November, 2022

2022 Playoffs Preview

Welcome to the 2022 postseason! Of the eight teams participating in this year's Tournament of Ran-- (oh, sorry...apologies to the Old Man) --Not Random At All Tournament, only two -- Chicago and Bear Country -- played in this tournament a year ago. Most of the others are hardly new to November baseball, however. Akron has been here seven times before. This is Salem's seventeenth attempt to win a trophy (resulting in a grand total of one so far.) Ravenswood has been here nine times before. Charlotte (8 prior postseason appearances) and Kansas (12) are hardly strangers to this circus.

There is, however, one newbie among this group. Let's have a round of applause for Mike Ranney, who is making his first playoffs appearance since joining the BDBL in 2010!

We have some very interesting match-ups to look forward to in these Division Series. Division rivals Akron and Ravenswood will face off in the postseason after Akron manhandled Ravenswood throughout the regular season. Two of the league's best offenses, Chicago and Niagara, will slug it out in a bloody cage match to the death. One of the league's best pitching staffs (Bear Country) will test one of baseball's oldest adages when they face off against the league's top offense in Salem. And the Charlotte Mustangs will attempt to shake off the Ghosts of 2019 in their series against the tough Kansas Law Dogs, who became one of the league's rarest unicorns by winning a division in which they were trailing heading into Chapter Six.

Whether you're a true believer in the God of Dice Rolls or you're an old man shouting at a cloud, there is something for everyone to enjoy in this postseason.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	108-52	863	571	292	63-17	45-35	.802	.821	.796	3.23	.667	.658	.672
	98-62	793	620	173	52-28	46-34	.773	.754	.781	3.49	.694	.698	.692

The success of the Akron Ryche this season was hardly a shocker. Eleven of the fourteen people who voted in our preseason poll picked Akron to win their division. Akron (barely) earned the most votes to win the Ozzie League title. They also earned the most votes (7 out of 15) to win it all. They encountered some very stiff competition from the Ravenswood Infidels throughout the entire season, but in the end, the Ryche finished with a franchise-best (tying the 2003 team) 108 wins.

The Ryche barely finished second to Salem in runs differential (+292 compared to Salem's +295), and led the entire BDBL with the fewest runs allowed (571). Akron's pitching was expected to dominate the league this year, and they did just that. The Ryche led the BDBL with a 3.23 team ERA. Their starting pitchers blew away the entire field of competitors with 97 quality starts -- 14 more than the next-best total. Their bullpen blew fewer save opportunities than any other team in the league except for Los Altos (of course.)

As expected, Akron's huge free agent pick-up, Gerrit Cole (15-6, 2.73 ERA in 198 IP) joined Corbin Burnes (16-5, 2.50 in 180+) as potential Cy Young award winners in the Akron rotation. Brandon Woodruff (11-10, 3.67 in 196) was supposed to be a third Cy Young candidate in this rotation, but was a relative disappointment. Nasty Nestor Cortez (8-2, 3.11 in 101+) and Cal Quantrill (11-5, 3.30 in 158) rounded out the BDBL's best starting rotation.

Josh Hader (1.73 ERA in 62+ IP, 38 SV) enjoyed yet another year as Akron's lights-out closer. He was backed by Tim Mayza (1.58 in 51+), Tyler Wells (2.21 in 57), Lucas Sims (2.57 in 49), and Deolis Guerra (2.79 in 51+).

Akron's offense scored more runs than every other Ozzie League team except for the dominant Salem Cowtippers. The Ryche's 863 runs scored blew away the third-ranked Infidels by a whopping 70 runs, but were 101 runs shy of Salem's total. Austin Riley (.296/.366/.527, 36 HR) led the team with 121.9 runs created. Josh Bell (.283/.361/.543, 35 HR) was the only other Ryche with 100+ RC this year. Jesse Winker (.308/.396/.555), Ronald Acuna (.268/.414/.572), Harrison Bader (.287/.331/.513), and midseason pick-up Darin Ruf (.280/.402/.596) also smashed this year. In total, six different Ryche hitters launched twenty or more bombs this season.

The Ravenswood Infidels nearly pulled off a major upset this season. They kept pace with the heavily-favored Ryche throughout the first four chapters, matching them win-for-win. Heading into Chapter Five, the two division rivals were deadlocked at 64-40 atop the Benes Division. After that point, however, the Ryche caught fire. They went a BDBL-best 44-12 (.786) over the final two chapters, blowing away the competition. Those 44 wins included eight -- two sweeps in a row -- against the Infidels in head-to-head play.

