November, 2024

2023 Playoffs Preview

2024 has been an historic season. For the first time in our 26-year league history, seven teams finished with more than 100 wins. (Note: we have never had more than five.) And for the first time in history, one of those 100-win teams missed the postseason.

Before we move on to celebrate the playoff teams, let's take a moment to acknowledge the incredible season by the Flagstaff Peaks. Despite the fact that the Darien Blue Wave swept the preseason polling, it was Flagstaff that jumped out to an early lead in the McGowan Division, going 21-7 in Chapter One. They held on to first place through two chapters. By the all-star break, they shared the division lead with the Florida Mulligans, with Darien three games behind.

Flagstaff stumbled in Chapter Four, going just 12-12 and relinquished the division lead. But they rallied again in Chapter Five, going 20-8. Ultimately, their season came down to the final series of the season against Florida. They needed to win at least three of those four games, but came up one win short. They finished with 103 wins -- the most ever by a team that did not qualify for the postseason. Hats off to Hoss.

Three of the four Ozzie League teams that made the postseason a year ago (Los Altos, Akron, and Darien) have returned to the Tournament of Randomness this year. Only one of the Eck League playoff teams (defending EL champion Lake Norman) has returned this year.

A year ago, the Undertakers steamrolled over three teams, needing only five games in each series, to win their fifth BDBL championship, tying the Virginia Sovereigns franchise for the most franchise championships in league history. This year, they are the dead-last seed in this postseason. What a difference a year makes!

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	108-52	910	710	200	57-23	51-29	.818	.825	.815	4.14	.730	.724	.733
	96-64	929	748	181	43-37	53-27	.840	.834	.842	4.26	.716	.731	.705

The EL defending-champion Lake Norman Monsters managed to improve over the past year, winning six more games than they did in 2023, with 34 more runs scored, but with 105 more runs allowed. GM Joe Demski's biggest move of the winter was trading top prospect Jackson Merrill to the Flagstaff Peaks, along with Mark Canha, in exchange for Ketel Marte. Marte (.277/.364/.486) led the team with 103.1 runs created. Valuable setup man Ryan Pressly (9-2, 2.91 ERA in 65 IP) was also added via winter trade.

Demski made two big free-agent signings in the auction, picking up Aaron Nola (14-6, 3.53 ERA in 206+ IP) for $7 million and Brandon Nimmo (.243/.334/.385, 57.2 RC) for $7.5 million. The roster also received a boost from a pair of rookie debuts: Elly De La Cruz (.273/.356/.506 in 271 AB) and Kyle Bradish (12-10, 3.92 ERA in 176+ IP). Otherwise, the Lake Norman roster remained mostly the same as it was in their league championship season.

The Monsters were heavily-favored to not only win their division (earning 11 out of 13 votes in preseason polling), but a back-to-back EL title as well (11 out of 13). They made the pundits look smart by getting off to a 19-9 start in Chapter One. By the all-star break, they still held onto that #1 spot in the division, but by only one game ahead of the Highland Freedom.

The Freedom kept pace with the Monsters in Chapter Four, winning 17 games to Lake Norman's league-leading 18. But Highland then stumbled a bit in Chapter Five, going just 14-14, while the Monsters surged ahead at 16-12. Lake Norman then closed out the season with an astounding 22-6 record, matching the Chicago Black Sox for the best record in the final chapter.

The Monsters finished with 108 wins, which is the most in franchise history. It is only the second time this franchise has finished with 100+ wins, but also the second time in the four years since Demski took over the team in 2021.

When father and son Sylvester decided to team up in 2021, the Freedom won their third straight division title. Unfortunately for them, it was the end of an era. Several of the players that carried them to those three titles either became free agents, were traded, or fell into massive slumps, including Yoan Moncada, Carter Kieboom, C.J. Cron, Lucas Giolito, Patrick Corbin, and Trevor Bauer.

