February, 2007

2007 Season Preview

In 2006, we saw an unprecedented level of parity in the BDBL, where only one team finished with 100+ wins, and only one team finished with 100+ losses.  We also saw a post-season where only one of the eight teams in the previous post-season appeared.  Will we witness a continuation of this parity trend in 2007?  Or will we return to the era of superteams and superlosers?  Judging by what I've seen, put your money on the latter.

In 2007, we could easily see two teams break the New Milford Blazers' all-time BDBL record for losses in a single season (114) -- one of those teams being the defending Ozzie League champs themselves.  And there are several teams that could easily break the 100-win mark.  The return of the dreaded "all-or-nothing" approach means lots and lots of lopsided trading to get everyone's juices flowing.  But that's nothing new, is it?  Although the reduced in-season VORP cap (of 100) should help a little, it is likely that 2006 was simply the eye of the hurricane.

Before I get to my undoubtedly dead-accurate predictions, let's look at how I did last year.  Of the six division winners, I correctly predicted four of them.  That sounds pretty good, until you realize how badly I missed on the other two.  In the Person Division, I predicted the first-place Sea Cats would finish in last place, and in the Hrbek Division, I predicted the 70-90 Chicago Black Sox would finish in first place.  D'oh!

To be fair, though, I also made the following bold prediction in last year's preview:

"Villanova should have no problem winning this division without much of a challenge.  With this pitching staff, it's hard to imagine this team not advancing to the World Series...I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a BDBL championship for the Mustangs in 2006."

Scary, isn't it?

In league polling, five of the six division winners were correctly identified -- and the only one missed was the Butler Division, where the eventual Ozzie League champs (New Milford) were picked to win the division.  So maybe you guys should be writing this preview instead of me.

Jump to:
Higuera | Person | Hrbek | Butler | Benes | Griffin

Salem Cowtippers

Owner: Mike Glander
2006 Record: 71-89 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Brandon Webb, Jeremy Bonderman, Erik Bedard, Kelvim Escobar and Ian Snell.
Bullpen: B.J. Ryan, Aki Otsuka, Rafael Soriano, Ron Mahay, Will Ohman and Edgar Gonzalez.
Projected Lineup: Derek Jeter (SS), Nick Punto/Scott Spiezio/Geoff Jenkins (LF), Lance Berkman (RF), Scott Rolen (3B), Mike Piazza/Kenji Johjima (C), Mike Cameron (CF), Orlando Hudson (2B) and Conor Jackson (1B).

Strengths: Depth.  The Cowtippers' starting rotation features four pitchers with 189+ innings and sub-4.00 CERA's -- the only rotation of its kind in the BDBL.  The Salem bullpen features the best reliever in baseball, backed by several quality setup men.  The Salem lineup features a strong, above-average hitter in every spot in the lineup from one through eight.  And the bench is stocked with very capable pinch hitters, pinch runners and defensive subs for every conceivable situation.

Weaknesses: Both the starting rotation and lineup are a bit righty-heavy, which plays well at the newly-configured Sam Adams Stadium, but could pose a problem on the road.  This makes both the rotation and lineup susceptible to those always-beloved BDBL platoon freaks.

Outlook: After eight years of competitive baseball, the Cowtippers took a year off to regroup in 2006, and the result is the team you see today.  Salem sat out of the 2007 free agent draft altogether, and instead filled in the missing pieces through winter trading.  The majority of this team, including the entire starting rotation, is signed through the 2008 season, and the hope is that this team can be competitive for several years and avoid another disaster like 2006.

Prediction: 1st place.  The Cowtippers have a well-balanced team, in terms of starting pitching, bullpen, offense and defense.  With their strong starting pitching and bullpen, and deep lineup, the Cowtippers would fare well in the playoffs.  However, we all know Salem's shit doesn't work in the post-season.  So look for another OLCS loss for Salem, with the Los Altos Undertakers getting revenge for 2003.

New Hope Badgers

Owner: Tony Badger
2006 Record: 79-81 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Chris Young, Pedro Martinez, Andy Pettitte, Jake Westbrook and Daniel Cabrera.
Bullpen: Scott Proctor, Braden Looper, Fernando Cabrera, Chad Paronto and Michael Wuertz.
Projected Lineup: Grady Sizemore (CF), Barry Bonds (LF), David Ortiz (1B), Michael Cuddyer (RF), Morgan Ensberg (3B), Felipe Lopez (SS), Mike Lamb/Aaron Miles (2B) and Ronny Paulino/Vance Wilson (C). 

Strengths: A powerful offense that could very well score over 1,000 runs.  Sizemore, Bonds and Ortiz are three MVP candidates, each with a 900+ OPS overall, and 1000+ OPS against righties.  Those three combined for 353 runs created in MLB '06, and they should top that number with added usage and more friendly ballpark factors in the BDBL.  The Badgers' bench is very strong as well, with players like Melky Cabrera, Jeff DaVanon, Ben Johnson and James Loney -- players who would all be starters for the Blazers or Hammerheads.

Weaknesses: Last year, the Badgers nearly finished .500 with the highly-forgettable Jason Johnson leading the starting rotation and Michael Wuertz serving as closer out of the bullpen.  The year before, the Badgers finished 18 games OVER .500 with a rotation of Carl Pavano and four starters with ERA's all well above 5.00.  This year, the ace of the staff is Young, whose 589/741 splits compiled in baseball's best pitcher's park should translate poorly to New Hope's newly-configured park (modeled after the Juice Box in Houston.)  Those park factors work against Martinez, Westbrook and Pettitte as well.  And leading the bullpen is Proctor, who will never be confused with a classic "closer."  Also, the lineup is very lefty-heavy, as all three of their big sluggers swing from the right side of home plate.  And once you get past those three great hitters, the rest of the lineup isn't all that special.

Outlook: And yet, somehow, some way, all those weaknesses will not matter in the end.  The Badgers always seem to find a way to win, regardless of their perceived weaknesses.  New Hope came into this auction/draft with $21.5 million to spend, and only one item on their shopping list: a #1 starter.  They bid $19 million on Johan Santana, $18m on Chris Carpenter, $19m on C.C. Sabathia, $12m on Greg Maddux, $5m on Kenny Rogers, $6.5m on Ben Sheets, $15m on John Smoltz, $7.5m on Tom Glavine and $15m on Jason Jennings.  In any other year, any one of those bids would have been more than enough to win.  But in this wacky winter of 2007, each bid fell short, and the Badgers were forced to spend $10 million on Martinez in the first round of the draft.  On the plus side, Martinez is a true #1 starter.  On the minus side, he is only available to pitch 145 innings this season, and he will miss half of the '07 MLB season.  New Hope has better pitching this season than in any of Tony Badger's past seasons at the helm of this franchise, and that pitching -- along with their big three lefties in the lineup -- should carry this team a long way.

Prediction: 2nd place.  There is no doubt that New Hope will contend in 2007.  The only question is how far they will go.  The competition in this division is as tough as any in the league, and the wild card race is populated with promising contenders as well.  So making it to the post-season will be no guarantee despite the quality of this team.  But don't make the mistake of counting the Badgers out.  Look for the Badgers to win the OL wild card, thanks to the unbalanced schedule.  (See the comments for the Bear Country Jamboree.)  How far they advance in the playoffs depends on who their Division Series opponent is.  If it's Los Altos, look for a first-round exit.  If it's Salem, look for the Badgers to advance to the LCS.

Corona Confederates

Owner: Ed McGowan
2006 Record: 95-65 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Johan Santana, Brett Myers, Noah Lowry, Aaron Cook and Livan Hernandez.
Bullpen: Chad Cordero, Joaquin Benoit, Jose Capellan, Joe Borowski, Scott Linebrink and Logan Kensing.
Projected Lineup: Dave Roberts (CF), Ray Durham (2B), Joe Mauer (C), Prince Fielder (1B), Shawn Green (RF), Mike Lowell (3B), Julio Lugo/Robb Quinlan (LF) and David Eckstein (SS).