Infidels fans have nothing to be ashamed of. Ravenswood gave it their all this year, but the Ryche were simply too dominant a team to remain dormant for so long. Over the second half of the season, the Infidels posted the third-best record in the OL (.625). Their pitching, in particular, caught fire in the second half of the season. Ravenswood's team ERA of 3.39 over that period is second only to Akron.

As expected, their starting rotation was carried by the devastating one-two punch of Max Scherzer (14-8, 2.65 ERA in 197 IP) and Walker Buehler (20-7, 3.28 in 228). They will be the Game One and Two starters (or Two and One) in all likelihood. The other two postseason starters are less certain. Alek Manoah (9-6, 3.38 in 122+) had a solid year, but is limited to eight innings in the playoffs. Hyun-Jin Ryu (7-10, 4.53 in 147), Trevor Bauer (9-5, 4.58 in 118), and Chris Paddock (3-6, 4.94 in 94+) are similarly limited in usage, and did not pitch well this season.

Cedric Mullins (.257/.340/.477) was the only Infidel to create 100+ runs this season. Jose Altuve (.256/.340/.403), Jeimer Candelario (.270/.337/.450), Tony Kemp (.305/.412/.460), Jesus Aguilar (.278/.332/.455), Hunter Renfroe (.300/.371/.575), and Omar Narvaez (.287/.363/.409) each created 60-plus.

Although these two division rivals remained neck-and-neck in the division standings for four chapters, their head-to-head match-ups have been lopsided affairs all season long. In sixteen games, Akron won an astounding fourteen of them, including eleven in a row to end the season. Granted, many of those games were tight. Five were decided by one run, and six were decided by two runs. Still, the lopsided outcomes place Akron squarely as the favorite in this series.

Prediction: Akron in five.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	108-52	897	667	230	58-22	50-30	.803	.781	.814	3.78	.697	.730	.671
	93-67	799	666	133	52-28	41-39	.771	.787	.764	4.01	.713	.676	.738

The last time the Charlotte Mustangs won 108 or more games, they won the BDBL championship. Of course, that was in 2011, back when this franchise was under different management. In the Chamra Era, 108 wins represents a new high-water mark.

Preseason polling predicted that the Hrbek Division would be a tight race. Out of the fifteen votes cast in that poll, seven chose Charlotte to win the division, five picked Chicago, and three went to Myrtle Beach. In my Preseason Preview, I noted that GM Tony Chamra went all-in on this team by plugging holes with expensive free agents. That strategy certainly paid dividends, as the Mustangs dominated from beginning to end. They went 20-8 in Chapter One and never lost their lead.

Charlotte's +230 runs differential ranks third in the BDBL behind Salem (+295) and Akron (+292). They rank fifth in the BDBL in fewest runs allowed, and fourth in runs scored. They led the BDBL in batting average (.290), on-base (.359), hits, and doubles. They went a remarkable 30-8 in one-run games, and 11-6 in extra innings.

As you might suspect from those last two figures, the Charlotte bullpen was outstanding this season. Sam Coonrod (1.44 ERA in 31+ IP), Joe Barlow (1.47 in 30+), John King (1.71 in 31+), and Tejay Antone (1.77 in 35+) each posted an ERA below 2.00. Collin McHugh (2.13 in 67+) barely missed the cut.

Charlotte relied heavily on those bullpen arms, as their starting rotation was filled with mediocre inning-eaters. It is unclear how the postseason rotation will shake out, as there is no clear number one starter among Nick Pivetta (12-8, 3.46 in 166+), Jose Berrios (12-6, 4.32 in 191+), Chris Flexen (15-8, 4.40 in 178), and Lance McCullers (15-7, 4.58 in 157+). Paolo Espino (6-2, 3.38 in 104) is also available for a maximum of eight innings.

Offensively, free agent Yuli Gurriel (.345/.415/.528) led the way with 125.1 runs created. Nick Castellanos (.320/.372/.545) and Juan Soto (.277/.424/.471) also created 100+ runs. Tommy Edman (.285/.333/.454, with a league-leading 51 doubles) just missed the cut at 91.8 and ranks as one of the biggest surprises of the 2022 season. Luis Arreaz (.322/.398/.428), Alex Verdugo (.280/.355/.462), Daulton Varsho (.310/.374/.516), and Alex Bregman (.297/.361/.449) were also big contributors to the Charlotte offense.