Two long 110+ loss seasons followed in 2022 and 2023 as Team Sylvester went into rebuilding mode. In 2022, they added Jesus Luzardo (15-12, 3.93 ERA in 194+ IP) and C.J. Abrams (.273/.312/.460, 86.6 RC) in trade. In 2023, they traded for Tommy Pham (.274/.340/.497, 57 RC). And this past winter, they added Mitch Garver (.316/.385/.553, 31.9), J.D. Martinez (.205/.258/.482, 19.1), Framber Valdez (14-12, 5.06 in 206+), and Marcus Semien (.322/.372/.525, 140.9) in trade. They also signed Yandy Diaz (.364/.430/.570, 138.6) as a free agent, to a whopping $12.5 million salary.

Those moves enabled the Freedom to go from a last-place, 112-loss, team to a 96-game-winning wildcard team in only one year. They had an uphill battle in their division, facing a heavily-favored Monsters team, but they stayed in the race for most of the season.

The Monsters have the best Pythagorean difference (+9) in the BDBL, thanks to the fact that they went 34-17 in one-run games and 14-3 in extra innings. They led the BDBL in those two categories. Normally, this would mean the bullpen did an outstanding job, but the Lake Norman bullpen ranked around the middle of the BDBL in blown save percentage and inherited runs scored. So I guess we'll chalk it up to either good managing, good luck, good timing, or some combination of them all.

Lake Norman owns a 9-7 advantage in head-to-head games this season. Interestingly enough, they each went 4-4 at Lake Norman, and the Freedom owns one of the best road records (53-27) in the BDBL. Maybe Lake Norman's "home-field advantage" in the Division Series really isn't one?

Prediction: Lake Norman in six.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	106-54	946	668	278	55-25	51-29	.844	.855	.841	3.84	.697	.687	.705
	87-73	765	738	27	43-37	44-36	.766	.797	.757	4.36	.740	.766	.718

Although the outcome seemed predetermined, it took a while longer than expected for Darien to get there. They swept the preseason polling with 14 out of 14 votes to win the McGowan Division. They earned 9 out of 14 votes to win the OL title, and 7 out of 14 to win it all. Despite those lofty expectations, it wasn't until Chapter Five that they managed to capture sole possession of first place. And it wasn't until the final series of the season that they secured the division title.

Darien's rise to the top isn't a one-off. They returned almost all of the star-studded lineup from their 2023 McGowan Division-winning team, including Yordan F'ing Alvarez (.263/.400/.535, 100.4 RC), Jake Burger (.254/.305/.518, 82.4), Cal Raleigh (.244/.323/.504, 78.7), and Jack Suwinski (.206/.322/.477, 72.2). They lost Mike Trout to free agency, but then signed him back this past winter at the relatively bargain salary of $10.5 million. He hit .228/.350/.482 in limited AB's (303).

The biggest pickup, by far, was the addition of Freddie Freeman in a deal with the Bear Country Jamboree this past winter. In exchange for Freeman, Darien "sacrificed" Ezequiel Tovar (.295 OBP in Colorado), Cade Marlowe (.583 OPS in 9 PAs), and Justin Turner (expensive free agent, traded for pennies.) All Freeman did for Darien was hit .352/.426/.627 with 64 doubles, 39 homers, and 182.2 runs created. If it weren't for Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Mookie Betts being in the same league, Freeman would be the runaway MVP.

Jose Altuve, a midseason gift from the Kansas Law Dogs, added yet another monster bat to the lineup in Chapter Four. In 80 games for the Blue Wave, Altuve hit .305/.371/.577 with 22 homers and 65.1 runs created.

On the pitching side, Darien's starting rotation had nearly a 100% turnover rate from 2023. Lucas Gilbert (17-7, 4.62 ERA in 208+ IP) was the only returning full-time starter. George Kirby, pitching in his first full season, went 16-9 with a 3.35 ERA in 209+ innings. Justin Steele, a family gift in 2023, went 14-13 with a 5.07 ERA in 183 innings. And rookie Andrew Abbott went 8-1 with a 3.47 ERA in just 70 innings.