Strengths: Santana is the best pitcher in the BDBL, and Mauer is the best catcher in the BDBL.  Among pitchers with more than 121 IP last year, Santana ranks #1 in opponents' OPS (618.)  He allowed an average of 7.3 hits, 1.8 walks and 9.6 K's per game last year, and he should be the leading candidate to win the OL Cy Young award in 2007.  Mauer's MLB stats (.347/.429/.507) virtually ensure that he will compete for the OL Babe Ruth award.

Weaknesses: In a word: depth.  Once you get past Santana, the starting rotation consists of a quality #2 starter (Myers) and three below-average inning-eaters.  And once you get past Mauer in the lineup, you're left with two good hitters in Fielder and Durham, and a bunch of filler.  And the bullpen lacks a go-to stopper.

Outlook: Very few teams can afford to spend one-third of their total salary on one player, and the Confederates are not one of those teams.  By spending so much cash on Santana, Ed McGowan effectively weakened the rest of his team.  Santana is a great pitcher, and Mauer is a great hitter, but two players cannot carry an entire team no matter how great they are.  Santana was a member of three different teams last year.  Two of those teams didn't make it to the playoffs, and the other didn't make it past the Division Series.  The Confederates were decimated by free agency this winter, losing David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, John Smoltz and Bobby Abreu.  They replaced Smoltz well enough, but Fielder is no Ortiz, Lugo is no Ramirez, and Green is no Abreu.

Prediction: 3rd place.  The Confederates are talking about another division championship in 2007, but they simply do not have the firepower to compete this year, despite the presence of their $21 million prize.  The only question is: How long will they hold onto that prize?  If the Confederates win 16+ games in Chapter One, expect Santana to last through the year and be traded in the off-season.  If the Confederates finish Chapter Two with fewer than 24 wins, don't be surprised if a ferocious bidding war for Santana ensues.  His salary will scare off more than a few prospective buyers, and his high VORP will make it difficult to move him as well.  So if he is put on the chopping block, the number of buyers will be very low, which means he won't fetch nearly as much as he is worth.

New Milford Blazers

Owners: Billy Baseball and Anthony Peburn
2006 Record: 90-70 (2nd place, OL wild card, OL champs)
Projected Rotation: Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, Bung-Hole Kim and Scott Elarton.
Bullpen: Brad Thompson, Kyle Farnsworth, Jason Davis, Cha Seung Baek, C.J. Wilson and Jeff Karstens.
Projected Lineup: David Dellucci (RF), Doug Mientkiewicz/Mike Sweeney (1B), Dioner Navarro (C), Garrett Anderson (LF), Melvin Mora (3B), Clint Barmes (SS), Brian Anderson (CF) and Mark Ellis (2B).

Strengths: Absolutely none.

Weaknesses: Absolutely everything.

Outlook: This is an ugly team.  A really, REALLY ugly team.  This team is so ugly, it would have to tie a pork chop around its neck just to get a dog to play with it.  This team is so ugly it would make an onion cry.  This team is so ugly, a young boy in New Milford accidentally dropped a Blazers' team photo on the street and was arrested for littering.  There has been a debate among the sabermetric community for a number of years regarding the true meaning of the word "replacement-level."  It is generally agreed that no team could ever be so awful that they would lose every game they played.  So the question is: if you fielded a team full of replacement-level players, how many games would that team win?  We're about to find out.

Prediction: 4th place.  The 1999 Blazers lost a league-record 114 games with a few decent hitters (Dante Bichette, Tony Fernandez, Eric Karros) and pitchers (Randy Johnson, Jose Rosado, Chuck Finley, Robb Nen) sprinkled throughout the active roster.  With the exception of a couple of bullpen arms who will likely be dealt by the time you read this, this team has exactly ZERO decent players.  A new all-time record -- and the accompanying $5 million penalty -- seems a virtual certainty.  Although the front office has high hopes, it is very difficult to imagine the Blazers finishing above last place next year, or the year after that, or the year after that.  New Milford's long-term master strategy involves spending $19 million this winter to acquire Miguel Batista, Melvin Mora, Kyle Farnsworth, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Akinori Iwamura, Yoslan Herrera, Hong-Chi Kuo and David Dellucci.  $19 MILLION.  There is literally nothing on this roster worthy of inspiring hope for the future.  No young, MLB-ready franchise players to build around.  No high-impact veterans worthy of fetching young, MLB-ready franchise players in trade.  Nothing.  Nada.  Zip.  Zilch.  The Blazers ran up some big bills last year, and now those payments are due.  They will be making those payments for a long, long time.

Manchester Irish Rebels

Owner: Jim Doyle
2006 Record: 71-89 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Scott Kazmir, C.C. Sabathia, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels and Jamey Wright.
Bullpen: Dennys Reyes, David Weathers, Dan Wheeler and Justin Duchscherer.
Projected Lineup: Rafael Furcal (SS), Nick Markakis (RF), Miguel Cabrera (3B), Alfonso Soriano (LF), Ivan Rodriguez (C), Wily Mo Pena (CF), Ty Wigginton (2B) and Rich Aurilia/Kevin Millar (1B).

Strengths: It isn't often that you see a $20 million player filling the role of #2 starter.  In fact, this is the first time that has ever happened.  But with the addition of Sabathia, the Irish Rebels have a potentially dominant starting rotation.  Cabrera and Soriano are a couple of monsters in the middle of the lineup, and the bullpen features four quality relievers -- any one of whom could serve well as the team's closer.

Weaknesses: The supporting cast surrounding Cabrera and Soriano is less than awe-inspiring.  Furcal and Markakis are capable setup men, and I-Rod (while nowhere near as valuable as Jim thinks he is) provides decent-enough protection in the five-hole.  But Pena owns a 660 OPS against lefties, and doesn't appear to have a viable platoon mate.  Wigginton owns a .310 OBP against righties, and Aurilia hit just .276/.318/.437 against righties.  When you spend 33% of your total salary on one player (a #2 pitcher, at that), the rest of your team suffers (unless you have a team full of $100,000 all-stars like Los Altos.)  Although this rotation is very good, three of the front four starters are southpaws.  With so many right-handed SUS's being employed throughout the league, it will be interesting to see how that strategy pans out.

Outlook: Jim "Stand Pat" Doyle's mind-boggling decision to spend $20 million on C.C. Sabathia has left this team several players short of a championship-caliber roster.  Already, this decision has cost the franchise three great young players, who were sacrificed to fill the gaping hole behind the plate.  Several more prospects may need to be sacrificed to fill the rest of those holes.  "Stand Pat" was one of only two GM's (Steve Osborne being the other) who didn't make a single trade this winter.  Instead, he chose to save all his money for the big free agent class of 2007.  The Irish Rebels came into this winter with a solid four-man rotation and several gaping holes in the lineup.  With more than $35 million to spend, those holes could have been filled very nicely.  For example, Carlos Delgado, Ray Durham and Ivan Rodriguez cost just $18.5 million TOTAL in the auction.  Yet Doyle spent $1.5 million more than that on just one player without filling any of those holes.  As a result, Manchester heads into the 2007 season with a much weaker team than anticipated.  Despite that, this team is still strong enough to win this division.

Prediction: 1st place.  It's not too late for the Irish Rebels to strengthen that offense, of course.  But it will cost this franchise a bundle in terms of young talent.  Manchester has finished with between 65 and 71 wins in each of the past five seasons, and that trend isn't likely to continue.  This is a very good team, capable of winning 90+ games, and they should be in the playoffs hunt from beginning to end.  The prediction here is that they get off to another one of their patented hot starts, scaring away the rest of the teams in this division, and run away with it despite playing .500 ball the rest of the season.  In the playoffs, Manchester's heavy reliance upon lefty pitchers will spell trouble, and the Irish Rebels will see an early exit.

Ravenswood Infidels

Owner: Brian "Skizm" Potrafka
2006 Record: 66-94 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Roy Halladay, Randy Johnson, Scott Olsen, Brad Penny and Casey Janssen.
Bullpen: Cla Meredith, Brandon Medders, Joe Beimel, Fabio Castro, Jason Frasor, Mike Stanton and Ron Flores.
Projected Lineup: Kenny Lofton (CF), Robinson Cano (2B), Frank Thomas (1B), Edwin Encarnacion (3B), Marcus Thames (RF), Michael Barrett (C), Randy Winn (LF) and Chris Gomez/Jose Valentin (SS).

