November, 2021

2021 Playoffs Preview

The motto of the long-running TV reality show Big Brother is "Expect the Unexpected." That motto would certainly fit the 2021 BDBL season. Out of the six division winners, only two (Joplin and Highland) were predicted to win the division in preseason league polling. The Las Vegas Flamingos, Allentown Ridgebacks, Great Lakes Sphinx, and Chicago Black Sox received a grand total of THREE votes in those polls.

In my own preseason preview, written last January, I whiffed on all six divisions, going a perfect 0-for-6 in the predictions game -- the first time that has ever happened in 23 seasons. My predictions were so laughably wrong, I picked the division-winning Highland Freedom and wildcard-winning Buckingham Sovereigns to finish LAST in their divisions.

We should continue to expect the unexpected as we head into the postseason, where the unexpected is traditionally the norm. Unlike past seasons, there is no clear-cut "superteam" that is likely to dominate the competition from beginning to end. The Great Lakes Sphinx and Chicago Black Sox are the only 100-win teams in the BDBL this year, and the Allentown Ridgebacks (+184) own the highest runs differential of the eight playoff teams. No team looks like an obvious league champion on paper; but then, we don't play this game on paper.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	97-63	783	697	86	52-28	45-35	.750	.751	.749	4.01	.727	.780	.692
	89-71	772	761	11	48-32	41-39	.741	.719	.749	4.27	.743	.766	.730

The Las Vegas Flamingos won more games in 2021 than they have since way back in 2001, when they went 97-63. They have now won their division four times in 23 seasons. Remarkably enough, they have yet to win a single postseason game. In their three previous trips to the OL Division Series, Vegas was swept in all three series: once by Salem (2001), and twice by Los Altos (2009 and 2015).

The Flamingos did not dominate the Ozzie League offensively or defensively this year, yet they won more games than any other team in the league, and won their division by the widest margin (20 games) in the entire BDBL. They did so mostly by beating up on the other teams in their division (a league-best 33-15 record in division play) and their hapless opponents in the Hrbek Division (a BDBL-best 12-4 record in interleague play.) They also benefitted from some good fortune, as they tied with Bear Country for the best Pythagorean Difference (+8) and won more one-run games (36) than any other team in the BDBL.

Pete Alonso (.266/.355/.578) enjoyed an MVP-caliber season, and led the team in nearly every offensive category, including home runs (47) and runs created (123). Franchise mainstay Francisco Lindor (.276/.331/.488) had another quality season, as did Adam Frazier (.259/.325/.367) and Andrew McCutchen (.265/.336/.472). The biggest surprise of the season for Vegas was the performance of catcher Taylor Ward (.261/.357/.435) who was named the starting catcher for the OL all-star team despite a disk batting line of just .234/.317/.394. Kevin Cron (.225/.286/.435, 26 HR) also had a decent year thanks to a generous projection.

On the pitching side, Johnny Bo didn't get much of a return from his $8.5 million winter investment, Zack Wheeler (10-9, 4.01 ERA in 188+ IP), although that investment is expected to pay dividends in 2022. Instead, the starting rotation was carried by five guys earning $3.8 million, combined: Marcus Walden (6-1, 2.80 in 70+), Joey Lucchesi (15-5, 3.14 in 160+), Braxton Garrett (7-4, 3.33 in 92), Chris Bassitt (11-4, 3.50 in 121), and Cody Stashak (8-2, 3.60 in 80). Kenley Jansen (3.36 ERA in 56+ IP) led the team with 39 saves, while Ty Buttrey (2.51 in 57+) and Justin Wilson (2.85 in 47+) carried the bulk of the setup duties in the bullpen.

The Bear Country Jamboree were supposed to be an afterthought in the two-team race of the Griffin Division. Thanks to the Great Towel-Throwing Incident of 2021, they managed to eke into the postseason by one single game. This marks the fifth postseason appearance for this franchise, the fourth wildcard, and the second wildcard in a row.

Matt Clemm seems to have made it a habit to out-perform expectations and his team's Pythagorean projection. Last year, the Jamboree led the entire BDBL with a +13 Pythagorean difference. This year, they tied for the BDBL lead at +8. This year, the Jamboree ranked smack-dab in the middle of the OL in runs scored (772) and runs allowed (761). They really picked up the pace in the second half of the season, and finished with the third-best record (46-34) in the OL in that half.

Offensively, the team was carried by three guys: J.D. Martinez (.316/.371/.596, 41 HR), Mike Moustakas (.292/.357/.570, 36 HR), and Paul Goldschmidt (.249/.328/.451). Those three, combined, created over 43 percent of the entire team's runs this year.

