November, 2015

2015 Playoffs Preview

A few notes from our Statistical Guru, Greg Newgard:

In light of all the discussion about adding another wildcard to our playoff system, in 16 seasons, no wildcard has even won the championship. Eight wildcards have made it to the Series, but none has ever managed to win it.

This playoff season features two BDBL franchises that have never won a playoff game. The Las Vegas Flamingos were swept twice in '01 and '09 while Cleveland whiffed in their lone '07 appearance. The often-renamed New York Giants are the only other franchise that has not won a playoff series to date. They did, however, win a pair of playoff games, losing in Game Five back in the inaugural 1999 season, which wasn't managed by Jim.

Despite a league-best 13th postseason appearance this season, Salem has gone 12-12 in their postseason series history. The twelve lost series is easily the league's worst mark, as Los Altos is next closest with nine. But Salem's twelve series wins is also third best. If the Cowtippers get to the World Series, they'll pass the Corona franchise, which has won thirteen postseason series (mostly from the Zoots era.) Wyoming leads the BDBL with eighteen postseason series wins.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	105-55	791	606	185	57-23	48-32	.766	.733	.780	3.27	.674	.661	.683
	96-64	727	572	155	54-26	42-38	.740	.721	.748	3.31	.660	.674	.648

It wasn't supposed to be this way. The narrative coming into this season was that after four long and torturous years, the New Milford Blazers would finally stumble and fall out of contention. When the Salem Cowtippers added both Buster Posey and Freddie Freeman to a lineup that was already stacked with all-stars, the prevailing sentiment was that 2015 would finally see the return of the Cowtippers to the top of the division for the first time since 2008. Instead, 2015 simply gave us more of the same.

Having been stripped of their physics-defying home ballpark, New Milford was supposed to display some regression to the norm. They did, to a small extent: from 64 home wins to 57. They compensated for that deficit by winning six more games on the road in 2015. The Blazers were also supposed to see a drop-off in offensive production after losing Robinson Cano and James Loney to trade and free agency, and with Shin-Soo Choo suffering through a miserable MLB season. Instead, the Blazers ranked #2 in the entire BDBL in runs scored, with 791, trailing only the mighty Undertakers in that category.

How did Anthony Peburn pull off this magic trick? For starters, the Blazers led the entire BDBL in batting average on balls in play (.320) -- 21 points above league average. This is the FIFTH year in a row that the Blazers have led the entire BDBL in this category. This cannot be a coincidence, and it can no longer be dismissed as an aberration caused by New Milford's home ballpark. Peburn has discovered some important bug built into the DMB software, and he has exploited it masterfully for the past five years. As a result, his teams benefits from 20% more bloopers, bleeders, and tricklers than the average team. That is a HUGE advantage.

New Milford was a completely different team in the second half of the season. In nearly every facet of the game, the Blazers improved dramatically over their first half performance:

A 41% increase in home runs! A 21% increase in runs scored! A 12% drop in ERA! This is almost difficult to believe. What could have possibly caused this to happen?

Let's begin with a little trade that was announced on May 13th, just before the all-star break. In that deal, New Milford added a closer and a pair of MVP-caliber sluggers named Steven Pearce and Jayson Werth. To say that the deal worked out well for New Milford would be the Understatement of the Year. Pearce (.342/.406/.695) proceeded to hit like a vintage Barry Bonds in the second half. He smacked 14 homers in only 74 game, drove in 46 runs, created nearly 56 runs, and posted a IPAVG of -- get this -- .398.

Werth hit a relatively meager .261/.337/.431, with 26 doubles, 8 homers, 56 runs scored, and 34 ribbies. He created 47 runs in 73 games. Put the two of them together, and Pearce and Werth created 103 runs over the equivalent of a full season. Not a bad haul for a bunch of B-grade prospects.

And then, there was this bizarre performance:

Believe it or not, that's Drew Stubbs. David Peralta (.369/.394/.594, .413 IPAVG in 198 PA's) also had a monster second half, as did Jed Lowrie (.313/.367/.482, .356) and Rickie Weeks (.293/.379/.480, .352).

Drew Stubbs...David Peralta...Jed Lowrie...Rickie Weeks...equals a powerhouse lineup? Apparently so.