Strengths: The starting rotation is very strong, led by a Cy Young candidate in Halladay, and backed by three pitchers with sub-4.35 CERA's.  Meredith is death to right-handers (a 300 OPS) in the bullpen, and he has a strong, deep and balanced support staff.

Weaknesses: The Ravenswood offense is not nearly as imposing as its pitching.  Lofton, Cano, Thomas, Encarnacion, Barrett and Thames are quality hitters, but none of them screams "all-star."  And the bottom of the lineup is a bit suspect, with Winn and the shortstop platoon.  Thomas is a huge defensive liability at first, and Gomez (Fr) is the only player on the roster rated at shortstop.  Valentin (rated Ex at second base and Vg at third) will play at shortstop against righties.

Outlook: After taking a year to regroup, the Infidels are back in business.  With this pitching staff, the Infidels should be competitive in 2007.  How competitive they will be remains to be seen.  If Ravenswood decides to "go for it all," they have plenty of good, young players to trade in Cano, Encarnacion, Olsen, Sean Rodriguez and Dellin Betances.  And if the Infidels decide to punt at some point during the season, they have plenty of great trade bait for contending teams in Johnson, Barrett, Lofton and Penny.  So, no matter which way this season goes, they're set up nicely.  The worst-case scenario for them is that they stay 3-5 games out of the race throughout the season.

Prediction: 2nd place.  Look for this team to stay 3-5 games out of the race throughout the season.

Las Vegas Flamingos

Owner: John Bochicchio
2006 Record: 87-73 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Chien-Ming Wang, Doug Davis, Eric Milton, Brett Tomko and Steve Trachsel.
Bullpen: Hector Carrasco, Scott Cassidy, Scott Downs, Saul Rivera, Jose Mesa, Oscar Villarreal and Jamie Walker.
Projected Lineup: Johnny Damon (CF), Bill Mueller (3B), Chase Utley (2B), Mark DeRosa (SS), Hideki Matsui/Luis Gonzalez (LF), Shea Hillenbrand (1B), Juan Encarnacion (RF) and John Buck (C).

Strengths: The best second baseman in baseball.  Utley should once again post all-star numbers while providing Vg defense at the keystone.  And Damon is among the best leadoff hitters in the game, even adding some power to his game this year.

Weaknesses: Pretty much everything else.  Chien-Ming Wang may be a good enough #1 starter for the New York Yankees, but this Flamingos lineup will never be confused with the Bronx Bombers'.  The back end of the rotation is so awful that Eric Milton has been elevated to #3 starter status.  This team should easily post an ERA well above 5.00 this season.  The bullpen lacks a go-to closer, and the lineup is filled with holes.

Outlook: This looks like another consolidation year for Vegas.  With the return of Matsui, and the ascension of Golden Boy Delmon Young in 2008, there is reason for hope not too far in the future.  But 2007 could be a painful year for Flamingo fans.  Unfortunately, there is not much trade bait here to be sacrificed toward the 2008 cause.  Perhaps the best of the lot is Davis, who is capable of eating some quality innings at the back end of some contender's rotation.  With the sudden panic-stricken demand for quality pitching, he shouldn't be too hard a sell.  Like many teams, the Flamingos don't seem to recognize where they are on the success cycle, and waste too much money filling gaps instead of acquiring players with real value.  Vegas spent a whopping $10 million on Luis Gonzalez, Brett Tomko, Eliezer Alfonzo and Saul Rivera in the draft this year.  Those players are not likely to carry this team to the post-season, they're not likely to single-handedly prevent this team from paying a penalty at the end of the year, and they're not likely to earn much in return for trade.  That $10 million could have been much better spent on young players with upside, or on older players with high trade value.  Instead, it was just wasted money.

Prediction: 3rd place.  Realistically, the Flamingos are at least a year away from competing again.  If Matsui returns to health, if Young emerges as an impact player in his rookie year, if Utley and Damon continues to perform at an all-star level, and if this team learns to spend its money wisely, then we'll see a return of the Flamingos to the post-season.  Hey, if nothing else, at least they can rest easy knowing they're not the worst team in this division.  That distinction belongs to the...

Marlboro Hammerheads

Owner: Ken "The Shark" Kaminski
2006 Record: 95-65 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Ramon Ortiz, Rodrigo Lopez, Juan Cruz, Kevin Gregg, Fernando Nieve and David Wells.
Bullpen: Mariano Rivera, Tom Gordon, Darren Oliver, Bryan Corey and Mike Myers.
Projected Lineup: Nomar Garciaparra/Scott Hatteberg (LF), Bobby Abreu (RF), Jason Giambi (1B), Rocco Baldelli (CF), Todd Walker (2B), David Bell (3B), Damian Miller (C) and Neifi Perez (SS).

Strengths: The front four hitters in the lineup each sport an OPS above 800.  And the bullpen is a strength -- at least until the moment Rivera is traded, which should be any minute now.

Weaknesses: This starting rotation may actually be worse than New Milford's, which is really an amazing statement.  With three first basemen, two of them will have to play out of position on defense in order to hit in the lineup.  And the bottom third of this lineup is just about as weak as it gets.  Neifi Perez...ugh.

Outlook: The Hammerheads went into this winter with only two eligible hitters in Jeremy Reed (637 OPS) and Scott Thorman (701), a starting rotation of Jon Lieber and Ramon Ortiz, and a bullpen of Mariano Rivera.  Sharky's bloodlust for shedding salary resulted in a team that was stripped so bare, the defending division champions were reduced to the equivalent of an expansion team.  Unlike the Blazers, the Hammerheads are not carrying any burdensome long-term contracts, and the presence of Phil Hughes on the farm gives the future of this franchise at least a slight glimmer of hope.  For all intents and purposes, this franchise is starting all over again with a completely blank slate.  Although it could be worse, it could also take many, many years before this team is able to compete again.  Like the Blazers, Marlboro treated the free agent auction like the NYSE futures market, buying players, and then immediately attempting to sell them.  Sharky spent $10.5 million on David Ortiz, then flipped him for Giambi, Shane Victorino and Shawn Marcum.  Giambi will soon be flipped as well, so the jury is still out on how wisely that money was spent.  The short-term plan seems to be to trade every warm body on the roster, and then trade those warm bodies for other warm bodies.  And so on.  Ad infinitum.  Time will tell whether the defending OL GM of the Year has a master plan in place, or whether he just enjoys trading for the sake of trading.

Prediction: 4th place.  Expect the Hammerheads and Blazers to battle it out all season long for the coveted title of "Worst Team in the League."  The main goal for both teams will be finishing with 50 wins and avoiding the $5 million penalty.  At this point, a penalty of "only" $3 million would be considered a successful season for either team.  I like Marlboro's odds better than New Milford's, for what that's worth.

Los Altos Undertakers

Owner: Jeff Paulson
2006 Record: 80-80 (tied for 2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Chris Carpenter, Jason Schmidt, Josh Johnson, Jared Weaver and Jeremy Sowers.
Bullpen: Jonathan Broxton, Aaron Heilman, Josh Hancock, Trever Miller and Jon Rauch.
Projected Lineup: Kevin Youkilis (3B), Alex Rios (CF), Michael Young (SS), Adrian Gonzalez (1B), Jonny Gomes/Chris Duncan (RF), Jeremy Hermida/J.D. Drew (RF), Rickie Weeks (2B) and Mike Lieberthal/Gerald Laird (C).

Strengths: A starting rotation of Carpenter, Schmidt, Johnson and Weaver sounds like a nightmare for any playoff-bound team.  It would take a minor miracle (a la the 2004 Cowtippers) to catch all of those guys on an off day in one short series.  With 244 innings available to him, pitching in the Los Altos ballpark (modeled after Petco), Carpenter could break every record in the book.  20 wins is almost a given.  25 wouldn't be a surprise.  30 is well within reach.  As always, the Undertakers feature a suffocating bullpen with specialists of every shape and size.  But what separates this Undertakers team from past incarnations is the offense.  The all-time Los Altos team record for runs scored in a season is 873, set in that magical year of 2000.  With a strong lineup from one through eight, don't be surprised to see that record fall as well.