On the mound, Bear Country relied heavily on their bullpen. Aroldis Chapman (1.76 ERA in 56+ IP, 36 SV), Jose Urena (2.41 in 71), Alex Vesia (2.10 in 64+), Mark Melancon (3.70 in 48+), and Scott Alexander (3.29 in 52) made 275 appearances, combined. They tossed 292 innings, and owned a 2.59 combined ERA. They blew fewer save opportunities (25%) than any other team in the OL, and owned the lowest inherited runs scored percentage (21%) of any OL team.

The Jamboree managed to succeed in 2021 despite a lack of quality starting pitching. Frankie Montas (11-9, 3.88 ERA in 139 IP) and Ryan Yarbrough (14-8, 3.86 in 165+) vied for the title of team "ace", followed by Daulton Jefferies (7-3, 3.95 in 93+). Oddly enough, the only two starting pitchers on this roster with any track record of success, Hyun-Jin Ryu (10-7, 4.52 in 157+), and Luis Castillo (6-14, 4.66 in 191), were the team's two worst starters. (Unless you count the disastrous John Means: 4-6, 6.63 in 73+).

Bear Country and Las Vegas split their season series this year, 6-6. Weirdly enough, both teams played better on the road, going 4-2 in those games. Vegas pitchers had trouble with lefties all year, but should have little trouble with Bear Country's righty-heavy lineup, where only Moustakas (.296/.360/.610 vs. RH) poses a real threat. The right-handed Martinez (.344/.399/.671) also weirdly hammered right-handers this year. Vegas owned the best home record in the BDBL this year, and owned a .600 winning percentage in the second half. They have the home-field advantage in this series, and they have the momentum.

Prediction: Vegas in six.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	102-58	874	714	160	50-30	52-28	.785	.728	.817	4.15	.741	.752	.735
	83-77	713	735	-22	46-34	37-43	.710	.712	.709	4.21	.727	.722	.730

The Sphinx have been (arguably) the greatest riddle of the 2021 season. Not a single person in preseason polling voted for the Sphinx to win the Higuera Division. In fact, Great Lakes was the only team of the four that didn't receive a single vote out of 13 votes cast. In my preseason preview, I predicted a third-place finish for this team. My comment about that prediction, however, somewhat redeems myself: "It would not surprise me if the Sphinx finish this season below .500. It also would not surprise me if they won 100 games and the division title. Basically, nothing this team can ever do would ever surprise me again. I have learned to accept the fact that I have no clue how to evaluate the Great Lakes Sphinx."

In 2021, the Sphinx led all BDBL teams with 102 wins. They scored more runs (938) than every other team but the Chicago Black Sox. They were perhaps the most consistent team in the league, dominating from beginning to end, with win totals of 17, 22, 14, 19, 17, and 13 in the six chapters.

The Sphinx offense dominated the competition simply because it's so deep. There is no relief to be found anywhere in their lineup. Four players racked up 80+ runs created. Three others posted an 800+ OPS in 300+ PA's. That's seven-ninths of the lineup! Christian Yelich (.328/.409/.592) could be the EL MVP for the second year in a row. Charlie Blackmon (.271/.325/.523) continued to ignore his MLB park factors for the umpteenth year in a row. The two gifts from the Doyle Charitable Foundation, Josh Donaldson (.304/.430/.555) and Carlos Santana (.283/.387/.587), turned this lineup into a weapon of mass destruction.

On the pitching side, I really wish someone would explain to me what happened in Great Lakes this year. Jake Arrieta, whose projection (129+ IP, 4.53 CERA, .747 OPS, 818/700 splits) was pretty awful, pitched well enough to earn a few Cy Young votes: 16-2, 2.62 ERA in 137+ IP. Masahiro Tanaka (10-4, 3.39 in 159+), Trevor Williams (8-2, 3.88 in 141+), and Mike Minor (8-7, 4.62 in 154) pitched well enough to eat some innings, I suppose. Yet another gift from the Doyle Foundation, Clayton Kershaw (6-5, 4.13 in 93+), gave this starting rotation a much-needed boost.

It seems appropriate that the Sphinx would be playing the Highland Freedom in the Division Series, given that neither team was expected to play in the postseason in 2021. Highland's new GM, Bobby Sylvester, was among the first in the league to announce that 2021 would be a rebuilding year for his franchise, way back in December of 2020. Just prior to Opening Day, Sylvester unloaded three players -- including two with 2021 value -- onto Buckingham in exchange for future value. The white flag sale continued in Chapters Two and Three, including a blockbuster Chapter Three trade in which Manny Machado was sent packing to Lake Norman.