For whatever reason, very few teams in league history have ever staged a Chapter Six come-from-behind division win. Almost always, the team that leads the division heading into the final chapter is the team that ultimately wins the division. The 2022 Kansas Law Dogs are an exception.

Kansas, who were heavily-favored to win their division according to preseason polling, found themselves looking up at the Buckingham Sovereigns for most of this season. They went into the all-star break trailing one game behind Buckingham, lost ground in Chapters Four and Five, and headed into the final chapter three games behind. But then, in a magical turn of events, Kansas went an astounding 21-7 in that final chapter while Buckingham went just 14-14.

One could argue that this division title should not have been so difficult for Kansas. After all, they were the only team in their division that outscored their opponents. Their +133 runs differential matches that of Niagara's, who won their division by an easy sixteen games. The difference is that the team trailing Niagara performed roughly as expected, according to Pythagorus, while the Sovereigns beat their Pythagorian estimate by one dozen wins.

The Law Dogs fell one run short of the magical 800-runs scored figure, which ranks them #5 in the Eck League and #7 in the BDBL. On the defense side, Kansas ranks #4 in the BDBL in fewest runs allowed (666), and #1 in the Eck League. Law Dogs pitchers were the only staff in the BDBL that allowed fewer than one home run per nine innings. They also ranked first in the Eck League with the lowest percentage of blown saves.

To the surprise of no one, Jacob deGrom was an absolute beast out of the Kansas bullpen. He pitched in 54 games, posted a 1.90 ERA, saved 29 games, allowed only 53 hits and 15 walks in 94+ innings, and struck out a whopping 148 batters. Adam Cimber (2.03 ERA in 71 IP) and Blake Treinen (2.97 in 66+) were also valuable arms out of the bullpen.

Kansas relied heavily on those bullpen arms this season, as their starting rotation was filled with inning-eaters like Marcus Stroman (15-8, 4.10 ERA in 193 IP), Kyle Gibson (16-9, 4.45 in 196), and Trevor Rogers (7-12, 3.78 in 140+). Those three, along with Kris Bubic (7-5, 3.66 in 108+), were the only three Law Dog pitchers to record 100+ innings this year.

Offensively, Chris Luhning's big winter trade acquisition Salvador Perez (.279/.336/.582, 51 HR) was the only 'Dog to create 100+ runs this year. Max Muncy (.248/.352/.498, 33 HR), Ty France (.268/.347/.414), Whit Merrifield (.290/.336/.417), Nicky Lopez (.309/.375/.385), and Randy Arozarena (.258/.347/.506) added their fair share to the offense.

Charlotte has absolutely dominated Kansas in head-to-head play this season, going 10-2 in those match-ups. Worse yet (for Kansas fans), many of those games weren't even close. Charlotte won games by scores of 13-2, 11-3, 10-3, and 7-1. Both of Charlotte's losses were started by Nick Pivetta, which tells me he probably won't see the light of day in this series. Kansas struggled on the road this season, barely finishing over .500 (41-39). With Charlotte owning the home-field advantage in this series, that seems like another point in their favor.

Prediction: Charlotte in four.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	101-59	964	669	295	54-26	47-33	.831	.902	.808	3.87	.682	.730	.658
	99-61	773	611	162	54-26	45-35	.746	.738	.749	3.54	.662	.636	.677

As has been well-documented by now, the Salem Cowtippers limped into this postseason with a sub-.500 record (13-15) in Chapter Six. Heading into that final chapter, the 'Tippers owned the best record in the BDBL and the number one seed in these playoffs. That changed in a hurry. Salem now owns the number three seed.

There is some good news for Cowtippers fans, however. The team that played in the spotted caps for most of the final two chapters is not the same team that will be playing this November. Brandon Belt (.270/.378/.586, 29 HR, 78.8 RC) started only eight games over the final two chapters, and collected just 63 plate appearances. He will play full-time in this postseason.

Salem's three most pleasant surprises -- Lorenzo Cain (.294/.373/.532), Zack Collins (.244/.393/.452), and Austin Nola (.329/.391/.447) -- also barely played in the final two chapters, racking up just 61, 28, and 19 PA's, respectively. They, too, will play full-time in November. Late-season pick-up Andy Ibanez, who never played a game for Salem, but hit .352/.368/.560 against lefties for Los Altos this year, will also play against lefties in these playoffs.