Weaknesses: No one in the Los Altos lineup is liable to win an MVP or Babe Ruth award.  They are all good hitters, but none of them is is capable of consistently putting a game out of reach with one swing of his bat.  It's not much of a weakness, granted, but I had to fill this space with something.

Outlook: For the past two years, Jeff Paulson has been stockpiling young talent in preparation for this season.  Finally, after all those farm picks, mid-season farm pick-ups and dump trades, the Los Altos Undertakers are in a position to reclaim the division title they lost after the 2004 season.  And, boy, are they set up nicely.  We haven't even begun to enter into the primes of the careers of Hermida, Weaver, Sowers, Weeks, Gonzalez, Rios and Broxton, as they're all 26 years old or younger.  And right behind them, we've got Matt Garza and Mike Pelfrey on the cusp of stardom.  And right behind them, there's B.J.'s little brother Justin, Elvis Andrus, Nick Adenhart and Hunter Pence.  Oh, and did I mention Alex Gordon?  2007 may be the final opportunity ANY of us has to win a BDBL championship for a long, long time.

Prediction: 1st place.  The first of many division championships for the Undertakers begins this year.  The only question is: When will this streak end?  The hip new trend is to spend 33% of your team's total salary on one player, but the Undertakers are the only team who can actually pull it off, thanks to all their minimum-wage superstars.  Los Altos will have no trouble winning this division this year.  And with this pitching staff, they will have no trouble advancing in the post-season, either.  After so many gut-wrenching post-season defeats, Jeff Paulson will finally make it to the World Series in 2007, and at long last he will capture his first -- of what is sure to be many -- BDBL trophies.  You read it here first.

Bear Country Jamboree

Owner: Matt Clemm
2006 Record: 64-96 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: John Lackey, Chris Crapuano, Tim Hudson, Brad Hennessey, Joe Saunders and Paul Maholm.
Bullpen: Francisco Liriano, Chad Bradford, Ramon Ramirez, Matt Thornton, Chad Gaudin, Armando Benitez, Chris Britton and Doug Brocail.
Projected Lineup: Josh Willingham/Jason Varitek (C), Carlos Guillen (SS), Alex Rodriguez (3B), Richie Sexson (1B), Corey Hart/Ross Gload (LF), Matt Kemp/Kevin Mench (RF), Mark Loretta/Jose Vidro (2B) and Jay Payton (CF).

Strengths: For the ninth year in a row, this team's biggest strength is Alex Rodriguez.   When he takes the field on Opening Day, he will have set a new BDBL record for longest tenure with one franchise.  Aside from A-Rod, the Bear Country offense is greatly improved thanks to the resurgence of Sexson, the surprise performance of Willingham and the free agent signing of Guillen.  Lackey is a true #1 starter, and the bullpen is eight-men deep (which will be really handy in games that last longer than 15 innings.)  In an interesting decision, the Jamboree will be using their best starter, Liriano, as their closer this season.  In that role, Liriano could be as dominant as any closer in the league.  The difference between him and every other closer is that he can pitch 2-3 innings per game, and is eligible to pitch up to 22 innings per chapter.  That makes him an incredibly valuable weapon.

Weaknesses: Because Liriano is pitching out of the bullpen, the back end of the rotation is more than a bit weak, with no quality #4 or #5 starter.  The Jamboree believe they can morph Hennessey and Saunders together and make one decent starter, but that remains to be seen.  The bottom half of the lineup is also very weak compared to the other contending teams in the league.  Once you get past the first four spots in the lineup, it's clear sailing the rest of the way.

Outlook: The Jamboree have suffered through two horrific seasons in a row, but the suffering may be over.  If Liriano hadn't missed the final two months of the MLB season (and if the Twins hadn't wasted the first six weeks of the season pitching him out of the bullpen), Bear Country might have had an outside chance of going from worst to first in one year.  As it stands, though, this team just doesn't have the firepower to compete against the Undertakers in this division.

Prediction: 2nd place.  When you compare the Jamboree to the Badgers on paper, New Hope wins on offense, but Bear Country has a slight edge in the starting rotation, and a big edge in bullpen strength.  However, when you consider the unbalanced schedule, New Hope gets the advantage of playing four additional games against the lowly Blazers.  That's four more wins, which will make all the difference in what should be a tight wild card race.  If New Hope and Bear Country switched divisions, Bear Country would be the favorite.  Unfortunately for the Jamboree, the league isn't considering restructuring its divisions any time soon.

Sylmar Padawans

Owner: John Duel
2006 Record: 81-79 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: A.J. Burnett, Jon Garland, Jon Lieber, Tomo Ohka and Kris Benson.
Bullpen: Francisco Rodriguez, Bobby Howry, Brandon League, Macay McBride, Jonathan Sanchez and Elmer Dessens.
Projected Lineup: Carl Crawford (CF), Brandon Phillips (2B), Garrett Atkins (3B), Manny Ramirez (LF), Derrek Lee/Daryle Ward (1B), Juan Rivera (RF), Jason Bartlett/Cesar Izturis (SS) and Miguel Olivo/Javier Valentin (C).

Strengths: As with last year, the strength of this year's team is its bullpen.  Rodriguez is still a lights-out closer, and he is again supported by a strong (though not nearly as strong as last year's) cast of characters.  If the Sylmar Curse doesn't strike him, Ramirez should post MVP-caliber numbers in the middle of the lineup, and Crawford is a fine leadoff hitter, though he may hit half as many triples as he did in MLB, given the difference in ballpark factors (from 200 all the way down to 77.)

Weaknesses: After the trade of Roy Halladay and the free agent defection of Jason Jennings, the starting rotation has been stripped bare.  The team's current de-facto ace, Burnett, is available to pitch only 149 innings this season.  And there is little of impact beyond Burnett.  When Lee is out of the starting lineup (which will be often), this offense may have trouble scoring runs.  Two of the team's best hitters -- Phillips and Atkins -- should see big declines from their MLB power numbers, given the difference in ballpark factors.  And the bottom half of the lineup is about as weak as it gets outside of New Milford and Marlboro.

Outlook: The Padawans won back-to-back division titles in '05 and '06 -- both in the final week of the season -- but Sylmar fans shouldn't expect nearly as much excitement this season.  Although John Duel is looking toward another championship in '07, and has traded away good prospects to reach that goal, he really should be thinking about how his team can keep pace with the Undertakers heading into '08 and '09.  There is reason for optimism in 2008.  If Lee and Burnett are healthy for an entire season, that alone could provide a big boost to this team.  Atkins, Crawford, Rivera, Phillips and K-Rod are signed through the '08 season as well.  If Sylmar can add a pitcher or two this year, they could be in good position to contend once again.  But not this year.

Prediction: 3rd place.  Like the Broncs below, the Pads have a huge mountain to climb before they can return to the playoffs.  That mountain's name is "Mt. Paulson."  If Duel wants to compete in this division (and we all know how badly he does), he needs to sit down and come up with a long-range plan that goes beyond merely patching up the team he has with high-priced veterans like Lieber, Ohka and Ramirez.  The Undertakers are good this year, but they're only going to get better.  Look for the Padawans to settle into third place with somewhere between 55-65 wins.

San Antonio Broncs

Owner: Greg Newgard
2006 Record: 80-80 (tied for 2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Danny Haren, Tom Glavine, Jeff Suppan, Orlando Hernandez and Wandy Rodriguez.
Bullpen: Huston Street, J.J. Putz, Trevor Hoffman, Jason Grilli, Arthur Rhodes and Aaron Fultz.
Projected Lineup: Jose Lopez/Brian Roberts (2B), Adam Dunn (LF), Austin Kearns (RF), Aaron Rowand (CF), Adrian Beltre (3B), Ben Broussard/Dallas McPherson (1B), Yadier Molina/Dave Ross (C) and Adam Everett (SS).