Finally, there were the second half showings by these two:

You would think that going from an MLB ballpark that is extremely favorable to right-handers (Coors: 110-114-123-120) to a BDBL home park that is below-average for righties across the board (Nestle Field: 97-98-93-90) would have hurt Tulo's performance to some degree. You'd be wrong.

And what to make of Castro? How does any hitter display such a drastic improvement across the board from one half to the next? Did he review some video and find a flaw in his swing? Did he start eating better? Did New Milford's hitting coach put in extra work with him in the tunnels?

Bizarre and inexplicable second-half improvements, unlikely performances by mediocre players, a fortuitous trade that lands two MVP bats in New Milford's lap, and a mysterious abnormality in a statistic that is supposed to reflect nothing but sheer luck. That is your 2015 New Milford Blazers in a nutshell.

Then, there are the Cowtippers. Winners of 96 games, and nothing but another OL wild card to show for it. It has now been SEVEN YEARS since Salem won a division title. George W. Bush was still president the last time the Cowtippers hoisted a division banner. What, if anything, went wrong for the Cowtippers this year?

The fate of Salem's season was decided in Chapter Two, when the Cowtippers suffered through a bizarre chapter in which they lost four out of six one-run games -- usually in true circus-like fashion -- and finished with an astounding 12-16 record. It was the type of stumble that happens to even the best of teams -- except the Blazers, evidently.

That chapter put Salem four games behind New Milford in the division. The 'Tippers spent the rest of the year chasing New Milford, catching up with them briefly, only to see the Blazers pull away from the pack once more.

It isn't so much that the Cowtippers had a poor season; it was merely disappointing, considering the high expectations with which they began this season. A lineup stacked with MVP-caliber bats ended up scoring only 727 runs -- fourth in the BDBL behind even the Las Vegas Flamingos. Freddie Freeman, who was thought to be an impact bat when he was acquired, hit just 8 home runs on the season, and slugged just .387. Ian Desmond -- who was acquired two years ago in exchange for Anthony Rizzo -- turned in his second disappointing season in a row, and hit just .236/.313/.387 while batting out of the #9 spot.

With the Cowtippers changing their home ballpark to a more pitcher-friendly model, perhaps we should have expected to see less offense this season. But then, how do we explain the performance of the Salem pitching staff? If Sam Adams Stadium hurt Salem's hitters, then surely, it should have benefitted the pitchers. Instead, the Cowtippers posted a higher ERA (3.31) than the Blazers (3.27), who play in a much better hitter's park. Despite home ballpark factors of 75/88, nearly every Cowtippers pitcher on the staff surrendered more home runs in the BDBL than they did in MLB.

The worst offender, of course, was Stephen Strasburg. His performance this year looked more like a back-of-the-rotation innings eater than the Cy Young contender he was supposed to be:

Perhaps Salem's biggest problem this year (and obviously their biggest problem this postseason) is that they just couldn't beat the Blazers. They began the season by losing three of four in the Opening Day Series, which included two extra-innings losses. When the series shifted to Salem, they didn't perform any better, losing three of four once more. New Milford also took three of four, in New Milford, when the teams met for the third time. It was only until the final series -- a pointless series where both teams were more concerned with usage than winning -- that Salem prevailed, winning three of four.

Five of Salem's ten losses to New Milford this season have been decided by one run, and two others were decided by two runs, so it's not like the Cowtippers have been drastically overmatched. Still, a 6-10 overall record is daunting, as is New Milford's 6-2 record against Salem at Nestle's Field. Salem's presumptive Game One starter, Max Scherzer, started four games against the Blazers this season and failed to earn a win in any of them. Strasburg has been pounded by New Milford (6.20 ERA) in his four starts against them, and Matt Shoemaker (8.35) has been pounded even harder.

On the flip side, New Milford's ace, Clayton Kershaw, has had little difficulty handling a Salem lineup that is supposed to destroy left-handers. He's posted a 1.98 ERA against Salem this season. Kyle Lohse (3.00), Masahiro Tanaka (4.07), and Jose Quintana (4.32) have also fared well against Salem. With Tanaka able to pitch an unlimited number of innings in the postseason, that gives New Milford yet another advantage.

