in 2005.

Prediction: 3rd place.  If the Slyme make the decision to rebuild through trading, they have a ton of trade bait with Lieberthal, Kent, Martinez, Young and Tucker (all free agents after this season.)  They will have to be careful, however, not to go below the minimum luxury tax threshold.  And too many trades may hurt this team through Rule 7.16 penalties as well.  Tough decisions, to be sure, but that's what makes this so much fun.

South Carolina Sea Cats

Owner: Tony DeCastro
2004 Record: 76-84 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Matt Clement, Kenny Rogers, Brian Lawrence and Jason Johnson.
Bullpen: Juan Rincon, Tanyan Sturtze, Tim Worrell, Doug Brocail and Billy Koch.
Projected Lineup: D'Angelo Jimenez (SS), Hank Blalock (3B), Mike Piazza/Ramon Hernandez (C), Andruw Jones (CF), Kevin Mench (LF), Nick Johnson/Jeff Bagwell (1B), Bobby Higginson (RF) and Todd Walker (2B). 

Strengths: A solid lineup with no discernible glaring hole from one to eight.  Rincon is an asset in the bullpen and a true stopper, and Clement is a capable ace at the top of the rotation.

Weaknesses: Both the starting rotation and bullpen could use another dependable arm or two.  Rogers is probably the weakest pitcher ever involved in a BDBL auction, and he is this team's #2 pitcher.

Outlook: Tony DeCastro really must have pissed off the Baseball Gods at some point in his life, because they sure seem to find new ways to screw him over every year.  Last year, I predicted that Blalock and Johnson would become a "powerful (and low-wage) one/two combo of all-stars."  Instead, Blalock slumped and Johnson was injured (again.)  The Sea Cats will struggle to avoid Rule 7.16 penalties this year, as the other teams in this division all have great offenses.

Prediction: 4th place.  Is next year the year Blalock and Johnson become an inexpensive pair of all-stars and lead the Sea Cats to a division title?  I won't jinx this team again, so I'll say definitely not.

Chicago Black Sox

Owner: John Gill
2004 Record: 102-58 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Ben Sheets, Mark Prior, Brandon Webb, Jeremy Bonderman and Brett Myers.
Bullpen: Guillermo Mota, Jay Witasick, Ron Mahay.
Projected Lineup: Jason Kendall (C), Chipper Jones (3B), Manny Ramirez (LF), Vladimir Guerrero (RF), Aubrey Huff (1B), Vernon Wells (CF), Khalil Greene (SS) and Jose Castillo (2B).

Strengths: As which seems to be the case every year, the Black Sox own a ridiculous lineup.  The first seven hitters in the Chicago lineup totaled 705 runs created in MLB '04, and three of those hitters (Guerrero, Ramirez and Huff) ranked among the top 40 in all of baseball in that category.  Sheets is a stud at the top of the rotation, and the rest of the rotation is very solid.

Weaknesses: Mota could really use some quality setup men, but other than that, there is little to not like about this team.

Outlook: Chicago should have little trouble winning this division and returning to the post-season with yet another "unbeatable" team.  The question is: Will this year's unbeatable team be beaten?  This team will be returning every player on the roster next year, save Kendall and Mota, so don't be surprised to see them at the top of this list again a year from now.

Prediction: 1st place.  For the second year in a row, the Black Sox square off against Barry Bonds in the post-season.  Like last year, Chicago's relentless attack overpowers Bonds and the the Hippos, and the Black Sox advance to the ELCS for the second year in a row, and a rematch against the Ridgebacks.  This time, Allentown prevails.  You can't keep a good Sith down.

Atlanta Fire Ants

Owner: Gene Patterson
2004 Record: 64-96 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Livan Hernandez, Jaret Wright, Mark Mulder, Ted Lilly and Mark Hendrickson.
Bullpen: Chad Cordero, LaTroy Hawkins, Kevin Gregg, Luis Vizcaino, Ricky Bottalico, Jason Frasor, Tommy Phelps, John Parrish.
Projected Lineup: Coco Crisp (LF), Bobby Abreu (RF), Miguel Tejada (SS), Paul Konerko (1B), Aaron Rowand (CF), Paul Lo Duca (C), Mark Grudzielanek/Junior Spivey (2B) and Joe Randa (3B).

Strengths: A deep rotation, a very deep bullpen and a strong lineup from one to six.  The Fire Ants rotation includes four of the top 35 starting pitchers in baseball (as ranked by VORP) and the bullpen includes no fewer than SIX relievers with 65+ innings and ERA's under 4.00.  The starting lineup includes four all-star candidates who combined for 461 runs created in MLB '04.