Strengths: Haren has become a real workhorse in the starting rotation, good for 245 innings of pitching goodness.  And the Broncs' bullpen is the 2007 version of the 2006 Slyme (if that makes any sense.)  San Antonio's defense is also very good, with Molina and Ross behind the plate (two Ex arms), Ellis (Vg) at second, Everett (Ex) at short, Rowand (Vg) in center and Kearns (Ex) in right.

Weaknesses: This lineup features a lot of hitters who would feel right at home on the "Three-True-Outcome Ken Phelps All-star" team.  When the home ballpark suppresses everything but home runs, that may not be a bad thing.  Away from home, however, it may make run-scoring a little difficult.  Molina and Everett are among the worst-hitting regulars at their positions, and there really is no one who fits the description of a leadoff hitter or table-setter for those big thumpers.  Despite Haren's presence, this could be the weakest starting rotation in the division.

Outlook: In years past, teams like the Los Altos Undertakers and Sylmar Padawans were able to sneak into the playoffs based on the strength of their bullpen alone.  It looks like the Broncs are attempting to carry on that hallowed Griffin Division tradition.  However, this ain't your slightly older brother's Griffin Division, and teams like the Undertakers and Jamboree aren't going to be defeated by a strong bullpen alone.

Prediction: 4th place.  The Broncs were predicted to finish in last place in this division a year ago, and instead finished just one game out of first place.  Despite that embarrassing gaffe, the same prediction is being made yet again.  If the prediction holds this time, it could be a long and painful rebuilding process for this franchise -- especially considering the Sisyphian task of competing against the Goliath of the BDBL in their own division.  (How's that for two biblical references in one sentence?)  San Antonio doesn't have a lot of trade bait to offer to contending teams.  Glavine's salary ($7.5 million) and age (41)makes him tough to move, and no one else on the club has a great deal of trade value.  Unfortunately, there isn't a lot of quality young players on this roster, either, so if they decide to "go for it," they'll have little to use for reinforcements.  After the frustration of losing the division to the Padawans by one game two years in a row, 2007 could be the most frustrating year yet for the Broncs.

Kansas Law Dogs

Owner: Chris Luhning
2006 Record: 65-95 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Mike Mussina, Aaron Harang, Ted Lilly, Zach Duke, Rich Hill and Wil Ledezma.
Bullpen: Takashi Saito, Fernando Rodney, Chad Qualls, Taylor Tankersley, Brandon McCarthy, Brad Lidge and Brian Bannister.
Projected Lineup: Omar Vizquel (SS), David Wright (3B), Carlos Beltran (CF), Jermaine Dye (RF), Jorge Posada/Bengie Molina (C), Lyle Overbay/Adam LaRoche (1B), Mark Grudzielanek/Jorge Cantu (2B) and David DeJesus (LF).

Strengths: The heart of this lineup is as good as any.  Wright, Beltran, Dye and Posada combined for a whopping 460 runs created in MLB '06.  Only Wapakoneta (Pujols, Guerrero, Tejada and Holliday) has a more fearsome foursome.  This bullpen is also as solid as they come.  Saito can be dominant in the closer's role, and Rodney and Qualls are very capable as setup men.  The one-two punch of Mussina and Harang is excellent as well.

Weaknesses: The back half of the rotation, once you get past the two aces, is a little thin.  Lilly is death on lefties, but right-handers whack him around pretty well.  Duke's numbers against righties are even worse, and he puts the ball in play a lot.  And the bottom-third of the batting lineup leaves a little room for improvement.

Outlook: With the move into their new ballpark (modeled after Camden Yards) two years ago, the days of the Law Dogs scoring 1,200 runs in a season are most likely over.  However, this is the type of offense that will score runs in any environment.  You can't help but feel sorry for opposing pitchers who will be forced to face three MVP candidates in a row.  And with this bullpen, Kansas' 12-29 record in one-run games last year (worst in the BDBL) could easily be reversed this season.  The Law Dogs currently lead the BDBL in VORP, which in the past has been a very good indicator that a team will make it to the post-season.

Prediction: 1st place.  The Law Dogs have the talent to win this division as presently constituted.  However, as mentioned, there is room for improvement in both the rotation and lineup.  Fortunately for Kansas fans, this team has a TON of quality trade bait, including the LaRoche brothers, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Carlos Gonzalez, Kosuke Fukudome, Brian Bannister, Zach Duke, Brandon McCarthy, Anthony Reyes...and the list goes on and on.  The biggest barrier keeping the Law Dogs from the Eck League title is the mid-season VORP cap.  The Eck League championship appears to be up for grabs this season, and given the amount of trade bait the Law Dogs own, they must be considered the favorites to win.  Look for Kansas to take their first Eck League title since 2001, then join a long list of Los Altos victims in the '07 World Series.

Great Lakes Sphinx

Owner: Scott Romonosky
2006 Record: 60-100 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: John Smoltz, Curt Schilling, Freddy Garcia, Vicente Padilla, Boof Bonser and John Maine.
Bullpen: Joel Zumaya, Luis Vizcaino, Bobby Jenks, David Aardsma and Zach Miner.
Projected Lineup: Eric Byrnes (CF), Chad Tracy (3B), Justin Morneau (1B), Troy Glaus (SS), Carlos Lee (LF), Aubrey Huff (RF), Josh Barfield/Chris Burke (2B) and Brian Schneider (C).

Strengths: A very strong starting rotation, featuring two bona fide aces in Smoltz and Schilling, backed by two above-average workhorses in Garcia and Padilla.  Zumaya is a stud in the bullpen, and he's supported by a strong cast of setup men.  And Morneau, Glaus and Lee form a very powerful trio in the middle of the lineup.

Weaknesses: The Sphinx lineup is like the plot of Revenge of the Sith.  It starts out okay, then gets really good in the middle, but by the end, you're like, "What the hell was that?  That annoying little kid and that talking fish with the Jamaican accent destroyed the Trade Federation?...by accident??"  This team went 20 rounds deep into the draft before they had a catcher...which is okay if you're the 2006 Cowtippers, but inexcusable if you're a contending team like the Sphinx.  And it's not like quality catchers haven't been offered on the Selling forum for the past several months, either.  Great Lakes moved into a new ballpark this year, modeled after Texas' Ameriquest Field.  Although the home run factors are a lot lower this year than in the past (105 for LH, 108 for RH), it is still a home run park.  And that doesn't work very well with this pitching staff.  Schilling (1.2 HR/9), Garcia (1.3), Bonser (1.5) and Maine (1.5) all allow home runs at an above-average rate, and they're likely to have a tough time pitching at home this year.

Outlook: Last year, a second-place finish was predicted for the Sphinx on this page, along with the quote, "The Sphinx would have to screw up pretty badly not to make the playoffs."  Well, in case you missed it, Great Lakes finished with 100 losses last year -- only about 35 games shy of the playoffs.  Looking at this team, with two dominant aces, a dominant closer and a powerful offense, it is once again hard to imagine them not making the playoffs.  But I've been wrong before.

Prediction: 2nd place.  The wild card race basically boils down to the Sphinx and the Slyme.  Their starting rotations are about equal, the Slyme's lineup is slightly better, and the Great Lakes bullpen is much better.  So it's a draw.  Their schedules are roughly equal in terms of strength, which leaves only one deciding factor: How much can each team improve itself through trade?  The Sphinx have Lastings Milledge, Thomas Diamond, Kei Igawa and Joel Guzman for trade bait.  The Slyme have Jacoby Ellsbury and...well, that's about it.  Therefore, the slight edge goes to Great Lakes.  With two strong starters, a bullpen ace and a few thumpers in the lineup, the Sphinx could be a very strong playoff team, and the prediction here is that they advance to the ELCS and face their division rivals.

Villanova Mustangs

Owner: Tony Chamra
2006 Record: 101-59 (1st place, BDBL champions)
Projected Rotation: Dontrelle Willis, Matt Morris, Tim Wakefield and Joe Blanton.
Bullpen: Adam Wainwright, Jesse Crain, Alan Embree, Brian Fuentes, Rich Harden, Justin Speier and Brian Sweeney.
Projected Lineup: Jimmy Rollins (SS), Nick Swisher (RF), Brian McCann (C), Travis Hafner (1B), Jim Edmonds/So Taguchi (CF), Matt Diaz (LF), Aaron Hill (2B), Olmedo Saenz (3B).