A funny thing happened on the way to last place. Highland went into the all-star break in third place, six games under .500. They turned it around in Chapter Four, finishing with a division-best 15-9 record. They followed that with an even better 19-9 record in Chapter Five. They then went 12-16 in Chapter Six, and yet won their division despite the poor showing. Their second half record of 46-34 (.575) ranks third in the EL.

Of the eight playoff teams, Highland is the only one that was outscored by their opponents (-22) this year. In a weird statistical quirk, they somehow managed to finish with a positive Pythagorean difference (+5) despite a losing record (24-28) in one-run games.

Highland managed to finish in the middle of the EL pack (8th) in runs scored despite owning the lowest on-base percentage (.292) of any team in the entire BDBL. Four players hit between 20-30 home runs this year: Yoan Moncada (.288/.342/.525, 31 HR), C.J. Cron (.225/.296/.431, 24 HR), Luis Robert (.251/.291/.429, 20 HR), and Teoscar Hernandez (.232/.308/.466, 25 HR). With the exception of part-timer Carter Kieboom (.276/.368/.487), only Moncada managed an OBP higher than .340, and only Mike Yastrzemski (.266/.331/.491) topped .330.

On the pitching side, Highland ranked in the middle of the pack in ERA, thanks to Cy Young-vote-worthy performances from Lucas Giolito (15-9, 2.95 ERA in 189 IP) and Trevor Bauer (18-9, 3.16 in 205). Patrick Corbin (10-4, 3.10 in 93), who was acquired at the Chapter Four deadline, was also a major contributor down the stretch. Another pitcher acquired at the same time, Ken Giles (2.32 ERA in 31 IP, 16 SV), became a huge asset during Highland's impressive second chapter run. The Highland bullpen led the BDBL with the lowest blown saves percentage (20%) in the BDBL.

Great Lakes owned a winning record against every Eck League team this year except South Philly (8-8) and Cleveland (4-8). They went 8-4 in head-to-head play against Highland, and outscored the Freedom 54-35 in those dozen games. Great Lakes shut out Highland twice, but also lost two shutouts. Great Lakes' home ballpark is one of the most generous in the league for power hitters, which gives them quite an advantage over the low-power Freedom. Of the four Division Series, this one looks like the most lopsided matchup.

Prediction: Great Lakes in four.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	95-65	836	652	184	51-29	44-36	.768	.736	.780	3.66	.670	.678	.667
	91-69	689	613	76	46-34	45-35	.711	.661	.731	3.46	.660	.647	.667

Well, it was fun while it lasted. For four glorious years, this league did not have to worry about Tom DiStefano winning yet another BDBL championship. Those carefree days are now behind us. In just his second year after returning from exile, DiStefano and his new franchise are back playing November baseball. This is his ninth division title in only seventeen seasons. The 2021 Ridgebacks won more games than every other team in the BDBL except the Sphinx, Black Sox, and Flamingos. They led the entire BDBL by outscoring their opponents by 184 runs.

Allentown's 836 runs scored ranks first in the Ozzie League and third overall. Giancarlo Stanton (.281/.345/.644, 58 HR, 117.2 RC), Matt Olson (.289/.354/.566, 38 HR, 112.6 RC), and Aaron Judge (.271/.374/.532, 32 HR, 98.5 RC) formed a modern-day Murderer's Row in the middle of the Ridgebacks lineup. Jorge Polanco (.271/.338/.447, 93.1 RC) and George Springer (.261/.338/.455, 28 HR) were also major contributors. A Chapter Two trade with Ravenswood netted yet another big bat, Matt Carpenter (.238/.339/.413 for Allentown.)

That Ravenswood trade also gave this team a legitimate ace in Chris Sale (11-6, 2.77 ERA in 149+ IP for Allentown.) Corey Kluber (11-6, 3.08 ERA in 157+ IP) inexplicably flourished for the Ridgebacks as well. Tyler Anderson (9-3, 3.48 in 116+), J.A. Happ (11-6, 3.97 in 131+), and Kevin Gausman (8-5, 4.21 in 107) were good enough to propel this team into first place. The bullpen was a true committee, with ten different pitchers recording at least one save. Drew Pomeranz somehow earned 20 of them while posting a mediocre 4.43 ERA in 63 innings.

Most people, including 13 of the 15 who voted in preseason polling, believed that Los Altos would win the Griffin Division. Instead, Allentown dominated from beginning to end. They won 48 games in the first half of the season and 47 in the second half, while the Undertakers stumbled to only 43 wins in the second half, including a 15-13 record in the final chapter.