On the pitching side, the Cowtippers relied heavily on Luis H. Garcia (a team-leading 69+ innings) and Framber Valdez (49) over the final two chapters to fill innings -- neither of whom will be on Salem's postseason roster. Shohei Ohtani (15-2, 3.71 ERA in 143 IP) and Lance Lynn (17-6, 4.20 in 171+) will get the ball in two of these games. Jon Gray (12-9, 4.02 in 163+) and Steven Matz (10-6, 4.25 in 137+) are likely candidates for the remaining two slots.

Even considering their final disastrous chapter, the Cowtippers still managed to win 101 games and lead the BDBL in runs scored (964). The team's two 50-homer titans, Ohtani (.223/.345/.526, 50 HR) and Rafael Devers (.262/.329/.570, 50 HR) are two of the five Cowtippers who racked up 100+ runs created this season. Mark Canha (.267/.393/.495), Brandon Crawford (.306/.384/.523), and Trea Turner (.298/.339/.477) are the others.

The Jamboree faced some early divisional competition from the Blacksburg Beamers this season. Those two teams went into Chapter Three tied for the division lead. After that point, however, the Beamers fell apart, going just 46-58 (.442) over the last four chapters. Over that same period, the Jamboree posted the second-best winning percentage (.635) in the Ozzie League.

Bear Country finished in the middle of the pack in runs scored, ranking 12th out of 24 teams in that category. Their pitching carried them all the way. Bear Country ranked second in the BDBL in fewest runs allowed, trailing only the dominant Akron Ryche pitching staff in that category. Jamboree pitchers led the entire BDBL with the lowest OPS allowed (.662), and also allowed the lowest hit rate (7.3) in the league.

Jamboree starters Frankie Montas (17-4, 2.68 ERA in 204+ IP), Dylan Cease (12-7, 3.10 in 180), and Logan Webb (11-9, 3.38 in 157) were dominant from beginning to end. Craig Kimbrel (2.10 ERA in 64+ IP, 35 SV) was just about unhittable out of the bullpen. Mark Melancon (3.07 in 70+) and someone named Kyle McGowin (1.09 ERA in 33 IP) were solid in their setup roles.

The Jamboree offense was truly a team effort. Paul Goldschmidt (.303/.366/.529, 36 HR) was the only Jamboree to finish with 100+ runs created. Tim Anderson (.318/.346/.463), Myles Straw (.307/.375/.400), J.D. Martinez (.248/.320/.436), Jonathan Schoop (.287/.334/.438), and LaMonte Wade (.228/.273/.482) also chipped in.

In head-to-head play this season, Salem barely edged Bear Country, 7-5. Three of Salem's five losses were decided by one run. This is a matchup between one of the league's best pitching staffs and the league's best offense. They say pitching and defense wins in the playoffs. We'll see if that adage rings true.

Prediction: Salem in seven.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	95-65	938	805	133	52-28	43-37	.841	.873	.826	4.65	.772	.787	.761
	94-66	925	753	172	43-37	51-29	.828	.803	.840	4.25	.752	.741	.760

Mike Ranney has waited twelve long years for this moment. He bided his time, built his franchise from the farm-up, and demonstrated a level of patience that I have never personally known. All of that patience has finally paid dividends. The Niagara Locks are finally playing November baseball.

Niagara's 95 wins this season represents only the second time this franchise has topped 90 wins, and the first since 2002. The Locks are the first BDBL playoffs team in a long time (I don't have time to check exactly when, sorry) that allowed 800+ runs on the season. They won their division by pounding the crap out of the ball, plain and simple.

Niagara's 938 runs scored ranks second only to Salem (964) in the BDBL. They cranked out 313 home runs (second only to Chicago), led the BDBL in OPS (.841), and hit 323 doubles (second only to Charlotte.) Soon-to-be EL MVP Vlad Guerrero, Jr. (.322/.407/.635, 56 HR) led the Eck League, the BDBL, and the universe with 165.5 runs created. Joey Gallo (.214/.374/.529, 50 HR) and Xander Bogaerts (.282/.362/.509, 44 2B, 28 HR) also created more than 100 runs this season.