Strengths: The best catcher and first baseman in the Eck League (and, arguably, the BDBL.)  McCann and Hafner combined for 215 runs created in MLB '06, and they're surrounded by two quality hitters in Swisher and Edmonds.

Weaknesses: What on earth happened to the vaunted Villanova Mustangs pitching staff? Willis, Blanton and Harden were supposed to carry this rotation through the end of the decade.  And Cotts and Crain were supposed to provide dominant relief for the next several years.  Not to mention Greinke and Billingsley and Swarzak and all the other up-and-coming young arms right behind them.  Where did they all go?  It just goes to show that you can never count on pitching -- no matter how much of a sure thing you think you have.  Offensively, Edmonds has become an expensive platoon player, and Ensberg and Dye bolted for free agency, leaving this lineup very thin surrounding McCann and Hafner.

Outlook: The defending champs weren't impacted greatly by free agency, nor did they trade away a lot of '07 talent during their championship run last year (with the exception of Garrett Atkins, who would have fit very nicely on this team, but was well worth the trophy gained by his departure.)  But this team was absolutely decimated by injuries (Harden), regression to the mean (Willis, Blanton), poor performances (Buehrle, Cotts), age (Edmonds) and psychological dysfunction (Greinke.)  You name it, and the Villanova Mustangs suffered from it.  Of course, that suffering is a lot less painful with a trophy in hand.

Prediction: 3rd place.  Despite all the hardships, the Mustangs still have a decent team, and they should finish with a respectable record.  But the competition in this division, and in the EL wild card, probably negates another run at the playoffs this year.  With any luck provided by the Baseball Gods, the Mustangs could easily return to the top in 2008.

Allentown Ridgebacks

Owner: Tom DiStefano
2006 Record: 88-72 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, Felix Hernandez, Horacio Ramirez and Mark Redman.
Bullpen: Salomon Torres, Luke Hudson, J.P. Howell and Latroy Hawkins.
Projected Lineup: Ryan Garko/Wes Helms (1B), Casey Blake/Brian Giles (RF), Moises Alou (LF), Mike Napoli/Kelly Shoppach (C), Cody Ross/Ken Griffey, Jr. (CF), Eric Chavez/Jeff Cirillo/Corey Koskie (3B), Omar Infante (2B) and Subpar-Ronny Cedeno/Jack Wilson (SS).

Strengths: Oswalt, Peavy and Hernandez.  Oswalt, Peavy and Hernandez.  Oswalt, Peavy and Hernandez.  Oswalt, Peavy and Hernandez.

Weaknesses: Pretty much everything else.  The first three spots in the lineup aren't bad, but it goes downhill quickly from there, and ends with the worst hitter in Major League Baseball.

Outlook: After two BDBL championships and five seasons of Eck League domination, the Allentown Ridgebacks are finally in the midst of a rebuilding period.  With Oswalt, Peavy and Hernandez in the rotation, the Ridgebacks are always just a player or two away from another BDBL title.  (And those three will soon be joined by a fourth ace in Tim Lincecum.)  Over the course of the next year, Tom DiStefano will be actively gathering together the pieces of his next championship puzzle.  With the rest of the league spending ridiculous amounts of money on free agents in the auction, the Ridgebacks used their #1 draft slot to collect a number of former MLB all-star veterans at very reasonable salaries, in the hope that some -- or all -- of them will bounce back and put this team back into contention as early as 2008.  Regardless of how those veterans pan out, don't expect this to be a lengthy rebuilding period in Allentown.

Prediction: 4th place.  The last time the Ridgebacks occupied last place in this division, Bill Clinton was still sitting in the Oval Office (and Monica Lewinsky was sitting under his desk), the Yankees were the World Champs (for the fourth time in five years), the World Trade Center was still standing, and Felix Hernandez was a precocious 14-year-old playing sandlot ball in Venezuela.  Imagine how much the world will have changed the next time the Ridgebacks occupy last place.  We may all be driving flying cars and living on the moon by then.

Nashville Funkadelic

Owner: Steve Osborne
2006 Record: 71-89 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Greg Maddux, Jason Jennings, Nate Robertson, Aaron Sele and Paul Byrd.
Bullpen: Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek, Todd Coffey, Chris Sampson, George Sherrill and Hong-Kong Kuo.
Projected Lineup: Ichiro Suzuki (RF), Jose Reyes (SS), Jason Bay (LF), Ryan Howard (1B), Chipper Jones (3B), Curtis Granderson (CF), Ramon Hernandez (C) and Tad Iguchi (2B).

Strengths: Bay and Howard are probably the best #3/#4 hitters in the BDBL, combining for 243 runs created in MLB '06.  And with the Funk allowing the hapless Blazers to spend $8.5 million on their behalf in the auction, the addition of Jones gives Nashville three MVP-caliber hitters in the middle of this lineup.  Those three are fronted by two very capable leadoff men in Ichiro and Reyes, who combined for 418 hits in MLB last year.  The bullpen includes THREE pitchers with CERAs under 2.00: Nathan (1.18), Neshek (1.68) and Sampson (1.84.)  All three have WHIP ratios under 1.00 as well.  And Nathan and Neshek have K/9 ratios over 13.0.

Weaknesses: The back end of the rotation is extremely thin.  Robertson allowed an average of 1.2 HR/9 while pitching in a ballpark with home run factors of 90 for lefties and 80 for righties.  In the Funk's home park, modeled after Cinergy Field (119/123), he could see his ERA rise by more than a run.  Sele (0.9 HR/9) pitched in Dodger Stadium in MLB, where the HR factors are 81/89.  Byrd posted a 5.43 CERA and allowed 1.2 HR/9 while pitching in Cleveland (park factors of 103/78.)  Nashville has a history of acquiring pitchers from drastic pitchers' parks, placing them in one of the worst pitcher's parks in baseball, and then complaining about their sub-par performances.  That pattern doesn't look to change in 2007.

Outlook: The Funk had a lot of holes to fill this winter.  Their starting rotation needed a lot of help, and they needed a quality third baseman and catcher as well.  But with a whopping $34.4 million to spend, it seemed like that would be enough to get the job done.  But that was before anyone realized just how insane the free agent spending frenzy would be in 2007.  After losing $20 million bids on Chris Carpenter and (yes) C.C. Sabathia, Funkadelic GM Steve Osborne "won" the bid for Maddux, who ended up costing $12.5 million -- or about twice as much as expected for a 41-year-old who ranked 56th among pitchers in VORP last year.  The "Winner's Curse" struck again with the signing of Jennings at the whopping sum of $15.5 million.  Nashville also placed a $20 million bid on Ramon Hernandez (seriously), and won the bidding at the relatively bargain-basement price of $5.5 million, filling the void behind the plate.  And the Blazers then graciously filled Nashville's final hole at the hot corner by trading an MVP candidate for David Dellucci, Hong-Chi Kuo and two players who have yet to play professional baseball in America.

Prediction: 1st place.  Nashville could score more than 900 runs this season, and despite spending $28 million on just two starting pitchers this winter, they could surrender nearly as many.  But they are the best of a relatively weak lot, and they should have little trouble winning this division.

Southern Cal Slyme

Owner: Bob Sylvester, Sr.
2006 Record: 95-65 (2nd place, EL wild card)
Projected Rotation: Roger Clemens, Jose Contreras, Ervin Santana, Josh Beckett and Anibal Sanchez.
Bullpen: Russ Springer, Dan Kolb, Dave Borkowski, Brendan Donnelly, Rick Helling and Kurt Birkins.
Projected Lineup: Ryan Zimmerman (3B), Reed Johnson (RF), Paul Konerko (1B), Jeff Kent (2B), Victor Martinez (C), Hanley Ramirez (SS), Torii Hunter (CF) and Raul Ibanez/Preston Wilson (LF).

Strengths: A very strong and deep starting rotation featuring five pitchers with CERAs below 4.30.  For half a season, Clemens will be among the top pitchers in the league.  And the Slyme offense is extremely strong, with good hitters at every position from one through eight.