It wasn't supposed to be like this, and yet, it is what it is. So, for the third time in league history, the Blazers and Cowtippers will face off in the playoffs in what will be the rubber match of this age-old rivalry. Unless something historically strange occurs, the winner of this series will then have the honor of being steamrolled by the Los Altos Undertakers in the OLCS.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	106-54	722	491	231	56-24	50-30	.751	.751	.751	2.83	.613	.640	.591
	90-70	684	654	30	48-32	42-36	.714	.751	.703	3.87	.720	.712	.725

If this ELDS matchup looks familiar, it's with good reason. Last year, on this very same page, I concluded that this was the biggest mismatch of all the Division Series matches, and that "given SoCal's dominance over Chicago during the regular season, it looks like an uphill battle in the Division Series for the Black Sox." Naturally, Chicago pulled off the upset of the year and knocked the #1-seeded Slyme out of the playoffs in six games.

Once again, this looks like a classic mismatch on paper. The Slyme coasted into first place in the very first week of the season and never looked back. They held a double digit lead in the Person Division after just one chapter of play, and ended up winning their eighth division title by twenty six games. They won 100+ game for the third year in a row and the seventh time in franchise history. They outscored their opponents by 231 runs -- 71 more runs than the next best differential in the Eck League. Basically, they were the Harlem Globetrotters, playing against a league full of Washington Generals.

SoCal ranked third in the EL in runs scored. Four different Slyme hitters finished the season with 100+ runs created, led by Jose Abreu, with 148.3. Abreu (.339/.396/.634, 43 doubles, 42 HR, 143 RBI) had an MVP-caliber season following his winter acquisition from the St. Louis Apostles. It was a Thanksgiving Day deal that resulted in a bounty for the Slyme and a bunch of leftovers (J.P. Crawford, Brandon Belt, Jarrod Parker, and Aroldis Chapman) for the Apostles.

Another off-season deal by GM Bob Sylvester netted another MVP-caliber bat in Robinson Cano (.356/.405/.522, 21 HR, 129 RC.) The longtime Blazers star was added that same day in exchange for Masahiro Tanaka. Kyle Seager (.300/.373/.503, 29 HR, 109.9 RC) and Andrew McCutchen (.265/.359/.455, 41 doubles 19 HR, 100.9 RC) rounded out the rest of the 100-RC Club.

As impressive as the Slyme's offense was, it was their pitching and defense that carried this team to an easy division title. They led the league in fielding percentage, and committed only 77 errors all season. Had it not been for the ridiculous Los Altos Undertakers, the Slyme would have demolished the old BDBL record for team ERA this season. SoCal finished with a 2.83 team ERA, which would have beat the old record of 3.00 by a mile. Because Los Altos finished with a ludicrous 2.62 ERA, however, the Slyme will have to settle for the all-time Eck League record.

Adam Wainwright -- yet another winter acquisition by Sylvester -- turned in a Cy Young worthy performance, going 26-3 with a 2.14 ERA. It is the fifth most wins by any pitcher in a single season (tying two others), and the sixth lowest ERA. Longtime SoCal ace Felix Hernandez (17-7, 2.65 ERA, 281 K in 251+ IP) served as the league's best #2 starter -- possibly in league history. Lance Lynn (10-11, 3.87 ERA in 207 IP) and Tanner Roark (18-7, 3.94 in 196+) ably filled the back end of the rotation.

Four different SoCal relievers posted a sub-2.00 ERA in 20+ innings this season: Greg Holland (0.71 in 38 IP), Dellin Betances (1.50 in 30), Fernando Abad (1.59 in 22+), and Scott Atchison (1.72 in 68.) Eight different relievers recorded at least one save -- a category in which the Slyme led the entire BDBL.

In stark contrast to the Slyme's 2015 season, the Chicago Black Sox struggled every step of the way and barely earned a spot in the postseason in their final series of the season. As we have seen time and again in Chicago, the Sox stumbled out of the gate and finished the first chapter with a division-worst 12-16 record. They continued to struggle in Chapter Two (13-15), and wrapped up the first half of the season with a 38-42 record -- a dozen games away from the division leader, and seven games behind in the wild card race.

To his credit, GM John Gill refused to give up. At the all-star break, he made his big move, acquiring Miguel Cabrera from the Bear Country Jamboree in exchange for Prince Fielder. The Black Sox responded by going a mediocre 13-11 in Chapter Four.

Something seemed to click after that point, however. Over the final two chapter, Chicago posted a remarkable .696 winning percentage (39-17), which led all Eck League teams, and every team in the BDBL with the exception of the Undertakers.