Weaknesses: The lineup is not nearly as deep as the rotation or bullpen, though it is hardly weak at the top or bottom.

Outlook: After FIVE long seasons and FIVE consecutive last-place finishes (a feat that not even the New Milford Blazers can match), the Atlanta Fire Ants have finally reached respectability.   Gene Patterson's patience, persistence and determination will, at long last, reap great rewards.  If the Fire Ants were an Ozzie League team, I would put even odds on them reaching the World Series.

Prediction: 2nd place and the EL wild card.  Unfortunately, Atlanta's first trip to the post-season will be a short one, as the Allentown Ridgebacks will roll over them.

Akron Ryche

Owner: D.J. Shepard
2004 Record: 96-64 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, Bronson Arroyo, Jeff Weaver and Paul Wilson.
Bullpen: Mike Gonzalez, Matt Miller, Frank Francisco.
Projected Lineup: Chone Figgins (2B), Mark Kotsay (CF), Scott Rolen (3B), Jason Varitek (C), Brian Giles (RF), Ryan Freel/Jose Cruz (LF), Russ Branyan/Julio Franco (1B) and Christian Guzman (SS).

Strengths: As always, a very strong starting rotation (How does he do it every single year?), and a solid bullpen and lineup.  Pedro will probably not earn any Cy Young votes this year, but he is still a quality #1 starter, and the Akron rotation is much deeper than it was a year ago.  The lineup is strong in the middle, with two capable table-setters at the top and three decent hitters at the bottom.

Weaknesses: The bullpen is a little thin, and the bottom third of this lineup is weaker than most in the league.  Aside from that, there is little to pick apart.

Outlook: This team is good enough to win most divisions in the BDBL, but as they learned last season, beating the Black Sox isn't easy (even when Chicago gives everyone a big head start.)   This year, not only must they contend against a dominant Chicago team, but a vastly-improved Atlanta team as well.  Unfortunately for Akron fans, the days of winning the Hrbek Division with a record of 81-79 are long gone.

Prediction: 3rd place.  Akron wages a year-long battle against Atlanta and Nashville for the EL wild card, but comes up just short in the end.

Cleveland Rocks

Owner: Mike Stein
2004 Record: 84-76 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Jason Schmidt, Kelvim Escobar, David Wells, Russ Ortiz and Javier Vazquez.
Bullpen: Kiko Calero, Rafael Betancourt, Bobby Howry, Brendan Donnelly, Wil Ledezma, Ramiro Mendoza.
Projected Lineup: Jason Michaels/Kenny Lofton (CF), Ron Belliard (2B), Brad Wilkerson (RF), Frank Thomas (1B), Alex Gonzalez (SS), Joe Crede (3B), Jacque Jones/Frank Catalanotto (LF) and Matt LeCroy (C).

Strengths: Jason Schmidt, backed by a quality supporting staff and a deep bullpen.  Schmidt is among the top ten pitchers in baseball, while Escobar, Wells, Ortiz and Vazquez round out a solid rotation.  Cleveland's piecemeal bullpen-by-committee lacks a classic closer, but all the ingredients are there for a quality bullpen.

Weaknesses: Cleveland's $28 million investment in Schmidt and Vazquez last winter, in addition to their $16.5 million investment in Barry Bonds the year before, gave them little money to spend over the past three years on an offense.  It shows.  The Rocks offense is among the weakest in the BDBL, and scoring 700 runs this season will be a challenge.

Outlook: The Rocks have never won fewer than 76 games in a season, but that will change in 2005.  As good as this pitching staff is, it is difficult to win without scoring any runs.  The Los Altos Undertakers pulled it off last year, but they had the benefit of playing in the league's weakest division.  By contrast, the Hrbek Division is among the league's toughest divisions -- if not the toughest.  Playing sixteen games each against the Black Sox, Fire Ants and Ryche would tax any team's winning percentage, but the 2005 Rocks are especially vulnerable. 

Prediction: 4th place.  Cleveland falls behind early and begins to entertain the notion of rebuilding for the first time in franchise history.  The problem is that the team's most marketable free agent-to-be, Schmidt, carries a $13 million price tag, causing Cleveland to trade off Schmidt for an assortment of semi-useless spare parts for the 2006 season.  Escobar, however, nets a healthy take, and combined with the $38 million in salary Cleveland recovers through free agent flight, they once again become big-time players in the '06 auction.  Where, of course, they overspend on two or three more big-name superstars, thus starting the cycle all over again.