The Joplin Miners' schizophrenic journey to the postseason has been well-documented by now. Jim Doyle, the long-time Clown Prince of the BDBL, began the 2021 season by going "all-in" during the winter auction, spending nearly his entire budget on just five players. He then added Clayton Kershaw in a mid-draft trade with the white-flag-waving Chicago Black Sox. Then, 50 games into the season, Doyle waved the white flag himself and traded away four of his best players, including Kershaw. Then, a few days later, he reversed course yet again and began trading away his team's future to go "all-in" yet again on the 2021 season.

In the end, Doyle was given the boot after his clown act grew tiresome and detrimental to the league. Billy "Baseball" Romaniello, one of the league's Founding Fathers, was welcomed back into the league as the interim manager of his former franchise. And the Joplin Miners continued to benefit from a Salem Cowtippers team that seemed to run out of steam after the first chapter.

The Miners barely outscored their competition this year (+76), and owned the second-lowest OPS (.711) out of the eight playoff teams, and yet it was enough to win the McGowan Division. The team's strength, weirdly enough, was their pitching staff, which led the entire BDBL with a 3.46 ERA. What's weird about it is that Joplin's pitchers simply aren't that good. Likely aided by their pitcher-friendly home ballpark, nearly every Miners pitcher posted better numbers in the BDBL than are posted on the projection disk.

Lance Lynn (7-8, 3.06 ERA in 144+ IP), Eduardo Rodriguez (12-7, 3.15 in 182+), Madison Bumgarner (7-8, 4.12 in 115+), and Luis Severino (9-6, 4.14 in 148) earned the bulk of the work in the starting rotation. By far, the most head-scratching performance of the year came from Tanner Roark. His projected stats were a 4.43 ERA and 827/694 splits. His BDBL performance: 6-2, 1.90 ERA in 80+ IP. Oh, and he also tossed a no-hitter, just to increase the absurdity level to eleven.

The Miners bullpen was mostly a collection of pitchers that other teams had thrown away. The Undertakers tossed Jose Castillo into the free agent garbage dump in Chapter Two. Joplin picked him out of the trash, and he went 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA in 50 innings. Jose Leclerc posted a 6.35 ERA for the Carolina Saints. They dumped him on Joplin, where he went 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA in 14+ IP. Francisco Liriano was selected in one of the garbage rounds (27th) of the free agent draft. He went 4-0, with a 2.09 ERA in 43 IP for Joplin. Then, there was the child-molesting Felipe Vazquez, signed to a $7 million salary in the auction, with the foreknowledge that he'd be spending the rest of his contract in prison. He went 2-3 with a 2.38 ERA and 23 saves in 64+ innings for the Miners.

The offense was carried by franchise player Mookie Betts (.276/.352/.506) and big-money auction signings Marcus Semien (.251/.325/.418) and Nelson Cruz (.250/.344/.413). But again, Joplin received major contributions from players that were discarded by other organizations. Los Altos (again) threw Dan Vogelbach into the trash heap at the end of Chapter Three. Joplin went dumpster-diving yet again, and Vogelbach (.240/.344/.514) practically carried this offense on his back over the final two chapters. Justin Smoak, added as a place-filler in that blockbuster trade with Great Lakes, hit .268/.352/.520 for Joplin.

Allentown won seven of the twelve games against Joplin this year, and went 4-2 against them at home. Of the twelve games, three went into extra innings, and two others were decided by just one run. With the exception of the North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs, the Miners owned the worst OPS (.661) against left-handers in the BDBL. That advantage plays right into Allentown's hands, with Sale, Happ, and Anderson all throwing from the left side. Danny Duffy (5-3, 3.71 ERA in 68 IP) could provide another lefty arm if needed. Billy Baseball's postseason debut could be very short-lived.

Prediction: Allentown in five.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	100-60	938	757	181	51-29	49-31	.824	.772	.847	4.29	.765	.787	.752
	92-68	764	715	49	43-37	49-31	.747	.801	.727	3.94	.724	.739	.712

John Gill was one of many owners in the BDBL this year who decided to throw in the towel early in the season, only to see his team succeed despite his towel-throwing. The White Flag Sale began during the 2020 playoffs, and resulted in the trades of Freddie Freeman, Shane Bieber, and Eloy Jimenez. The dumping continued into January, when Gill traded Clayton Kershaw to Joplin in the middle of the draft.