No fewer than thirteen Locks hit double-digit home runs this season. Think about that. There are only eight hitters in the lineup! Ryan McMahon (.281/.356/.483), Kevin Kiermaier (.298/.389/.465), Byron Buxton (.319/.385/.643), Yandy Diaz (.226/.335/.355), Wander F'ing Franco (.317/.381/.573), Carson Kelly (.255/.345/.507), and Sam Hilliard (.237/.325/.593) had big seasons at the plate. Even Danny Jansen, of all people, managed to post a .703 slugging percentage as the team's backup catcher!

In contrast to the offense, there isn't much to write about this pitching staff's performance this season. The Locks posted a 4.65 team ERA. They allowed more hits (1,485) than innings pitched (1,432). They allowed a .772 OPS to their opponents. Their bullpen blew 27 save opportunities.

Niagara's four best starting pitchers (in terms of ERA) would each be limited to eight innings in this series: Joe Ross (2.08 ERA in 34+ IP), Michael Pineda (3.21 in 67+), Pablo Lopez (3.57 in 108+) and Eric Lauer (4.56 in 118+). It seems like Ranney will have no choice but to use Jordan Montgomery (4.69 in 169) and/or Anthony Senzatela (4.90 in 163+) for usage reasons alone.

It appears to be a franchise tradition that the Chicago Black Sox are required to get off to a slow start before finishing strong. At least, it seems to happen more often than not. 2022 was no different. Chicago went just 15-13 in both Chapters One and Two, and headed into the all-star break with a .500 record, 13 games behind in the division, and seven games back in the wildcard race.

Then, something magical happened in the second half of the season. The Black Sox went an astounding 54-26 (.675) the rest of the way. They were the league's third-best franchise in the second half, behind only Akron (a ridiculous .738) and Charlotte (.688). Chicago outscored their opponents by only 10 runs in the first half, but upped that figure to +162 in the second half. That runs differential is the best in the BDBL in the second half of this season.

What happened? The short explanation is that a few key players got extremely hot in the second half. Javy Baez posted an OPS of just .768 in the first half of the season, but his second half OPS was an incredible 1.007! (A 239-point gain!) Bryce Harper was already hot in the first half (.928), but turned his dial to eleven in the second half (1.118). The same holds for Fernando Tatis, Jr. (.946 vs. 1.070). Evan Longoria posted a reasonable .767 OPS in the first half, which is in line with his MLB numbers. In the second half, he went absolutely nuts (.926).

Overall, the Black Sox scored more runs (925) than every other team in the BDBL except for Salem (964) and Niagara (938). They smashed 336 homers, which leads the league by 23. They rank third in overall OPS (.828) and lead the league with an .840 OPS against righties. Chicago's pitching staff falls into the middle of the BDBL ranking in just about every category.

Unlike Charlotte, the Black Sox relied heavily on their starting rotation, as their bullpen came up short time and again. Chicago went just 7-12 in one-run games, and 2-4 in extra innings. They ranked second (to Cleveland) in blown saves. No Chicago pitcher posted a sub-3.00 ERA with over 50 innings pitched.

Ian Anderson (10-1, 3.47 ERA in 129+ IP) posted the best numbers among the starting pitchers, although based on their MLB numbers, you'd think either Sandy Alcantara (19-9, 4.02 in 224) or Sean Manaea (17-7, 4.14 in 184+) would be the Game One starter. Taijuan Walker (10-6, 3.89 in 159+) will also likely get a start or two in this series.

Offensively, the Black Sox just missed having four players with 40+ home runs by one Kyle Schwarber bomb. Tatis (.269/.358/.649) led the league with 54 homers. Baez (.268/.337/.542, 41 HR) and Harper (.312/.406/.619, 40 HR) are the other two members of the 40 Club. Schwarber (.243/.340/.581, 39 HR) just missed. $7.5 million free agent signing A.J. Pollock (.355/.399/.674, 31 HR) earned every penny of his salary. Midseason acquisition Bryan Reynolds (.281/.362/.524, 31 HR) also earned his keep. In total, an astounding six out of the eight hitters in the Chicago lineup launched 30 or more homers this season.

Although Chicago lost the season series against Niagara, 5-7, I find it difficult to believe that Niagara's pitching could survive in a short series against this Chicago offense. Imagine two heavyweights standing toe-to-toe in the middle of the ring, pounding each other with haymaker after haymaker. That's pretty much how I see this series going.

Prediction: Chicago in seven.

Remaining predictions:

• Akron over Salem in seven.
• Charlotte over Chicago in five.
• Akron over Charlotte in six.