The Black Sox led the Eck League in runs scored over the final two chapters, with Ian Kinsler (.307/.342/.496), Cabrera (.302/.342/.507), Jacoby Ellsbury (.269/.329/.440), and Kole Calhoun (.249/.27/.450) leading the way. Calhoun (.291/.345/.545, 25 HR, 91.9 RC overall) led the team in runs created and slugging, while David Ortiz (.228/.318/.493 overall) led the team in home runs (39) and RBI's (97).

Chicago managed to win a spot in the playoffs despite their pitching. The Black Sox ranked just eighth in the Eck League in ERA (3.87). They allowed more hits (1,463) than innings pitched (1,437+). They ranked ninth in OPS against (.720), and they nearly led the league in blown saves (25).

Jordan Zimmerman (15-11, 3.10 ERA in 217+ IP) and Jeff Samardzija (13-8, 3.29 in 238) pulled most of the weight for the Chicago staff this season. Madison Bumgarner (16-13, 3.99 in 237) had a rather mediocre season, although he was terrific (7-4, 2.87 ERA in 91 IP) down the stretch. In the bullpen, Tom Wilhelmsen ranked third in the EL in saves (31), but also blew eight saves on the season.

As with last year, the Black Sox face an uphill battle against the Slyme. Chicago went just 3-9 against SoCal during the regular season. They do have four good lefty bats (Calhoun, Ortiz, Ellsbury, and Bryce Harper) to throw against SoCal's all-righty rotation, but that doesn't seem to be much of an advantage. It will take another miracle for Chicago to pull off this magic trick two years in a row. At this point, nothing would surprise me.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	116-44	871	467	404	66-14	50-30	.798	.876	.770	2.62	.604	.574	.628
	81-79	728	694	34	42-38	39-41	.733	.767	.719	4.10	.749	.757	.741

Mike Tyson vs. Dustin "Screech" Diamond. Ronda Rousey vs. Miley Cyrus. Chuck Norris vs. anyone. I'm trying to think of a head-to-head matchup that would be more lopsided than this one, and I'm coming up empty. Earlier, I compared the SoCal Slyme to the Harlem Globetrotters, and their Eck League opponents to the Generals. The Undertakers are like the Globetrotters, but with actual NBA all-stars instead of clowns in long shorts. And the Flamingos are like the Generals, but with six-year-olds instead of middle-aged men, and with a net raised by five feet on their end of the court. This is not going to be pretty.

What can I possibly write about the Undertakers that I haven't written already? They tied the BDBL record with 116 wins this season, and outscored their opponents by more than FOUR HUNDRED RUNS. To put that in perspective, the 2002 Allentown Ridgebacks hold the BDBL record for greatest runs differential, with 433. That was in an era where run-scoring was twenty percent higher than it was this year. And just in case you aren't impressed enough yet, consider the fact that Los Altos underperformed their Pythagorean record by EIGHT games this year. Yes, according to their runs differential, the Undertakers' record should have been 124-36 this season. Just...wow.

An ERA of 2.62 is an impressive feat for any pitcher. In fact, out of all the MLB pitchers who qualified for the ERA title this past MLB season, only seven managed to post an ERA better than 2.62. Here's the thing, though. That was the ERA this season for the entire Undertakers pitching staff. THE ENTIRE F'ING PITCHING STAFF!!

Here's a fun little exercise. Let's take the entire Los Altos pitching staff and pretend it was just one pitcher, with 200 innings. Here's what that pitcher's stats would look like:

200 IP, 164 H, 60 BB, 202 K, 13 HR, 2.62 ERA

Those are Cy Young worthy numbers. AND THAT'S THEIR ENTIRE TEAM!!

Why bother? Why did we all bother to play this season?

A deep-dive into the numbers reveals even more reasons to believe this has been a pointless season. The Los Altos ace, Chris Sale, set a new BDBL record with an ERA of -- get this -- 1.63. He went 18-2 and allowed only 119 hits in 187+ innings...with 253 strikeouts! It was a vintage Pedro Martinez performance. In fact, he broke two of Martinez's records for lowest OBP and slugging percentage allowed.