In spite of all the dumping, the Black Sox shocked the BDBL establishment by getting off to a league-best 21-7 start in Chapter One. (It may be the first time in history Chicago got off to a hot start!) By the all-star break, Chicago had built an eight-game lead in the Hrbek Division, and turned from sellers into buyers, picking up Liam Hendricks, Yasiel Puig, and Andrew Heaney along the way.

Chicago finished with 100+ wins for the seventh time in franchise history. They outscored their opponents by more runs (181) than any other team in the BDBL, with the exception of Allentown (184). Their 938 runs scored ranks first in the BDBL -- a whopping 64 runs more than the next-highest total in the BDBL. They also led the league in batting average (.264), OBP (.344), slugging (.479), and home runs (293). Four different Black Sox created over 100 runs each: Anthony Rizzo (.297/.392/.527), Kris Bryant (.271/.375/.522), Kyle Schwarber (.284/.386/.550), and Bryce Harper (.261/.374/.512). Three others created more than 70 runs: Gavin Lux (.298/.373/.522, 93.8 RC), Fernando Tatis, Jr. (.303/.357/.562, 86.4), and Will Myers (.276/.352/.501, 76.6). NINE Black Sox hitters finished this season with 20+ home runs.

On the pitching side, Chicago ranked in the middle of the pack with a 4.29 team ERA. Chicago pitchers gave up a ton of walks (3.6 per nine) and a ton of home runs (1.6 per nine). Dallas Keuchel (15-8, 3.58 ERA in 173+ IP), Sandy Alcantara (19-5, 3.94 in 210+), and Gio Gonzalez (10-7, 4.19 in 146) carried the bulk of the load in the starting rotation. Midseason acquisition Liam Hendricks (3.35 ERA in 40+ IP) led the team in saves, with 26. Tim Mayza (4-1, 2.19 in 53+), Jeurys Familia (3.62 in 59+), and Carlos Martinez (3.23 in 47+) provided quality middle relief.

The story out of Buckingham should sound familiar, as it's been told many times already throughout this season. GM Tony Badger famously lost his $26 million bid to retain the services of his franchise player, Mike Trout, during the auction. He then used that money to purchase several other players that carried his team into the postseason for the first time since 2018.

The Badgers finished with a record of 92-68, and fought off a season-long battle with the Cleveland Rocks for the EL wildcard. They did so by beating up the other teams in their division. No other Eck League team won more divisional games than the Sovereigns (31). Only the Las Vegas Flamingos (33) won more in the BDBL. Buckingham also beat up on the Griffin Division in interleague play, going 11-5.

The Sovereigns ranked in the middle of the EL pack in runs scored (764), and led the Eck League in team ERA (3.94). The Buckingham bullpen was outstanding all year. The Sovereigns went 31-25 in one-run games and 11-8 in extra innings thanks to their pen. Taylor Rogers (2.47 ERA in 73 IP), one of the players signed by Badger after losing the Trout bidding war, led the league in saves (40). Brad Hand (2.30 ERA in 70+ IP) and Brett Martin (2.71 in 66+) were outstanding in the setup role. In the starting rotation, Kyle Freeland (11-3, 2.72 ERA in 162 IP) weirdly dominated, and could be in line for a Cy Young award. Charlie Morton (12-10, 3.98 in 174+) and Jeff Hoffman (9-10, 4.00 in 159+) were solid contributors as well.

The Sovereigns offense was truly a team effort. Not a single player topped 100 runs created. Jorge Soler (.251/.355/.531, 42 HR, 95.7 RC) and Aaron Hicks (.284/.389/.584, 22 HR, 84.1 RC), both acquired in the auction, were big contributors to the offense. Franmil Reyes (.269/.316/.563, 45 HR, 95.1 RC), Nick Solak (.259/.336/.401), Brandon Belt (.237/.330/.434), Buster Posey (.272/.331/.434), and Gio Urshela (.257/.278/.461, 28 HR) were major assets as well.

The Black Sox won the season series against Buckingham, 8-4, but that record is a bit deceptive. Only four of the twelve games were decided by more than two runs. Seven of the twelve were one-run games. This matchup is a bit like the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object. Buckingham's pitchers allowed one of the lowest home run rates in the league this year, while Chicago's hitters led the league in homers. Chicago's home ballpark is one of the best home run parks in the game, and they hold the home-field advantage in this series. You have to think that Buckingham's pitchers will have a tough time keeping the ball in the park despite their performance this season.

Prediction: Chicago in seven.

Remaining predictions:

• Allentown over Las Vegas in seven.
• Great Lakes over Chicago in seven.
• Great Lakes over Allentown in six.