The greatest gift to the Darien franchise came from Ravenswood during the winter. In exchange for Emerson Hancock, Jace Laviolette, and Tanner Houck, the Blue Wave acquired their ace, Sonny Gray. Gray tied for the BDBL lead in wins (20-3) and posted a 3.54 ERA in 201 innings.

It feels very odd to see the reigning-champion Los Altos Undertakers as the last-ranked seed in the BDBL playoffs, and yet here we are. Humble Jeff did all he could to tank it this season, but his top competition, the South Loop Furies, refused to accept his gift.

In the middle of Chapter Four, with the Undertakers and Furies battling neck-and-neck, Furies GM Bart Chinn made a sweetheart deal with Mike Ranney's Niagara Locks, acquiring not only Cy Young candidate Blake Snell, but all-star shortstop Wander Franco as well. That trade seemed to plummet poor Jeff into a fit of depression, as he then began selling off whatever pieces he could to the highest bidders.

Despite that decision...or maybe in spite of it...the Undertakers players refused to die. Los Altos kept pace with South Loop in Chapter Five, with matching 16-12 records. Los Altos finally collapsed in Chapter Six, going just 13-15. But the Furies really, really, collapsed! They somehow went 8-20 to close out the chapter, the season, and Bart Chinn's BDBL career.

Paulson made virtually no moves as GM in the winter of this year, and his only trades made during the season were to deplete this year's team in an effort to strengthen next year's. Yet, here we are with the Los Altos Undertakers partaking in yet another BDBL postseason. It is their league-record 17th division title, which means they have won nearly two-thirds of all division titles since Paulson joined this league as a young lad in 1998.

The Undertakers went just 2-6 against Darien in head-to-head matchups this year. The good news is that they didn't lose by much. They lost two of those games by just one run and one other by two runs. In years past, we have seen greater mismatches on paper that have resulted in an underdog victory. This one just seems a little too lopsided for me.

Prediction: Darien in four.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	104-56	940	731	209	49-31	55-25	.840	.866	.829	4.35	.754	.726	.770
	101-59	863	664	199	54-26	47-33	.819	.931	.789	3.86	.705	.773	.666

In preseason polling, the North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs earned the most votes to win the Griffin Division. In my Preseason Preview, I picked the Chicago Black Sox. You know what they say about broken clocks. In that preview, I wrote that GM John Gill spent so much of his budget on hitting that pitching looked like an afterthought. My first-place prediction was predicated on the assumption that he would add at least one quality pitcher before the deadline. As it turned out, he didn't need one.

Gill did acquire a quality starting pitcher at the Chapter Two deadline when he added Ranger Suarez. At least, he was supposed to be a quality pitcher. Instead, Suarez posted an ugly 5.83 ERA in 126+ innings. That wasn't Gill's biggest pickup in that chapter, however. That honor belongs to Aaron Judge, who was acquired by Chicago in exchange for Cole Young, Spencer Jones, J.J. Wetherholt, and Joc Pederson.

In 123 games for Chicago, Judge hit .252/.366/.552, with 29 home runs and 70.8 runs created. Overall, on the season, he hit 42 home runs and created 94.5 runs. That gave Chicago five batters with 94+ runs created on the season. Three of those other four players were signed at the auction last winter: Bryce Harper (135.7 RC), Matt Olson (117.4), and Kyle Schwarber (94.6). Of Chicago's top five run producers in 2024, Fernando Tatis (95.3) is the only holdover from 2023.

Chicago led the Eck League with 940 runs scored -- seven shy of the Florida Mulligan's BDBL-leading figure. The Black Sox led the BDBL with 331 home runs -- the second time in the past three seasons they have hit 330+. Five different players hit 40 or more home runs: Olson (48), Harper (42), Judge (42), Chris Morel (40), and Schwarber (40). Tatis hit 32, and Brandon Drury (28) and Willson Contreras (23) both topped 20 homers.