The #2 pitcher in the rotation, Kyle Gibson, also turned in a Cy Young worthy season, going 19-4 with a 2.30 ERA in 195+ innings. Colin McHugh (11-7, 2.83 in 165+) and Gerrit Cole (11-4, 3.36 in 134) each pitched better than most aces, while Chris Archer (10-8, 4.62 in 157+) was the black sheep of the family.

As usual, the Los Altos bullpen was filled with a parade of closers, each more dominant than the other. It's not even worth noting all of them. Of particular note was the performance of Michael Pineda, who went 7-0 with a 1.51 ERA in 83+ innings. Ineligible to start, he will become yet another weapon out of the bullpen.

Of course, I haven't even mentioned their offense yet. The Undertakers led the BDBL in runs scored by EIGHTY runs. I'm not sure if that has ever happened before, but I'm too lazy to look it up. Either way, it's impressive. They weren't merely a slugging team. The Undertakers led the BDBL in fewest strikeouts, and also stole 91 bases with only 19 caught stealing. They also led the BDBL in highest OBP against lefties (.876), which will come in handy if they face the all-lefty (with the exception of Tanaka) Blazers rotation.

It's hard to believe, but only two Los Altos batters topped 100 runs created in 2015: Jose Bautista (118.3) and Anthony Rizzo (117.5). Late (and completely superfluous) addition Michael Brantley (110.7) also created more than 100 runs this year, but with two different teams. Matt Holliday (.281/.380/.474) probably would have created 100+ runs for any other team in the BDBL, but was relegated to pinch hitting duty on this ridiculously loaded team.

And then, there are the Las Vegas Flamingos. The Flamingos are among the top five most consistent teams in BDBL history. They average 73.5 wins per season, and they've deviated from that average by more than ten games only seven times in seventeen seasons. Then won one division title with a 97-win season (way back in 2001), another with 79 wins (2009), and have now won title number three with an 81-win season.

In the first half of the season, the Benes Division race was dominated by the Ravenswood Infidels and New York Giants. At the all-star break, those two teams were separated by just one game atop the division standings, while the Flamingos floundered in third place, six games behind. In Chapter Four, Vegas made an unexpected surge, going 14-10, while the next best team in the division finished at just 10-14. That is when Johnny Bo leaped into action.

In a deal consummated just before the final trading deadline, Bochicchio added a pair of bats in Ryan Braun and Jhonny Peralta. From that point forward, the Flamingos went 34-22 (.607), outscored their opponents by 78 runs, and won six games more than the next best team in the division.

Although both Braun (.257/.332/.477) and Peralta (.298/.356/.533) were major contributors down the stretch, they weren't the only ones. Asdrubal Cabrera was pushed to the bench after the acquisition of Peralta, but rather than pout about it, he excelled, hitting .392/.431/.647 in 51 mostly pinch hit at-bats. Billy Butler (.311/.386/.578), Gregor Blanco (.330/.405/.485), and Daniel Murphy (.328/.356/.506) also stepped it up during the stretch run.

Over the course of the full season, Adam Eaton (.346/.410/.476, 108.4 RC) was without a doubt the team's most valuable hitter. His .346 batting average broke the old franchise record set by Javy Lopez in 2004 by one percentage point.

On the pitching side, Las Vegas were below league average by nearly every measurement. Their 4.10 ERA ranked eighth in the OL. They ranked ninth in OPS allowed, ninth in hits per nine, eighth in walks per nine, and eighth in home runs per nine. The one glaring area where they performed far below league average was strikeouts. In a season where the average BDBL team whiffed 7.9 batters per nine innings, the Flamingos clocked in at just 6.3.

Although it seems impossible to imagine the Flamingos ever winning a single game against the juggernaut Undertakers, it actually happened three times this season (in twelve games.) It can be done, theoretically. This series tests the limit of the phrase "any team can win any given short series."

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	97-63	662	592	70	52-28	45-35	.704	.678	.712	3.30	.654	.713	.601
	93-67	726	566	160	49-31	44-36	.742	.781	.733	3.21	.668	.674	.665

The Cleveland Rocks won more games in 2015 than they have in any past season in franchise history. It is only the second time Cleveland has topped 90 wins in a season, and this is their second division title. In my pre-season preview, I picked the Rocks to finish in last place, and noted that they owned the worse offense in the Eck League. In fact, Cleveland scored in the middle of the pack (12th in the BDBL) in runs scored, falling just below the Chicago Black Sox in that category

How on earth did Cleveland score more than 600 runs with that lineup? Maybe it's simply a case of underestimating the productivity of guys like Lonnie Chisenhall, Joe Mauer, and Brandon Phillips. As a team, Cleveland outperformed their MLB OPS by only fourteen points, so it's not as if their success was a Diamond Mind anomaly.