Weaknesses: The SoCal bullpen is...oh, what's the word I'm looking for?  Is "putrid" too strong?  Let's just say it is very bad.  This team may lose a lot of one-run games this season.  And their ace, Clemens, is only available to pitch half the season, leaving a slightly less exciting rotation in his absence.

Outlook: The Slyme are in an interesting position due to the presence of Clemens.  If this team is within three games of first place after a couple of chapters, it is likely that Clemens stays put.  But if the Slyme get off to a slow start, it's possible that we could see yet another Roger Clemens Sweepstakes.  On the negative side, Clemens is only available to pitch nine innings per series in the playoffs, and would have little impact to a borderline contender given his limited regular-season usage.  On the plus side, Clemens' relatively low VORP of 41.9 makes him easier to move.

Prediction: 2nd place.  The prediction here is that Clemens is traded to Cleveland for Troy Tulowitzki by the end of Chapter Two.  You read it here first.

Wapakoneta Hippos

Owner: Bobby Sylvester, Jr.
2006 Record: 80-80 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Dave Bush, Brad Radke, Mark Hendrickson, Mark Buehrle, Mike O'Connor and Tom Gorzelanny.
Bullpen: Jonathan Papelbon, Geoff Geary, Todd Wellemeyer and Damaso Marte.
Projected Lineup: Mark Teahen (3B), Matt Holliday (LF), Albert Pujols (1B), Vlad Guerrero (RF), Miguel Tejada (SS), Willy Taveras (CF), A.J. Pierzynski (C), Placido Polanco/Kaz Matsui (2B) and Alex Gonzalez (SS.)

Strengths: Pujols, Guerrero and Tejada combined for 370 runs created in MLB '06, which is tops in the BDBL for any three hitters in any lineup.  (And if you add Holliday, you have the BDBL's top foursome.  And if you add Teahen...well, you get the point.)  Papelbon is probably the best closer in the league as well, and he's backed by some quality setup men.

Weaknesses: Once you get past the ace (Bush), this starting rotation is damn near pathetic.  And really, even the ace isn't all that special.  The Hippos gave up a tremendous amount of minor league talent to add Buehrle and Hendrickson to this rotation, but it's difficult to imagine why, as neither pitcher is likely to do more than provide sub-par innings.  The Hippos hope that the poor quality of the starting rotation will be negated by their stellar bullpen and powerful offense, but that remains to be seen.

Outlook: It is tough to win without starting pitching.  It's been done before (Los Altos in both 1999 and 2000, New Hope in 2005 and 2006, etc.), but it normally requires an unusually strong bullpen and unusually weak competition within the division.  The competition in this division is not overly strong, but the Hippos bullpen (once you get past Papelbon) isn't overly strong, either.

Prediction: 3rd place.  With Guerrero providing protection in the lineup, and Teahen and Holliday setting the table, Pujols could drive in 180 runs this season.  But it still wouldn't be enough to win this division.  Unless the Hippos trade for a starting pitcher or two, look for them to finish a few games under .500.

South Carolina Sea Cats

Owner: Tony DeCastro
2006 Record: 97-63 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Kevin Millwood, Clay Hensley, Chuck James and Esteban Loaiza.
Bullpen: Scott Shields, Juan Rincon, Matt Capps, Rheal Cormier.
Projected Lineup: Matt Murton (LF), Nick Johnson (1B), Andruw Jones (CF), Reggie Sanders/Corey Patterson (RF), Ian Kinsler (2B), Hank Blalock (3B), Paul Lo Duca/Mike Rivera (C) and Jamie Carroll/Royce Clayton (SS). 

Strengths: The Sea Cats lineup from one through three is very strong, with high-OBP hitters Murton and Johnson setting up the slugger Jones.  The bullpen is also a strength, with Shields sporting a 2.48 CERA and 601/621 splits.  Rincon (523 OPS vs. LH) could serve as closer as well.

Weaknesses: The starting rotation is very weak, with Millwood serving as the de facto ace.  Because of all the money the Sea Cats tied up last year en route to their division title, they were left with only $10.3 million to spend on 10 players this winter.  And in this market, that's not enough to buy one #3 starter, never mind two or three of them.  The lineup is weak as well, once you get past the front three.  The season-long injury to Sheffield (who is raking in $11.5 million for his 166 PA's) didn't help much.  Both the starting rotation and bullpen lacks innings in a big way.  How the Sea Cats will get through an entire season with the pitching they have is a bit of a mystery.

Outlook: The defending division champs have their work cut out for them in 2007.  With the injury to Sheffield, the trades of Andy Pettitte and Curt Schilling, and the poor performances of Jones, Blalock and Millwood, this team little resembles the team that won this division a few months ago.  If they decide to bow out of the race, they'll have some very good trade bait in free-agents-to-be Johnson, Millwood, Rincon and Shields.

Prediction: 4th place.  Worst to first in 2006.  First to worst in 2007.  This is nothing new for the Sea Cats, and if the pattern holds, we'll be seeing another division championship in '08.

Cleveland Rocks

Owner: Mike Stein
2006 Record: 71-89 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Derek Lowe, Kenny Rogers, Woody Williams, Cliff Lee and Jamie Shields.
Bullpen: Billy Wagner, Rafael Betancourt, Kiko Calero, Keith Foulke, David Riske, Brian Shouse and Bob Wickman.
Projected Lineup: Freddy Sanchez (3B), Gary Matthews (CF), Jim Thome (1B), Pat Burrell (LF), Bill Hall (SS), Josh Bard/Russ Martin (C), Dan Uggla (2B) and Jacque Jones (RF).

Strengths: A very, very strong lineup.  Six of the eight regulars in this lineup have an overall OPS above 850, and all eight have OPS's above 800.  Against lefties, this team could average eight runs per game, with Bard, Burrell, Hall, Martin, Matthews and Sanchez all sporting 900+ OPS's.  As always, the Cleveland bullpen is very strong as well, led by �ber-closer Wagner.

Weaknesses: The Rocks went into this winter's auction/draft with just $3.5 million to spend -- less than any other team in the BDBL.  When your #3 starter is named "Woody," that's not a good thing.  (In fact, with a "Woody" and a "Cliff", the Rocks are just a "Sam" and a "Norm" away from an All-Cheers rotation.)  This team was so desperate for a warm body for their rotation, they allowed the Blazers to wriggle out of their mistake and traded for the 42-year-old Rogers, who will cost $10.5 million in 2008.  But even that acquisition is probably not enough.  While the Cleveland offense may score 950 runs this season, they may allow 800-plus.  And while the Rocks offense is very strong against left-handers, it is not nearly as imposing against righties.  Burrell, Hall, Matthews and Sanchez each see an OPS drop of over 100 points against righties, and only Thome and Bard own OPS's over 900 against right-handers.

Outlook: Now that the Blazers have finally triumphed over the "Curse of Jose Rosado," only two BDBL teams remain that have yet to play post-season baseball: the Great Lakes Sphinx and the Cleveland Rocks.  Both teams could very well end that distinction this season.  For Cleveland, it boils down to one question: Can this offense score so many runs, and can this bullpen win so many close games, that the poor quality of the starting rotation becomes irrelevant?  If not, does this team have enough trade bait to go out and get a much-needed arm (or two) for the rotation?  Right now, Troy Tulowitzki is this team's only top-100 prospect.  He may not be enough. 

Prediction: 1st place.  Look for Tulo to be sacrificed early, as Mike Stein throws everything he has toward the goal of finally playing some November baseball in the BDBL.  Unfortunately, Cleveland's playoff fever may not last long.  Offense-heavy teams haven't fared well in the BDBL playoffs, historically, so look for a first-round exit for the Rocks.

Akron R�che

Owner: D.J. Shepard
2006 Record: 97-63 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Bronson Arroyo, Javier Vazquez, Justin Verlander and Taylor Buchholz.
Bullpen: Mike Gonzalez, Pedro Feliciano, Ruddy Lugo, Duaner Sanchez, Wes Littleton, Brian Tallet, Carlos Villanueva, Joel Peralta, Gary Majewski.
Projected Lineup: Milton Bradley (RF), Ryan Freel (2B), Todd Helton (1B), Cory Sullivan (CF), Emil Brown (LF), Brandon Inge (3B), Jhonny Peralta (SS) and Johnny Estrada (C).