Gill added another starting pitcher at the Chapter Three deadline, but he was just as disastrous as Suarez. Michael Wacha posted a 5.68 ERA in 84 innings. But because Chicago scores so many runs, both Suarez (9-5) and Wacha (6-4) finished with winning records. A pair of Chicago rookies led the starting rotation: Bobby Miller (13-2, 3.19 ERA in 135+ IP) and Eury Perez (11-3, 4.15 in 84+). Domingo German (9-3, 3.99 in 112+) also contributed.

Chicago got off to a slow start in Chapter One, but then turned on the afterburners in Chapter Two, going 21-7 and opening up a seven-game lead in the division. They never looked back after that. Their record over the final two chapter (39-17, .696) was second only to their Division Series opponents, who went 40-16 (.714).

If momentum were a thing in simulation baseball, the South Philly Gritty would be sitting pretty heading into this Division Series. They not only own the best record in the EL over the final two chapters, but they are tied with the Akron Ryche for the best record in the entire league. The Gritty jumped out to an early lead in the Higuera Division and never let go. They led the Higuera Division by nine games at the all-star break and coasted into the playoffs as the first team in the BDBL to clinch their division this year.

South Philly's roster didn't need much tweaking this year. Most of the roster was carried over from 2023. Last winter, GM JD Luhning added Christian Walker (.259/.320/.509, 39 HR, 96.3 RC) and Eduardo Rodriguez (10-5, 3.93 ERA in 162+ IP) in trade. At the Chapter Three deadline, he added Clayton Kershaw (8-1, 2.78 in 94 for South Philly) and Christian Yelich (.289/.377/.460). Justin Turner (.292/.357/.539) was also added at the final trade deadline.

South Philly's strength is their pitching. They're the only team in the Eck League with an ERA (3.86) under 4.00. They also lead the Eck League with a .705 opponents OPS and the lowest blow saves percentage (19%) in the league. Chris Bassitt (12-7, 3.83 ERA in 199+ IP), Luhning's only auction signing, led the team in wins. Shane McClanahan (10-3, 2.85 in 116+), Kershaw, Andrew Heaney (10-5, 3.92 in 137+), Rodriguez, and Mike Clevinger (10-6, 4.22 in 130) formed the cobbled-together rotation. Tanner Scott (1.44 ERA in 56+), Raisel Iglesias (1.71 in 52+), and Yennier Cano (2.29 in 74+) teamed up to become an outstanding bullpen trio.

This is a series between the immovable object and the unstoppable force. South Philly's pitching doesn't allow for much movement around the bases and Chicago's offense is a force to be reckoned with. During regular season play, Chicago won five out of their eight head-to-head matchups.

Both teams pummel left-handed pitching. South Philly (.931 OPS) and Chicago (.866) rank #1 and #2 in that category. That factor would ordinarily sideline Suarez, but the problem is that Chicago doesn't have enough qualified starters to fill a rotation. Aside from Suarez, only Miller (barely) and Wacha qualifies for unlimited innings in the playoffs. German (8.2 IP) and Perez (7) are limited to one game each. Either they'll be one starter short if the series goes seven games, or one of the Miller/German pair would need to pitch three times, or Suarez will have to fill that role.

South Philly has an even tougher decision to make. Rodriguez, McClanahan, Kershaw, and Heaney -- four of their five best pitchers -- are all left-handed. They may just have to suck it up, roll the dice, and hope for the best. I don't think they have any other option.

Prediction: Chicago in six.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	102-58	849	560	289	53-27	49-31	.785	.729	.799	3.36	.656	.647	.662
	104-56	947	720	227	59-21	45-35	.849	.839	.852	4.22	.735	.723	.743

Two years ago, the Akron Ryche won the BDBL championship with a star-studded pitching staff that included Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Nestor Cortes, and Paul Quantrill, and a lineup that was carried by Ronald Acuna, Jr., Austin Riley, and Josh Bell.