The offense was carried by two hitters who drastically outperformed their MLB output: Jose Reyes (.308/.359/.438, 103 RC) and Torii Hunter (.303/.339/.496, 73.3 RC). No Cleveland batter hit more than 14 home runs or drove in more than 70 runs. No player walked more than 55 times or posted an OBP higher than .359. Only one player slugged .500 (Grady Sizemore in only 80 AB.)

The one area where Cleveland's offense excelled (once again) is stealing bases. The Rocks swiped 147 bags in 2015, which is 34 more than the next best team. On the down side, they were also caught stealing 65 times, which equates to a 69% success rate -- one percentage point below the accepted threshold for productive gain.

When a team wins 97 games and a division title despite scoring only 662 runs, you would assume their pitching staff must have been phenomenal. Cleveland ranked just fourth in the Eck League in ERA (3.30), but owned the second lowest OPS allowed.  They also had the lowest rate of home runs allowed.

Aces Corey Kluber (21-6, 2.26 ERA in 250+ IP, with 280 K's), Jacob deGrom (11-5, 2.62 in 137+), and Jake Arrieta (11-5, 3.05 in 153+) were as good as expected, and Mark Melancon led the BDBL in saves with 48 (to go along with a 1.08 ERA in 74+ innings.) Zack Britton (1.69 ERA in 80 IP) was a phenomenal setup man all season.

As good as their pitching was, something still doesn't compute. How can this be a 97-win team? The answer lies with their phenomenal 33-21 record in one-run games. That .611 winning percentage is second only to the Chicago Black Sox, and it helps to explain why Cleveland outperformed their Pythagorean record by eight games.

On the flip side, the Kansas Law Dogs only played .556 ball in one-run games (30-24), and underperformed their Pythagorean record by seven games. They ranked second in the Eck League in runs scored (behind division rival Wyoming), and placed third in ERA. They crushed left-handed pitching (.781 OPS) so badly that teams simply didn't throw very many lefties at them.

Christian Yelich (.307/.383/.459) was the team leader in runs created, with 104.3. Edwin Encarnacion led the team in homers (37), but hit just .206/.277/.470 on the season. Nelson Cruz (.263/.322/.466, 28 HR) also drastically underperformed, compared to his MLB numbers. Luckily, Salvador Perez (.313/.342/.533, 20 HR) and Pablo Sandoval (.343/.386/.518) picked up the slack.

On the hill, Dallas Keuchel (20-4, 2.76 ERA in 211+ IP) became the first 20-game winner in Kansas since Cole Hamels and Doug Fister in 2012. Zack Greinke (13-9, 3.41 ERA in 205+ IP) turned in a decent season as the #2 starter, but Yordano Ventura (13-15, 4.74 ERA in 178+ IP) was a severe disappointment. Late-season acquisition Francisco Liriano (4-2, 2.43 ERA in 63 IP) stepped in to fill that hole.

The greatest asset owned by the Law Dogs in 2015 was their bullpen. Four different relievers (Jonathan Papelbon, Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Jared Hughes) posted an ERA under 2.00 in more than 60 innings. Kansas led the entire BDBL in inherited runs scoring percentage, at 18.1%, compared to a league average of 29%. They had only ten blown saves the entire season (lowest in the league), and ranked second in blown save percentage, at 18.5%.

This is an interesting postseason matchup for several reasons. Kansas appears to be the better team on paper, yet Cleveland owns the higher seed and the home field advantage. The Law Dogs crush left-handed pitching, yet Cleveland doesn't have a single left-handed starter (and only two lefties in the bullpen.) Cleveland doesn't score many runs, and Kansas doesn't allow many, either. Yet, during the regular season, Kansas lost eight out of twelve head-to-head matchups.

Kansas lost five out of six games in Cleveland this season, lost both games started by Kluber, and all three games started by Arrieta. Most of the games weren't even close, as only two out of the twelve head-to-head matchups were decided by one run (both extra-inning games.) On paper, this should be a walk in the park for Kansas, and yet they haven't been able to solve the Mystery of the Rocks all season.