Strengths: The Ryche had their lineup completely set before the draft even began, and had a well-stocked bullpen and starting rotation in place as well.  While there are no MVP candidates in this lineup, there are no glaring weaknesses, either.  And while the Ryche aren't likely to lead the league in run-scoring, as they did in 2006, they should be able to score 750-800 runs, easily.  The additions of Feliciano, Sanchez, Lugo and Littleton in the auction and draft gives this bullpen more depth than any bullpen reasonably needs.  In fact, the Ryche will have a better bullpen on their inactive roster than some teams have on their active rosters.

Weaknesses: Boy, is it strange not to see Pedro Martinez's name in that rotation above.  No longer do the Ryche have Pedro to carry them to the post-season almost single-handedly.  Like several teams, Akron spent the winter trying desperately to sign a free agent pitcher.  With $31.5 million to spend, and only one hole in the lineup to fill (at first base), D.J. Shepard figured he would be able to add a big-name ace to the rotation to fill the Grand Canyon-sized crater left by Pedro's departure.  But he lost a $20 million bid on Johan Santana, then a $17.5 million bid on Chris Carpenter, a $13 million bid on C.C. Sabathia, a $7.5 million bid on Greg Maddux, a $6 million bid on Kenny Rogers, an $8.5 million bid on Ben Sheets, a $12 million bid on John Smoltz, a $6 million bid on Tom Glavine and a $10.5 million bid on Jason Jennings.  After missing out on the opportunity to re-acquire Martinez, he was resigned to filling that spot with Taylor Buchholz in the second round of the draft.  Yet, despite all those problems, the starting rotation is still strong.  It just isn't as strong as it could have been if ANY of those bids had won.

Outlook: The Ryche have the kind of team that could surprise a lot of people by winning this division despite not looking overly dominant on paper.  By far, Akron has the strongest pitching staff in the division.  And the lineup is not bad at all.  The Rocks have a much better lineup, but what really separates the two teams is Mike Stein's willingness to trade away his future in exchange for one shot at the trophy.  D.J. has been to the big dance plenty of times already, and in the past, he's been reluctant to part with any future talent in exchange for a quick fix.  So in terms of '07, you have to give the nod to Cleveland, based on sheer hunger alone.

Prediction: 2nd place.  The Ryche could very easily slip into the wild card picture if the Black Sox bow out of the race early.  Akron is a virtual lock to finish with anywhere between 82 and 92 wins.  But with strong competition from Cleveland in the division, and Great Lakes and Southern Cal in the wild card race, the Ryche will fall just short of the playoffs for only the second time in the last seven years.

Chicago Black Sox

Owner: John Gill
2006 Record: 70-90 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Carlos Zambrano, Jeff Francis, Barry Zito, Adam Loewen and Chan Ho Park.
Bullpen: Francisco Cordero, Scott Schoeneweis, Danys Baez and Jorge Julio.
Projected Lineup: Juan Pierre (LF), Jason Kendall (C), Vernon Wells (CF), Mark Teixeira (1B), Aramis Ramirez (3B), Magglio Ordonez (RF), Khalil Greene (SS) and Luis Castillo (2B).

Strengths: The Black Sox have always had a tradition of great hitting, and that tradition continues in 2007.  There is a solid hitter at every position in the lineup from one through six.  And the front three in the starting rotation is as good as any in franchise history.

Weaknesses: Pitching has never been a priority in Chicago, but this year more than ever, the Black Sox pitching staff is suffering from severe neglect.  Beyond the front three, the back end of the rotation includes Loewen (112 IP, 4.70 CERA) and Park (137 IP, 4.62) -- two pitchers who don't belong on a championship-caliber roster.  And the bullpen includes just four quality pitchers with just 252 innings combined.  This team simply doesn't have enough innings to get through a season -- never mind compete.

Outlook: Last year, the Black Sox threw in the towel well before anyone anticipated.  Will they do the same in '07?  With a farm club that includes Yovanni Gallardo, Chris Volstad, Billy Rowell, Felix Pie, Fernando Martinez, Jarrod Saltalamaccia, Travis Snyder and Evan Longoria, the Black Sox certainly have enough ammo if they choose to go for it.  And if they choose once again to wave the white flag, they have some decent trade bait in Ramirez and Ordonez.  At some point, you'd think that the constant rebuilding mode would get tiring after a while, but John Gill has always been a very patient man.

Prediction: 3rd place.  The prediction here is that the Black Sox once again enter rebuilding mode early in the season after getting off to one of their traditional slow starts.  If Gill trades a couple of those youngsters for a pitcher, though, all bets are off.

Atlanta Fire Ants

Owner: Gene Patterson
2006 Record: 66-94 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Jamie Moyer, Jaret Wright, Cory Lidle, Ricky Nolasco, Claudio Vargas, Casey Fossum and Enrique Gonzalez.
Bullpen: Jason Isringhausen, Chris Ray, Rick Bauer, Todd Jones and Kevin Correia.
Projected Lineup: Edgar Renteria (SS), Jeff Francoeur (CF), Carlos Delgado (1B), Joe Crede (3B), Craig Monroe (LF), Ryan Church/Xavier Nady (RF), Todd Greene/Yorvit Torrealba/Greg Zaun (C), Wily Aybar/Marcus Giles (2B).

Strengths: The Fire Ants have three hitters with .500+ slugging percentages in the middle of the lineup.  And...well, that's about it.

Weaknesses: The rotation, the bullpen and about 7/9ths of the lineup are filled with below-average players.  That's not good.

Outlook: The Fire Ants finished in last place five years in a row before winning the wild card in 2005.  Then, they went right back into the cellar again.  What this franchise needs is a master plan.  They need to figure out where they are in the success cycle, then plan accordingly.  Right now, it seems like Atlanta is stuck in the same cycle as MLB franchises like Kansas City and Pittsburgh, where instead of stockpiling young players with some upside, they instead plug holes with expensive, past-their-prime free agents in an attempt to field a competitive team.  It's like riding around in a leaky raft and patching the holes with duct tape.  It'll keep you from drowning (at least temporarily), but you won't get very far.  The Fire Ants spent $30 million this winter, but you'd never know it from looking at this team.  $12.5 million of that money went to Delgado and Renteria -- two good bargains at those prices, but neither is likely to carry this team to the playoffs, and neither is likely to fetch a lot in return at the trade table.  Then, in the draft, good money was spent on aging mediocrities like Zaun, Isringhausen, Fossum and Jones.  Those players aren't likely to ever help this team in any way.  All they can do is provide enough innings and at-bats to get through this season.  Frankly, there are much better ways to spend $17 million.  The Fire Ants also had more than $30 million to spend last winter.  And that money went to mediocre, aging veterans like Craig Monroe, Cory Lidle, Mike Lieberthal, Kip Wells, Xavier Nady, Joe Kennedy, Guillermo Mota, Heath Bell and Wade Miller.  At some point, this team needs to sit down and draw up a two-year plan involving the acquisition of young players with MLB experience and upside, and maximizing every penny spent on salary.  Until that happens, this vicious cycle may never end.

Prediction: 4th place.  In general, the players with the highest trade value in the BDBL (or in any league, really) are #1 starters and closers.  Unfortunately for the Fire Ants, they have neither.  The biggest trade chit Atlanta owns is Delgado, and unfortunately, most contending teams already own good-hitting first basemen.  Moyer may have some value, too, in this pitching-depressed market.  The Fire Ants need to have a lot of things go right if they're going to get back to the playoffs at some point soon.  Church and Aybar have to get a chance to play.  Bobby Crosby has to get healthy.  Francoeuer has to learn the difference between a ball and a strike.  Giles has to rebound.  Ian Stewart needs to take a step up instead of three steps back.  And this team has to find some decent pitching somewhere -- and a lot of it.  It's going to take a lot of work, but it can be done with a little economic planning and some luck.