Last year, nearly the same group of players carried Akron to another division title, where they ran into a buzz saw called the Los Altos Undertakers. Several of the players responsible for that 2022 championship remain on the roster this year, and have carried the team to a third-straight division title. Gerrit Cole (20-5, 2.44 ERA in 225+ IP) is still the team's pitching MVP. Burnes (18-5, 3.69 in 207+) is still a workhorse. Woodruff (5-4, 2.71 in 73) and Cortes (4-1, 2.95 in 61) have become part-timers due to injury. Newcomers Wade Miley (11-7, 3.82 in 129+) and Merrill Kelly (13-7, 4.07 in 194+) have taken up the slack.

Offensively, Acuna has turned into Barry Bonds 2.0. He has just completed one of the greatest offensive seasons ever recorded in BDBL history. He hit .387/.460/.697 overall, with 52 doubles, 46 homers, 157 runs scored, 131 RBIs, 44 stolen bases, and 216.2 runs created. That latter figure is good for fourth all-time on the leader board. The aforementioned Barry Bonds appears in spots #1 and #3.

Riley (.271/.334/.511, 37 HR, 105.8 RC) is still hanging around as well. Acuna, Riley, and Andres Gimenez (.291/.348/.454, 91.6 RC) are the only three Akron hitters with more than 80 runs created. As a whole, the Ryche rank fourth in runs created, and those three hitters make up nearly half of the entire Akron offense.

The Ryche never had much competition for the division title this year. The South Carolina Sea Cats stuck around for a bit, even tying Akron after two chapters of play. But from that point forward, Akron won 19 more games than South Carolina. They finished strong, posting a .714 winning percentage over the final two chapters, tied with the South Philly Gritty for the best record over that time span.

The Florida Mulligans weren't supposed to be here. In preseason polling, Florida didn't earn a single vote in any category. After one chapter of play, the Mulligans found ourselves tied for second place in the division, a whopping five games behind the Flagstaff Peaks. At that point, I decided to do a little Nic Weiss-style arbitrage. My first arbitrage deal was sending free-agent-to-be Trea Turner to the Peaks in exchange for Jung-hoo Lee, who promptly ran into a fence and missed the rest of the MLB season. I also traded away Jon Gray, but later replaced him with Nate Eovaldi.

After that disappointing first chapter, the Mulligans went 20-8 in Chapter Two. We headed into the all-star break tied atop the McGowan Division with the Flagstaff Peaks, with the lowly Darien Blue Wave trailing by three games. Heading into the final chapter of the season, we sat four games behind Darien and one game in front of Flagstaff.

Each and every series in Chapter Six was a nail-biter. Of course, it all came down to the final two series against Darien and Flagstaff. I managed to win three of four against the Blue Wave, which meant I only needed a split to win the wildcard spot. I won the first two games of the Flagstaff series, sending this franchise to the playoffs for the 17th time in 26 seasons.

The Mulligans thrived on offense this season. We led the entire BDBL in runs scored (947, just one more than Darien), on-base percentage (.353), and OPS (.849). Franchise players Shohei Ohtani (.311/.410/.650, 43 HR, 148 RC) and Rafael Devers (.270/.332/.501, 98.3) stepped it up after a miserable 2023. Adley Rutschman (.318/.395/.505, 127.3) crushed it in his sophomore BDBL season. Winter free agent signing Bryan Reynolds (.289/.355/.525, 114.5) has been worth every penny. And winter trade acquisition Jason Heyward (.334/.387/.587) simply never stopped hitting.

Florida's pitching was as mediocre as expected. We ranked #5 in the Ozzie League in ERA, allowed the fourth-most home runs, and ranked in the middle of the pack in almost every category. Our "ace," Ohtani, had a miserable year on the mound: 9-8, 4.64 ERA in 143+ IP. Thankfully, our bullpen picked up the slack.

Even though Florida won two more games than Akron, Akron gets the home-field advantage thanks to Florida's wildcard status. Florida won five of the eight games against Akron during the regular season. All eight games, however, were tight. Three were decided by one run, and three others were decided by two.

Prediction: Florida in seven.

Remaining predictions:

• Lake Norman over Chicago in seven.
• Darien over Florida in five.
• Darien over Lake Norman in seven.

A World Series matchup between the two kids feels like destiny.